A Harrod modell strukturális stabilitása (Structural stability of the Harrod model)

In this study it is shown that the nontrivial hyperbolic fixed point of a nonlinear dynamical system, which is formulated by means of the adaptive expectations, corresponds to the unstable equilibrium of Harrod. We prove that this nonlinear dynamical (in the sense of Harrod) model is structurally stable under suitable economic conditions. In the case of structural stability, small changes of the functions (C1-perturbations of the vector field) describing the expected and the true time variation of the capital coefficients do not influence the qualitative properties of the endogenous variables, that is, although the trajectories may slightly change, their structure is the same as that of the unperturbed one, and therefore these models are suitable for long-time predictions. In this situation the critique of Lucas or Engel is not valid. There is no topological conjugacy between the perturbed and unperturbed models; the change of the growth rate between two levels may require different times for the perturbed and unperturbed models.

Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

An integrated flow and transport model to study the impact of mercury remediation strategies for East Fork Poplar Creek watershed, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

An integrated flow and transport model using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software was developed to predict the flow and transport of mercury, Hg(II), under varying environmental conditions. The model analyzed the impact of remediation scenarios within the East Fork Poplar Creek watershed of the Oak Ridge Reservation with respect to downstream concentration of mercury. The numerical simulations included the entire hydrological cycle: flow in rivers, overland flow, groundwater flow in the saturated and unsaturated zones, and evapotranspiration and precipitation time series. Stochastic parameters and hydrologic conditions over a five year period of historical hydrological data were used to analyze the hydrological cycle and to determine the prevailing mercury transport mechanism within the watershed. Simulations of remediation scenarios revealed that reduction of the highly contaminated point sources, rather than general remediation of the contaminant plume, has a more direct impact on downstream mercury concentrations.

Development of an integrated surface and subsurface model of Everglades National Park

An integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model of Everglades National Park (ENP) was developed using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 modeling software. The model has a resolution of 400 meters, covers approximately 1050 square miles of ENP, includes 110 miles of drainage canals with a variety of hydraulic structures, and processes hydrological information, such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, groundwater levels, canal discharges and levels, and operational schedules. Calibration was based on time series and probability of exceedance for water levels and discharges in the years 1987 through 1997. Model verification was then completed for the period of 1998 through 2005. Parameter sensitivity in uncertainty analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity of the regional Surficial Aquifer System, the Manning's roughness coefficient, and the leakage coefficient, which defines the canal-subsurface interaction. The model offers an enhanced predictive capability, compared to other models currently available, to simulate the flow regime in ENP and to forecast the impact of topography, water flows, and modifying operation schedules.

The role of recharge and evapotranspiration as hydraulic drivers of ion concentrations in shallow groundwater on Everglades tree islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

Hydrochemical and microbiological properties of groundwater from pristine aquifer sampled at the Lower Rhine Embayment

The hydrochemistry and the microbial diversity of a pristine aquifer system near Garzweiler, Germany next to the open-pit lignite mine Garzweiler 1, were characterized. Hydrogeochemical and isotopic data indicate a recent activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria in the Tertiary marine sands. The community structure in the aquifer was studied by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Up to 7.3 x 10**5 cells/ml were detected by DAPIstaining. Bacteria (identified by the probe EUB338) were dominant, representing 51.9% of the total cell number (DAPI). Another 25.7% of total cell were affiliated with the domain Archaea as identified by the probe ARCH915. Within the domain Bacteria, the beta-Proteobacteria were most abundant (21.0% of total cell counts). Using genusspecific probes for sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB), 2.5% of the total cells were identified as members of the genus Desulfotomaculum. This reflects the predominant role these microorganisms have been found to play in sulfatereducing zones of aquifers at other sites. Previously, all SRB cultured from this site were from the spore-forming genera Desulfotomaculum and Desulfosporosinus. Samples were taken after pumping for >= 40 min and after parameters such as temperature, pH, redox potential, oxygen and conductivity of the groundwater had remained stable for >= 15 min due to recharge of aquifer water. Hybridization and microscopy counts of hybridized and 4',6'-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI)- stained cells were performed as described in Snaidr et al., (1997, http://aem.asm.org/content/63/7/2884.full.pdf). Means were calculated from 10 to 20 randomly chosen fields on each filter section, corresponding to 800-1000 DAPI stained cells. Counting results were always corrected by subtracting signals observed with the probe NON338. Formamide concentrations and oligonucleotide probes used please see further details.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Examining the Longitudinal Stability of a Dual-Factor Model of Mental Health in Early Elementary School Students

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

On precise three-dimensional environment modeling via UAV-based photogrammetric systems

Abstract : Images acquired from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can provide data with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution for three-dimensional (3D) modeling. Solutions developed for this purpose are mainly operating based on photogrammetry concepts, namely UAV-Photogrammetry Systems (UAV-PS). Such systems are used in applications where both geospatial and visual information of the environment is required. These applications include, but are not limited to, natural resource management such as precision agriculture, military and police-related services such as traffic-law enforcement, precision engineering such as infrastructure inspection, and health services such as epidemic emergency management. UAV-photogrammetry systems can be differentiated based on their spatial characteristics in terms of accuracy and resolution. That is some applications, such as precision engineering, require high-resolution and high-accuracy information of the environment (e.g. 3D modeling with less than one centimeter accuracy and resolution). In other applications, lower levels of accuracy might be sufficient, (e.g. wildlife management needing few decimeters of resolution). However, even in those applications, the specific characteristics of UAV-PSs should be well considered in the steps of both system development and application in order to yield satisfying results. In this regard, this thesis presents a comprehensive review of the applications of unmanned aerial imagery, where the objective was to determine the challenges that remote-sensing applications of UAV systems currently face. This review also allowed recognizing the specific characteristics and requirements of UAV-PSs, which are mostly ignored or not thoroughly assessed in recent studies. Accordingly, the focus of the first part of this thesis is on exploring the methodological and experimental aspects of implementing a UAV-PS. The developed system was extensively evaluated for precise modeling of an open-pit gravel mine and performing volumetric-change measurements. This application was selected for two main reasons. Firstly, this case study provided a challenging environment for 3D modeling, in terms of scale changes, terrain relief variations as well as structure and texture diversities. Secondly, open-pit-mine monitoring demands high levels of accuracy, which justifies our efforts to improve the developed UAV-PS to its maximum capacities. The hardware of the system consisted of an electric-powered helicopter, a high-resolution digital camera, and an inertial navigation system. The software of the system included the in-house programs specifically designed for camera calibration, platform calibration, system integration, onboard data acquisition, flight planning and ground control point (GCP) detection. The detailed features of the system are discussed in the thesis, and solutions are proposed in order to enhance the system and its photogrammetric outputs. The accuracy of the results was evaluated under various mapping conditions, including direct georeferencing and indirect georeferencing with different numbers, distributions and types of ground control points. Additionally, the effects of imaging configuration and network stability on modeling accuracy were assessed. The second part of this thesis concentrates on improving the techniques of sparse and dense reconstruction. The proposed solutions are alternatives to traditional aerial photogrammetry techniques, properly adapted to specific characteristics of unmanned, low-altitude imagery. Firstly, a method was developed for robust sparse matching and epipolar-geometry estimation. The main achievement of this method was its capacity to handle a very high percentage of outliers (errors among corresponding points) with remarkable computational efficiency (compared to the state-of-the-art techniques). Secondly, a block bundle adjustment (BBA) strategy was proposed based on the integration of intrinsic camera calibration parameters as pseudo-observations to Gauss-Helmert model. The principal advantage of this strategy was controlling the adverse effect of unstable imaging networks and noisy image observations on the accuracy of self-calibration. The sparse implementation of this strategy was also performed, which allowed its application to data sets containing a lot of tie points. Finally, the concepts of intrinsic curves were revisited for dense stereo matching. The proposed technique could achieve a high level of accuracy and efficiency by searching only through a small fraction of the whole disparity search space as well as internally handling occlusions and matching ambiguities. These photogrammetric solutions were extensively tested using synthetic data, close-range images and the images acquired from the gravel-pit mine. Achieving absolute 3D mapping accuracy of 11±7 mm illustrated the success of this system for high-precision modeling of the environment.

Effect of grape seed extract on oxidative, color and sensory stability of pre-cooked, frozen, re-heated beef sausage model system

The processing of meats at the factory level can trigger the onset of lipid oxidation, which can lead to meat quality deterioration. Warmed over flavor is an off-flavor, which is associated with oxidative deterioration in meat. To avoid or delay the auto-oxidation process in meat products, synthetic and natural antioxidants have been successfully used. Grape (Vitis Vinifera) is of special interest due to its high content of phenolic compounds. Grape seed extract sold commercially as a dietary supplement, has the potential to reduce lipid oxidation and WOF in cooked ground beef when added at 1%. The objective of study 1 was to compare the antioxidant activity of natural antioxidants including grape seed extract and some herbs belonging to the Lamiaciae family: rosemary (Rosmarinus Officinalis), sage (Salvia Officinalis) and oregano (Origanum Vulgare) with commercial synthetic antioxidants like BHT, BHA, propyl gallate and ascorbic acid using the ORAC assay. All sample solutions were prepared to contain 1.8 gm sample/10 ml solvent. The highest antioxidant activity was observed for the grape seed extract sample (359.75 µM TE), while the lowest was observed for BHA, propyl gallate and rosemary also showed higher antioxidant potential with ORAC values above 300 μmol TE/g. ORAC values obtained for ascorbic acid and Sage were between 250-300μ mol TE/g while lowest values were obtained for Butylated Hydroxytoluene (28.50 µM TE). Based on the high ORAC values obtained for grape seed extract, we can conclude that byproducts of the wine/grape industry have antioxidant potential comparable to or better than those present in synthetic counterparts. The objective of study 2 was to compare three levels of grape seed extract (GSE) to commonly used antioxidants in a pre-cooked, frozen, stored beef and pork sausage model system. Antioxidants added for comparison with control included grape seed extract (100, 300, 500 ppm), ascorbic acid (AA, 100 ppm of fat) and propyl gallate (PG, 100 ppm of fat). Product was formed into rolls, frozen, sliced into patties, cooked on a flat griddle to 70C, overwrapped in PVC, and then frozen at –18C for 4 months. GSE- and PG-containing samples retained their fresh cooked beef odor and flavor longer (p<0.05) than controls during storage. Rancid odor and flavor scores of GSE-containing samples were lower (p<0.05) than those of controls after 4 months of storage. The L* value of all samples increased (p<0.05) during storage. Thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) of the control and AA-containing samples increased (p<0.05); those of GSE-containing samples did not change significantly (p>0.05) over the storage period.

Assessing land–ocean connectivity via submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the Ria Formosa Lagoon (Portugal): combining radon measurements and stable isotope hydrology

Natural radioactive tracer-based assessments of basin-scale submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) are well developed. However, SGD takes place in different modes and the flow and discharge mechanisms involved occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Quantifying SGD while discriminating its source functions therefore remains a major challenge. However, correctly identifying both the fluid source and composition is critical. When multiple sources of the tracer of interest are present, failure to adequately discriminate between them leads to inaccurate attribution and the resulting uncertainties will affect the reliability of SGD solute loading estimates. This lack of reliability then extends to the closure of local biogeochemical budgets, confusing measures aiming to mitigate pollution. Here, we report a multi-tracer study to identify the sources of SGD, distinguish its component parts and elucidate the mechanisms of their dispersion throughout the Ria Formosa – a seasonally hypersaline lagoon in Portugal. We combine radon budgets that determine the total SGD (meteoric + recirculated seawater) in the system with stable isotopes in water (δ2H, δ18O), to specifically identify SGD source functions and characterize active hydrological pathways in the catchment. Using this approach, SGD in the Ria Formosa could be separated into two modes, a net meteoric water input and another involving no net water transfer, i.e., originating in lagoon water re-circulated through permeable sediments. The former SGD mode is present occasionally on a multi-annual timescale, while the latter is a dominant feature of the system. In the absence of meteoric SGD inputs, seawater recirculation through beach sediments occurs at a rate of  ∼  1.4  ×  106 m3 day−1. This implies that the entire tidal-averaged volume of the lagoon is filtered through local sandy sediments within 100 days ( ∼  3.5 times a year), driving an estimated nitrogen (N) load of  ∼  350 Ton N yr−1 into the system as NO3−. Land-borne SGD could add a further  ∼  61 Ton N yr−1 to the lagoon. The former source is autochthonous, continuous and responsible for a large fraction (59 %) of the estimated total N inputs into the system via non-point sources, while the latter is an occasional allochthonous source capable of driving new production in the system.

Integration of a Sedimentation Module to a Hydrologic Model and its Application to a Mercury TMDL Analysis

This research is part of continued efforts to correlate the hydrology of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) and Bear Creek (BC) with the long term distribution of mercury within the overland, subsurface, and river sub-domains. The main objective of this study was to add a sedimentation module (ECO Lab) capable of simulating the reactive transport mercury exchange mechanisms within sediments and porewater throughout the watershed. The enhanced model was then applied to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) mercury analysis for EFPC. That application used historical precipitation, groundwater levels, river discharges, and mercury concentrations data that were retrieved from government databases and input to the model. The model was executed to reduce computational time, predict flow discharges, total mercury concentration, flow duration and mercury mass rate curves at key monitoring stations under various hydrological and environmental conditions and scenarios. The computational results provided insight on the relationship between discharges and mercury mass rate curves at various stations throughout EFPC, which is important to best understand and support the management mercury contamination and remediation efforts within EFPC.

Static load modelling and voltage stability indices

This paper analyzes the performance of some of the widely used voltage stability indices, namely, singular value, eigenvalue, and loading margin with different static load models. Well-known ZIP model is used to represent loads having components with different power to voltage sensitivities. Studies are carried out on a 10-bus power system and the New England 39-bus power system models. The effects of variation of load model on the performance of the voltage stability indices are discussed. The choice of voltage stability index in the context of load modelling is also suggested in this paper.