Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Mortality by Heart Failure and Ischemic Heart Disease in Brazil from 1996 to 2011

Background:Circulatory system diseases are the first cause of death in Brazil.Objective:To analyze the evolution of mortality caused by heart failure, by ischemic heart diseases and by ill-defined causes, as well as their possible relations, in Brazil and in the geoeconomic regions of the country (North, Northeast, Center-West, South and Southeast), from 1996 to 2011.Methods:Data were obtained from DATASUS and death declaration records with codes I20 and I24 for acute ischemic diseases, I25 for chronic ischemic diseases, and I50 for heart failure, and codes in chapter XIII for ill-defined causes, according to geoeconomic regions of Brazil, from 1996 to 2011.Results:Mortality rates due to heart failure declined in Brazil and its regions, except for the North and the Northeast. Mortality rates due to acute ischemic heart diseases increased in the North and Northeast regions, especially from 2005 on; they remained stable in the Center-West region; and decreased in the South and in the Southeast. Mortality due to chronic ischemic heart diseases decreased in Brazil and in the Center-West, South and Southeast regions, and had little variation in the North and in the Northeast. The highest mortality rates due to ill-defined causes occurred in the Northeast until 2005.Conclusions:Mortality due to heart failure is decreasing in Brazil and in all of its geoeconomic regions. The temporal evolution of mortality caused by ischemic heart diseases was similar to that of heart failure. The decreasing number of deaths due to ill-defined causes may represent the improvement in the quality of information about mortality in Brazil. The evolution of acute ischemic heart diseases ranged according to regions, being possibly confused with the differential evolution of ill-defined causes.

Relevance of Target-Organ Lesions as Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

Background: Patients with diabetes are in extract higher risk for fatal cardiovascular events. Objective: To evaluate major predictors of mortality in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Methods: A cohort of 323 individuals with type 2 diabetes from several regions of Brazil was followed for a long period. Baseline electrocardiograms, clinical and laboratory data obtained were used to determine hazard ratios (HR) and confidence interval (CI) related to cardiovascular and total mortality. Results: After 9.2 years of follow-up (median), 33 subjects died (17 from cardiovascular causes). Cardiovascular mortality was associated with male gender; smoking; prior myocardial infarction; long QTc interval; left ventricular hypertrophy; and eGFR <60 mL/min. These factors, in addition to obesity, were predictors of total mortality. Cardiovascular mortality was adjusted for age and gender, but remained associated with: smoking (HR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.3-11.8; p = 0.019); prior myocardial infarction (HR = 8.5; 95% CI 1.8-39.9; p = 0.007); eGFR < 60 mL/min (HR = 9.5; 95% CI 2.7-33.7; p = 0.001); long QTc interval (HR = 5.1; 95% CI 1.7-15.2; p = 0.004); and left ventricular hypertrophy (HR = 3.5; 95% CI 1.3-9.7; p = 0.002). Total mortality was associated with obesity (HR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-5.1; p = 0.030); smoking (HR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.0-6.1; p = 0.046); prior myocardial infarction (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.1; p = 0.005), and long QTc interval (HR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.1; p = 0.017). Conclusions: Biomarkers of simple measurement, particularly those related to target-organ lesions, were predictors of mortality in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes Mellitus and Glucose as Predictors of Mortality in Primary Coronary Percutaneous Intervention

Background: Diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose are important risk factors for mortality in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, but their relative and individual role remains on debate. Objective: To analyze the influence of diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose on the mortality of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention. Methods: Prospective cohort study including every ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patient submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention in a tertiary cardiology center from December 2010 to May 2012. We collected clinical, angiographic and laboratory data during hospital stay, and performed a clinical follow-up 30 days after the ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. We adjusted the multivariate analysis of the studied risk factors using the variables from the GRACE score. Results: Among the 740 patients included, reported diabetes mellitus prevalence was 18%. On the univariate analysis, both diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose were predictors of death in 30 days. However, after adjusting for potential confounders in the multivariate analysis, the diabetes mellitus relative risk was no longer significant (relative risk: 2.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.76 - 7.59; p-value: 0.13), whereas admission blood glucose remained and independent predictor of death in 30 days (relative risk: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.02 - 1.09; p-value ≤ 0.01). Conclusion: In ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention, the admission blood glucose was a more accurate and robust independent predictor of death than the previous diagnosis of diabetes. This reinforces the important role of inflammation on the outcomes of this group of patients.

Assessment of Myocardial Infarction by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Long-Term Mortality

Background: Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging provides detailed anatomical information on infarction. However, few studies have investigated the association of these data with mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Objective: To study the association between data regarding infarct size and anatomy, as obtained from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging after acute myocardial infarction, and long-term mortality. Methods: A total of 1959 reports of “infarct size” were identified in 7119 cardiac magnetic resonance imaging studies, of which 420 had clinical and laboratory confirmation of previous myocardial infarction. The variables studied were the classic risk factors – left ventricular ejection fraction, categorized ventricular function, and location of acute myocardial infarction. Infarct size and acute myocardial infarction extent and transmurality were analyzed alone and together, using the variable named “MET-AMI”. The statistical analysis was carried out using the elastic net regularization, with the Cox model and survival trees. Results: The mean age was 62.3 ± 12 years, and 77.3% were males. During the mean follow-up of 6.4 ± 2.9 years, there were 76 deaths (18.1%). Serum creatinine, diabetes mellitus and previous myocardial infarction were independently associated with mortality. Age was the main explanatory factor. The cardiac magnetic resonance imaging variables independently associated with mortality were transmurality of acute myocardial infarction (p = 0.047), ventricular dysfunction (p = 0.0005) and infarcted size (p = 0.0005); the latter was the main explanatory variable for ischemic heart disease death. The MET-AMI variable was the most strongly associated with risk of ischemic heart disease death (HR: 16.04; 95%CI: 2.64-97.5; p = 0.003). Conclusion: The anatomical data of infarction, obtained from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging after acute myocardial infarction, were independently associated with long-term mortality, especially for ischemic heart disease death.

Infant Mortality in Novo Hamburgo: Associated Factors and Cardiovascular Causes

Background: Infant mortality has decreased in Brazil, but remains high as compared to that of other developing countries. In 2010, the Rio Grande do Sul state had the lowest infant mortality rate in Brazil. However, the municipality of Novo Hamburgo had the highest infant mortality rate in the Porto Alegre metropolitan region. Objective: To describe the causes of infant mortality in the municipality of Novo Hamburgo from 2007 to 2010, identifying which causes were related to heart diseases and if they were diagnosed in the prenatal period, and to assess the access to healthcare services. Methods: This study assessed infants of the municipality of Novo Hamburgo, who died, and whose data were collected from the infant death investigation records. Results: Of the 157 deaths in that period, 35.3% were reducible through diagnosis and early treatment, 25% were reducible through partnership with other sectors, 19.2% were non-preventable, 11.5% were reducible by means of appropriate pregnancy monitoring, 5.1% were reducible through appropriate delivery care, and 3.8% were ill defined. The major cause of death related to heart disease (13.4%), which was significantly associated with the variables ‘age at death’, ‘gestational age’ and ‘birth weight’. Regarding access to healthcare services, 60.9% of the pregnant women had a maximum of six prenatal visits. Conclusion: It is mandatory to enhance prenatal care and newborn care at hospitals and basic healthcare units to prevent infant mortality.

Evolution of Cardiovascular Diseases Mortality in the Counties of the State of Rio de Janeiro from 1979 to 2010

Background: Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in Brazil. Objective: To estimate total CVD, cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in adults in the counties of the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ), from 1979 to 2010. Methods: The counties of the SRJ were analysed according to their denominations stablished by the geopolitical structure of 1950, Each new county that have since been created, splitting from their original county, was grouped according to their former origin. Population Data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and data on deaths were obtained from DataSus/MS. Mean CVD, CBVD, and IHD mortality rates were estimated, compensated for deaths from ill-defined causes, and adjusted for age and sex using the direct method for three periods: 1979–1989, 1990–1999, and 2000–2010, Such results were spatially represented in maps. Tables were also constructed showing the mortality rates for each disease and year period. Results: There was a significant reduction in mortality rates across the three disease groups over the the three defined periods in all the county clusters analysed, Despite an initial mortality rate variation among the counties, it was observed a homogenization of such rates at the final period (2000–2010). The drop in CBVD mortality was greater than that in IHD mortality. Conclusion: Mortality due to CVD has steadily decreased in the SRJ in the last three decades. This reduction cannot be explained by greater access to high technology procedures or better control of cardiovascular risk factors as these facts have not occurred or happened in low proportion of cases with the exception of smoking which has decreased significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek explanations for this decrease, which may be related to improvements in the socioeconomic conditions of the population.

One-year Mortality after an Acute Coronary Event and its Clinical Predictors: The ERICO Study

Background:Information about post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survival have been mostly short-term findings or based on specialized, cardiology referral centers.Objectives:To describe one-year case-fatality rates in the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) cohort, and to study baseline characteristics as predictors.Methods:We analyzed data from 964 ERICO participants enrolled from February 2009 to December 2012. We assessed vital status by telephone contact and official death certificate searches. The cause of death was determined according to the official death certificates. We used log-rank tests to compare the probabilities of survival across subgroups. We built crude and adjusted (for age, sex and ACS subtype) Cox regression models to study if the ACS subtype or baseline characteristics were independent predictors of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.Results:We identified 110 deaths in the cohort (case-fatality rate, 12.0%). Age [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.04 per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.75–2.38], non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 3.82 ; 95%CI = 2.21–6.60) or ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 2.59; 95%CI = 1.38–4.89) diagnoses, and diabetes (HR = 1.78; 95%CI = 1.20‑2.63) were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality in the adjusted models. We found similar results for cardiovascular mortality. A previous coronary artery disease diagnosis was also an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.04–2.50), but not for cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion:We found an overall one-year mortality rate of 12.0% in a sample of post-ACS patients in a community, non-specialized hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Age, ACS subtype, and diabetes were independent predictors of poor one‑year survival for overall and cardiovascular-related causes.

Pulmonary Embolism Mortality in Brazil from 1989 to 2010: Gender and Regional Disparities

Abstract Background: A significant variation in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends have been documented around the world. We investigated the trends in mortality rate from PE in Brazil over a period of 21 years and its regional and gender differences. Methods: Using a nationwide database of death certificate information we searched for all cases with PE as the underlying cause of death between 1989 and 2010. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We calculated age-, gender- and region-specific mortality rates for each year, using the 2000 Brazilian population for direct standardization. Results: Over 21 years the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) fell 31% from 3.04/100,000 to 2.09/100,000. In every year between 1989 and 2010, the ASMR was higher in women than in men, but both showed a significant declining trend, from 3.10/100,000 to 2.36/100,000 and from 2.94/100,000 to 1.80/100,000, respectively. Although all country regions showed a decline in their ASMR, the largest fall in death rates was concentrated in the highest income regions of the South and Southeast Brazil. The North and Northeast regions, the lowest income areas, showed a less marked fall in death rates and no distinct change in the PE mortality rate in women. Conclusions: Our study showed a reduction in the PE mortality rate over two decades in Brazil. However, significant variation in this trend was observed amongst the five country regions and between genders, pointing to possible disparities in health care access and quality in these groups.

Trends in Mortality Rate from Cardiovascular Disease in Brazil, 1980-2012

Abstract Background: Studies have questioned the downward trend in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brazil in recent years. Objective: to analyze recent trends in mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in the Brazilian population. Methods: Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Risk of death was adjusted by the direct method, using as reference the world population of 2000. We analyzed trends in mortality from CVD, IHD and stroke in women and men in the periods of 1980-2006 and 2007-2012. Results: there was a decrease in CVD mortality and stroke in women and men for both periods (p < 0.001). Annual mortality variations for periods 1980-2006 and 2007-2012 were, respectively: CVD (total): -1.5% and -0.8%; CVD men: -1.4% and -0.6%; CVD women: -1.7% and -1.0%; DIC (men): -1.1% and 0.1%; stroke (men): -1.7% and -1.4%; DIC (women): -1.5% and 0.4%; stroke (women): -2.0% and -1.9%. From 1980 to 2006, there was a decrease in IHD mortality in men and women (p < 0.001), but from 2007 to 2012, changes in IHD mortality were not significant in men [y = 151 + 0.04 (R2 = 0.02; p = 0.779)] and women [y = 88-0.54 (R2 = 0.24; p = 0.320). Conclusion: Trend in mortality from IHD stopped falling in Brazil from 2007 to 2012.

Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality in young adults: recent trends in Europe.

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Establishing an association between a peri-operative perfusion score system (PerfSCORE) and post-operative patient morbidity/mortality during CPB cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no quality assurance program that correlates patient outcome to perfusion service provided during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). A score was devised, incorporating objective parameters that would reflect the likelihood to influence patient outcome. The purpose was to create a new method for evaluating the quality of care the perfusionist provides during CPB procedures and to deduce whether it predicts patient morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We analysed 295 consecutive elective patients. We chose 10 parameters: fluid balance, blood transfused, Hct, ACT, PaO2, PaCO2, pH, BE, potassium and CPB time. Distribution analysis was performed using the Shapiro-Wilcoxon test. This made up the PerfSCORE and we tried to find a correlation to mortality rate, patient stay in the ICU and length of mechanical ventilation. Univariate analysis (UA) using linear regression was established for each parameter. Statistical significance was established when p < 0.05. Multivariate analysis (MA) was performed with the same parameters. RESULTS: The mean age was 63.8 +/- 12.6 years with 70% males. There were 180 CABG, 88 valves, and 27 combined CABG/valve procedures. The PerfSCORE of 6.6 +/- 2.4 (0-20), mortality of 2.7% (8/295), CPB time 100 +/- 41 min (19-313), ICU stay 52 +/- 62 hrs (7-564) and mechanical ventilation of 10.5 +/- 14.8 hrs (0-564) was calculated. CPB time, fluid balance, PaO2, PerfSCORE and blood transfused were significantly correlated to mortality (UA, p < 0.05). Also, CPB time, blood transfused and PaO2 were parameters predicting mortality (MA, p < 0.01). Only pH was significantly correlated for predicting ICU stay (UA). Ultrafiltration (UF) and CPB time were significantly correlated (UA, p < 0.01) while UF (p < 0.05) was the only parameter predicting mechanical ventilation duration (MA). CONCLUSIONS: CPB time, blood transfused and PaO2 are independent risk factors of mortality. Fluid balance, blood transfusion, PaO2, PerfSCORE and CPB time are independent parameters for predicting morbidity. PerfSCORE is a quality of perfusion measure that objectively quantifies perfusion performance.

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. METHODS: Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. RESULTS: Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06-1.46), CHD mortality (HR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.99-1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16-2.43).Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% forAF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L(for both, P value for trend, .03). CONCLUSION: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L.

Ecologic correlations of selected food groups with disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland.

Background: There is little information regarding the impact of diet on disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland. We assessed ecologic correlations between food availability and disease.Methods: In this ecologic study for the period 1970-2009, food availability was measured using the food balance sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the World Health Organization Health For All database and the Vaud Cancer Registry. Associations between food availability and mortality/incidence were assessed at lags 0, 5, 10, and 15 years by multivariate regression adjusted for total caloric intake.Results: Alcoholic beverages and fruit availability were positively associated, and fish availability was inversely associated, with SMRs for cardiovascular diseases. Animal products, meat, and animal fats were positively associated with the SMR for ischemic heart disease only. For cancer, the results of analysis using SMRs and incidence rates were contradictory. Alcoholic beverages and fruits were positively associated with SMRs for all cancer but inversely associated with all-cancer incidence rates. Similar findings were obtained for all other foods except vegetables, which were weakly inversely associated with SMRs and incidence rates. Use of a 15-year lag reversed the associations with animal and vegetal products, weakened the association with alcohol and fruits, and strengthened the association with fish.Conclusions: Ecologic associations between food availability and disease vary considerably on the basis of whether mortality or incidence rates are used in the analysis. Great care is thus necessary when interpreting our results.