Bayesian longitudinal data analysis with mixed models and thick-tailed distributions using MCMC

Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.

Connection between the affine and conformal affine Toda models and their Hirota solution

It is shown that the affine Toda models (AT) constitute a gauge fixed version of the conformal affine Toda model (CAT). This result enables one to map every solution of the AT models into an infinite number of solutions of the corresponding CAT models, each one associated to a point of the orbit of the conformal group. The Hirota τ-functions are introduced and soliton solutions for the AT and CAT models associated to SL̂ (r+1) and SP̂ (r) are constructed.

Damage detection in a benchmark structure using AR-ARX models and statistical pattern recognition

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is related to the ability of monitoring the state and deciding the level of damage or deterioration within aerospace, civil and mechanical systems. In this sense, this paper deals with the application of a two-step auto-regressive and auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (AR-ARX) model for linear prediction of damage diagnosis in structural systems. This damage detection algorithm is based on the. monitoring of residual error as damage-sensitive indexes, obtained through vibration response measurements. In complex structures there are. many positions under observation and a large amount of data to be handed, making difficult the visualization of the signals. This paper also investigates data compression by using principal component analysis. In order to establish a threshold value, a fuzzy c-means clustering is taken to quantify the damage-sensitive index in an unsupervised learning mode. Tests are made in a benchmark problem, as proposed by IASC-ASCE with different damage patterns. The diagnosis that was obtained showed high correlation with the actual integrity state of the structure. Copyright © 2007 by ABCM.

In vitro evaluation of surface roughness of 4 resin composites after the toothbrushing process and methods to recover superficial smoothness.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the efficiency of repolishing, sealing with surface sealant, and the joining of both in decreasing the surface roughness of resin-based composites after a toothbrushing process. METHOD AND MATERIALS: Ten specimens of each composite (Alert, Z100, Definite, and Prodigy Condensable), measuring 2 mm in thickness and 4 mm in diameter, were made and submitted to finishing and polishing processes on both sides of the specimens using the Sof-Lex system. The specimens were then subjected to toothbrushing (30,000 cycles), and surface roughness (Ra) was analyzed with a Surfcorder SE 1700 profilometer. The upper surface of each composite was etched with 37% phosphoric acid, and the surface-penetrating sealant Protect-it was applied on 1 surface. The roughness of these surfaces was again measured. On the other side, the surface of the specimen was repolished, and the efficiency of this procedure was measured using the profilometer. The surface roughness resulting from the joining of the 2 methods was verified by applying, in the final stage, the surface-penetrating sealant on the repolished surface. Data were analyzed with analysis of variance and Tukey test (P <.05). RESULTS: Results showed that the lowest surface roughness values were obtained for Definite, Z100, and Prodigy Condensable after the repolishing process and after the repolishing plus sealing. For Alert, the joining of repolishing plus sealing promoted the lowest values of surface roughness. CONCLUSION: Of the resin-based composites, Alert demonstrated the highest values of surface roughness in all the techniques tested.

Doppler ultrasonography principles and methods of evaluation of the reproductive tract in mares

Background: Doppler ultrasonography is a non-invasive real time pulse-wave technique recently used for the transrectal study of the reproductive system hemodynamics in large animals. This technic is based in the Doppler Effect Principle that proposes the change in frequency of a wave for an observer (red blood cells) moving relative to the source of the respective wave (ultrasonic transducer). This method had showed to be effective and useful for the evaluation of the in vivo equine reproductive tract increasing the diagnostic, monitoring, and predictive capabilities of theriogenology in mares. However, an accurate and truthful ultrasonic exam requires the previous knowledge of the Doppler ultrasonography principles. Review: In recent years, the capabilities of ultrasound flow imaging have increased enormously. The current Doppler ultrasound machines offer three methods of evaluation that may be used simultaneously (triplex mode). In B-mode ultrasound, a linear array of transducers simultaneously scans a plane through the tissue that can be viewed as a two-dimensional gray-scale image on screen. This mode is primarily used to identify anatomically a structure for its posterior evaluation using colored ultrasound modes (Color or Spectral modes). Colored ultrasound images of flow, whether Color or Spectral modes, are essentially obtained from measurements of moving red cells. In Color mode, velocity information is presented as a color coded overlay on top of a B-mode image, while Pulsed Wave Doppler provides a measure of the changing velocity throughout the cardiac cycle and the distribution of velocities in the sample volume represented by a spectral graphic. Color images conception varies according to the Doppler Frequency that is the difference between the frequency of received echoes by moving blood red cells and wave frequency transmitted by the transducer. To produce an adequate spectral graphic it is important determine the position and size of the simple gate. Furthermore, blood flow velocity measurement is influence by the intersection angle between ultrasonic pulses and the direction of moving blood-red cells (Doppler angle). Objectively colored ultrasound exam may be done on large arteries of the reproductive tract, as uterine and ovary arteries, or directly on the target tissue (follicle, for example). Mesovarium and mesometrium attachment arteries also can be used for spectral evaluation of the equine reproductive system. Subjectively analysis of the ovarian and uterine vascular perfusion must be done directly on the corpus luteum, follicular wall and uterus (endometrium and myometrium associated), respectively. Power-flow imaging has greater sensitivity to weak blood flow and independent of the Doppler angle, improving the evaluation of vessels with small diameters and slow blood flow. Conclusion: Doppler ultrasonography principles, methods of evaluation and reproductive system anatomy have been described. This knowledge is essential for the competent equipment acquisition and precise collection and analysis of colored ultrasound images. Otherwise, the reporting of inconsistent and not reproducible findings may result in the discredit of Doppler technology ahead of the scientific veterinary community.

Modelos macroeconómicos y planificación en un porvenir incierto: la experiencia francesa = Macroeconomic models and planning in the context of an uncertain future: the French experience

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A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Structural Health Monitoring based on AR models and PZT sensors

This paper presents a new approach for damage detection in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems, which is based on the Electromechanical Impedance (EMI) principle and Autoregressive (AR) models. Typical applications of EMI in SHM are based on computing the Frequency Response Function (FRF). In this work the procedure is based on the EMI principle but the results are determined through the coefficients of AR models, which are computed from the time response of PZT transducers bonded to the monitored structure, and acting as actuator and sensors at the same time. The procedure is based on exciting the PZT transducers using a wide band chirp signal and getting its time response. The AR models are obtained in both healthy and damaged conditions and used to compute statistics indexes. Practical tests were carried out in an aluminum plate and the results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method. © 2012 IEEE.

Conceptos y métodos de cálculo de la relación de precios del intercambio exterior = The concept of terms of trade and methods of computation

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Conceptos y métodos de la programación por zonas para el desarrollo de la comunidad = Concepts and methods of area programming for community development

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Nota especial sobre los conceptos y métodos utilizados por la CEPAL en sus análisis del desarrollo económico = Concepts and methods used by ECLA in its analysis of economic development

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Latin American families: convergences and divergences in models and policies

Includes bibliography

Macroeconomic models and planning in the context of an uncertain future: the French experience

Includes bibliography

Stability of nonlinear system using takagi-sugeno fuzzy models and hyper-rectangle of LMIs

This paper presents a theorem based on the hyper-rectangle defined by the closed set of the time derivatives of the membership functions of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems. This result is also based on Linear Matrix Inequalities and allows the reduction of the conservatism of the stability analysis in the sense of Lyapunov. The theorem generalizes previous results available in the literature. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.