O regime de chuvas em Pesqueira

The authors studied the rainfall in Pesqueira (Pernambuco, Brasil) in a period of 48 years (1910 through 1957) by the method of orthogonal polynomials, degrees up to the fourth having been tried. None of them was significant, so that it seems that no trend is present. The mean observed was 679.00 mm., with standard error of the mean 205.5 mm., and a 30.3% coefficient of variation. The 95% level of probability would include annual rainfall from 263.9 up to 1094.1mm.

Variação do regime de umidade do solo durante o ciclo fenológico de plantas de batata

Neste trabalho foram analisadas as relações entre a produção, o desenvolvimento vegetativo e a evapotranspiração de uma cultura de batata (Solanum tuberosum L.) submetida à três regimes de umidade, definidos pelos valores assumidos pelo potencial matricial da água do solo antes de se proceder as irrigações (-0,5; -1,0 e -5,0 bares) em três estádios de desenvolvimento das plantas. Com respeito à produção de tubérculos, ficou evidenciado que por ocasião da tuberização e desenvolvimento de um grande número de tubérculos, as plantas revelaram uma maior sensibilidade à redução da umidade do solo. Assim, ocorrendo deficits moderados (-1,0 bar) no período inicial de desenvolvimento, a produção não foi significativamente afetada. Isto foi atribuído, em parte, à recuperação parcial do crescimento vegetativo no estádio subseqüente, quando foram restabelecidas condições mais adequadas de umidade no solo. O mesmo não se verificou no tratamento submetido a deficits mais severos (-5,0 bares) no estádio inicial. Neste caso, o crescimento foi quase irreversivelmente reduzido, contribuindo para diminuir a produção e a eficiência de utilização de água pelas plantas. A redução da umidade do solo, a partir dos 60 dias após a emergência das plantas, não afetou a produção de tubérculos. Este procedimento concorreu para aumentar significativamente a eficiência de utilização de água. Além disso, havendo suspensão total da irrigação neste período, a senescência foi antecipada em 16 dias, em relação aos tratamentos submetidos a níveis de umidade mais elevados. O desenvolvimento vegetativo e a produção não foram igualmente afetados pela redução da umidade do solo. Conseqüentemente, o crescimento das plantas não parece se constituir em um índice absoluto da produção de tubérculos de batata.

Dependência do crescimento das plantas ao regime de umidade do solo

A produção de uma planta resulta do desenvolvimento integrado de inúmeros processos fisiológicos que, por sua vez, apresentam considerável individualidade nas interrelações com o meio ambiente. Neste trabalho foi observado o crescimento de plantas de batata (Solanum tuberosum L.), em condições de campo, quando submetidas a três regimes de umidade do solo, individualizados em três estádios fenológicos. O desenvolvimento vegetativo foi avaliado através de estimativas semanais da área foliar. Os resultados mostraram que ao final do primeiro estágio (cerca de 25 dias após a emergência das plantas) o desenvolvimento vegetativo nos tratamentos irrigados quando o potencial matricial da água do solo atingia -0,5 bar, superou, em cerca de 34%, àquele verificado nas plantas submetidas a déficits híbridos moderados (-1,0 bar) e, em aproximadamente 80%, aquelas sujeitas a déficits mais severos (-5,0 bares). Entretanto, a limitação do crescimento no primei 6 ro caso, foi parcialmente recuperada após o restabelecimento de condições mais adequadas de umidade no solo, no estádio intermediário. O mesmo não foi verificado onde ocorreram déficits hídricos mais severos no estádio inicial, quando o crescimento foi quase irreversivelmente reduzido. A intensa desidratação imposta após o completo desenvolvimento vegetativo apressou a senescência das plantas em relação aos tratamentos melhores supridos com água.

Nutrição mineral do trigo I: Produção de matéria seca sob regime de sequeiro e irrigado em latossolo roxo

O trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de determinar a produção de matéria seca na planta pelos cultivares de trigo BH 1146, de porte alto e com tolerância a deficiência hídrica e IAC 24 - Tucuruí, de porte baixo e com média tolerância e deficiência hídrica, sendo ambas de ciclo médio, em duas disponibilidades de água, sequeiro e irrigado. 0 experimento foi conduzido em Latossolo Roxo, distrófico-argiloso, adubado com 20 kg de N e 90 kg de P2O5 por hectare. Para determinação do peso da matéria seca produzida das plantas, foram coletados ao 10 dias de idade, início de perfilhamento; aos 30 dias, elongamento do colmo; aos 50 dias, emborrachamento; aos 70 dias floração, aos 90 dias, grão leitoso; e aos 110 dias, maturação. Os resultados mostram que a irrigação determina mais acúmulo de matéria seca por planta e matéria Seca por área, nas duas cultivares e em todas as idades.

On the identification of monetary (and other) shocks

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we construct a DSGE model which spells out explicitly the instrumentation of monetary policy. The interest rate is determined every period depending on the supply and demand for reserves which in turn are affected by fundamental shocks: unforeseeable changes in cash withdrawal, autonomous factors, technology and government spending. Unexpected changes in the monetary conditions of the economy are interpreted as monetary shocks. We show that these monetary shocks have the usual effects on economic activity without the need of imposing additional frictions as limited participation in asset markets or sticky prices. Second, we show that this view of monetary policy may have important consequences for empirical research. In the model, the contemporaneous correlations between interest rates, prices and output are due to the simultaneous effect of all fundamental shocks. We provide an example where these contemporaneous correlations may be misinterpreted as a Taylor rule. In addition, we use the sign of the impact responses of all shocks on output, prices and interest rates derived from the model to identify the sources of shocks in the data.

Credit markets and the propagation of monetary policy shocks

This paper analyzes the propagation of monetary policy shocks through the creation of credit in an economy. Models of the monetary transmission mechanism typically feature responses which last for a few quarters contrary to what the empirical evidence suggests. To propagate the impact of monetary shocks over time, these models introduce adjustment costs by which agents find it optimal to change their decisions slowly. This paper presents another explanation that does not rely on any sort of adjustment costs or stickiness. In our economy, agents own assets and make occupational choices. Banks intermediate between agents demanding and supplying assets. Our interpretation is based on the way banks create credit and how the monetary authority affects the process of financial intermediation through its monetary policy. As the central bank lowers the interest rate by buying government bonds in exchange for reserves, high productive entrepreneurs are able to borrow more resources from low productivity agents. We show that this movement of capital among agents sets in motion a response of the economy that resembles an expansionary phase of the cycle.

Endogenous capacity utilization and the asymmetric effects of monetary policy

This paper investigates the role of variable capacity utilization as a source of asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and economic activity within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The source of the asymmetry is directly linked to the bottlenecks and stock-outs that emerge from the existence of capacity constraints in the real side of the economy. Money has real effects due to the presence of rigidities in households' portfolio decisions in the form of a Luces-Fuerst 'limited participation' constraint. The model features variable capacity utilization rates across firms due to demand uncertainty. A monopolistic competitive structure provides additional effects through optimal mark-up changes. The overall message of this paper for monetary policy is that the same actions may have different effects depending on the capacity utilization rate of the economy.

Why did London become the main money market? Monetary Policy, Arbitrage and European Money Market Integration in 18th century

How did the leading capital market start to attract international bullion? Why did London become the main money market? Monetary regulations, including the charges for minting money and the restrictions on bullion exchange, have played the key role in defining the direction of the flow of international bullion. Countries that abolished minting charges and permitted the free movement of bullion were able to attract international bullion, and countries that applied minting taxes suffered an outflow of bullion. In these cases monetary authorities tried to limit bullion movement through prohibitions on domestic bullion exchange at a free price, and tariffs and quantitative restrictions on bullion exports. The paper illustrates the logic of international monetary flow in the 18th century, using empirical evidence for England, France and Spain. The first section defines and measures monetary policy, and the second section introduces minting charges into the arbitrage equation in order to explain the logic of bullion flow between the pairs of nations England-France, England-Spain and France-Spain. The conclusion emphasises the importance of monetary policy in the creation of leading money markets.

Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Habits in Consumption

While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a humpshaped output response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies, there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly,external habits) on optimal policy. In this paper we consider the implications of external habits for optimal monetary policy, when those habits either exist at the level of the aggregate basket of consumption goods (‘superficial’ habits) or at the level of individual goods (‘deep’ habits: see Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2006)). External habits generate an additional distortion in the economy, which implies that the flex-price equilibrium will no longer be efficient and that policy faces interesting new trade-offs and potential stabilisation biases. Furthermore, the endogenous mark-up behaviour, which emerges when habits are deep, can also significantly affect the optimal policy response to shocks, as well as dramatically affecting the stabilising properties of standard simple rules.

3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer- tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper we propose more general STAR transition functions which encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric e¤ects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another, and considers threshold e¤ects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three di¤erent exchange rate data-sets, one for developing countries, and o¢ cial nominal exchange rates, the sec- ond emerging market economies using black market exchange rates and the third for OECD economies.

When is Monetary Policy All we Need?

We consider optimal monetary and scal policies in a New Keynesian model of a small open economy with sticky prices and wages. In this benchmark setting monetary policy is all we need - analytical results demonstrate that variations in government spending should play no role in the stabilization of shocks. In extensions we show, rstly, that this is even when true when allowing for in ation inertia through backward-looking rule-of-thumb price and wage-setting, as long as there is no discrepancy between the private and social evaluation of the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure. Secondly, the optimal neutrality of government spending is robust to the issuance of public debt. In the presence of debt government spending will deviate from the optimal steady-state but only to the extent required to cover the deficit, not to provide any additional macroeconomic stabilization. However, unlike government spending variations in tax rates can play a complementary role to monetary policy, as they change relative prices rather than demand.