Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Year class mortality, abundance and yield-per-recruit of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean, 1954-1959

ENGLISH: One primary duty of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission is to estimate the maximum sustainable catches of yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and to investigate and recommend proposals to maintain the stocks at levels which will permit these catches to be obtained. To do this, there is required some means of predicting yields relative to fishing intensity. . . The age composition of catch, and growth rate of yellowfin tuna for recent years have now been estimated (Hennemuth, 1961). In this paper, relative abundance at age of yellowfin tuna shall be estimated -and used, in turn, to estimate total mortality rate. Yield-per-recruit calculations, based on Beverton and Holt's (1957) simple equation, will be presented to compare present utilization with theoretical maxima under varying levels of fishing mortality and different ages at first capture. SPANISH: Uno de los principales deberes de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical es estimar las pescas máximas sostenibles de los atunes aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) , así como estudiar y recomendar proposiciones para mantener los stocks a niveles que permitan obtener estas pescas. Para lograr este propósito se requieren algunos medios que permitan predecir el rendimiento en relación con la intensidad de la pesca. . La composición de edades de la pesca y la tasa de crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla en años recientes han sido estimadas ahora (Hennemuth, 1961). En este trabajo, la abundancia relativa a una edad dada de esta especie será estimada y usada, a su vez, para estimar la tasa de mortalidad total. Los cálculos del rendimiento por recluta, basados en la ecuación simple de Beverton y Holt (1957), serán presentados para comparar la utilización actual con los máximos teóricos bajo valores variables de mortalidad por la pesca y a diferentes edades a la primera captura.

Mortality, growth and growth rate variability of striped bass larvae in Chesapeake Subestuaries

In this report we develop age-length keys and derive age-frequency data. We estimate striped bass and white perch mortality and growth rates, based on the otolith-aging analysis. We also report on hatch-date frequencies of striped bass and white perch larvae, and we discuss environmental effects on recruitment potential.

An assessment of discard mortality for two Alaskan crab species, Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio), based on reflex impairment

Delayed mortality associated with discarded crabs and fishes has ordinarily been observed through tag and recovery studies or during prolonged holding in deck tanks, and there is need for a more efficient assessment method. Chionoecetes bairdi (Tanner crab) and C. opilio (snow crab) collected with bottom trawls in Bering Sea waters off Alaska were evaluated for reflexes and injuries and held onboard to track mortality. Presence or absence of six reflex actions was determined and combined to calculate a reflex impairment index for each species. Logistic regression revealed that reflex impairment provided an excellent predictor of delayed mortality in C. opilio (91% correct predictions). For C. bairdi, reflex impairment, along with injury score, resulted in 82.7% correct predictions of mortality, and reflex impairment alone resulted in 79.5% correct predictions. The relationships between reflex impairment score and mortality were independent of crab gender, size, and shell condition, and predicted mortality in crabs with no obvious external damage. These relationships provide substantial improvement over earlier predictors of mortality and will help to increase the scope and replication of fishing and handling experiments. The general approach of using reflex actions to predict mortality should be equally valuable for a wide range of crustacean species.

Fecundity, egg deposition, and mortality of market squid (Lolilgo opalescens)

Loligo opalescens live less than a year and die after a short spawning period before all oocytes are expended. Potential fecundity (EP), the standing stock of all oocytes just before the onset of spawning, increased with dorsal mantle length (L), where EP = 29.8L. For the average female squid (L of 129 mm), EP was 3844 oocytes. During the spawning period, no oogonia were produced; therefore the standing stock of oocytes declined as they were ovulated. This decline in oocytes was correlated with a decline in mantle condition and an increase in the size of the smallest oocyte in the ovary. Close agreement between the decline in estimated body weight and standing stock of oocytes during the spawning period indicated that maturation and spawning of eggs could largely, if not entirely, be supported by the conversion of energy reserves in tissue. Loligo opalescens, newly recruited to the spawning population, ovulated about 36% of their potential fecundity during their first spawning day and fewer ova were released in subsequent days. Loligo opalescens do not spawn all of their oocytes; a small percentage of the spawning population may live long enough to spawn 78% of their potential fecundity. Loligo opalescens are taken in a spawning grounds fishery off California, where nearly all of the catch are mature spawning adults. Thirty-three percent of the potential fecundity of L. opalescens was deposited before they were taken by the fishery (December 1998−99). This observation led to the development of a management strategy based on monitoring the escapement of eggs from the fishery. The strategy requires estimation of the fecundity realized by the average squid in the population which is a function of egg deposition and mortality rates. A model indicated that the daily total mortality rate on the spawning ground may be about 0.45 and that the average adult may live only 1.67 days after spawning begins. The rate at which eggs escape the fishery was modeled and the sensitivity of changing daily rates of fishing mortality, natural mortality, and egg deposition was examined. A rapid method for monitoring the fecundity of the L. opalescens catch was developed.

Estimates of growth, mortality, recruitment pattern and MSY of important resources from the Maharashtra coast

Based on the data collected from the year 1987-1991 the growth, mortality and recruitment pattern of eighteen species of fish, two species of cephalopods and four species of penaeid prawns have been presented in the present communication. The total mortality coefficient, (Z) varied from lowest of 1.20 for O. cuvieri to a highest of 10.78 for P. stylifera. The natural mortality coefficient, (M) varied from 0.52 for T. thalassinus to 3.44 for S. crassicornis. The average annual yield of eighteen species of fish, four species of prawns and two species of cephalopods are 65.083, 38.404 and 11.373 tons as against the MSY of 83.023, 72.460 and 10.475 tons respectively. The MSY estimated for the total fish stock is 1.77.753 tons whereas the present yield is 1.14.859 tons. This indicates that higher yield can be obtained by increasing the effort.

Age structure, growth and mortality estimates of an endemic Ptychobarbus dipogon (Regan, 1905) (Cyprinidae: Schizothoracinae) in the Lhasa River, Tibet

Ptychobarbus dipogon is an endemic fish in the Yarlung Tsangpo River, but its biology is poorly known. We sampled 582 specimens (total length, TL, between 70.6 and 593.0 mm) from April 2004 to August 2006 in the Lhasa River, Tibet. We estimated ages based on the counts of alternating opaque and translucent zones (annuli) in thin transverse sections of lapilli otoliths. Ages ranged from 1(+) to 23(+) years for males and 1(+) to 44(+) for females. The observed 44(+) years was the oldest reported for schizothoracine fishes. Females attained a larger size than males. The TL weight relationship was W=7.12 x 10(-6)TL(3.006) for combined sexes. The growth parameters fitted von Bertalanffy growth functions were L-infinity = 598.66 mm, k=0.0898 year(-1), t(0)=-0.7261 year and W-infinity = 1585.38 g for females and L-infinity = 494.23mm, k=0.1197 year(-1), t(0)=-0.7296 year and W-infinity = 904.88g for males. The longevities of 32.7 year for females and 24.3 year for males were similar to the observed ages. Using an empirical model we estimated the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) at 0.28 per year in the lower reaches. Z in the upper and middle stocks was close to the M because of unexploited or lightly exploited stock. Protracted longevity, slow growth, low natural mortality and large body size were typical characteristics of P. dipogon. The current declining trend of P. dipogon could be prevented by altering fishing regulations.

States of play: Irish childhoods, race and belonging

This thesis explores the meaning-making practices of migrant and non-migrant children in relation to identities, race, belonging and childhood itself in their everyday lives and in the context of ‘normalizing’ discourses and spaces in Ireland. The relational, spatial and institutional contexts of children’s worlds are examined in the arenas of school, home, family, peer groups and consumer culture. The research develops a situated account of children’s complex subject positions, belongings and exclusions, as negotiated within discursive constructs, emerging in the ‘in-between’ spaces explored with other children and with adults. As a peripheral EU area both geographically and economically, Ireland has traditionally been a country of net emigration. This situation changed briefly in the late 1990s to early 2000s, sparking broad debate on Ireland’s perceived ‘new’ ethnic, cultural and linguistic diversity arising from the arrival of migrant people both from within and beyond the EU as workers and as asylum seekers, and drawing attention to issues of race, identity, equality and integration in Irish society. Based in a West of Ireland town where migrant children and children of migrants comprise very small minorities in classroom settings, this research engages with a particular demographic of children who have started primary school since these changes have occurred. It seeks to represent the complexities of the processes which constitute children’s subjectivities, and which also produce and reproduce race and childhood itself in this context. The role of local, national and global spaces, relational networks and discursive currents as they are experienced and negotiated by children are explored, and the significance of embodied, sensory and affective processes are integrated into the analysis. Notions of the functions and rhetorics of play and playfulness (Sutton-Smith 1997) form a central thread that runs throughout the thesis, where play is both a feature of children’s cultural worlds and a site of resistance or ‘thinking otherwise’. The study seeks to examine how children actively participate in (re)producing definitions of both childhood and race arising in local, national and global spaces, demonstrating that while contestations of the boundaries of childhood discourses are contingently successful, race tends to be strongly reiterated, clinging to bodies and places and compromising belonging. In addition, it explores how children access belongings through agentic and imaginative practices with regard to peer and family relationships, particularly highlighting constructions of home, while also illustrating practices of excluding children positioned as unintelligible, including the role of silences in such situations. Finally, drawing on teachers’ understandings and on children’s playful micro-level negotiations of race, the study argues that assumptions of childhood innocence contribute to justifying depoliticised discourses of race in the early primary school years, and also tend to silence children’s own dialogues with this issue. Central throughout the thesis is an emphasis on the productive potentials of children’s marginal positioning in processes of transgressing definitional boundaries, including the generation of post-race conceptualisations that revealed the borders of race as performative and fluid. It suggests that interrupting exclusionary raced identities in Irish primary schools requires engagement with children’s world-making practices and the multiple resources that inform their lives.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.

An individual-based model of the early life history of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic, simulating transport, growth and mortality

The main purpose of this paper is to provide the core description of the modelling exercise within the Shelf Edge Advection Mortality And Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for the prediction of year-to-year survival of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic. The IBM is one of two components of the model system. The first component is a circulation model to provide physical input data for the IBM. The circulation model is a geographical variant of the HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The second component is the IBM, which is an i-space configuration model in which large numbers of individuals are followed as discrete entities to simulate the transport, growth and mortality of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae. Larval and post-larval growth is modelled as a function of length, temperature and food distribution; mortality is modelled as a function of length and absolute growth rate. Each particle is considered as a super-individual representing 10 super(6) eggs at the outset of the simulation, and then declining according to the mortality function. Simulations were carried out for the years 1998-2000. Results showed concentrations of particles at Porcupine Bank and the adjacent Irish shelf, along the Celtic Sea shelf-edge, and in the southern Bay of Biscay. High survival was observed only at Porcupine and the adjacent shelf areas, and, more patchily, around the coastal margin of Biscay. The low survival along the shelf-edge of the Celtic Sea was due to the consistently low estimates of food availability in that area.

The impact of newly identified loci on coronary heart disease, stroke and total mortality in the MORGAM prospective cohorts

Recently, genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as being associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We estimated the effect of these SNPs on incident CHD, stroke and total mortality in the prospective cohorts of the MORGAM Project. We studied cohorts from Finland, Sweden, France and Northern Ireland (total N=33,282, including 1,436 incident CHD events and 571 incident stroke events). The lead SNPs at seven loci identified thus far and additional SNPs (in total 42) were genotyped using a case-cohort design.We estimated the effect of the SNPs on disease history at baseline, disease events during follow-up and classic risk factors. Multiple testing was taken into account using false discovery rate (FDR) analysis. SNP rs1333049 on chromosome 9p21.3 was associated with both CHD and stroke (HR5=.20, 95% CI 1.08-1.34 for incident CHD events and 1.15, 0.99-1.34 for incident stroke). SNP rs11670734 (19q12) was associated with total mortality and stroke. SNP rs2146807 (10q11.21) showed some association with the fatality of acute coronary event. SNP rs2943634 (2q36.3) was associated with high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and SNPs rs599839, rs4970834 (1p13.3) and rs17228212 (15q22.23) were associated with non-HDL cholesterol. SNPs rs2943634 (2q36.3) and rs12525353 (6q25.1) were associated with blood pressure. These findings underline the need for replication studies in prospective settings and confirm the candidacy of several SNPs that may play a role in the etiology of cardiovascular disease.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Excess mortality in Type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of population-based cohorts

Aims: Systematic review of mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes and examination of factors explaining the mortality variation between studies. 
Methods: Relevant studies were identified from systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. Observed and expected numbers of deaths were extracted, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate association between mortality and study/country characteristics.
Results: Thirteen relevant publications with mortality data were identified describing 23 independent studies. SMRs varied markedly ranging from 0 to 854 (chi-squared = 70.68,df = 21, p<0.0001). Significant associations were observed between SMR and mid-year of follow-up [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95, 95 % CI 0.91–0.99 equivalent to a 5 % decrease per year], between SMR and infant mortality rate (IRR 1.07, 95 % CI 1.02–1.12, a 7 % increase for each death per 1,000 live births) and, after omitting an outlier, between SMR and health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (IRR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68–0.93, a 21 % decrease for each one percent increase in GDP). No relationship was detected between SMR and a country’s childhood diabetes incidence rate or GDP.
Conclusions: Excess mortality in childhood-/adolescent diagnosed Type 1 diabetes is apparent across countries worldwide. Excesses were less marked in more recent studies and in countries with lower infant mortality and higher health expenditure.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.