Assessing resilience and state-transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush-steppe

1. Resilience-based approaches are increasingly being called upon to inform ecosystem management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This requires management frameworks that can assess ecosystem dynamics, both within and between alternative states, at relevant time scales. 2. We analysed long-term vegetation records from two representative sites in the North American sagebrush-steppe ecosystem, spanning nine decades, to determine if empirical patterns were consistent with resilience theory, and to determine if cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion led to thresholds as currently envisioned by expert-based state-and-transition models (STM). These data span the entire history of cheatgrass invasion at these sites and provide a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of biotic invasion on ecosystem resilience. 3. We used univariate and multivariate statistical tools to identify unique plant communities and document the magnitude, frequency and directionality of community transitions through time. Community transitions were characterized by 37-47% dissimilarity in species composition, they were not evenly distributed through time, their frequency was not correlated with precipitation, and they could not be readily attributed to fire or grazing. Instead, at both sites, the majority of community transitions occurred within an 8-10year period of increasing cheatgrass density, became infrequent after cheatgrass density peaked, and thereafter transition frequency declined. 4. Greater cheatgrass density, replacement of native species and indication of asymmetry in community transitions suggest that thresholds may have been exceeded in response to cheatgrass invasion at one site (more arid), but not at the other site (less arid). Asymmetry in the direction of community transitions also identified communities that were at-risk' of cheatgrass invasion, as well as potential restoration pathways for recovery of pre-invasion states. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results illustrate the complexities associated with threshold identification, and indicate that criteria describing the frequency, magnitude, directionality and temporal scale of community transitions may provide greater insight into resilience theory and its application for ecosystem management. These criteria are likely to vary across biogeographic regions that are susceptible to cheatgrass invasion, and necessitate more in-depth assessments of thresholds and alternative states, than currently available.

Development of a regional model for the North Indian Ocean

We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying regions for conservation of sloth bears through occupancy modelling in north-eastern Karnataka, India

In the absence of information on species in decline with contracting ranges, management should emphasize remaining populations and protection of their habitats. Threatened by anthropogenic pressure including habitat degradation and loss, sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in India have become limited in range, habitat, and population size. We identified ecological and anthropogenic determinants of occurrence within an occupancy framework to evaluate habitat suitability of non-protected regions (with sloth bears) in northeastern Karnataka, India. We employed a systematic sampling methodology to yield presence absence data to examine a priori hypotheses of determinants that affected occupancy. These covariates were broadly classified as habitat or anthropogenic factors. Mean number of termite mounds and trees positively influenced sloth bear occupancy, and grazing pressure expounded by mean number of livestock dung affected it negatively. Also, mean percentage of shrub coverage had no impact on bear inhabitance. The best fitting model further predicted habitats in Bukkasagara, Agoli, and Benakal reserved forests to have 38%, 75%, and 88%, respectively, of their sampled grid cells with high occupancies (>0.70) albeit little or no legal protection. We recommend a conservation strategy that includes protection of vegetation stand-structure, maintenance of soil moisture, and enrichment of habitat for the long-term welfare of this species.

Annual report 2005 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Fourteenth meeting, Vladivostok, Russia, September 29-October 9, 2005

Report of Opening Session (pdf 0.07 Mb) Report of Governing Council (pdf 0.2 Mb) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 0.07 Mb) Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board inter-sessional meeting (pdf 0.07 Mb) Science Board (pdf 0.1 Mb) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 0.2 Mb) Fishery Science Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 0.06 Mb) MONITOR Technical Committee (pdf 0.05 Mb) Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 0.06 Mb) Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups Section on Ecology of harmful algal blooms in the North Pacific (pdf 0.03 Mb) Section on Carbon and Climate Working Group 18 on Mariculture in the 21st century - The intersection between ecology, socio-economics and production (pdf 0.06 Mb) Working Group 19 on Ecosystem-based management science and its application to the North Pacific (pdf 0.03 Mb) Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 0.04 Mb) CFAME Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MODEL Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Advisory Panels Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf 0.04 Mb) Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (pdf 0.03 Mb) Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-Calibration experiment (pdf 0.05 Mb) Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (pdf 0.2 Mb) Membership List (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Participants (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Acronyms (pdf 0.03 Mb)

Annual report 2004 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Thirteenth meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A., October 14-24, 2004

Report of Opening Session (pdf 0.07 Mb) Report of Governing Council (pdf 0.2 Mb) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 0.08 Mb) Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board inter-sessional meeting (pdf 0.05 Mb) Science Board (pdf 0.1 Mb) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 0.1 Mb) Fishery Science Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups Harmful Algal Blooms Section (pdf 0.03 Mb) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis (pdf 0.03 Mb) Working Group 18 on Mariculture in the 21st century - The intersection between ecology, socio-economics and production (pdf 0.06 Mb) Study Group on Ecosystem-based management science and its application to the North Pacific (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 0.04 Mb) BASS Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) CFAME Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MODEL Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 0.03 Mb) REX Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Advisory Panels Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific (pdf 0.4 Mb) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf 0.03 Mb) Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (pdf 0.04 Mb) Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-Calibration experiment (pdf 0.04 Mb) Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (pdf 0.2 Mb) Membership List (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Participants (pdf 0.09 Mb) List of Acronyms (pdf 0.03 Mb)

Annual report 2003 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Twelfth meeting, Seoul, Republic of Korea, October 9-18, 2003

Report of Opening Session (pdf 58 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting (pdf 244 KB) Report of 2003 interim Governing Council meeting Tenth Anniversary PICES Organization Review Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 102 KB) 2002 Auditor's report to the Organization Review of PICES Publication Program Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board/Governing Council interim meeting (pdf 81 KB) Science Board (pdf 95 KB) Study Group on PICES Capacity Building Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 65 KB) Advisory Panel on Micronekton sampling gear intercalibration experiment Advisory Panel on Marine birds and mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 41 KB) Working Group 16 on Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 76 KB) Working Group 15 on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 70 KB) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis Advisory Panel on North Pacific Data Buoy Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 32 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 64 KB) Nemuro Experimental Planning Team (NEXT) BASS Task Team (pdf 35 KB) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team (pdf 29 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 30KB) REX Task Team (pdf 25 KB) Documenting Scientific Sessions (pdf 164 KB) List of Participants (pdf 60 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 21 KB)

Annual report 2002 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Eleventh meeting, Qingdao, People's Republic of China, October 18-16, 2002

Report of Opening Session (pdf 51 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting(pdf 136 KB) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 48 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 71 KB) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 66 KB) Working Group 14: Effective sampling of micronekton Marine Birds and Mammals Advisory Panel Fishery Science Committee (pdf 36 KB) Working Group 16: Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 39 KB) Working Group 15: Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 49 KB) North Pacific Data Buoy Advisory Panel Working Group 17: Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 29 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 43 KB) BASS Task Team (pdf 30 KB) Iron Fertilization Experiment Advisory Panel MODEL Task Team (pdf 28 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 34 KB) Summary of Continuous Plankton Recorder activities in 2002 REX Task Team (pdf 21 KB) Documenting Scientific Sessions (pdf 140 KB) List of Participants (pdf 59 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 21 KB)

Annual report 2001 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Tenth meeting, Victoria, B.C., Canada, October 5-13, 2001

Report of Opening Session (pdf 42 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting (pdf 89 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 88 KB) Study Group on North Pacific Ecosystem Status Report and Regional Analysis Center Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 57 KB) Working Group 14: Effective sampling of micronekton Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 37 KB) Working Group 16: Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 62 KB) Working Group 15: Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 34 KB) Working Group 13: CO2 in the North Pacific Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 24 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 39 KB) BASS Task Team (pdf 32 KB) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team (pdf 22 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 32 KB) Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific REX Task Team (pdf 21 KB) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 53 KB) List of Participants (pdf 67 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 13 KB)

Annual report 2000 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Ninth meeting, Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan, October 20-28, 2000

Report of Opening Session (pdf 42 KB) Report of Governing Council Meetings (pdf 70 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 57 KB) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 43 KB) Working Group 14: Effective Sampling of Micronekton Advisory Panel on Marine birds and mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 31 KB) Working Group 16 on Implications of Climate change to Fisheries Management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 47 KB) Working Group 8: Practical Assessment Methodology Working Group 15 on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 41 KB) Working Group 13: CO2 in the North Pacific Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 120 KB) BASS Task Team Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team MONITOR Task Team Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific REX Task Team Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 24 KB) Finance and Administration: Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 49 KB) Assets on 31st of December, 1999 Income and Expenditures for 1999 Budget for 2001 Report of the Fund-Raising Committee (pdf 20 KB) Composition of the Organization (pdf 27 KB) List of Participants (pdf 94 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 13 KB)

Annual report 1999 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Eighth meeting, Vladivostok, Russia, October 8-17, 1999

Report of Opening Session (pdf 124 KB) Report of Governing Council Meetings (pdf 67 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 56 KB) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 27 KB) Fishery Science Committee (pdf 53 KB) Working Group 12: Crabs and Shrimps Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 92 KB) Working Group 8: Practical Assessment Methodology Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 64 KB) Working Group 13: CO2 in the North Pacific Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 51 KB) Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 31 KB) Publication Committee (pdf 21) Finance and Administration: Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 40 KB) Assets on 31st of December, 1998 Income and Expenditures for 1998 Budget for 2000 Composition of the Organization (pdf 27 KB) List of Participants (pdf 94 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 13 KB)

Annual report 1998 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Seventh meeting, Fairbanks, Alaska, U.S.A., October 14-25, 1998

Report of Opening Session (pdf 68 KB) Report of Governing Council Meetings (pdf 61 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 56 KB) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 64 KB) Working Group 14: Effective sampling of micronekton to estimate ecosystem carrying capacity Working Group 11: Consumption of Marine Resources by Marine Birds and Mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 55 KB) Working Group 12: Crabs and Shrimps Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 104 KB) Working Group 8: Practical Assessment Methodology Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 44KB) Working Group 13: CO2 in the North Pacific Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 37 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 54 KB) Finance and Administration: Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 31 KB) Assets on 31st of December, 1997 Income and Expenditures for 1997 Budget for 1999 Composition of the Organization (pdf 27 KB) List of Participants (pdf 48 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 13 KB)