The distribution of COPD in UK general practice using the new GOLD classification

The new Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2011 document recommends a combined assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) based on current symptoms and future risk.

A large database of primary-care COPD patients across the UK was used to determine COPD distribution and characteristics according to the new GOLD classification. 80 general practices provided patients with a Read code diagnosis of COPD. Electronic and hand searches of patient medical records were undertaken, optimising data capture.

Data for 9219 COPD patients were collected. For the 6283 patients with both forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and modified Medical Research Council scores (mean¡SD age 69.2¡10.6 years, body mass index 27.3¡6.2 kg?m-2), GOLD 2011 group distributions were: A (low risk and fewer symptoms) 36.1%, B (low risk and more symptoms) 19.1%, C (high risk and fewer symptoms) 19.6% and D (high risk and more symptoms) 25.3%. This is in contrast with GOLD 2007 stage classification: I (mild) 17.1%, II (moderate) 52.2%, III (severe) 25.5% and IV (very severe) 5.2%. 20% of patients with FEV1 o50% predicted had more than two exacerbations in the previous 12 months. 70% of patients with FEV1 ,50% pred had fewer than two exacerbations in the previous 12 months.

This database, representative of UK primary-care COPD patients, identified greater proportions of patients in the mildest and most severe categories upon comparing 2011 versus 2007 GOLD classifications. Discordance between airflow limitation severity and exacerbation risk was observed.

Spatial distribution of plastic pollutants in a transit from Puget Sound to outside Nootka Sound Canada

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Modified Particle Swarm Optimization Applied to Integrated Demand Response and DG Resources Scheduling

The elastic behavior of the demand consumption jointly used with other available resources such as distributed generation (DG) can play a crucial role for the success of smart grids. The intensive use of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and the technical and contractual constraints result in large-scale non linear optimization problems that require computational intelligence methods to be solved. This paper proposes a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based methodology to support the minimization of the operation costs of a virtual power player that manages the resources in a distribution network and the network itself. Resources include the DER available in the considered time period and the energy that can be bought from external energy suppliers. Network constraints are considered. The proposed approach uses Gaussian mutation of the strategic parameters and contextual self-parameterization of the maximum and minimum particle velocities. The case study considers a real 937 bus distribution network, with 20310 consumers and 548 distributed generators. The obtained solutions are compared with a deterministic approach and with PSO without mutation and Evolutionary PSO, both using self-parameterization.

Targeted Public Distribution System in Food Grains:Extent of Utlization by the Tribal Population in Kerala

In India, Food Security meant supply of food grains and the medium was Public Distribution System. Public Distribution System (PDS) is a rationing mechanism that entitles households to specified quantities of selected commodities at subsidized prices. The Objectives of PDS are maintaining Price Stability, rationing during times of scarcity, welfare of the poor, and keeping a check on private trade. Kerala has registered remarkable improvement in poverty reduction in general over the years among all social sections, including scheduled caste and scheduled tribe population. As part of the structural adjustment intended to reduce public expenditure, PDS has been modified as Revamped PDS (RPDS) during 1992 and later on as Targeted PDS (TPDS) in 1997, intended to target households on the basis of income criterion, classifying people as Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line (APL). TPDS provides 25Kg. of food gra.ins through the Fair Price Shops per month @ Rs.3/- per Kg. of rice/ wheat to the BPL category and @Rs.8.90 and Rs.6.7O for rice and wheat respectively to the APL category of people. Since TPDS is intended to target the poor people, the subsidy spent by the government for the scheme should be beneficial to the poor people and naturally they should utilize the benefits by purchasing the food grains allotted under the scheme. Several studies have shown that there is underutilization of the allotments under TPDS. Therefore, the extent of utilization of TPDS in food grains, how and why remains as a major hurdle, in improving the structure and system of PDS. Livelihood of the tribal population being under threat due to increasing degradation of the resources, the targeting system ought to be effective among the tribal population. Therefore, performance of the TPDS in food grains, in terms of the utilization by the tribal population in Kerala, impact thereof and the factors, if any, affecting proper utilization were considered as the research problem in this study. The study concentrated on the pattern of consumption of food grains by the tribal people, whether their hunger needs are met by distribution of food grains through the TPDS, extent to which TPDS in food grains reduce their share of expenditure on food in the total household expenditure, and the factors affecting the utilization of the TPDS in food grains by the tribal population. Going through the literature, it has been noted that only few studies concentrated on the utilization of TPDS in food grains among the tribal population in Kerala.The Research Design used in this study is descriptive in nature, but exploratory in some aspects. Idukki, Palakkad and Wayanad have more than 60% of the population of the tribals in the state. Within the three districts mentioned above, 14 villages with scheduled tribe concentration were selected for the study. 95 tribal colonies were selected from among the various tribal settlements. Collection of primary data was made from 1231 households with in the above tribal colonies. Analysis of data on the socio-economic factors of the tribal people, pattern of food consumption, extent of reduction in the share of expenditure on food among the household expenditure of the tribal people and the impact of TPDS on the tribal families etc. and testing of hypotheses to find out the relation/association of each of the six variables, using the data on BPL and APL categories of households separately have resulted in findings such as six percent of the tribal families do not have Ration Cards, average per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people utilizing TPDS meets 62% of their minimum requirement, whereas the per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people is higher than the national average per capita consumption, 63% deficiency in food grains may be felt by tribal people in general, if TPDS is withdrawn, and the deficit for BPL tribal people may be 82%, TPDS facilitates a reduction of 9.71% in the food expenditure among the total household expenditure of the tribal people in general, share of food to non-food among BPL category of tribals is 55:45 and 40:60 among the APL, Variables, viz. household income, number of members in the family and distance of FPS from tribal settlements etc. have influence on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the Fair Price Shops, and there is influence of household income and distance of FPS from tribal settlements on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the open market. Rationing with differential pricing on phased allotments, rectification of errors in targeting, anomalies in norms and procedures for classifying tribal people as BPL/APL, exclusive Income Generation for tribal population, paddy cultivation in the landholdings possessed by the tribal people, special drive for allotment of Ration Cards to the tribal people, especially those belonging to the BPL category, Mobile Fair Price Shops in tribal settlements, ensure quality of the food grains distributed through the TPDS, distribution of wheat flour in packed condition instead of wheat through the Fair Price Shops are recommended to address the shortcomings and weaknesses of the TPDS vis-avis the tribal population in Kerala.

Catalysis by Modified Pillared Clays and Porous Clay Heterostructures

In this venture three distinct class of catalysts such as, pillared clays and transition metal loaded pillared clays , porous clay heterostructures and their transition metal loaded analogues and DTP supported on porous clay heterostructures etc. were prepared and characterized by various physico chemical methods. The catalytic activities of prepared catalysts were comparatively evaluated for the industrially important alkylation, acetalization and oxidation reactions.The general conclusions drawn from the present investigation are  Zirconium, iron - aluminium pillared clays were synthesized by ion exchange method and zirconium-silicon porous heterostructures were Summary and conclusions 259 prepared by intergallery template method. Transition metals were loaded in PILCs and PCHs by wet impregnation method.  Textural and acidic properties of the clays were modified by pillaring and post pillaring modifications.  The shift in 2θ value to lower range and increase in d (001) spacing indicate the success of pillaring process.  Surface area, pore volume, average pore size etc. increased dramatically as a result of pillaring process.  Porous clay heterostructures have higher surface area, pore volume, average pore diameter and narrow pore size distribution than that of pillared clays.  The IR spectrum of PILCs and PCHs are in accordance with literature without much variation compared to parent montmorillonite which indicate that basic clay structure is retained even after modification.  The silicon NMR of PCHs materials have intense peaks corresponding to Q4 environment which indicate that mesoporous silica is incorporated between clay layers.  Thermo gravimetric analysis showed that thermal stability is improved after the pillaring process. PCH materials have higher thermal stability than PILCs.  In metal loaded pillared clays, up to 5% metal species were uniformly dispersed (with the exception of Ni) as evident from XRD and TPR analysis. Chapter 9 260  Impregnation of transition metals in PILCs and PCHs enhanced acidity of catalysts as evident from TPD of ammonia and cumene cracking reactions.  For porous clay heterostructures the acidic sites have major contribution from weak and medium acid sites which can be related to the Bronsted sites as evident from TPD of ammonia.  Pillared clays got more Lewis acidity than PCHs as inferred from α- methyl styrene selectivity in cumene cracking reaction.  SEM images show that layer structure is preserved even after modification. Worm hole like morphology is observed in TEM image of PCHs materials  In ZrSiPCHS, Zr exists as Zr 4+ and is incorporated to silica pillars in the intergallary of clay layers as evident from XPS analysis.  In copper loaded zirconium pillared clays, copper exists as isolated species with +2 oxidation state at lower loading. At higher loading, Cu exists as clusters as evident from reduction peak at higher temperatures in TPR.  In vanadium incorporated PILCs and PCHs, vanadium exist as isolated V5+ in tetrahedral coordination which is confirmed from TPR and UVVis DRS analysis.  In cobalt loaded PCHs, cobalt exists as CoO with 2+ oxidation state as confirmed from XPS.  Cerium incorporated iron aluminium pillared clay was found to be the best catalyst for the hydroxylation of phenol in aqueous media due to the additional surface area provided by ceria mesopores and its redox properties. Summary and conclusions 261  Cobalt loaded zirconium porous clay heterostructures were found to be promising catalyst for the tertiary butylation of phenol due to higher surface area and acidic properties.  Copper loaded pillared clays were found to be good catalyst for the direct hydroxylation of benzene to phenol.  Vanadium loaded PCHs catalysts were found to be efficient catalysts for oxidation of benzyl alcohol.  DTP was firmly fixed on the mesoporous channels of PCHs by Direct method and functionalization method.  DTP supported PCHs catalyst were found to be good catalyst for acetalization of cyclohexanone with more than 90% conversion.

Distribution of diatom communities in agricultural and mining watersheds of Southwest Spain

Els sistemes aquàtics continental representen un dels ecosistemes més amenaçats a nivell mundial, com a conseqüència de l'ús intensiu quel'home en fa. La conca del Guadiana no està lliure d'aquestes pressions antròpiques. Les grans infraestructures hidràuliques i l'escorrentia provinent de l'agricultura són només exemples dels greus problemes que pateix la conca. Aquests problemes es fan especialment palesos en la zona alta de la conca, on l'escassetat d'aigua no fa més que agreujar el problema.Tot això ha generat la necessitat urgent d'avaluar l'estat de conservació d'aquests ecosistemes aquàtics continentals, poder determinar la mesura i la magnitud de les pertorbacions que els estan afectant i així proposar mesures de gestió destinades a restaurar-ne la integritat ecològica. El principal objectiu que presenta aquest és determinar els patrons de distribució de les comunitats de algals (amb una menció especial en el grup de les diatomees) i de les seves causes en la conca del Guadiana i associades, amb la finalitat d'establir i proposar eines que permetin avaluar l'estat de conservació de les masses d'aigua d'aquestes conques.

Problems with determining the particle size distribution of chalk soil and some of their implications

Particle size distribution (psd) is one of the most important features of the soil because it affects many of its other properties, and it determines how soil should be managed. To understand the properties of chalk soil, psd analyses should be based on the original material (including carbonates), and not just the acid-resistant fraction. Laser-based methods rather than traditional sedimentation methods are being used increasingly to determine particle size to reduce the cost of analysis. We give an overview of both approaches and the problems associated with them for analyzing the psd of chalk soil. In particular, we show that it is not appropriate to use the widely adopted 8 pm boundary between the clay and silt size fractions for samples determined by laser to estimate proportions of these size fractions that are equivalent to those based on sedimentation. We present data from field and national-scale surveys of soil derived from chalk in England. Results from both types of survey showed that laser methods tend to over-estimate the clay-size fraction compared to sedimentation for the 8 mu m clay/silt boundary, and we suggest reasons for this. For soil derived from chalk, either the sedimentation methods need to be modified or it would be more appropriate to use a 4 pm threshold as an interim solution for laser methods. Correlations between the proportions of sand- and clay-sized fractions, and other properties such as organic matter and volumetric water content, were the opposite of what one would expect for soil dominated by silicate minerals. For water content, this appeared to be due to the predominance of porous, chalk fragments in the sand-sized fraction rather than quartz grains, and the abundance of fine (<2 mu m) calcite crystals rather than phyllosilicates in the clay-sized fraction. This was confirmed by scanning electron microscope (SEM) analyses. "Of all the rocks with which 1 am acquainted, there is none whose formation seems to tax the ingenuity of theorists so severely, as the chalk, in whatever respect we may think fit to consider it". Thomas Allan, FRS Edinburgh 1823, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. (C) 2009 Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in a coupled GCM with a modified atmospheric convection scheme

The too diverse representation of ENSO in a coupled GCM limits one’s ability to describe future change of its properties. Several studies pointed to the key role of atmosphere feedbacks in contributing to this diversity. These feedbacks are analyzed here in two simulations of a coupled GCM that differ only by the parameterization of deep atmospheric convection and the associated clouds. Using the Kerry–Emanuel (KE) scheme in the L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL CM4; KE simulation), ENSO has about the right amplitude, whereas it is almost suppressed when using the Tiedke (TI) scheme. Quantifying both the dynamical Bjerknes feedback and the heat flux feedback in KE, TI, and the corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) atmosphere-only simulations, it is shown that the suppression of ENSO in TI is due to a doubling of the damping via heat flux feedback. Because the Bjerknes positive feedback is weak in both simulations, the KE simulation exhibits the right ENSO amplitude owing to an error compensation between a too weak heat flux feedback and a too weak Bjerknes feedback. In TI, the heat flux feedback strength is closer to estimates from observations and reanalysis, leading to ENSO suppression. The shortwave heat flux and, to a lesser extent, the latent heat flux feedbacks are the dominant contributors to the change between TI and KE. The shortwave heat flux feedback differences are traced back to a modified distribution of the large-scale regimes of deep convection (negative feedback) and subsidence (positive feedback) in the east Pacific. These are further associated with the model systematic errors. It is argued that a systematic and detailed evaluation of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO is a necessary step to fully understand its simulation in coupled GCMs.

Detection of frailty in Weibull lifetime data using Outlier tests

Heterogeneity in lifetime data may be modelled by multiplying an individual's hazard by an unobserved frailty. We test for the presence of frailty of this kind in univariate and bivariate data with Weibull distributed lifetimes, using statistics based on the ordered Cox-Snell residuals from the null model of no frailty. The form of the statistics is suggested by outlier testing in the gamma distribution. We find through simulation that the sum of the k largest or k smallest order statistics, for suitably chosen k , provides a powerful test when the frailty distribution is assumed to be gamma or positive stable, respectively. We provide recommended values of k for sample sizes up to 100 and simple formulae for estimated critical values for tests at the 5% level.

Partial aerial oxidation of nonpolar alcohols over Teflon-modified noble metal catalysts in supercritical carbon dioxide

We have reported earlier that modification of commercial graphite Pt-supported catalysts with Teflon fluorinated polymeric coating of a very strong hydrophobic nature can significantly improve catalytic activity for aerial oxidation of water-insoluble alcohols such as anthracene methanol in supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO(2)). Thus, this paper presents some further characterization of these new catalyst materials and the working fluid phase during the catalysis. Using the same Teflon-modified metal catalysts, this paper addresses the oxidation of another water-insoluble alcohol molecule, m-hydrobenzoin in scCO(2). It is found that conversion and product distribution of this diol oxidation critically depend on the temperature and pressure of the scCO(2) used, which suggest the remarkable solvent properties of the scCO(2) under these unconventional oxidation conditions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Geographic distributions of pathogens are the outcome of dynamic processes involving host availability, susceptibility and abundance, suitability of climate conditions, and historical contingency including evolutionary change. Distributions have changed fast and are changing fast in response to many factors, including climatic change. The response time of arable agriculture is intrinsically fast, but perennial crops and especially forests are unlikely to adapt easily. Predictions of many of the variables needed to predict changes in pathogen range are still rather uncertain, and their effects will be profoundly modified by changes elsewhere in the agricultural system, including both economic changes affecting growing systems and hosts and evolutionary changes in pathogens and hosts. Tools to predict changes based on environmental correlations depend on good primary data, which is often absent, and need to be checked against the historical record, which remains very poor for almost all pathogens. We argue that at present the uncertainty in predictions of change is so great that the important adaptive response is to monitor changes and to retain the capacity to innovate, both by access to economic capital with reasonably long-term rates of return and by retaining wide scientific expertise, including currently less fashionable specialisms.

Constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy dissipation in forced two-dimensional turbulence

We study two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in a doubly periodic domain driven by a monoscale-like forcing and damped by various dissipation mechanisms of the form νμ(−Δ)μ. By “monoscale-like” we mean that the forcing is applied over a finite range of wavenumbers kmin≤k≤kmax, and that the ratio of enstrophy injection η≥0 to energy injection ε≥0 is bounded by kmin2ε≤η≤kmax2ε. Such a forcing is frequently considered in theoretical and numerical studies of 2D turbulence. It is shown that for μ≥0 the asymptotic behaviour satisfies ∥u∥12≤kmax2∥u∥2, where ∥u∥2 and ∥u∥12 are the energy and enstrophy, respectively. If the condition of monoscale-like forcing holds only in a time-mean sense, then the inequality holds in the time mean. It is also shown that for Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1), the time-mean enstrophy dissipation rate is bounded from above by 2ν1kmax2. These results place strong constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy and of their dissipation, and thereby on the existence of energy and enstrophy cascades, in such systems. In particular, the classical dual cascade picture is shown to be invalid for forced 2D Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1) when it is forced in this manner. Inclusion of Ekman drag (μ=0) along with molecular viscosity permits a dual cascade, but is incompatible with the log-modified −3 power law for the energy spectrum in the enstrophy-cascading inertial range. In order to achieve the latter, it is necessary to invoke an inverse viscosity (μ<0). These constraints on permissible power laws apply for any spectrally localized forcing, not just for monoscale-like forcing.

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.

Metallicity effects on the modified wind momentum of CSPN

Recent investigations on the central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) indicate that the masses based on model atmospheres can be much larger than the masses derived from theoretical mass-luminosity relations. Also, the dispersion in the relation between the modified wind momentum and the luminosity depends on the mass spread of the CSPN, and is larger than observed in massive hot stars. Since the wind characteristics probably depend on the metallicity, we analyze the effects on the modified wind momentum by considering the dispersion in this quantity caused by the stellar metallicity. Our CSPN masses are based on a relation between the core mass and the nebular abundances. We conclude that these masses agree with the known mass distribution both for CSPN and white dwarfs, and that the spread in the modified wind momentum can be explained by the observed metallicity variations.