Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Economic growth and individual satisfaction in an agent-based economy

Macro and micro-economic perspectives are combined in an eco- nomic growth model. An agent-based modeling approach is used to develop an overlapping generation framework where endogenous growth is supported by work- ers that decide to study depending on their relative (skilled and unskilled) indi- vidual satisfaction. The micro perspective is based on individual satisfaction: an utility function computed from the variation of the relative income in both space and time. The macro perspective emerges from micro decisions, and, as in other growth models of this type, concerns an important allocative social decision the share of the working population that is engaged in producing ideas (skilled work- ers). Simulations show that production and satisfaction levels are higher when the evolution of income measured in both space and time are equally weighted.

Soil chemical attributes and leaf nutrients of Pacovan banana under two cover crops.

Banana is one of the most consumed fruits in the world, which is grown in most tropical countries. The objective of this work was to evaluate the main attributes of soil fertility in a banana crop under two cover crops and two root development locations. The work was conducted in Curaçá, BA, Brazil, between October 2011 and May 2013, using a randomized block design in split plot with five repetitions. Two cover crops were assessed in the plots, the cover 1 consisting of Pueraria phaseoloid es, and the cover 2 consisting of a crop mix with Sorghum bicolor, Ricinus commun is L., Canavalia ensiform is, Mucuna aterrima and Zea mays, and two soil sampling locations in the subplots, between plants in the banana rows (location 1) and between the banana rows (location 2). There were significant and independent effects for the cover crop and sampling location factors for the variables organic matter, Ca and P, and significant effects for the interaction between cover crops and sampling locations for the variables potassium, magnesium and total exchangeable bases. The cover crop mix and the between-row location presented the highest organic matter content. Potassium was the nutrient with the highest negative variation from the initial content and its leaf content was below the reference value, however not reducing the crop yield. The banana crop associated with crop cover using the crop mix provided greater availability of nutrients in the soil compared to the coverage with tropical kudzu.

Publishing and impact criteria, and their bearing on Translation Studies: In search of comparability

This paper questions the current concept of quality as used in research assessment rankings and peer review, with special reference to the link often established between impact and the way this impact is measured in the form of citation counting. Taking translation studies as a case study, we will offer a two-level approach to reveal both the macro- and micro-level biases that exist in this regard. We will first review three key aspects related to the idea of the quality of publications, namely peer review, journal indexing, and journal impact factor. We will then pinpoint some of the main macro-level problems regarding current practices and criteria as applied to translation studies, such as Thomson Reuters World of Science's journal coverage, citation patterns, and publication format. Next we will provide a micro-textual and practical perspective, focusing on citation counts and suggesting a series of corrective measures to increase comparability.

MULTIMODAL PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY NORTH SITE

The Pierre Auger Cosmic Ray Observatory North site employs a large array of surface detector stations (tanks) to detect the secondary particle showers generated by ultra-high energy cosmic rays. Due to the rare nature of ultra-high energy cosmic rays, it is important to have a high reliability on tank communications, ensuring no valuable data is lost. The Auger North site employs a peer-to-peer paradigm, the Wireless Architecture for Hard Real-Time Embedded Networks (WAHREN), designed specifically for highly reliable message delivery over fixed networks, under hard real-time deadlines. The WAHREN design included two retransmission protocols, Micro- and Macro- retransmission. To fully understand how each retransmission protocol increased the reliability of communications, this analysis evaluated the system without using either retransmission protocol (Case-0), both Micro- and Macro-retransmission individually (Micro and Macro), and Micro- and Macro-retransmission combined. This thesis used a multimodal modeling methodology to prove that a performance and reliability analysis of WAHREN was possible, and provided the results of the analysis. A multimodal approach was necessary because these processes were driven by different mathematical models. The results from this analysis can be used as a framework for making design decisions for the Auger North communication system.

IMPROVED SENSITIVITY OF RESONANT MASS SENSOR BASED ON MICRO TILTING PLATE AND MICRO CANTILEVER

Vapor sensors have been used for many years. Their applications range from detection of toxic gases and dangerous chemicals in industrial environments, the monitoring of landmines and other explosives, to the monitoring of atmospheric conditions. Microelectrical mechanical systems (MEMS) fabrication technologies provide a way to fabricate sensitive devices. One type of MEMS vapor sensors is based on mass changing detection and the sensors have a functional chemical coating for absorbing the chemical vapor of interest. The principle of the resonant mass sensor is that the resonant frequency will experience a large change due to a small mass of gas vapor change. This thesis is trying to build analytical micro-cantilever and micro-tilting plate models, which can make optimization more efficient. Several objectives need to be accomplished: (1) Build an analytical model of MEMS resonant mass sensor based on micro-tilting plate with the effects of air damping. (2) Perform design optimization of micro-tilting plate with a hole in the center. (3) Build an analytical model of MEMS resonant mass sensor based on micro-cantilever with the effects of air damping. (4) Perform design optimization of micro-cantilever by COMSOL. Analytical models of micro-tilting plate with a hole in the center are compared with a COMSOL simulation model and show good agreement. The analytical models have been used to do design optimization that maximizes sensitivity. The micro-cantilever analytical model does not show good agreement with a COMSOL simulation model. To further investigate, the air damping pressures at several points on the micro-cantilever have been compared between analytical model and COMSOL model. The analytical model is inadequate for two reasons. First, the model’s boundary condition assumption is not realistic. Second, the deflection shape of the cantilever changes with the hole size, and the model does not account for this. Design optimization of micro-cantilever is done by COMSOL.

Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy : a science and technology-based framework to assess and reduce nutrients to Iowa waters and the Gulf of Mexico (2016)

On November 19, 2012, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, Director Chuck Gipp from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and Dr. John Lawrence of Iowa State University announced the release of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy for public comment. A two-month public comment period and several informational meetings allowed the public to provide feedback on the draft strategy. Updates and improvements were made to the draft based on the public comments. The final version of the strategy was released May 29, 2013. The Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is a science and technology-based approach to assess and reduce nutrients delivered to Iowa waterways and the Gulf of Mexico. The strategy outlines voluntary efforts to reduce nutrients in surface water from both point sources, such as wastewater treatment plants and industrial facilities, and nonpoint sources, including farm fields and urban areas, in a scientific, reasonable and cost effective manner. The development of the strategy reflects more than two years of work led by the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Iowa Department of Natural Resources and Iowa State University. The scientific assessment to evaluate and model the effects of practices was developed through the efforts of 23 individuals representing five agencies or organizations, including scientists from ISU, IDALS, DNR, USDA Agricultural Research Service and USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. The strategy was developed in response to the 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan that calls for the 12 states along the Mississippi River to develop strategies to reduce nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico. The Iowa strategy follows the recommended framework provided by EPA in 2011 and is only the second state to complete a statewide nutrient reduction strategy. This strategy is the beginning. Operational plans are being developed and work is underway. This is a dynamic document that will evolve over time, and is a key step towards improving Iowa’s water quality. The impetus for this report comes from the Water Resources Coordination Council (WRCC) which states in its 2014‐15 Annual Report “Efforts are underway to improve understanding of the multiple nutrient monitoring efforts that may be available and can be compared to the nutrient WQ monitoring framework to identify opportunities and potential data gaps to better coordinate and prioritize future nutrient monitoring efforts.” This report is the culmination of those efforts.

Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy : a science and technology-based framework to assess and reduce nutrients to Iowa waters and the Gulf of Mexico (2014)

In May 2014, the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Iowa State University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources met to identify needed updates to the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy. Updates were necessary to keep the text of the strategy up¬‐to¬‐date based on current information and status of efforts related to the strategy. Proposed updates were presented to the Water Resources Coordinating Council (WRCC) at its July 29 meeting, along with the annual strategy progress report. Comments were requested from both the WRCC and the Watershed Planning Advisory Council. Based on those comments, the draft report was updated and presented to the WRCC again on September 18, and finalized following that meeting. Below is a summary of the updates that have been made to the May 29, 2013 strategy document.

Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy : a science and technology-based framework to assess and reduce nutrients to Iowa waters and the Gulf of Mexico (2013)

On November 19, 2012, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, Director Chuck Gipp from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and Dr. John Lawrence of Iowa State University announced the release of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy for public comment. A two-month public comment period and several informational meetings allowed the public to provide feedback on the draft strategy. Updates and improvements were made to the draft based on the public comments. The final version of the strategy was released May 29, 2013. The Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is a science and technology-based approach to assess and reduce nutrients delivered to Iowa waterways and the Gulf of Mexico. The strategy outlines voluntary efforts to reduce nutrients in surface water from both point sources, such as wastewater treatment plants and industrial facilities, and nonpoint sources, including farm fields and urban areas, in a scientific, reasonable and cost effective manner. The development of the strategy reflects more than two years of work led by the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Iowa Department of Natural Resources and Iowa State University. The scientific assessment to evaluate and model the effects of practices was developed through the efforts of 23 individuals representing five agencies or organizations, including scientists from ISU, IDALS, DNR, USDA Agricultural Research Service and USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. The strategy was developed in response to the 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan that calls for the 12 states along the Mississippi River to develop strategies to reduce nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico. The Iowa strategy follows the recommended framework provided by EPA in 2011 and is only the second state to complete a statewide nutrient reduction strategy. This strategy is the beginning. Operational plans are being developed and work is underway. This is a dynamic document that will evolve over time, and is a key step towards improving Iowa’s water quality. The impetus for this report comes from the Water Resources Coordination Council (WRCC) which states in its 2014‐15 Annual Report “Efforts are underway to improve understanding of the multiple nutrient monitoring efforts that may be available and can be compared to the nutrient WQ monitoring framework to identify opportunities and potential data gaps to better coordinate and prioritize future nutrient monitoring efforts.” This report is the culmination of those efforts.

Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy : a science and technology-based framework to assess and reduce nutrients to Iowa waters and the Gulf of Mexico (2012)

On November 19, 2012, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, Director Chuck Gipp from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and Dr. John Lawrence of Iowa State University announced the release of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy for public comment. A two-month public comment period and several informational meetings allowed the public to provide feedback on the draft strategy. Updates and improvements were made to the draft based on the public comments. The final version of the strategy was released May 29, 2013. The Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is a science and technology-based approach to assess and reduce nutrients delivered to Iowa waterways and the Gulf of Mexico. The strategy outlines voluntary efforts to reduce nutrients in surface water from both point sources, such as wastewater treatment plants and industrial facilities, and nonpoint sources, including farm fields and urban areas, in a scientific, reasonable and cost effective manner. The development of the strategy reflects more than two years of work led by the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Iowa Department of Natural Resources and Iowa State University. The scientific assessment to evaluate and model the effects of practices was developed through the efforts of 23 individuals representing five agencies or organizations, including scientists from ISU, IDALS, DNR, USDA Agricultural Research Service and USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. The strategy was developed in response to the 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan that calls for the 12 states along the Mississippi River to develop strategies to reduce nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico. The Iowa strategy follows the recommended framework provided by EPA in 2011 and is only the second state to complete a statewide nutrient reduction strategy. This strategy is the beginning. Operational plans are being developed and work is underway. This is a dynamic document that will evolve over time, and is a key step towards improving Iowa’s water quality. The impetus for this report comes from the Water Resources Coordination Council (WRCC) which states in its 2014‐15 Annual Report “Efforts are underway to improve understanding of the multiple nutrient monitoring efforts that may be available and can be compared to the nutrient WQ monitoring framework to identify opportunities and potential data gaps to better coordinate and prioritize future nutrient monitoring efforts.” This report is the culmination of those efforts.

Staff and students co-creating curricula in UK higher education: exploring process and evidencing value

Student engagement in learning and teaching is receiving a growing level of interest from policy makers, researchers, and practitioners. This includes opportunities for staff and students to co-create curricula, yet there are few examples within current literature which describe and critique this form of staff-student collaboration (Bovill (2013a), Healey et al (2014), Cook-Sather et al (2014). The competing agendas of neoliberalism and critical, radical pedagogies influence the policy and practice of staff and students co-creating curricula and, consequently, attempt to appropriate the purpose of it in different ways. Using case-based research methodology, my study presents analysis of staff and students co-creating curricula within seven universities. This includes 17 examples of practice across 14 disciplines. Using an inductive approach, I have examined issues relating to definitions of practice, conceptualisations of curricula, perceptions of value, and the relationship between practice and institutional strategy. I draw upon an interdisciplinary body of literature to provide the conceptual foundations for my research. This has been necessary to address the complexity of practice and includes literature relating to student engagement in learning and teaching, conceptual models of curriculum in higher education, approaches to evidencing value and impact, and critical theory and radical pedagogies. The study makes specific contributions to the wider scholarly debate by highlighting the importance of dialogue and conversational scholarship as well as identifying with participants what matters as well as what works as a means to evidence the value of collaborations. It also presents evidence of a new model of co-creating curricula and additional approaches to conceptualising curricula to facilitate collaboration. Analysis of macro and micro level data shows enactment of dialogic pedagogies within contexts of technical-rational strategy formation and implementation.

Cooperative learning in Thailand : professional development to enhance primary education

The overall purpose of this study was to develop a model to inform the design of professional development programs and the implementation of cooperative learning within Thai primary school mathematics classrooms. Action research design, with interviews, surveys and observations, was used for this study. Survey questionnaires and classroom observations investigated the factors that influence the implementation of cooperative learning strategies and academic achievement in Thai primary school mathematics classrooms. The teachers’ interviews and classroom observation also examined the factors that need to be addressed in teacher professional development programs in order to facilitate cooperative learning in Thai mathematics classrooms. The outcome of this study was a model consisting of two sets of criteria to inform the successful implementation of cooperative learning in Thai primary schools. The first set of criteria was for proposers and developers of professional development programs. This set consists of macro- and micro-level criteria. The macro-level criteria focus on the overall structure of professional development programs and how and when the professional development programs should be implemented. The micro-level criteria focused on the specific topics that need to be included in professional development programs. The second set of criteria was for Thai principals and teachers to facilitate the introduction of cooperative learning in their classrooms. The research outcome also indicated that the attainment of these cooperative learning strategies and skills had a positive impact on the students’ learning of mathematics.

Development of a process for dealing with underutilised Queensland government properties with heritage significance

This thesis addresses the contemporary issue of the control, restoration and potential for reuse of State Government-owned heritage properties with commercial potential. It attempts to reconcile the sometimes competing interests of the range of stakeholders in such properties, particularly those seeking to maximise economic performance and return on one hand and community expectations for heritage preservation and exhibition on the other. The matters are approached principally from the Government's position as asset owner/manager. It includes research into a number of key elements - including statutory, physical and economic parameters and an analysis of the legitimate requirements of all stakeholders. The thesis also recognises the need for innovation in approach and for the careful structuring and pre-planning of proposals on a project-by-project basis. On the matter of innovation, four case studies are included in the thesis to exhibit some approaches and techniques that have already been employed in addressing these issues. From this research base, a series of deductions at both a macro and micro level are established and a model for a rational decision-making process for dealing with such projects is developed as a major outcome of the work. Finally, the general model is applied to a specific project, the currently unused Port Office heritage site in the Brisbane Central Business District.

Education-to-work transitions of aspiring creatives

Despite some segments of the creative industries in Australia performing better than other segments in terms of earnings and employment growth, they all rely on highly skilled workers and face similar workforce challenges. Workers typically experience multiple entry attempts, spells of unemployment, short-term contracts, high degrees of mobility, casual/part-time employment within and outside the creative industries, and pressure to ensure their skills remain relevant. Skills shortages and gaps, an insufficient supply of high quality industry-ready graduates, difficulties in predicting demand for skills, weak linkages between industry and education providers, reliance on overseas talent in some segments, limited opportunities for workers to engage in skill development, and pressure on workers to keep abreast of technological developments are ongoing issues in the creative industries workforce. In response to these concerns, the Australian Research Council, three State Governments, industry, and a large vocational education and training (VET) provider funded Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to conduct the 60Sox project. This three-year project investigated the education, training, and work experiences of aspiring creatives defined as new entrants, recent graduates, and students enrolled in creative industries courses. It involved the largest survey of aspiring creatives ever undertaken in Australia, attracting 507 respondents, and a survey of 50 employers. Using the framework proposed by Hannan, Raffe, and Smyth (1996), this article presents findings from an analysis of the macro and micro labour market outcomes of aspiring creatives using data from the two 60Sox project surveys and publicly available sources. The analysis confirmed that many graduates of creative industries courses who participated in the 60Sox survey and the national surveys for the National Centre for Vocational Education Research and Graduate Careers Australia were struggling to make a successful transition from education to work. This article also discusses the causes of this key finding and possible solutions to address transition issues.

Patterns

In recent years there has been widespread interest in patterns, perhaps provoked by a realisation that they constitute a fundamental brain activity and underpin many artificial intelligence systems. Theorised concepts of spatial patterns including scale, proportion, and symmetry, as well as social and psychological understandings are being revived through digital/parametric means of visualisation and production. The effect of pattern as an ornamental device has also changed from applied styling to mediated dynamic effect. The interior has also seen patterned motifs applied to wall coverings, linen, furniture and artefacts with the effect of enhancing aesthetic appreciation, or in some cases causing psychological and/or perceptual distress (Rodemann 1999). ----- ----- While much of this work concerns a repeating array of surface treatment, Philip Ball’s The Self- Made Tapestry: Pattern Formation in Nature (1999) suggests a number of ways that patterns are present at the macro and micro level, both in their formation and disposition. Unlike the conventional notion of a pattern being the regular repetition of a motif (geometrical or pictorial) he suggests that in nature they are not necessarily restricted to a repeating array of identical units, but also include those that are similar rather than identical (Ball 1999, 9). From his observations Ball argues that they need not necessarily all be the same size, but do share similar features that we recognise as typical. Examples include self-organized patterns on a grand scale such as sand dunes, or fractal networks caused by rivers on hills and mountains, through to patterns of flow observed in both scientific experiments and the drawings of Leonardo da Vinci.