Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

A home environment test battery for status assessment in patients with motor fluctuations

Background and aims Evaluating status in patients with motor fluctuations is complex and occasional observations/measurements do not give an adequate picture as to the time spent in different states. We developed a test battery to assess advanced Parkinson patients' status consisting of diary assessments and motor tests. This battery was constructed and implemented on a handheld computer with built-in mobile communication. In fluctuating patients, it should typically be used several times daily in the home environment, over periods of about one week. The aim of this battery is to provide status information in order to evaluate treatment effects in clinical practice and research, follow up treatments and disease progression and predict outcome to optimize treatment strategy. Methods Selection of diary questions was based on a previous study with Duodopa® (DIREQT). Tapping tests (with and without visual cueing) and a spiral drawing test were added. Rapid prototyping was used in development of the user interface. An evaluation with two pilot patients was performed before and after receiving new treatments for advanced disease (one received Duodopa® and one received DBS). Speed and proportion missed taps were calculated for the tapping tests and entropy of the radial drawing velocity was calculated for the spiral tests. Test variables were evaluated using non-parametric statistics. Results Post-treatment improvement was detected in both patients in many of the test variables. Conclusions Although validation work remains, preliminary results are promising and the test battery is currently being evaluated in a long-term health economics study with Duodopa® (DAPHNE).

Análise morfométrica da parede arterial após o implante de stent em aorta abdominal de suínos : estudo comparativo entre stents metálicos não recobertos e recobertos com politetrafluoroetileno

O espessamento intimal e a reestenose que ocorrem após os procedimentos de angioplastia transluminal percutânea e/ou o implante de stents representam uma causa freqüente de falência destes procedimentos. O principal achado patológico responsável pela reestenose parece ser a hiperplasia intimal, já que o dispositivo intravascular é resistente ao remodelamento arterial geométrico. O propósito deste estudo é avaliar, através da morfometria digital, o espessamento intimal presente nas regiões da parede arterial imediatamente proximal e distal ao implante de um stent metálico em configuração em “Z “ não recoberto ou recoberto com PTFE. Vinte e cinco suínos de raça mista, com seis a dez semanas de idade, pesando em média 20 kg foram divididos em três grupos. No grupo I, cinco animais foram submetidos à exposição cirúrgica retroperitoneal da aorta abdominal, aortotomia e manipulação com uma bainha introdutora de 12 F. O grupo II incluiu dez animais que foram submetidos ao implante de um stent metálico auto-expansível não recoberto. No grupo III, incluindo também dez animais, foram implantados stents recobertos com PTFE. Após quatro semanas, todos os animais foram sacrificados e o segmento aorto-ilíaco foi removido. Quatro animais foram excluídos do estudo por trombose da aorta (um animal do grupo II e três animais do grupo III). Para a análise morfométrica foram utilizados os testes não paramétricos de Wilcoxon e de Kruskal-Wallis, para as comparações, respectivamente, no mesmo grupo e entre os grupos. Foi adotado o nível de significância de 5% ( p< 0,05). Quando os espécimes da parede arterial, imediatamente proximal e distal aos stents foram comparados, nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significativa foi encontrada entre as áreas luminal, intimal, média ou índice intimal em cada grupo. Na comparação entre os grupos, as áreas intimal, média e o índice intimal não demonstraram variação estatisticamente significativa. Foram identificadas diferenças entre os grupos quanto às áreas luminais proximais (p = 0,036) e distais (p=0,044). Pelo teste de comparações múltiplas para Kruskal-Wallis (Teste de Dunn) identificou-se diferença significativa entre os grupos I e II. Entretanto, quando estas variáveis foram controladas pelo fator peso (relação área luminal/peso) a diferença não foi mais observada. Concluímos que, após quatro semanas, stents recobertos com PTFE induzem um espessamento intimal justa-stent similar ao observado com stents não recobertos ou com a simples manipulação arterial com uma bainha introdutora. Neste modelo experimental suíno, de curto seguimento, o revestimento com PTFE não foi responsável por adicional espessamento intimal.

Análise comparativa de preços: estudo de variáveis influentes na percepção de vantagem de compra

Essa dissertação trata de algumas variáveis que podem influenciar a percepção dos consumidores no contexto de análises comparativas de preços durante o processo de compra. As variáveis estudadas foram: a forma de apresentação das ofertas dos produtos, a escolaridade dos participantes do estudo e a familiaridade para com o uso do produto. A importância desse estudo está fundamentada na necessidade de entendimento de como a percepção de vantagem na aquisição de produtos ocorre na presença das variáveis de influência estudadas, com o propósito prático de aplicação dos resultados no mercado varejista. A pesquisa foi realizada por meio de um estudo empírico, na cidade de São Luís ¿ MA, utilizando uma amostra de cento e noventa e duas pessoas, divididas igualmente entre estudantes de escolaridade média e superior. Os participantes do estudo avaliaram situações de compra em cenários fictícios com formas de apresentação de ofertas distintas, em que a percepção de vantagem foi avaliada em função das escolaridades e das familiaridades utilizadas no estudo. A base teórica para desenvolvimento do trabalho considerou a Teoria dos Prospectos de Kahneman e Tversky (1979) e a Teoria da Contabilidade Mental de Thaler (1985). Em função da natureza da base de dados foram utilizados testes não-paramétricos de Friedman, Kruskal-Wallis, Wilcoxon e Mann-Withney. Os resultados obtidos confirmaram as hipóteses levantadas e geraram subsídios para pesquisa futura envolvendo o aspecto familiaridade relacionada às marcas. Palavras-chave: contabilidade mental, percepção, preço de referência.

O impacto das práticas ITIL na flexibilidade organizacional - evidências empíricas em uma empresa multinacional de TI

The present work has as main objective the identification and impact analysis for the practice ITIL in the organizational flexibility of a multinational IT company, being this study of quali-quantitative and exploratory nature. To achieve this objective, some theoretical studies on bureaucracy, organization flexibility, control, IT governance and ITIL were done, as a form to better understand the research problem. For analysis effect a set of eleven ITIL process was considered in this research ¿ service desk, incident management, problem management, change management, configuration management, release management, service level management, availability management, capacity management, continuity management and finally IT financial services management ¿ grouped in its two core areas ¿ service support and service delivery. Then a scale was constructed and validated, on the basis of theoretical models developed by Volberda (1997), Tenório (2002) and Golden and Powell (1999), to measure the flexibility related to each process comprising the ITIL core. The dimensions adopted to measure flexibility were: organization design task, managerial task, IT impact on work force, HR management, efficiency impact, sensitivity, versatility and robustness. The instrument used in research was a semi-structured interview, which was divided in two parts. The data collection was performed with ten interviewed people from an IT multinational company, based on convenience, some were managers and there were users, some were ITIL certified and others not. The statistic tests of t student and Wilcoxon non-parametric were adopted. The result of the research indicated that the ITIL service support area, for possessing greater operational focus, presents flexibility trend. The opposite was found for the service delivery area, which has greater tactical focus. The results also suggest that the change management discipline was the one that contributed for the most flexibility inside the company, followed by incident management discipline and the service desk function.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Feeding non-preference by Spodoptera frugiperda and Spodoptera eridania on tomato genotypes

Lagartas do gênero Spodoptera spp. são altamente polífagas, podendo causar danos econômicos em diversas culturas agrícolas. em vista de sua emergente importância na cultura do tomate, principalmente o destinado à indústria, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a não preferência, para alimentação, de lagartas de Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith, 1797) e Spodoptera eridania (Cramer, 1782) por genótipos de tomateiro, e classificá-los quanto aos graus de resistência. Como padrão susceptível, utilizou-se o cultivar comercial Santa Clara e, como resistente, a linhagem PI 134417, sendo avaliadas, ainda, as linhagens PI 134418, PI 126931, LA 462 e LA 716. Realizaram-se testes de não preferência, para alimentação, com e sem chance de escolha, avaliando-se a atratividade dos genótipos de tomateiro para as lagartas, em tempos pré-estabelecidos após sua liberação, além da massa foliar consumida. em geral, os genótipos LA 716 e PI 126931 foram os menos atrativos para a S. frugiperda, enquanto Santa Clara foi o mais atrativo e consumido. Quanto a S. eridania, os genótipos PI 126931, LA 462, LA 716 e PI 134418 foram os menos preferidos, para a alimentação, pelas lagartas, e Santa Clara e PI 134417 foram os mais atrativos e consumidos. Os genótipos LA e PI 126931 são moderadamente resistentes, do tipo não preferência para alimentação, para a S. frugiperda e S. eridania; PI 134418 e LA 462 são moderadamente resistentes a S. eridania; PI 134417 é susceptível a S. frugiperda e S. eridania; Santa Clara é altamente susceptível a S. frugiperda e S. eridania.

Metodologia estatística na solução do problema do caixeiro viajante e na avaliação de algoritmos : um estudo aplicado à transgenética computacional

The problems of combinatory optimization have involved a large number of researchers in search of approximative solutions for them, since it is generally accepted that they are unsolvable in polynomial time. Initially, these solutions were focused on heuristics. Currently, metaheuristics are used more for this task, especially those based on evolutionary algorithms. The two main contributions of this work are: the creation of what is called an -Operon- heuristic, for the construction of the information chains necessary for the implementation of transgenetic (evolutionary) algorithms, mainly using statistical methodology - the Cluster Analysis and the Principal Component Analysis; and the utilization of statistical analyses that are adequate for the evaluation of the performance of the algorithms that are developed to solve these problems. The aim of the Operon is to construct good quality dynamic information chains to promote an -intelligent- search in the space of solutions. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is intended for applications based on a transgenetic algorithmic known as ProtoG. A strategy is also proposed for the renovation of part of the chromosome population indicated by adopting a minimum limit in the coefficient of variation of the adequation function of the individuals, with calculations based on the population. Statistical methodology is used for the evaluation of the performance of four algorithms, as follows: the proposed ProtoG, two memetic algorithms and a Simulated Annealing algorithm. Three performance analyses of these algorithms are proposed. The first is accomplished through the Logistic Regression, based on the probability of finding an optimal solution for a TSP instance by the algorithm being tested. The second is accomplished through Survival Analysis, based on a probability of the time observed for its execution until an optimal solution is achieved. The third is accomplished by means of a non-parametric Analysis of Variance, considering the Percent Error of the Solution (PES) obtained by the percentage in which the solution found exceeds the best solution available in the literature. Six experiments have been conducted applied to sixty-one instances of Euclidean TSP with sizes of up to 1,655 cities. The first two experiments deal with the adjustments of four parameters used in the ProtoG algorithm in an attempt to improve its performance. The last four have been undertaken to evaluate the performance of the ProtoG in comparison to the three algorithms adopted. For these sixty-one instances, it has been concluded on the grounds of statistical tests that there is evidence that the ProtoG performs better than these three algorithms in fifty instances. In addition, for the thirty-six instances considered in the last three trials in which the performance of the algorithms was evaluated through PES, it was observed that the PES average obtained with the ProtoG was less than 1% in almost half of these instances, having reached the greatest average for one instance of 1,173 cities, with an PES average equal to 3.52%. Therefore, the ProtoG can be considered a competitive algorithm for solving the TSP, since it is not rare in the literature find PESs averages greater than 10% to be reported for instances of this size.

Evaluation of the Cartographic Communication Performance of a Route Guidance and Navigation System

This study evaluates the influence of different cartographic representations of in-car navigation systems on visual demand, subjective preference, and navigational error. It takes into account the type and complexity of the representation, maneuvering complexity, road layout, and driver gender. A group of 28 drivers (14 male and 14 female) participated in this experiment which was performed in a low-cost driving simulator. The tests were performed on a limited number of instances for each type of representation, and their purpose was to carry out a preliminary assessment and provide future avenues for further studies. Data collected for the visual demand study were analyzed using non-parametric statistical analyses. Results confirmed previous research that showed that different levels of design complexity significantly influence visual demand. Non-grid-like road networks, for example, influence significantly visual demand and navigational error. An analysis of simple maneuvers on a grid-like road network showed that static and blinking arrows did not present significant differences. From the set of representations analyzed to assess visual demand, both arrows were equally efficient. From a gender perspective, women seem to took at the display more than men, but this factor was not significant. With respect to subjective preferences, drivers prefer representations with mimetic landmarks when they perform straight-ahead tasks. For maneuvering tasks, landmarks in a perspective model created higher visual demands.

Mutagenicity and genotoxicity of isatin in mammalian cells in vivo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Imunoexpressão da IL-17 e RORγt em carcinomas de células escamosas de lábio e língua

Th17 cells have been strongly associated to the pathogenesis of inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, although their influence on the carcinogenesis is still little known, there are reports of anti-tumor and protumoral actions. The objective of this study is to research the presence of Th17 lineage in lip and tongue SCC, using the analysis of the immunoexpression of IL-17 and RORγt, relating this immunoexpression with clinical and morphological findings in the attempt to better comprehend the role of these cells on the tumoral immunity of OSCCs. The results were submitted to non-parametric statistical tests with significance level of 5%. On the histomorphological analysis, it was observed the predominance of low level lesions on lip and high level lesions on tongue (p=0,024). It was not observed statistical significance between clinical stage and histological gradation of malignancy (p=0,644). For the immunohistochemical study, 5 random fields with greater immunoreactivity of the peritumoral inflammatory infiltrate were photomicrographed on the 400x magnification. It was done the count of lymphocytes which showed cytoplasmic and pericytoplasmic staining for the IL-17 cytokine as well as nuclear and cytoplasmic staining for RORγt. It was observed statistical significance difference on the quantity of immunopositive lymphocytes to IL-17 between the groups of SCC of lip and tongue (p=0,028). For the RORγt it was not observed statistical significance difference between the groups of SCC of lip and tongue (p=0,915). It was not observed statistical difference between the immunostaining of IL-17 and RORγt with histological gradation of malignancy and clinical staging. The findings of this research suggest a possible anti-tumor role of IL-17 for cases of lip. The results of the analysis of the RORγt are possibly due to the wide duality of the anti-tumor and protumoral role of the Th17 cells and their plasticity which, in the presence of different cytokines expressed on the tumor microenvironment, can alter its phenotype.

Estimação de parâmetros genéticos para resistência à infecção por IMNV em camarões Litopenaeus vannamei por meio de análise de sobrevivência

The main specie of marine shrimp raised at Brazil and in the world is Litopenaeus vannamei, which had arrived in Brazil in the `80s. However, the entry of infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), causing the infectious myonecrosis disease in marine shrimps, brought economic losses to the national shrimp farming, with up to 70% of mortality in the shrimp production. In this way, the objective was to evaluate the survival of shrimps Litopenaeus vannamei infected with IMNV using the non parametric estimator of Kaplan-Meier and a model of frailty for grouped data. It were conducted three tests of viral challenges lasting 20 days each, at different periods of the year, keeping the parameters of pH, temperature, oxygen and ammonia monitored daily. It was evaluated 60 full-sib families of L. vannamei infected by IMNV in each viral challenge. The confirmation of the infection by IMNV was performed using the technique of PCR in real time through Sybr Green dye. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimator it was possible to detect significant differences (p <0.0001) between the survival curves of families and tanks and also in the joint analysis between viral challenges. It were estimated in each challenge, genetic parameters such as genetic value of family, it`s respective rate risk (frailty), and heritability in the logarithmic scale through the frailty model for grouped data. The heritability estimates were respectively 0.59; 0.36; and 0.59 in the viral challenges 1; 2; and 3, and it was also possible to identify families that have lower and higher rates of risk for the disease. These results can be used for selecting families more resistant to the IMNV infection and to include characteristic of disease resistance in L. vannamei into the genetic improvement programs

Indicadores da resposta ao estresse agudo associados com a familiaridade ao ambiente e aos procedimentos de banho e tosa em cães (Canis familiaris) da raça poodle

The stress responses can be parameters used in order to identify the welfare of animals. Behavior parameters can also be regarded as means to identify their relation to stressing situations. In this study, adult male and female poodle dogs, accustomed (group 1) or not (group 2) to the environment of a bath and grooming salon were analyzed through the plasmatic concentration of cortisol, cell counting of the immune system (total leukocytes and percentage of neutrophils and lymphocytes) and through observation of changes in behavior before and after the bath and grooming service. After arriving at the kennel, the dogs were taken to the bath and grooming facility, where they had their blood samples taken and were observed for ten minutes. The subsequent procedures consisted of the bath and grooming services and the collection of another blood samples. The research results were analyzed through non-parametric statistic tests and p < 0.05. Accustomed and non-accustomed dogs presented different hormonal and behavior responses: accustomed dogs presented an increasing of the cortisol level at the second blood samples collection, thus indicating stress towards the aforementioned procedures and presenting behavior responses which can be described as moderated stress. Non-accustomed dogs presented the same cortisol levels in both first and second samples suggesting that they were already reacting to the new environment. Dogs also shown behavioral responses which can be described as acute stress. Both male and female dogs showed similar immunological changes as well as different endocrine and behavioral profiles. Concerning aggression, this study demonstrates that biting the owner can be a predicting behavior of aggression during the bath and grooming service, male dogs were more aggressive than the female, and that males were more reactive to unknown caretaker. The results of this research propose that the familiarization of the animal with the bath and grooming environment and caretaker is important to the welfare of poodle dogs, especially to that of male dogs

Adaptação e validação da escala de dependência de exercício físico em versão tradicional e informatizada

While providing physical and psychological benefits, excessive exercise could be or cause a compulsive behavior, making the individual dependent on it. In a parallel discussion, computerized psychological instruments, for a hand, reflects the development of information technology and your applicability to other areas, but also shows little advance for Psychological Assessment. In this perspective, this study aims to adapt the Exercise Dependence Scale (EDS-R) in two formats (paper-and-pencil and computerized) and evaluate evidence of factorial and convergent validity, and reliability of each version and compare them with each other. It is also proposed to observe the relationship of some bio-demographic (Sex, age, frequency, duration and intensity of practice exercise) and the exercise dependence (DEF). For this purpose, 709 regular physical activity practitioners, selected by procedures non-probabilistic sampling, responded a adapted version of EDS-R, Muscle Appearance Satisfaction Scale (MASS), Body Modification Scale (BMS) and a demographic questionnaire, analyzed through Exploratory Factor Analysis, Cronbach's Alpha and not parametric tests. Both the traditional version and the computer showed a seven factors structure, explaining 57 and 62% of the variance, respectively, and Cronbach's alphas of 0.83 and 0.89. Factors were: (1) intentionality, (2) continuity, (3) tolerance, (4) reduction of other activities, (5) lack of control, (6) abstinence and (7) time spent on exercise. Relationships were observed between the Exercise Dependence and the variables: age, diets, consumption of food supplements and medicines for weight change, desire to do plastic surgery and body satisfaction. We observed also a positive correlation between the DEF and the frequency, duration and intensity of exercise, and the factor "Dependence on exercising" from MASS, indicating convergent validity of the EDS-R. Finally, comparisons between the two formats were equivalent, with few changes: computerized version achieved higher DEF scores. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the EDS-R has factorial and convergent validity, reliability, to measure exerceise dependence on traditional e computerized formats. DEF is related to actions used to body modification and behaviors toward exercise. Finally, it was found equivalence between the formats, especially in psychometric parameters, thus suggesting feasibility of a computerized assessment. However, it was observed that the computerized data has sample recruiting strategies more limited

Efeitos da isoflavona sobre os sintomas climatéricos e o perfil lipídico na mulher em menopausa

OBJETIVO: avaliar os efeitos da isoflavona, do gérmen da soja, sobre os sintomas climatéricos e o perfil lipídico na mulher em menopausa. MÉTODOS: foi conduzido estudo prospectivo, com 50 mulheres em menopausa, divididas em: G1, usuárias de isoflavona (60 mg/dia) (n=25), e G2, placebo (n=25). Os critérios de inclusão foram FSH >40 mUI/mL e presença de fogachos. Foram excluídas as vegetarianas, fumantes, asiáticas, portadoras de doenças gastrointestinais e usuárias de terapia de reposição hormonal. No seguimento, de seis meses, foram obtidos o índice menopausal de Kupperman (IMK), o perfil hormonal e o lipídico. Na análise estatística, empregaram-se ANOVA, o teste t pareado e as provas não paramétricas de Wilcoxon e Mann-Whitney. RESULTADOS: os valores medianos do IMK, inicialmente iguais entre os grupos (IMK = 20), reduziram-se nas usuárias de isoflavona aos 2 e 4 meses (IMK = 14 e 9, respectivamente) e no grupo controle, apenas aos 2 meses (IMK = 15) (p<0,01). Ao final do estudo, a isoflavona foi superior ao placebo na redução dos fogachos (44% versus 12%, respectivamente). Aos seis meses, verificou-se que os valores médios de estradiol foram superiores no G1 quando comparados ao G2 (18,0 ± 6,7 versus 12,3 ± 3,8 ng/dL) (p<0,05), sem alterações no FSH e LH. Entre as usuárias de isoflavona, houve redução de 11,8% no LDL (de 151,5 ± 39,2 para 133,6 ± 26,4 mg/dL) e elevação de 27,3% no HDL (de 44,0 ± 11,3 para 56,0 ± 11,9 mg/dL) (p<0,05). CONCLUSÕES: a isoflavona, do gérmen da soja, induziu efeitos favoráveis sobre os sintomas climatéricos e o perfil lipídico, revelando-se opção interessante como terapêutica alternativa para mulheres em menopausa.