Modelos Mixtos-Aditivos Generalizados para el Estudio de Fenómenos Biológicos y Sociales Descriptos por Datos Agregados y/o Longitudinales. Generalized Mixed Additive Models for the Study of Biological and Social Phenomenons from Longitudinal and/or Aggregated Data.

Este proyecto propone extender y generalizar los procesos de estimación e inferencia de modelos aditivos generalizados multivariados para variables aleatorias no gaussianas, que describen comportamientos de fenómenos biológicos y sociales y cuyas representaciones originan series longitudinales y datos agregados (clusters). Se genera teniendo como objeto para las aplicaciones inmediatas, el desarrollo de metodología de modelación para la comprensión de procesos biológicos, ambientales y sociales de las áreas de Salud y las Ciencias Sociales, la condicionan la presencia de fenómenos específicos, como el de las enfermedades.Es así que el plan que se propone intenta estrechar la relación entre la Matemática Aplicada, desde un enfoque bajo incertidumbre y las Ciencias Biológicas y Sociales, en general, generando nuevas herramientas para poder analizar y explicar muchos problemas sobre los cuales tienen cada vez mas información experimental y/o observacional.Se propone, en forma secuencial, comenzando por variables aleatorias discretas (Yi, con función de varianza menor que una potencia par del valor esperado E(Y)) generar una clase unificada de modelos aditivos (paramétricos y no paramétricos) generalizados, la cual contenga como casos particulares a los modelos lineales generalizados, no lineales generalizados, los aditivos generalizados, los de media marginales generalizados (enfoques GEE1 -Liang y Zeger, 1986- y GEE2 -Zhao y Prentice, 1990; Zeger y Qaqish, 1992; Yan y Fine, 2004), iniciando una conexión con los modelos lineales mixtos generalizados para variables latentes (GLLAMM, Skrondal y Rabe-Hesketh, 2004), partiendo de estructuras de datos correlacionados. Esto permitirá definir distribuciones condicionales de las respuestas, dadas las covariables y las variables latentes y estimar ecuaciones estructurales para las VL, incluyendo regresiones de VL sobre las covariables y regresiones de VL sobre otras VL y modelos específicos para considerar jerarquías de variación ya reconocidas. Cómo definir modelos que consideren estructuras espaciales o temporales, de manera tal que permitan la presencia de factores jerárquicos, fijos o aleatorios, medidos con error como es el caso de las situaciones que se presentan en las Ciencias Sociales y en Epidemiología, es un desafío a nivel estadístico. Se proyecta esa forma secuencial para la construcción de metodología tanto de estimación como de inferencia, comenzando con variables aleatorias Poisson y Bernoulli, incluyendo los existentes MLG, hasta los actuales modelos generalizados jerárquicos, conextando con los GLLAMM, partiendo de estructuras de datos correlacionados. Esta familia de modelos se generará para estructuras de variables/vectores, covariables y componentes aleatorios jerárquicos que describan fenómenos de las Ciencias Sociales y la Epidemiología.

Avaliação da função sistólica longitudinal na insuficiência cardíaca com fração de ejeção normal

FUNDAMENTO: A insuficiência cardíaca com fração de ejeção normal (ICFEN) é hoje o modelo mais prevalente de IC em diferentes estudos epidemiológicos, e anormalidades na função sistólica de grau leve (subclínica) têm sido observadas nesses pacientes quando a contratilidade do ventrículo esquerdo (VE) é avaliada no eixo longitudinal (S') pelo ecocardiograma Doppler tecidual (EDT), mesmo na presença de fração de ejeção do VE normal. OBJETIVO: Avaliar se pacientes com diagnóstico de ICFEN, de acordo com os novos critérios da Sociedade Europeia de Cardiologia, apresentam alterações da função sistólica constatada pela medida de S' quando comparados com os pacientes em que a ICFEN não foi confirmada. MÉTODOS: Cento e dezoito pacientes com sinais ou sintomas de IC foram submetidos a dosagem de BNP e ao EDT com medidas da velocidade do eixo longitudinal na sístole (S') e diástole (E') e medidas do fluxo transmitral durante a diástole (E,A). RESULTADOS: ICFEN foi confirmada em 38 pacientes (32,2%). O pico da velocidade miocárdica durante a sístole (S') e a velocidade miocárdica no inicio da diástole (E') estavam significativamente diminuídas em pacientes com ICFEN em relação aos pacientes em que a ICFEN foi excluída (7,8 ± 2,3 cm/s vs 9,4 ± 2,5 cm/s p=0,002 - 7,7 ± 2,6 cm/s vs 9,4 ± 2,5 cm/s-p=0,001). Valores médios de BNP foram mais elevados em pacientes com ICFEN (140,5 ± 122,4 pg/ml vs 23,1 ± 25,0 pg/ml p< 0,0001). S' se correlacionou de modo significativo com E' (r=0,457 - p< 0,0001) mostrando uma forte ligação entre contração e relaxamento ventricular. CONCLUSÃO: Nossos achados mostram redução da função sistólica, quando avaliada pelo S', na ICFEN, existindo correlação linear entre o grau de disfunção sistólica (S') e diastólica (E/E'e E').

Transitions to fatherhood in East Germany in the 1990s : psychological determinants of childbearing and the meaning of entering into parenthood for young adults from Rostock ; an event-history and qualitative composite investigation within the Rostock longitudinal survey

East Germany, men, fertility, first births, event history analysis, problem-centered interviews, methodical integration, triangulation, social psychology, gender

The movements and habits of climbing plants.

2d ed.rev.

Comportamento dos cromossômios na meiose de Euryophthalmus rufipennis Laporte (Hemiptera Pyrrhocoridae)

In this paper an account is given of the principal facts observer in the meiosis of Euryophthalmus rufipennis Laporte which afford some evidence in favour of the view held by the present writer in earlier publications regarding the existence of two terminal kinetochores in Hem ip ter an chromosomes as well as the transverse division of the chromosomes. Spermatogonial mitosis - From the beginning of prophase until metaphase nothing worthy of special reference was observed. At anaphase, on the contrary, the behavior of the chromosomes deserves our best attention. Indeed, the chromoso- mes, as soon as they begin to move, they show both ends pronouncedly turned toward the poles to which they are connected by chromosomal fibres. So a premature and remarkable bending of the chromosomes not yet found in any other species of Hemiptera and even of Homoptera points strongly to terminally localized kinetochores. The explanation proposed by HUGHES-SCHRADER and RIS for Nautococcus and by RIS for Tamalia, whose chromosomes first become bent late in anaphase do not apply to chromosomes which initiate anaphase movement already turned toward the corresponding pole. In the other hand, the variety of positions assumed by the anaphase chromosomes of Euryophthalmus with regard to one another speaks conclusively against the idea of diffuse spindle attachments. First meiotic division - Corresponding to the beginning of the story of the primary spermatocytes cells are found with the nucleus entirelly filled with leptonema threads. Nuclei with thin and thick threads have been considered as being in the zygotente phase. At the pachytene stage the bivalents are formed by two parallel strands clearly separated by a narrow space. The preceding phases differ in nothing from the corresponding orthodox ones, pairing being undoubtedly of the parasynaptic type. Formation of tetrads - When the nuclei coming from the diffuse stage can be again understood the chromosomes reappear as thick threads formed by two filaments intimately united except for a short median segment. Becoming progressively shorter and thicker the bivalents sometimes unite their extremities forming ring-shaped figures. Generally, however, this does not happen and the bivalents give origin to more or less condensed characteristic Hemipteran tetrads, bent at the weak median region. The lateral duplicity of the tetrads is evident. At metaphase the tetrads are still bent and are connected with both poles by their ends. The ring-shaped diakinesis tetrads open themselves out before metaphase, showing in this way that were not chiasmata that held their ends together. Anaphase proceeds as expected. If we consider the median region of the tetrads as being terminalized chiasmata, then the chromosomes are provided with a single terminal kinetochore. But this it not the case. A critical analysis of the story of the bivalents before and after the diffuse stage points to the conclusion that they are continuous throughout their whole length. Thence the chromosomes are considered as having a kinetochore at each end. Orientation - There are some evidences that Hemipteran chromosomes are connected by chiasmata. If this is true, the orientation of the tetrads may be understood in the following manner: Chiasmata being hindered to scape by the terminal kinetochores accumulate at the ends of the tetrads, where condensation begins. Repulsion at the centric ends being prevented by chiasmata the tetrads orient themselves as if they were provided with a single kinetochore at each extremity, taking a position parallelly to the spindle axis. Anaphase separation - Anaphase separation is consequently due to a transverse division of the chromosomes. Telophase and secund meiotic division - At telophase the kinetochore repeli one another following the moving apart of the centosomes, the chiasmata slip toward the acentric extremities and the chromosomes rotate in order to arrange themselves parallelly to the axis of the new spindle. Separation is therefore throughout the pairing plane. Origin of the dicentricity of the chromosomes - Dicentricity of the chromosomes is ascribed to the division of the kinetochore of the chromosomes reaching the poles followed by separation and distension of the chromatids which remain fused at the acentric ends giving thus origin to terminally dicentric iso-chromosomes. Thence, the transverse division of the chromosomes, that is, a division through a plane perpendicular to the plane of pairing, actually corresponds to a longitudinal division realized in the preceding generation. Inactive and active kinetochores - Chromosomes carrying inactive kinetochore is not capable of orientation and active anaphasic movements. The heterochromosome of Diactor bilineatus in the division of the secondary spermatocytes is justly in this case, standing without fibrilar connection with the poles anywhere in the cell, while the autosomes are moving regularly. The heterochromosome of Euryophthalmus, on the contrary, having its kinetochores perfectly active ,is correctly oriented in the plane of the equator together with the autosomes and shows terminal chromosomal connection with both poles. Being attracted with equal strength by two opposite poles it cannot decide to the one way or the other remaining motionless in the equator until some secondary causes (as for instances a slight functional difference between the kinetochores) intervene to break the state of equilibrium. When Yiothing interferes to aide the heterochromosome in choosing its way it distends itself between the autosomal plates forming a fusiform bridge which sometimes finishes by being broken. Ordinarily, however, the bulky part of the heterochromosome passes to one pole. Spindle fibers and kinetic activity of chromosomal fragments - The kinetochore is considered as the unique part of the chromosome capable of being influenced by other kinetochore or by the poles. Under such influence the kinetochore would be stimulated or activited and would elaborate a sort of impulse which would run toward the ends. In this respect the chromosome may be compared to a neüròn, the cell being represented by the kinetochore and the axon by the body of the chromosome. Due to the action of the kinetochore the entire chromosome becomes also activated for performing its kinetic function. Nothing is known at present about the nature of this activation. We can however assume that some active chemical substance like those produced by the neuron and transferred to the effector passes from the kinetochore to the body of the chromosome runing down to the ends. And, like an axon which continues to transmit an impulse after the stimulating agent has suspended its action, so may the chromosome show some residual kinetic activity even after having lost its kinetochore. This is another explanation for the kinetic behavior of acentric chromosomal fragmehs. In the orthodox monocentric chromosomes the kinetic activity is greater at the kinetochore, that is, at the place of origin of the active substance than at any other place. In chromosomes provided with a kinetochore at each end the entire body may become active enough to produce chromosomal fibers. This is probably due to a more or less uniform distribution and concentration of the active substance coming simultaneously from both extremities of the chromosome.

Provas adicionais da dicentricidade dos cromossômios dos Hemípteros

In order to test Piza's conclusions regarding the dicentricity of Hemipteran chromosomes, two species of bugs of the family Coreidae, namely, Anasa sp. and Leptoglossus stigma (Herbst), are studied in the present paper. a) Anasa sp. - The male of this species has 21 chromosomes, that is, 20 pairs of autosomes and a single sex chromosome. The latter divides equationally in the first division of the spermatocytes and passes undivided to one cell in the second division. In this it moves with its longer axis parallelly to the spindle axis and shows fibrillar connections with both poles. Special attention was paid to the behavior of the chromosomes in the anaphase of the spermatogonia. As it was previously stated (Piza 1946 and 1946a) with regard to other species, the chromosomes are here attached to the spindle by both ends and begin to move toward the poles strongly curved to them. No intercalary fibers could be detected although their existente may not be denied by theoretical reasons developed in another paper (Piza 1946). Mitoses in somatic tissues of the embryo were equally studied. Careful examination of anaphase chromosomes in a great number of cells showed that the chromosomes behave exactly as in the spermatogonia, being equally attached to the spindle by the extremities alone and moving with their ends looking to the pole. A weak median constriction sometimes replaced by a slightly clearer space was observed in prometaphase and even in metaphase chromosomes of the spermatogonia as well as the somatic cells, having already been referred to in the case of Diactor bilineatus. (Piza 1945). Hemipteran chromosomes being considered as iso-chromosomes originated by a longitudinal spliting of the monocentric chromosomes resulting from the second division of the spermatocytes, the median aspect just mentioned may be regarded as the point of union of the separated halves. (See origin of dicentricity in Piza 1946). b) Leptoglossus stigma - This species has spermatogonia provided with 20 pairs of autosomes and one sex chromosome whose behavior differs in nothing from what was stated in regard of the preceding species. In the primary spermatocytes nothing meriting special mention was observed. Orientation, connection with the poles and movements of the sex chromosome in the secondary spermatocytes confirm the views already developed.

Efeito da velocidade de operação do arado de discos, de arrasto, na componente longitudinal do esforço tratório, em solo de classe textural areia

O presente trabalho foi realizado com o propósito de estudar o efeito do aumento de velocidade sobre os valores da componente longitudinal do esforço tratório. Foi usado um arado de discos, de arrasto. Para a medição da componente longitudinal do esforço tratório foi utilizado um dispositivo de acoplamento na barra do trator, onde foi inserido um dinamômetro eletromecânico PIAB. Os ensaios foram realizados, em condições de campo, em um solo de classe textural areia. As velocidades de deslocamento foram em número de 4:2,86 km/h, 3,61 km/h, 4,74 km/h e 6,64 km/h. Nas condições em que foram realizados os ensaios, determinou-se a seguinte equação: K = 2,64 v + 62,88, sendo K = força específica média em kgf/dm² e v = velocidade de deslocamento em km/h.

Les Actituds del professorat de l'ESO vers les pràctiques inclusives: un estudi longitudinal

En aquest treball s’exposa l’estudi realitzat en un centre educatiu ordinari d’Educació Secundària Obligatòria. En aquest centre, el curs acadèmic 2002-2003 s’hi implanten dues unitats d’educació especial amb la finalitat d’aconseguir una escolarització amb un caràcter més normalitzat per als alumnes que les integren. Fruit d’aquesta implantació se’ns ofereix l’oportunitat de realitzar un estudi al voltant del funcionament d’aquest procés. Degut a la importància que tenen en els processos d’aquesta índole, entre d’altres motius, decidim decantar-nos per l’estudi de les actituds del professorat vers les pràctiques inclusives. Així doncs en aquest treball s’hi recullen quines són les actituds dels professorat d’aquest IES, en dos moments diferents al llarg del temps, al voltant de diferents aspectes relacionats amb les pràctiques inclusives, l’instrument dissenyat per a recollir aquestes actituds, així com també les pràctiques amb caràcter inclusiu que s’han dut a terme en aquest IES.

Morbidade da doença de Chagas: III. Estudo longitudinal, de seis anos, em Virgem da Lapa, MG, Brasil

Um estudo longitudinal clínico, radiológico e eletrocardiográfico do tipo caso-controle realizado no município de Virgem da Lapa, Minas Gerais, Brasil, com o acompanhamento de 124 chagásicos crônicos durante seis anos, revelou que 62,1% dos pacientes permaneceram com o quadro inicial inalterado, a maioria deles na forma indeterminada, 32,3% evoluíram com progressão da doença e 5,6% tiveram normalização do eletrocardiograma. Os resultados mencionados, quando comparados aos obtidos no grupo controle composto de pares não chagásicos da mesma idade e sexo, demonstraram uma progressão de 27,4% maior entre os pacientes com sorologia positiva, o que representa o excesso de risco ou componente exclusivamente chagásico na evolução da doença. Não houve diferença de progressão da doença em relação ao sexo, porém ela foi mais precoce e sete vezes mais freqüente em relação à cardiopatia do que ao megaesôfago, ambas ocorrendo na maioria das vezes em grau leve ou moderada. Em 192 chagásicos e 188 não chagásicos observados na área, no referido período, houve uma mortalidade 3,6 vezes maior entre os chagásicos, com uma letalidade pela cardiopatia de 8,9%, sem diferença entre os sexos, porém mais precoce no sexo masculino. A morte súbita foi mais freqüente do que a morte por insuficiência cardíaca. O prognóstico foi bom para os pacientes da forma indeterminada e digestiva e reservado para os casos de cardiopatia, principalmente os de graus mais elevados.

Morbidade da doença de Chagas: IV. Estudo longitudinal de dez anos em Pains e Iguatama, Minas Gerais, Brasil

Um estudo evolutivo do tipo caso-controle sobre a morbidade da doença de Chagas foi feito com indivíduos pareados por idade e sexo, utilizando-se duas avaliações, eletrocardiográficas e radiológicas com intervalo de dez anos. No primeiro estudo foram analizados 264 de indivíduos com sorologia positiva e outros tantos com sorologia negativa, e no último, foram obtidoas informações sobre 235 pacientes entre positivos e 216 entre os negativos dos quais foram reconstituídos e reexaminados 110 pares com a mesma metodologia inicial. A incidência da cardiopatia chagásica nos casos da forma inderteminada e o gravamento da forma cardíaca já instalada foi de 38,3 e 24%, respectivamente, no peíodo considerado. A evolução da doença como um todo foi progressiva em 34,5% dos casos, inalterada e, 57,3% e regressiva (normalização do ECG) em 8.2%. A mortalidade geral foi 23% no grupo chagásico e 10,6% no grupo controle, enquanto a letalidade por cardiopatia chagásica foi de 17% e por cardiopatias de outras etiologias no grupo controle foi de 2,3%. Não houve óbitos entre os 130 casos inicialmente na forma indeterminada nem entre seis casos de megaesôfogo. A mortalidade por doença de chagas foi duas vezes mais elevada no sexo masculino, com grande predominância no grupo etário de 30 a 59 anos de idade.

Relationship of physical activity with motor skills, aerobic fitness and body fat in preschool children: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study (Ballabeina).

Adiposity, low aerobic fitness and low levels of activity are all associated with clustered cardiovascular disease risk in children and their high prevalence represents a major public health concern. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship of objectively measured physical activity (PA) with motor skills (agility and balance), aerobic fitness and %body fat in young children. This study is a cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses using mixed linear models. Longitudinal data were adjusted for baseline outcome parameters. In all, 217 healthy preschool children (age 4-6 years, 48% boys) participated in this study. PA (accelerometers), agility (obstacle course), dynamic balance (balance beam), aerobic fitness (20-m shuttle run) and %body fat (bioelectric impedance) at baseline and 9 months later. PA was positively associated with both motor skills and aerobic fitness at baseline as well as with their longitudinal changes. Specifically, only vigorous, but not total or moderate PA, was related to changes in aerobic fitness. Higher PA was associated with less %body fat at baseline, but not with its change. Conversely, baseline motor skills, aerobic fitness or %body fat were not related to changes in PA. In young children, baseline PA was associated with improvements in motor skills and in aerobic fitness, an important determinant of cardiovascular risk.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.