998 resultados para MCMC METHOD
Resumo:
The World Health Organization recommends that data on mortality in its member countries are collected utilising the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death published in the instruction volume of the ICD-10. However, investment in health information processes necessary to promote the use of this certificate and improve mortality information is lacking in many countries. An appeal for support to make improvements has been launched through the Health Metrics Network’s MOVE-IT strategy (Monitoring of Vital Events – Information Technology) [World Health Organization, 2011]. Despite this international spotlight on the need for capture of mortality data and in the use of the ICD-10 to code the data reported on such certificates, there is little cohesion in the way that certifiers of deaths receive instruction in how to complete the death certificate, which is the main source document for mortality statistics. Complete and accurate documentation of the immediate, underlying and contributory causes of death of the decedent on the death certificate is a requirement to produce standardised statistical information and to the ability to produce cause-specific mortality statistics that can be compared between populations and across time. This paper reports on a research project conducted to determine the efficacy and accessibility of the certification module of the WHO’s newly-developed web based training tool for coders and certifiers of deaths. Involving a population of medical students from the Fiji School of Medicine and a pre and post research design, the study entailed completion of death certificates based on vignettes before and after access to the training tool. The ability of the participants to complete the death certificates and analysis of the completeness and specificity of the ICD-10 coding of the reported causes of death were used to measure the effect of the students’ learning from the training tool. The quality of death certificate completion was assessed using a Quality Index before and after the participants accessed the training tool. In addition, the views of the participants about accessibility and use of the training tool were elicited using a supplementary questionnaire. The results of the study demonstrated improvement in the ability of the participants to complete death certificates completely and accurately according to best practice. The training tool was viewed very positively and its implementation in the curriculum for medical students was encouraged. Participants also recommended that interactive discussions to examine the certification exercises would be an advantage.
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In this paper a new graph-theory and improved genetic algorithm based practical method is employed to solve the optimal sectionalizer switch placement problem. The proposed method determines the best locations of sectionalizer switching devices in distribution networks considering the effects of presence of distributed generation (DG) in fitness functions and other optimization constraints, providing the maximum number of costumers to be supplied by distributed generation sources in islanded distribution systems after possible faults. The proposed method is simulated and tested on several distribution test systems in both cases of with DG and non DG situations. The results of the simulations validate the proposed method for switch placement of the distribution network in the presence of distributed generation.
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Recently, because of the new developments in sustainable engineering and renewable energy, which are usually governed by a series of fractional partial differential equations (FPDEs), the numerical modelling and simulation for fractional calculus are attracting more and more attention from researchers. The current dominant numerical method for modeling FPDE is Finite Difference Method (FDM), which is based on a pre-defined grid leading to inherited issues or shortcomings including difficulty in simulation of problems with the complex problem domain and in using irregularly distributed nodes. Because of its distinguished advantages, the meshless method has good potential in simulation of FPDEs. This paper aims to develop an implicit meshless collocation technique for FPDE. The discrete system of FPDEs is obtained by using the meshless shape functions and the meshless collocation formulation. The stability and convergence of this meshless approach are investigated theoretically and numerically. The numerical examples with regular and irregular nodal distributions are used to validate and investigate accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless formulation. It is concluded that the present meshless formulation is very effective for the modeling and simulation of fractional partial differential equations.
Resumo:
This paper formulates a node-based smoothed conforming point interpolation method (NS-CPIM) for solid mechanics. In the proposed NS-CPIM, the higher order conforming PIM shape functions (CPIM) have been constructed to produce a continuous and piecewise quadratic displacement field over the whole problem domain, whereby the smoothed strain field was obtained through smoothing operation over each smoothing domain associated with domain nodes. The smoothed Galerkin weak form was then developed to create the discretized system equations. Numerical studies have demonstrated the following good properties: NS-CPIM (1) can pass both standard and quadratic patch test; (2) provides an upper bound of strain energy; (3) avoid the volumetric locking; (4) provides the higher accuracy than those in the node-based smoothed schemes of the original PIMs.
Resumo:
Thin solid films were extensively used in the making of solar cells, cutting tools, magnetic recording devices, etc. As a result, the accurate measurement of mechanical properties of the thin films, such as hardness and elastic modulus, was required. The thickness of thin films normally varies from tens of nanometers to several micrometers. It is thus challenging to measure their mechanical properties. In this study, a nanoscratch method was proposed for hardness measurement. A three-dimensional finite element method (3-D FEM) model was developed to validate the nanoscratch method and to understand the substrate effect during nanoscratch. Nanoindentation was also used for comparison. The nanoscratch method was demonstrated to be valuable for measuring hardness of thin solid films.
Resumo:
In this article, an enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) is developed for computational mechanics. The conventional radial basis function (RBF) interpolation is novelly augmented by the suitable basis functions to reflect the natural properties of deformation. The performance of the enriched meshless RBF shape functions is first investigated using the surface fitting. The surface fitting results have proven that, compared with the conventional RBF, the enriched RBF interpolation has a much better accuracy to fit a complex surface than the conventional RBF interpolation. It has proven that the enriched RBF shape function will not only possess all advantages of the conventional RBF interpolation, but also can accurately reflect the deformation properties of problems. The system of equations for two-dimensional solids is then derived based on the enriched RBF shape function and both of the meshless strong-form and weak-form. A numerical example of a bar is presented to study the effectiveness and efficiency of e-RPIM. As an important application, the newly developed e-RPIM, which is augmented by selected trigonometric basis functions, is applied to crack problems. It has been demonstrated that the present e-RPIM is very accurate and stable for fracture mechanics problems.
Resumo:
The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.
Resumo:
A new relationship type of social networks - online dating - are gaining popularity. With a large member base, users of a dating network are overloaded with choices about their ideal partners. Recommendation methods can be utilized to overcome this problem. However, traditional recommendation methods do not work effectively for online dating networks where the dataset is sparse and large, and a two-way matching is required. This paper applies social networking concepts to solve the problem of developing a recommendation method for online dating networks. We propose a method by using clustering, SimRank and adapted SimRank algorithms to recommend matching candidates. Empirical results show that the proposed method can achieve nearly double the performance of the traditional collaborative filtering and common neighbor methods of recommendation.
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Recent surveys of information technology management professionals show that understanding business domains in terms of business productivity and cost reduction potential, knowledge of different vertical industry segments and their information requirements, understanding of business processes and client-facing skills are more critical for Information Systems personnel than ever before. In an attempt to restrucuture the information systems curriculum accordingly, our view it that information systems students need to develop an appreciation for organizational work systems in order to understand the operation and significance of information systems within such work systems.
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For the analysis of material nonlinearity, an effective shear modulus approach based on the strain control method is proposed in this paper by using point collocation method. Hencky’s total deformation theory is used to evaluate the effective shear modulus, Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which are treated as spatial field variables. These effective properties are obtained by the strain controlled projection method in an iterative manner. To evaluate the second order derivatives of shape function at the field point, the radial basis function (RBF) in the local support domain is used. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method and comparisons have been made with analytical solutions and the finite element method (ABAQUS).
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We present an iterative hierarchical algorithm for multi-view stereo. The algorithm attempts to utilise as much contextual information as is available to compute highly accurate and robust depth maps. There are three novel aspects to the approach: 1) firstly we incrementally improve the depth fidelity as the algorithm progresses through the image pyramid; 2) secondly we show how to incorporate visual hull information (when available) to constrain depth searches; and 3) we show how to simultaneously enforce the consistency of the depth-map by continual comparison with neighbouring depth-maps. We show that this approach produces highly accurate depth-maps and, since it is essentially a local method, is both extremely fast and simple to implement.
Resumo:
This paper presents a strategy for delayed research method selection in a qualitative interpretivist research. An exemplary case details how explorative interviews were designed and conducted in accordance with a paradigm prior to deciding whether to adopt grounded theory or phenomenology for data analysis. The focus here is to determine the most appropriate research strategy in this case the methodological framing to conduct research and represent findings, both of which are detailed. Research addressing current management issues requires both a flexible framework and the capability to consider the research problem from various angles, to derive tangible results for academia with immediate application to business demands. Researchers, and in particular novices, often struggle to decide on an appropriate research method suitable to address their research problem. This often applies to interpretative qualitative research where it is not always immediately clear which is the most appropriate method to use, as the research objectives shift and crystallize over time. This paper uses an exemplary case to reveal how the strategy for delayed research method selection contributes to deciding whether to adopt grounded theory or phenomenology in the initial phase of a PhD research project. In this case, semi-structured interviews were used for data generation framed in an interpretivist approach, situated in a business context. Research questions for this study were thoroughly defined and carefully framed in accordance with the research paradigm‟s principles, while at the same time ensuring that the requirements of both potential research methods were met. The grounded theory and phenomenology methods were compared and contrasted to determine their suitability and whether they meet the research objectives based on a pilot study. The strategy proposed in this paper is an alternative to the more „traditional‟ approach, which initially selects the methodological formulation, followed by data generation. In conclusion, the suggested strategy for delayed research method selection intends to help researchers identify and apply the most appropriate method to their research. This strategy is based on explorations of data generation and analysis in order to derive faithful results from the data generated.
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The accuracy of marker placement on palpable surface anatomical landmarks is an important consideration in biomechanics. Although marker placement reliability has been studied in some depth, it remains unclear whether or not the markers are accurately positioned over the intended landmark in order to define the static position and orientation of the segment. A novel method using commonly available X-ray imaging was developed to identify the accuracy of markers placed on the shoe surface by palpating landmarks through the shoe. An anterior–posterior and lateral–medial X-ray was taken on 24 participants with a newly developed marker set applied to both the skin and shoe. The vector magnitude of both skin- and shoe-mounted markers from the anatomical landmark was calculated, as well as the mean marker offset between skin- and shoe-mounted markers. The accuracy of placing markers on the shoe relative to the skin-mounted markers, accounting for shoe thickness, was less than 5mm for all markers studied. Further, when using the developed guidelines provided in this study, the method was deemed reliable (Intra-rater ICCs¼0.50–0.92). In conclusion, the method proposed here can reliably assess marker placement accuracy on the shoe surface relative to chosen anatomical landmarks beneath the skin.