Evacuation modelling analysis within the operational research context: a combined approach for improving enclosure designs

Evacuation models have been playing an important function in the transition process from prescriptive fire safety codes to performance-based ones over the last three decades. In fact, such models became also useful tools in different tasks within fire safety engineering field, such as fire risks assessment and fire investigation. However, there are some difficulties in this process when using these models. For instance, during the evacuation modelling analysis, a common problem faced by fire safety engineers concerns the number of simulations which needs to be performed. In other terms, which fire designs (i.e., scenarios) should be investigated using the evacuation models? This type of question becomes more complex when specific issues such as the optimal positioning of exits within an arbitrarily structure needs to be addressed. Therefore, this paper presents a methodology which combines the use of evacuation models with numerical techniques used in the operational research field, such as Design of Experiments (DoE), Response Surface Models (RSM) and the numerical optimisation techniques. The methodology here presented is restricted to evacuation modelling analysis, nevertheless this same concept can be extended to fire modelling analysis.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

The influence of gender in the direction of Spanish cooperative societies on profitability and indebtedness: an empirical analysis

In this paper the claim for the market for a new business management to ensure the presence of women in decision -making to respond to new social needs addressed. Thus, this paper analyzes the influence of gender diversity of the directors on the profitability and the level of debt for a sample of 5,199 Spanish cooperatives. Unlike capitalist societies, these organizations have a number of peculiarities in their government, and that the partners are themselves major time, agents and customers. The study focuses on the Spanish context, where there is an open debate on the importance of women's business management, as in other countries, driven by the proliferation of legislation on gender equality, being, in addition, Spain, the pioneer in having specific legislation on Social Economy. The results show that cooperatives with greater female representation in theirs Boards have higher profitability. On the other hand, those Boards with a higher percentage of women show a lower level of indebtedness.

Determining factors of the innovative behavior of cooperatives: an analysis of the case of Castilla y León

Cooperatives have a long historical experience in the Spanish economy and have demonstrated their ability to compete against traditional firms in the market. To maintain this capability, while taking advantage of the competitive advantages associated with their idiosyncrasies as social economy enterprises, they should take into consideration that the economy is increasingly globalized and increasingly knowledge-based, especially with regards to technological content. As a consequence, the innovative capacity appears to be a key aspect in order to be able to challenge competitors. This article characterizes the innovative behavior of cooperatives in the region of Castile and Leon and analyses the internal and external factors affecting their innovative performance, based on data from a survey of 581 cooperatives. The results of the empirical analysis, which is performed by multivariate binary logistic regression on various types of innovation, lead us to identify the size of the organizations, the existence of planning, the R & D activities and the human capital as the main determining factors.

The challenge of patients’ unmet palliative care needs in the final stages of chronic illness.

Background: There is consensus in the literature that the end of life care for patients with chronic illness is suboptimal, but research on the specific needs of this population is limited. Aim: This study aimed to use a mixed methodology and case study approach to explore the palliative care needs of patients with a non-cancer diagnosis from the perspectives of the patient, their significant other and the clinical team responsible for their care. Patients (n 18) had a diagnosis of either end-stage heart failure, renal failure or respiratory disease. Methods: The Short Form 36 and Hospital and Anxiety and Depression Questionnaire were completed by all patients. Unstructured interviews were (n 35) were conducted separately with each patient and then their significant other. These were followed by a focus group discussion (n 18) with the multiprofessional clinical team. Quantitative data were analysed using simple descriptive statistics and simple descriptive statistics. All qualitative data were taped, transcribed and analysed using Colaizzi’s approach to qualitative analysis. Findings: Deteriorating health status was the central theme derived from this analysis. It led to decreased independence, social isolation and family burden. These problems were mitigated by the limited resources at the individual’s disposal and the availability of support from hospital and community services. Generally resources and support were perceived as lacking. All participants in this study expressed concerns regarding the patients’ future and some patients described feelings of depression or acceptance of the inevitability of imminent death. Conclusion: Patients dying from chronic illness in this study had many concerns and unmet clinical needs. Care teams were frustrated by the lack of resources available to them and admitted they were ill-equipped to provide for the individual’s holistic needs. Some clinicians described difficulty in talking openly with the patient and family regarding the palliative nature of their treatment. An earlier and more effective implementation of the palliative care approach is necessary if the needs of patients in the final stages of chronic illness are to be adequately addressed. Pa

Predictors of attitudes toward inclusion of students with special educational needs in future education professionals

One of the main pillars in the development of inclusive schools is the initial teacher training. Before determining if it is necessary to make changes (and of what type) in training programs or curriculum guides related to the attention to diversity and inclusive education, the attitudes of future education professionals in this area should be analyzed. This includes the identification of the relevant predictors of inclusive attitudes. The research reported in this article pursued this objective, doing so with a quantitative survey methodology based on the use of cross-sectional structured data collection and statistical analyses related to the quality of the attitude questionnaire (factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha), descriptive statistics, correlations, hypothesis tests for difference of means, and regression analysis in order to predict attitudes towards inclusion in education. Firstly, the results show that the participants held very positive attitudes toward the inclusion of students with special educational needs. Particularly, older respondents, those with a longer training and, to a lesser extent, women and those who had been in touch with disabled people stood out within this attitude. Secondly, it is evidenced that self-transcendence values ​and, more weakly, contact, function as robust predictors of attitudes of future practitioners towards the inclusion of students with special needs. Some applications for the initial professionalization of educators are suggested in the discussion.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Performance Analysis of Novel Randomly Shifted Certification Authority Authentication Protocol for MANETs

The provision of security in mobile ad hoc networks is of paramount importance due to their wireless nature. However, when conducting research into security protocols for ad hoc networks it is necessary to consider these in the context of the overall system. For example, communicational delay associated with the underlying MAC layer needs to be taken into account. Nodes in mobile ad hoc networks must strictly obey the rules of the underlying MAC when transmitting security-related messages while still maintaining a certain quality of service. In this paper a novel authentication protocol, RASCAAL, is described and its performance is analysed by investigating both the communicational-related effects of the underlying IEEE 802.11 MAC and the computational-related effects of the cryptographic algorithms employed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, RASCAAL is the first authentication protocol which proposes the concept of dynamically formed short-lived random clusters with no prior knowledge of the cluster head. The performance analysis demonstrates that the communication losses outweigh the computation losses with respect to energy and delay. MAC-related communicational effects account for 99% of the total delay and total energy consumption incurred by the RASCAAL protocol. The results also show that a saving in communicational energy of up to 12.5% can be achieved by changing the status of the wireless nodes during the course of operation. Copyright (C) 2009 G. A. Safdar and M. P. O'Neill (nee McLoone).

Teaching and learning technologies in Higher Education: Applied behaviour analysis and autism.

Professionals on both international and national levels who work with children with autism are expressing the need for graduate-level training in applied behaviour analysis. The implementation of effective instruction in higher education for professionals working with children with autism and their families is a complex undertaking: the learner needs to acquire an understanding of the principles and procedures of applied behaviour analysis and also adapt this knowledge to the learning prerequisites of individuals with autism. In this paper we outline some current thinking about adult education and blended learning technologies and then describe and illustrate with examples emerging possibilities of multimedia technology in the development of teaching materials. We conclude that synergies between graduate-level curriculum requirements, knowledge of adult learning, and communication technology are necessary to establish comprehensive learning environments for professionals who specialize in autism intervention.

Towards Charity Accountability: Narrowing the gap between provision and needs?

Although charities currently play a rich and varied role in modern society, their continued success is dependent upon the public's trust. With respect to charity accountability, two key questions emerge: to whom is a charity accountable; and what form should that account take? Despite the widespread acceptance that charities should discharge accountability, there is limited knowledge of the relative importance of different stakeholder groups and whether the information currently being disclosed meets their needs. Using extensive document analysis and a survey of stakeholders, this research explores these issues in the context of the top 100 UK fundraising charities. Furthermore, it compares the results with much earlier research to identify changes over time.

Assessment Method for a Power Analysis to Identify Differentially Expressed Pathways

Gene expression data can provide a very rich source of information for elucidating the biological function on the pathway level if the experimental design considers the needs of the statistical analysis methods. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of statistical methods for detecting the differentially expression of pathways (DEP). In contrast to many other studies conducted so far, we use three novel simulation types, producing a more realistic correlation structure than previous simulation methods. This includes also the generation of surrogate data from two large-scale microarray experiments from prostate cancer and ALL. As a result from our comprehensive analysis of 41,004 parameter configurations, we find that each method should only be applied if certain conditions of the data from a pathway are met. Further, we provide method-specific estimates for the optimal sample size for microarray experiments aiming to identify DEP in order to avoid an underpowered design. Our study highlights the sensitivity of the studied methods on the parameters of the system. © 2012 Tripahti and Emmert-Streib.

Association analysis of proopiomelanocortin (POMC) haplotypes in type 1 diabetes in a UK population

Aim

To assess the association of POMC haplotype-tagged single nucleotide polymorphisms (htSNPs) with the development of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in a Caucasian population.

Methods

All exons, intron 1, and approximately 6-kb upstream and 3-kb downstream of the POMC gene were bidirectionally resequenced to identify DNA polymorphisms in 30 individuals. Allele frequencies were determined (60 chromosomes) and efficient htSNPs were selected using the htSNP2 programme. Genotyping was performed in 390 cases, 339 controls and 245 T1D parent-offspring trios, using Taqman, Sequenom and direct-sequencing technologies.

Results

Thirteen polymorphisms (two novel) with a minor allele frequency greater than 1% were identified. Six POMC htSNPs (rs3754863 G>A, ss161151662 A>G, rs3754860 C>T, rs1009388 G>C, rs3769671 A>C, rs1042571 G>A) were identified. Allele and haplotype frequencies were similar between case and control groups (P>0.60 by permutation test), and assessment of allele transmission distortion from informative parents to affected offspring also failed to find any association. Stratification of these analyses for age-at-onset and HLA-DR risk group (DR3/DR4) revealed no significant associations. A haplotype block of 9.86-kb from rs3754863 to rs1042571 was identified, encompassing the POMC gene. Comparison of haplotype frequencies identified the GGCGAG haplotype as protective against T1D in 12.9% of cases vs. 18.3% of controls: ?2=8.18, Pc=0.03 by permutation test.

Conclusion

The POMC SNP haplotype GGCGAG may have a protective effect against T1D in the UK population. However, this finding needs to be replicated, and the cellular and molecular processes influenced by this POMC haplotype determined to fully appreciate its impact.

Palliative care nursing in rural and urban community settings:A comparative analysis

Nurses have key roles in the coordination and delivery of community-based palliative care. The purpose of this study was to examine the differences between rural and urban community nurses' delivery of palliative care services. A survey was distributed to 277 nurses employed by a community agency in Ontario, Canada, and a 60% response rate was obtained. Nurses reported spending 27% of their time providing palliative care. Rural and urban nurses had similar roles in palliative care but rural nurses spent more time travelling and were more confident in their ability to provide palliative care. Both groups of nurses reported moderate job satisfaction and moderate satisfaction with the level of interdisciplinary collaboration in their practice. Several barriers to and facilitators of optimal palliative care provision were identified. The study results provide information about the needs of nurses that practise in these settings and may provide a basis for the development of strategies to address these needs.

Experiences and needs of bereaved carers during palliative and end-of-life care for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This study explored the experiences of palliative care that bereaved carers had while providing care to a dying loved one with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Method: Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with nine carers whohad lost a loved one in the preceding 6 to 24 months.These interviews explored levels of satisfaction with disease management, symptom management, and end-of-life care. With permission, interviews were tape recorded, transcribed, and subjected to content analysis.

Findings: Three themes emerged from the data: the impact of the caring experience, the lack of support services, and end-of-life and bereavement support. Carers experienced carer burden, lack of access to support services, a need for palliative care, and bereavement support.

Conclusion: The findings provide a first insight into the experiences of carers of patients with advanced COPD. Bereaved carers of patients who had suffered advanced COPD reported that they had received inadequate support and had a range of unmet palliative care needs. Special attention should be paid to educating and supporting carers during their caring and bereavement periods to ensure that their quality of life is maintained or enhanced

Towards Utilizing Model-Driven Engineering of Composite Applications for Business Performance Analysis

Composite Applications on top of SAPs implementation of SOA (Enterprise SOA) enable the extension of already existing business logic. In this paper we show, based on a case study, how Model-Driven Engineering concepts are applied in the development of such Composite Applications. Our Case Study extends a back-end business process which is required for the specific needs of a demo company selling wine. We use this to describe how the business centric models specifying the modified business behaviour of our case study can be utilized for business performance analysis where most of the actions are performed by humans. In particular, we apply a refined version of Model-Driven Performance Engineering that we proposed in our previous work and motivate which business domain specifics have to be taken into account for business performance analysis. We additionally motivate the need for performance related decision support for domain experts, who generally lack performance related skills. Such a support should offer visual guidance about what should be changed in the design and resource mapping to get improved results with respect to modification constraints and performance objectives, or objectives for time.