Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009

Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

Enterprise risk management adoption: An empirical investigation of its effects on firm performance

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is gaining relevance among financial and non-financial companies but its benefits still are uncertain. This paper aims at investigating the relationship between ERM adoption and firm performance based on a sample of 1130 non-financial companies belonging to the STOXX® index. A content analysis of individual accounts is performed to distinguish adopters, and a regression analysis explores the effect of ERM adoption on firm performance, proxied by Tobin’s Q. The findings suggest that there is a statistical significant positive effect of ERM adoption on firm performance, meaning that firms are benefiting from the implementation of this process.

Toxoplasma gondii infection: seroprevalence and associated risk factors among primary schoolchildren in Lagos City, Southern Nigeria

INTRODUCTION: Toxoplasma gondii infection has been described as the most widespread zoonotic infection of humans and other animals. Information concerning T. gondii infection among schoolchildren is unavailable in Lagos City, Nigeria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study investigated the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with T. gondii infection among primary schoolchildren (PSC) from a community located in the center of Lagos, southern Nigeria, from November 2013 to March 2014. A total of 382 PSC were screened for the presence of sera anti-T. gondii antibodies using a latex agglutination test (TOXO Test-MT, Tokyo, Japan). A cutoff titer of ≥ 1:32 was considered positive, while titers ≥ 1:1,024 indicated high responders. Questionnaires were also used to obtain data on possible risk factors from parents/guardians. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 24% (91/382), and 83.5% (76/91) of seropositive PSC were classified as high responders. Among the risk factors tested, including contact with cats and soil, consumption of raw meat and vegetables, and drinking unboiled water, none showed statistical significance after multivariate adjustment. No associations were observed among age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and parents' occupation/educational level. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study show evidence of active infection, and hence, there is need for urgent preventive measures in this city. Further investigation is required to clarify the transmission routes. Policy makers also need to initiate prevention and control programs to protect pregnant women and immunocompromised patients in particular because they are more severely affected by T. gondii infection.

Basic sanitation, socioeconomic conditions, and degree of risk for the presence and maintenance of malaria in a low-transmission area in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:This study aimed to evaluate basic sanitation and socioeconomic indicators, reported cases of malaria, and risk of contracting malaria in the Ananindeua municipality, State of Pará.METHODS:Data on basic sanitation and socioeconomic dimensions were taken from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics [ Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)] 2010 census. Epidemiological malaria information was taken from the Epidemiological Malaria Surveillance Information System [ Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica de Malária (SIVEP/Malaria)], between 2003 and 2013 of the Ministry of Health and from the SIVEP/Malaria forms of the municipality's Endemic Diseases Unit for 2,013 cases.RESULTS:Our data do not confirm the correlation among indicators of basic sanitation, socioeconomic conditions, and water supply with malaria cases. Of the 1,557 cases evaluated, most were caused by Plasmodium vivax , with rare cases of Plasmodium falciparum and mixed infections. There were 756 notifications in 2003. The number of reported cases was sharply reduced between 2006 and 2012, but a 142-case outbreak occurred in 2013. Ananindeua municipality's Annual Parasite Index indicated low risk in 2003 and no risk in other years, and the 2,013 cases were predominantly male individuals aged ≥40 years.CONCLUSIONS:Our data confirm the non-endemicity of malaria in the Ananindeua municipality, as the Annual Parasite Indices described for the years 2004-2013 classify it as a risk-free area. However, the 2013 outbreak indicates the need to strengthen prevention, surveillance, and control activities to reduce the risk of new outbreaks and consequent economic and social impacts on the population.

Predictive value of the ankle-brachial index in the evaluation of intermittent claudication

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the ankle-brachial index (ABI) could be used to predict the prognosis for a patient with intermittent claudication (IC). We studied 611 patients prospectively during 28 months of follow-up. We analyzed the predictive power of using various levels of ABI - 0.30 to 0.70 at 0.05 increments - in terms of the measure's specificity (association with a favorable outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy) and sensitivity (association with a poor outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy). We found that using an ABI of 0.30 as a cut-off value produced the lowest margin of error overall, but the predictive power was still low with respect to identifying the patients with a poor prognosis after non-aggressive therapeutic treatment. Further study is needed to perhaps identify a second factor that could increase the sensitivity of the test.

Systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia in relation to body mass index: evaluation of a Brazilian population

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia in a Brazilian population in relation to body mass index. METHOD: Retrospective evaluation of 1213 adults (mean age: 45.2 ± 12.8; 80.6% females) divided into groups according to body mass index [normal (18.5 - 24.4 kg/m²); overweight (25 - 29.9 kg/m²); grade 1 obesity (30 - 34.9 kg/m²); grade 2 obesity (35 - 39.9 kg/m²), and grade 3 obesity (> 40 kg/m²)]. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were analyzed in each group. The severity of cardiovascular risk was determined. High-risk patients were considered those reporting 2 or more of the following factors: systemic hypertension, HDL < 35 mg/dL, total cholesterol > 240 mg/dL, triglycerides > 200 mg/dL when HDL < 35 mg/dL, and glycemia > 126 mg/dL. Moderate-risk patients were those reporting 2 or more of the following factors: systemic hypertension, HDL < 45, triglycerides > 200 mg/dL, and total cholesterol > 200 mg/dL. RESULTS: The prevalence of systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypertriglyceridemia, and low HDL-cholesterol levels increased along with weight, but the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia did not. The odds ratio adjusted for gender and age, according to grade of obesity compared with patients with normal weight were respectively 5.9, 8.6, and 14.8 for systemic hypertension, 3.8, 5.8, and 9.2 for diabetes mellitus and 1.2, 1.3, and 2.6 for hypertriglyceridemia. We also verified that body mass index was positively related to cardiovascular high risk (P < .001) CONCLUSION: In our population, cardiovascular risk increased along with body mass index.

Study to determine the cardiovascular risk ofthe population of Guimarães/Vizela, includingthe prevalence of arterial stiffness and early vascular aging syndrome

Tese de Doutoramento em Medicina.

Risk factors for atherosclerosis in students of a private university in São Paulo - Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the risk profile for atherosclerosis (AS) in adolescents and young adults of a private university in São Paulo. METHODS: Clinical, nutritional, and laboratory parameters were evaluated in 209 students of both genders aged 17 to 25 years. In addition to determination of the lipid profile, the association of its abnormal values with other risk factors for AS was also investigated. RESULTS: Increased levels of total cholesterol, LDL-C and triglycerides (TG) were observed in 9.1%, 7.6% and 16.3% of the students, respectively, and decreased levels of HDL-C in 8.6% of them. Prevalence of the remaining risk factors analyzed was elevated: sedentary life style (78.9%); high intake of total fat (77.5%); high cholesterol intake (35.9%); smoking, hypertension (15.8%) and obesity (7.2%). There was an association between elevated LDL-C and TG levels and sedentary life style and body mass index. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of risk factors for AS in young individuals draws attention to the need for adopting preventive plans.

Risk factors for atherosclerosis in an elderly out patient population in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.

Analysis of the risk factors for allograft vasculopathy in asymptomatic patients after cardiac transplantation

OBJECTIVE: To study the influence of immune and nonimmune risk factors on the development of allograft vasculopathy after cardiac transplantation. METHODS: We studied 39 patients with a mean age of 46±12 years. The following variables were analyzed: weight (kg), body mass index (kg/m²), donor's age and sex, rejection episodes in the first and second years after transplantation, systolic and diastolic blood pressures (mmHg), total cholesterol and fractions (mg/dL), triglycerides (mg/dL), diabetes, and cytomegalovirus infection. The presence of allograft vasculopathy was established through coronary angiography. RESULTS: Allograft vasculopathy was observed in 15 (38%) patients. No statistically significant difference was observed between the two groups in regard to hypertension, cytomegalovirus infection, diabetes, donor's sex and age, rejection episodes in the first and second years after transplantation, and cholesterol levels. We observed a tendency toward higher levels of triglycerides in the group with disease. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed statistically significant differences between the two groups when we analyzed the body mass index (24.53±4.3 versus 28.11±4.6; p=0.019). CONCLUSION: Body mass index was an important marker of allograft vasculopathy in the population studied.

Lipid profile of nutrition students and its association with cardiovascular disease risk factors

OBJECTIVE: To describe the lipid profile and to verify its relationship with cardiovascular disease risk factors in students at a public university in São Paulo. METHODS: After obtaining clinical, anthropomorphic, and lipid profile data from 118 students, variables of the lipid profile were related to other risk factors. RESULTS: The mean age of the students was 20.3 years (SD=1.5). The risk of cardiovascular disease was characterized by a positive family history of ischemic heart disease in 38.9%; sedentariness in 35.6%; limiting and increased total and LDL-C cholesterol levels in 17.7% and 10.2%, respectively; decreased HDL-C levels in 11.1%; increased triglyceride levels in 11.1%; body mass index >25 in 8.5%, and smoking in 6.7% of the subjects. Students' diet was found to be inadequate regarding protein, total fat, saturated fat, sodium, and fiber contents. A statistically significant association between cholesterol and contraceptive use, between HDL-C and contraceptive use, age and percent body fat, and triglycerides and percent lean weight was observed. CONCLUSION: A high prevalence of some risk factors of cardiovascular disease as well as the association between these factors with altered lipid profiles was observed in the young population studied.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Disease in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul

OBJECTIVE - To determine the risk factors prevalence for coronary artery disease in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and to identify their relation with the age bracket. METHODS - We carried out an observational, cross-sectional study of 1,066 adults older than 20 years in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul. We investigated the risk factors: familial antecedents, systemic arterial hypertension, high levels of cholesterol and glycemia, overweight/obesity, smoking and sedentary lifestyle. A standardized questionnaire completed at the patients' dwellings by health agents were used; the data were stored in an EPI-INFO software database. The results were expressed with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS - The sample composition was of 51.8% females. The risk factors prevalences were: 1) sedentary lifestyle 71.3%; 2) familial antecedents: 57.3%; 3) overweight/obesity (body mass index >25): 54.7%; 4) smokers: 33.9%; 5) hypertension: 31.6% (considering >140/90mmHg) and 14.4% (considering >160/95mmHg); 6) high glycemia (>126 mg/dL): 7%; 7) high cholesterol >240 mg/dL): 5.6%. CONCLUSION - The prevalence of the major risk factors for coronary artery disease in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul could be determined in a study that integrated public and private institutions.

Detection of Altered Risk Factors in Hospitalized Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess biochemical, anthropometric, and dietary variables considered risk factors for coronary artery disease. METHODS: Using anthropometrics, dietary allowance, and blood biochemistry, we assessed 84 patients [54 males (mean age of 55± 8 years) and 30 females (mean age of 57±7 years)], who had severe ( > or = 70% coronary artery obstruction) and nonsevere forms of coronary artery disease determined by cardiac catheterization. The severe form of the disease prevailed in 70% of the males and 64% of the females, and a high frequency of familial antecedents (92% ' 88%) and history of acute myocardial infarction (80% ' 70%) were observed. Smoking predominated among males (65%) and diabetes mellitus among females (43%). RESULTS: Males and females had body mass index and body fat above the normal values. Females with nonsevere lesions had HDL > 35 mg/dL, and this constituted a discriminating intergroup indicator. Regardless of the severity of the disease, hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia were found among females, and cholesterolemia > 200 mg/dL in both sexes, but only males had LDL fraction > 160 mg/dL and homocysteine > 11.7 mmol/L. The male dietary allowance was inadequate in nutrients for homocysteine metabolism and in nutrients with an antioxidant action, such as the vitamins B6, C, and folate. Individuals of both sexes had a higher lipid and cholesterol intake and an inadequate consumption of fiber. The diet was classified as high-protein, high-fat, and low-carbohydrate. CONCLUSION: The alterations found had no association with the severity of lesions, indicating the need for more effective nutritional intervention.

Lipid profile and cardiovascular risk in two Amazonian populations

OBJECTIVE: To compare the lipid profiles and coronary heart disease risks of 2 Brazilian Amazonian populations as follows: a riverside population (village of Vigia) and an urban population (city of Belém in the state of Pará). METHODS: Fifty individuals controlled for age and sex were assessed in each region, and the major risk factors for coronary heart disease were analyzed. RESULTS: According to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP III) and using the Framingham score, both populations had the same absolute risk of events (Vigia = 5.4 ± 1 vs Belém = 5.7 ± 1), although the population of Vigia had a lower consumption of saturated fat (P<0.0001), a greater consumption of mono- and polyunsaturated fat (P<0.03), in addition to lower values for body mass index (25.4± 0.6 vs 27.6 ± 0.7 kg/m², P<0.02), of biceps skin fold (18.6 ± 1.1 vs 27.5 ± 1.3 mm, P<0.0001), of triceps skin fold (28.7 ± 1.2 vs 37.3 ± 1.7 mm, P<0.002), and of total cholesterol (205 ± 5 vs 223 ± 6 mg/dL, P< 0.03) and triglycerides (119 ± 9 vs 177 ± 18 mg/dL, P<0.005). Both populations did not differ in regard to HDL-C (46 ± 1 vs 46 ± 1 mg/dL), LDL-C (135 ± 4 vs 144 ± 5 mg/dL) and blood pressure (SBP 124 ± 3 vs 128 ± 3 mmHg; DBP 80 ± 2 vs 82 ± 2 mmHg). CONCLUSION: The riverside and urban populations of Amazonia had similar cardiovascular risks. However, the marked difference in the variables studied suggests that different strategies of prevention should be applied.