936 resultados para Multiple Additive Regression Trees (MART)


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INTRODUCTION: Catheter-associated bloodstream infection (CA-BSI) is the most common nosocomial infection in neonatal intensive care units. There is evidence that care bundles to reduce CA-BSI are effective in the adult literature. The aim of this study was to reduce CA-BSI in a Brazilian neonatal intensive care unit by means of a care bundle including few strategies or procedures of prevention and control of these infections. METHODS: An intervention designed to reduce CA-BSI with five evidence-based procedures was conducted. RESULTS: A total of sixty-seven (26.7%) CA-BSIs were observed. There were 46 (32%) episodes of culture-proven sepsis in group preintervention (24.1 per 1,000 catheter days [CVC days]). Neonates in the group after implementation of the intervention had 21 (19.6%) episodes of CA-BSI (14.9 per 1,000 CVC days). The incidence of CA-BSI decreased significantly after the intervention from the group preintervention and postintervention (32% to 19.6%, 24.1 per 1,000 CVC days to 14.9 per 1,000 CVC days, p=0.04). In the multiple logistic regression analysis, the use of more than 3 antibiotics and length of stay >8 days were independent risk factors for BSI. CONCLUSIONS: A stepwise introduction of evidence-based intervention and intensive and continuous education of all healthcare workers are effective in reducing CA-BSI.

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SUMÁRIO - O desafio atual da Saúde Pública é assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema de saúde. Em ambiente de recursos escassos, as análises económicas aplicadas à prestação dos cuidados de saúde são um contributo para a tomada de decisão que visa a maximização do bem-estar social sujeita a restrição orçamental. Portugal é um país com 10,6 milhões de habitantes (2011) com uma incidência e prevalência elevadas de doença renal crónica estadio 5 (DRC5), respetivamente, 234 doentes por milhão de habitantes (pmh) e 1.600 doentes/pmh. O crescimento de doenças associadas às causas de DRC, nomeadamente, diabetes Mellitus e hipertensão arterial, antecipam uma tendência para o aumento do número de doentes. Em 2011, dos 17.553 doentes em tratamento substitutivo renal, 59% encontrava-se em programa de hemodiálise (Hd) em centros de diálise extra-hospitalares, 37% viviam com um enxerto renal funcionante e 4% estavam em diálise peritoneal (SPN, 2011). A lista ativa para transplante (Tx) renal registava 2.500 doentes (SPN 2009). O Tx renal é a melhor modalidade terapêutica pela melhoria da sobrevida, qualidade de vida e relação custo-efetividade, mas a elegibilidade para Tx e a oferta de órgãos condicionam esta opção. Esta investigação desenvolveu-se em duas vertentes: i) determinar o rácio custo-utilidade incremental do Tx renal comparado com a Hd; ii) avaliar a capacidade máxima de dadores de cadáver em Portugal, as características e as causas de morte dos dadores potenciais a nível nacional, por hospital e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT), e analisar o desempenho da rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx. Realizou-se um estudo observacional/não interventivo, prospetivo e analítico que incidiu sobre uma coorte de doentes em Hd que foi submetida a Tx renal. O tempo de seguimento mínimo foi de um ano e máximo de três anos. No início do estudo, colheram-se dados sociodemográficos e clínicos em 386 doentes em Hd, elegíveis para Tx renal. A qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS) foi avaliada nos doentes em Hd (tempo 0) e nos transplantados, aos três, seis, 12 meses, e depois, anualmente. Incluíram-se os doentes que por falência do enxerto renal transitaram para Hd. Na sua medição, utilizou-se um instrumento baseado em preferências da população, o EuroQol-5D, que permite o posterior cálculo dos QALY. Num grupo de 82 doentes, a QVRS em Hd foi avaliada em dois tempos de resposta o que permitiu a análise da sua evolução. Realizou-se uma análise custo-utilidade do Tx renal comparado com a Hd na perspetiva da sociedade. Identificaram-se os custos diretos, médicos e não médicos, e as alterações de produtividade em Hd e Tx renal. Incluíram-se os custos da colheita de órgãos, seleção dos candidatos a Tx renal e follow-up dos dadores vivos. Cada doente transplantado foi utilizado como controle de si próprio em diálise. Avaliou-se o custo médio anual em programa de Hd crónica relativo ao ano anterior à Tx renal. Os custos do Tx foram avaliados prospetivamente. Considerou-se como horizonte temporal o ciclo de vida nas duas modalidades. Usaram-se taxas de atualização de 0%, 3% e 5% na atualização dos custos e QALY e efetuaram-se análises de sensibilidade one way. Entre 2008 e 2010, 65 doentes foram submetidos a Tx renal. Registaram-se, prospetivamente, os resultados em saúde incluíndo os internamentos e os efeitos adversos da imunossupressão, e o consumo dos recursos em saúde. Utilizaram-se modelos de medidas repetidas na avaliação da evolução da QVRS e modelos de regressão múltipla na análise da associação da QVRS e dos custos do transplante com as características basais dos doentes e os eventos clínicos. Comparativamente à Hd, observou-se melhoria da utilidade ao 3º mês de Tx e a qualidade de vida aferida pela escala EQ-VAS melhorou em todos os tempos de observação após o Tx renal. O custo médio da Hd foi de 32.567,57€, considerado uniforme ao longo do tempo. O custo médio do Tx renal foi de 60.210,09€ no 1º ano e 12.956,77€ nos anos seguintes. O rácio custo-utilidade do Tx renal vs Hd crónica foi de 2.004,75€/QALY. A partir de uma sobrevivência do enxerto de dois anos e cinco meses, o Tx associou-se a poupança dos custos. Utilizaram-se os dados nacionais dos Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e realizou-se um estudo retrospectivo que abrangeu as mortes ocorridas em 34 hospitais com colheita de órgãos, em 2006. Considerou-se como dador potencial o indivíduo com idade entre 1-70 anos cuja morte ocorrera a nível hospitalar, e que apresentasse critérios de adequação à doação de rim. Analisou-se a associação dos dadores potenciais com características populacionais e hospitalares. O desempenho das organizações de colheita de órgãos foi avaliado pela taxa de conversão (rácio entre os dadores potenciais e efetivos) e pelo número de dadores potenciais por milhão de habitantes a nível nacional, regional e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT). Identificaram-se 3.838 dadores potenciais dos quais 608 apresentaram códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 9.ª Revisão, Modificações Clínicas (CID- 9-MC) que, com maior frequência, evoluem para a morte cerebral. O modelo logit para dados agrupados identificou a idade, o rácio da lotação em Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos e lotação de agudos, existência de GCCT e de Unidade de Transplantação, e mortalidade por acidente de trabalho como fatores preditivos da conversão dum dador potencial em efetivo e através das estimativas do modelo logit quantificou-se a probabilidade dessa conversão. A doação de órgãos deve ser assumida como uma prioridade e as autoridades em saúde devem assegurar o financiamento dos hospitais com programas de doação, evitando o desperdício de órgãos para transplantação, enquanto um bem público e escasso. A colheita de órgãos deve ser considerada uma opção estratégica da atividade hospitalar orientada para a organização e planeamento de serviços que maximizem a conversão de dadores potenciais em efetivos incluindo esse critério como medida de qualidade e efetividade do desempenho hospitalar. Os resultados deste estudo demonstram que: 1) o Tx renal proporciona ganhos em saúde, aumento da sobrevida e qualidade de vida, e poupança de custos; 2) em Portugal, a taxa máxima de eficácia da conversão dos dadores cadavéricos em dadores potenciais está longe de ser atingida. O investimento na rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx é essencial para assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira e promover a qualidade, eficiência e equidade dos cuidados em saúde prestados na DRC5.

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INTRODUCTION : Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a disease transmitted by ticks for which the etiological agent is Rickettsia rickettsii. The present essay evaluates the risk factors associated with the transmission of cases of BSF in the time period between 2003 and 2013 in the Piracicaba river basin, state of São Paulo. METHODS : This essay presents a retrospective study to identify the factors associated with the transmission of cases of BSF among all suspected cases identified by the System for Epidemiological Surveillance of São Paulo (CVE). After the description of temporal distribution (onset of symptoms) and the environmental and demographic variations of the confirmed and discarded cases, a multiple logistic regression model was applied. RESULTS : We searched 569 probable locations of infection (PLI) with 210 (37%) confirmed cases of BSF and 359 (63%) discarded cases. The associated variables for the confirmation of BSF in the multiple logistic model using a confidence interval (CI) of 95% were age (OR = 1.025 CI: 1.015-1.035), the presence of Amblyomma sculptum in the environment (OR = 1.629 CI: 1.097-2.439), the collection of ticks from horses (OR = 1.939 CI: 0.999-3.764), the presence of capybaras (OR = 1.467 CI: 1.009-2.138), an urban environment (OR = 1.515 CI: 1.036-2.231), and the existence of a dirty pasture (OR = 1.759 CI: 1.028-3.003). CONCLUSIONS : The factors associated with the confirmation of BSF cases included an urban environment, age, presence of the A. sculptum vector, the collection of ticks from horses, the presence of a capybara population, and a dirty pasture environment.

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INTRODUCTION: Strongyloides stercoralis is a soil-transmitted helminth that produces an infection that can persist for decades. The relationships between certain clinical conditions and strongyloidiasis remains controversial. This study aims to identify the clinical conditions associated with intestinal strongyloidiasis at a reference center for infectious diseases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: The clinical conditions that were assessed included HIV/AIDS, HTLV infection, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, obstructive respiratory diseases, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, cancer, chronic renal disease, nutritional/metabolic disorders, psychiatric conditions, rheumatic diseases and dermatologic diseases. We compared 167 S. stercoralis-positive and 133 S. stercoralis-negative patients. RESULTS: After controlling for sex (male/female OR = 2.29; 95% (CI): (1.42 - 3.70), rheumatic diseases remained significantly associated with intestinal strongyloidiasis (OR: 4.96; 95% CI: 1.34-18.37) in a multiple logistic regression model. With respect to leukocyte counts, patients with strongyloidiasis presented with significantly higher relative eosinophil (10.32% ± 7.2 vs. 4.23% ± 2.92) and monocyte (8.49% ± 7.25 vs. 5.39% ± 4.31) counts and lower segmented neutrophil (52.85% ± 15.31 vs. 61.32% ± 11.4) and lymphocyte counts (28.11% ± 9.72 vs. 30.90% ± 9.51) than S. stercoralis-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: Strongyloidiasis should be routinely investigated in hospitalized patients with complex conditions facilitate the treatment of patients who will undergo immunosuppressive therapy. Diagnoses should be determined through the use of appropriate parasitological methods, such as the Baermann-Moraes technique.

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Nowadays the main honey producing countries require accurate labeling of honey before commercialization, including floral classification. Traditionally, this classification is made by melissopalynology analysis, an accurate but time-consuming task requiring laborious sample pre-treatment and high-skilled technicians. In this work the potential use of a potentiometric electronic tongue for pollinic assessment is evaluated, using monofloral and polyfloral honeys. The results showed that after splitting honeys according to color (white, amber and dark), the novel methodology enabled quantifying the relative percentage of the main pollens (Castanea sp., Echium sp., Erica sp., Eucaliptus sp., Lavandula sp., Prunus sp., Rubus sp. and Trifolium sp.). Multiple linear regression models were established for each type of pollen, based on the best sensors sub-sets selected using the simulated annealing algorithm. To minimize the overfitting risk, a repeated K-fold cross-validation procedure was implemented, ensuring that at least 10-20% of the honeys were used for internal validation. With this approach, a minimum average determination coefficient of 0.91 ± 0.15 was obtained. Also, the proposed technique enabled the correct classification of 92% and 100% of monofloral and polyfloral honeys, respectively. The quite satisfactory performance of the novel procedure for quantifying the relative pollen frequency may envisage its applicability for honey labeling and geographical origin identification. Nevertheless, this approach is not a full alternative to the traditional melissopalynologic analysis; it may be seen as a practical complementary tool for preliminary honey floral classification, leaving only problematic cases for pollinic evaluation.

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Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Administração

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PURPOSE: To determine the frequency of coronary artery disease, microalbuminuria and the relation to lipid profile disorders, blood pressure and clinical and metabolic features. METHODS: Fifty-five type 2 diabetic patients (32 females, 23 males), aged 59.9±9 years and with known diabetes duration of 11±7.3 years were studied. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was defined as a positive history of myocardial infarction, typical angina, myocardial revascularization or a positive stress testing. Microalbuminuria was defined when two out of three overnight urine samples had a urinary albumin excretion ranging 20 - 200µg/min. RESULTS: CAD was present in 24 patients (43,6%). High blood pressure (HBP) present in 32 patients (58.2%) and was more frequent in CAD group (p=0.05) HBP. Increased the risk of CAD 3.7 times (CI[1.14-12]). Microalbuminuria was present in 25 patients (45.5%) and tended to associate with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) (p = 0.06), presence of hypertension (p = 0.06) and know diabetes duration (p = 0.08). In the stepwise multiple logistic regression the systolic blood pressure was the only variable that influenced UAE (r = 0.39, r² = 0.14, p = 0.01). The h ypertensive patients had higher cholesterol levels (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: In our sample the frequency of microalbuminuria, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and CHD was high. Since diabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the association of others risk factors suggest the need for an intensive therapeutic intervention in primary and in secundary prevention.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of intermittent claudication in the aged population of Bambuí, Brazil, and to identify the factors associated with this disease. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study of the aged population ( > or = 60 years of age) of Bambuí. Participants were interviewed and examined, after written consent. Intermittent claudication was defined based on a standardized questionnaire. Analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1,742 elderly living in Bambuí, 1,485 (85.2%) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-seven individuals (2.5%) with intermittent claudication were identified: 28 (1.9%) males and 9 (0.6%) females. Their age brackets were: 16 (1.08%) individuals between 60 and 69 years of age, 17 (1.15%) between 70 and 79 years, and 4 (0.27%) > or = 80 years. A significant association between intermittent claudication and the following characteristics was found: male sex (OR=5.1; CI 2.4-11.0), smokers (OR=3.1; CI 1.2-8.5), ex-smokers (OR=3.4; CI 1.3-8.7), and more than 2 hospital admissions in the last 12 months (OR=2.8; CI 1.1-7.2). CONCLUSION: Disease prevalence was similar to that of other countries. The association between intermittent claudication and smoking strengthens the significance of tobacco in peripheral artery disease pathogenesis. The association of intermittent claudication and a higher number of hospital admissions suggests greater morbidity in the elderly affected.

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OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

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OBJECTIVE - A population-based prospective study was analysed to: a) determine the prevalence of hypertension; b) investigate the clustering of other cardiovascular risk factors and c) verify whether older differed from younger adults in the pattern of clustering. METHODS - The data comprised a representative sample of the population of Bambuí, Brazil. Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate the independent association between hypertension and selected factors. RESULTS - A total of 820 younger adults (82.5%) and 1494 older adults (85.9%) participated in this study. The overall prevalence of hypertension was 24.8% (SE=1.4 %), being higher in women (26.9±1.5%) than in men (22.0± 1.7%) (p=0.033). Hypertension was positively and significantly associated with physical inactivity, overweight, hypercholesterolemia hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia. The coexistence of hypertension with 4 or more of these risk factors occurred 6 times more than expected by chance, after adjusting for age and sex (OR=6.3; 95%CI: 3.4-11.9). The pattern of risk factor clustering in hypertensive individuals differed with age. CONCLUSION - Our results reinforce the need to increase detection and treatment of hypertension and to approach patients' global risk profiles.

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Natural mineral waters (still), effervescent natural mineral waters (sparkling) and aromatized waters with fruit-flavors (still or sparkling) are an emerging market. In this work, the capability of a potentiometric electronic tongue, comprised with lipid polymeric membranes, to quantitatively estimate routinely quality physicochemical parameters (pH and conductivity) as well as to qualitatively classify water samples according to the type of water was evaluated. The study showed that a linear discriminant model, based on 21 sensors selected by the simulated annealing algorithm, could correctly classify 100 % of the water samples (leave-one out cross-validation). This potential was further demonstrated by applying a repeated K-fold cross-validation (guaranteeing that at least 15 % of independent samples were only used for internal-validation) for which 96 % of correct classifications were attained. The satisfactory recognition performance of the E-tongue could be attributed to the pH, conductivity, sugars and organic acids contents of the studied waters, which turned out in significant differences of sweetness perception indexes and total acid flavor. Moreover, the E-tongue combined with multivariate linear regression models, based on sub-sets of sensors selected by the simulated annealing algorithm, could accurately estimate waters pH (25 sensors: R 2 equal to 0.99 and 0.97 for leave-one-out or repeated K-folds cross-validation) and conductivity (23 sensors: R 2 equal to 0.997 and 0.99 for leave-one-out or repeated K-folds cross-validation). So, the overall satisfactory results achieved, allow envisaging a potential future application of electronic tongue devices for bottled water analysis and classification.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the trends of the risk of death due to circulatory (CD), cerebrovascular (CVD), and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in 11 Brazilian capitals from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Data on mortality due to CD, CVD and IHD were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry, and the population estimates were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method based on census data from 1980 and 1991 and the population count of 1996. The trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression method. RESULTS: CD showed a trend towards a decrease in most capitals, except for Brasília, where a mild increase was observed. The cities of Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Cuiabá, Goiânia, Belém, and Manaus showed a decrease in the risk of death due to CVD and IHD, while the city of Brasília showed an increase in CVD and IHD. The city of São Paulo showed a mild increase in IHD for individuals of both sexes aged 30 to 39 years and for females aged 40 to 59 years. In the cities of Recife and Salvador, a reduction in CD was observed for all ages and both sexes. In the city of Recife, however, an increase in IHD was observed at younger ages (30 to 49 years), and this trend decreased until a mild reduction (-4%) was observed in males ³ 70 years. CONCLUSION: In general, a reduction in the risk of death due to CD and an increase in IHD were observed, mainly in the cities of Recife and Brasília.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the predictive factors of complications after implantation of coronary stents in a consecutive cohort study. METHODS: Clinical and angiographic characteristics related to the procedure were analyzed, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction, urgent surgery, new angioplasty, death) in the in-hospital phase were recorded. Data were stored in an Access database and analyzed by using the SPSS 6.0 statistical program and a stepwise backwards multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: One thousand eighteen (mean age of 61±11 years, 29% females) patients underwent 1,070 stent implantations. The rate of angiographic success was 96.8%, the rate of clinical success was 91%, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications was 7.9%. The variables independently associated with major cardiovascular complications, with their respective odds ratio (OR) were: rescue stent, OR = 5.1 (2.7-9.6); filamentary stent, OR = 4.5 (2.2-9.1); first-generation tubular stent, OR = 2.4 (1.2-4.6); multiple stents, OR = 3 (1.6-5.6); complexity of the lesion, OR = 2.4 (1.1-5.1); thrombus, OR = 2 (1.1-3.5). CONCLUSION: The results stress the importance of angiographic variables and techniques in the risk of complications and draw attention to the influence of the stent's design on the result of the procedure.

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Background:Systemic hypertension is highly prevalent and an important risk factor for cardiovascular events. Blood pressure control in hypertensive patients enrolled in the Hiperdia Program, a program of the Single Health System for the follow-up and monitoring of hypertensive patients, is still far below the desired level.Objective:To describe the epidemiological profile and to assess blood pressure control of patients enrolled in Hiperdia, in the city of Novo Hamburgo (State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil).Methods:Cross-sectional study with a stratified cluster random sample, including 383 adults enrolled in the Hiperdia Program of the 15 Basic Health Units of the city of Porto Alegre, conducted between 2010 and 2011. Controlled blood pressure was defined as ≤140 mmHg × 90 mmHg. The hypertensive patients were interviewed and their blood pressure was measured using a calibrated aneroid device. Prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence interval, Wald's χ2 test, and simple and multiple Poisson regression were used in the statistical analysis.Results:The mean age was 63 ± 10 years, and most of the patients were females belonging to social class C, with a low level of education, a sedentary lifestyle, and family history positive for systemic hypertension. Diabetes mellitus (DM) was observed in 31%; adherence to the antihypertensive treatment in 54.3%; and 33.7% had their blood pressure controlled. DM was strongly associated with inadequate BP control, with only 15.7% of the diabetics showing BP considered as controlled.Conclusion:Even for hypertensive patients enrolled in the Hiperdia Program, BP control is not satisfactorily reached or sustained. Diabetic hypertensive patients show the most inappropriate BP control.