Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Novel method to construct a quality map for phase unwrapping based on modulation and the phase gradient

A novel method to construct a quality map, called modulation-phase-gradient variance (MPGV), is proposed, based on modulation and the phase gradient. The MPGV map is successfully applied to two phase-unwrapping algorithms - the improved weighted least square and the quality-guided unwrapping algorithm. Both simulated and experimental data testify to the validity of our proposed quality map. Moreover, the unwrapped-phase results show that the new quality map can have higher reliability than the conventional phase-derivative variance quality map in helping to unwrap noisy, low-modulation, and/or discontinuous phase maps. (c) 2006 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Novel method to construct a quality map for phase unwrapping based on modulation and the phase gradient

A novel method to construct a quality map, called modulation-phase-gradient variance (MPGV), is proposed, based on modulation and the phase gradient. The MPGV map is successfully applied to two phase-unwrapping algorithms - the improved weighted least square and the quality-guided unwrapping algorithm. Both simulated and experimental data testify to the validity of our proposed quality map. Moreover, the unwrapped-phase results show that the new quality map can have higher reliability than the conventional phase-derivative variance quality map in helping to unwrap noisy, low-modulation, and/or discontinuous phase maps. (c) 2006 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

I. The effect of droplet solidification upon two-phase flow in a rocket nozzle. II. A kinetic theory investigation of some condensation-evaporation phenomena by a moment method

Part I:

The perturbation technique developed by Rannie and Marble is used to study the effect of droplet solidification upon two-phase flow in a rocket nozzle. It is shown that under certain conditions an equilibrium flow exists, where the gas and particle phases have the same velocity and temperature at each section of the nozzle. The flow is divided into three regions: the first region, where the particles are all in the form of liquid droplets; a second region, over which the droplets solidify at constant freezing temperature; and a third region, where the particles are all solid. By a perturbation about the equilibrium flow, a solution is obtained for small particle slip velocities using the Stokes drag law and the corresponding approximation for heat transfer between the particle and gas phases. Singular perturbation procedure is required to handle the problem at points where solidification first starts and where it is complete. The effects of solidification are noticeable.

Part II:

When a liquid surface, in contact with only its pure vapor, is not in the thermodynamic equilibrium with it, a net condensation or evaporation of fluid occurs. This phenomenon is studied from a kinetic theory viewpoint by means of moment method developed by Lees. The evaporation-condensation rate is calculated for a spherical droplet and for a liquid sheet, when the temperatures and pressures are not too far removed from their equilibrium values. The solutions are valid for the whole range of Knudsen numbers from the free molecule to the continuum limit. In the continuum limit, the mass flux rate is proportional to the pressure difference alone.

Part I. Approximate Hartree-Fock wavefunctions one-electron properties and electronic structure of the water molecule. Part II. Perturbation-variational calculation of the nuclear spin-spin isotope coupling constant in HD

Part I

Several approximate Hartree-Fock SCF wavefunctions for the ground electronic state of the water molecule have been obtained using an increasing number of multicenter s, p, and d Slater-type atomic orbitals as basis sets. The predicted charge distribution has been extensively tested at each stage by calculating the electric dipole moment, molecular quadrupole moment, diamagnetic shielding, Hellmann-Feynman forces, and electric field gradients at both the hydrogen and the oxygen nuclei. It was found that a carefully optimized minimal basis set suffices to describe the electronic charge distribution adequately except in the vicinity of the oxygen nucleus. Our calculations indicate, for example, that the correct prediction of the field gradient at this nucleus requires a more flexible linear combination of p-orbitals centered on this nucleus than that in the minimal basis set. Theoretical values for the molecular octopole moment components are also reported.

Part II

The perturbation-variational theory of R. M. Pitzer for nuclear spin-spin coupling constants is applied to the HD molecule. The zero-order molecular orbital is described in terms of a single 1s Slater-type basis function centered on each nucleus. The first-order molecular orbital is expressed in terms of these two functions plus one singular basis function each of the types e^-r/r and e^-r ln r centered on one of the nuclei. The new kinds of molecular integrals were evaluated to high accuracy using numerical and analytical means. The value of the HD spin-spin coupling constant calculated with this near-minimal set of basis functions is J_HD = +96.6 cps. This represents an improvement over the previous calculated value of +120 cps obtained without using the logarithmic basis function but is still considerably off in magnitude compared with the experimental measurement of J_HD = +43 0 ± 0.5 cps.

A kinetic theory description for external spherical flows with arbitrary Knudsen number by a moment method

The Maxwell integral equations of transfer are applied to a series of problems involving flows of arbitrary density gases about spheres. As suggested by Lees a two sided Maxwellian-like weighting function containing a number of free parameters is utilized and a sufficient number of partial differential moment equations is used to determine these parameters. Maxwell's inverse fifth-power force law is used to simplify the evaluation of the collision integrals appearing in the moment equations. All flow quantities are then determined by integration of the weighting function which results from the solution of the differential moment system. Three problems are treated: the heat-flux from a slightly heated sphere at rest in an infinite gas; the velocity field and drag of a slowly moving sphere in an unbounded space; the velocity field and drag torque on a slowly rotating sphere. Solutions to the third problem are found to both first and second-order in surface Mach number with the secondary centrifugal fan motion being of particular interest. Singular aspects of the moment method are encountered in the last two problems and an asymptotic study of these difficulties leads to a formal criterion for a "well posed" moment system. The previously unanswered question of just how many moments must be used in a specific problem is now clarified to a great extent.

I. The structure and properties of closed circular duplex DNA. II. Chemically interacting systems at equilibrium in a buoyant density gradient

I. The binding of the intercalating dye ethidium bromide to closed circular SV 40 DNA causes an unwinding of the duplex structure and a simultaneous and quantitatively equivalent unwinding of the superhelices. The buoyant densities and sedimentation velocities of both intact (I) and singly nicked (II) SV 40 DNAs were measured as a function of free dye concentration. The buoyant density data were used to determine the binding isotherms over a dye concentration range extending from 0 to 600 µg/m1 in 5.8 M CsCl. At high dye concentrations all of the binding sites in II, but not in I, are saturated. At free dye concentrations less than 5.4 µg/ml, I has a greater affinity for dye than II. At a critical amount of dye bound I and II have equal affinities, and at higher dye concentration I has a lower affinity than II. The number of superhelical turns, τ, present in I is calculated at each dye concentration using Fuller and Waring's (1964) estimate of the angle of duplex unwinding per intercalation. The results reveal that SV 40 DNA I contains about -13 superhelical turns in concentrated salt solutions.

The free energy of superhelix formation is calculated as a function of τ from a consideration of the effect of the superhelical turns upon the binding isotherm of ethidium bromide to SV 40 DNA I. The value of the free energy is about 100 kcal/mole DNA in the native molecule. The free energy estimates are used to calculate the pitch and radius of the superhelix as a function of the number of superhelical turns. The pitch and radius of the native I superhelix are 430 Å and 135 Å, respectively.

A buoyant density method for the isolation and detection of closed circular DNA is described. The method is based upon the reduced binding of the intercalating dye, ethidium bromide, by closed circular DNA. In an application of this method it is found that HeLa cells contain in addition to closed circular mitochondrial DNA of mean length 4.81 microns, a heterogeneous group of smaller DNA molecules which vary in size from 0.2 to 3.5 microns and a paucidisperse group of multiples of the mitochondrial length.

II. The general theory is presented for the sedimentation equilibrium of a macromolecule in a concentrated binary solvent in the presence of an additional reacting small molecule. Equations are derived for the calculation of the buoyant density of the complex and for the determination of the binding isotherm of the reagent to the macrospecies. The standard buoyant density, a thermodynamic function, is defined and the density gradients which characterize the four component system are derived. The theory is applied to the specific cases of the binding of ethidium bromide to SV 40 DNA and of the binding of mercury and silver to DNA.

Gradient force pattern, focal shift, and focal switch in an apodized optical system

In this paper, the evolution of the gradient force pattern, focal shift, and focal switch induced by a three-portion pure phase-shifting apodizer is numerically investigated in detail. The results show that the proposed apodizer may induce tunable gradient force on the particles in the focal region, focal shift, and focal switch. By adjusting the geometrical parameters of the phase-shifting apodizer, multiple traps may occur with changeable distance between them, and the shape of the optical trap also evolves evidently. More interestingly, for certain geometrical parameters of the proposed apodizer, by changing the phase shift of inner annular portion, the considerable focal shift may occur with focal switch accompanying, which is discussed to show that this kind of apodizer may be a very promising method of transporting trapped particles. © 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Construcción de un modelo predictivo de tipo Gradient boosting para ventas online

En este proyecto se describirá como construir un modelo predictivo de tipo gradient boosting para predecir el número de ventas online de un producto X del cual solo sabremos su número de identificación, teniendo en cuenta las campañas publicitarias y las características tanto cualitativas y cuantitativas de éste. Para ello se utilizarán y se explicarán las diferentes técnicas utilizadas, como son: la técnica de la validación cruzada y el Blending. El objetivo del proyecto es implementar el modelo así como explicar con exactitud cada técnica y herramienta utilizada y obtener un resultado válido para la competición propuesta en Kaggle con el nombre de Online Product Sales.