Functional clustering of time series gene expression data by Granger causality

Background: A common approach for time series gene expression data analysis includes the clustering of genes with similar expression patterns throughout time. Clustered gene expression profiles point to the joint contribution of groups of genes to a particular cellular process. However, since genes belong to intricate networks, other features, besides comparable expression patterns, should provide additional information for the identification of functionally similar genes. Results: In this study we perform gene clustering through the identification of Granger causality between and within sets of time series gene expression data. Granger causality is based on the idea that the cause of an event cannot come after its consequence. Conclusions: This kind of analysis can be used as a complementary approach for functional clustering, wherein genes would be clustered not solely based on their expression similarity but on their topological proximity built according to the intensity of Granger causality among them.

A system for classification of time-series data from industrial non-destructive device

This work proposes a system for classification of industrial steel pieces by means of magnetic nondestructive device. The proposed classification system presents two main stages, online system stage and off-line system stage. In online stage, the system classifies inputs and saves misclassification information in order to perform posterior analyses. In the off-line optimization stage, the topology of a Probabilistic Neural Network is optimized by a Feature Selection algorithm combined with the Probabilistic Neural Network to increase the classification rate. The proposed Feature Selection algorithm searches for the signal spectrogram by combining three basic elements: a Sequential Forward Selection algorithm, a Feature Cluster Grow algorithm with classification rate gradient analysis and a Sequential Backward Selection. Also, a trash-data recycling algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal feedback samples selected from the misclassified ones.

Procedures of quality control and data analysis of multi-site ground-based observations for the absolute flux calibration of Gaia

The Gaia space mission is a major project for the European astronomical community. As challenging as it is, the processing and analysis of the huge data-flow incoming from Gaia is the subject of thorough study and preparatory work by the DPAC (Data Processing and Analysis Consortium), in charge of all aspects of the Gaia data reduction. This PhD Thesis was carried out in the framework of the DPAC, within the team based in Bologna. The task of the Bologna team is to define the calibration model and to build a grid of spectro-photometric standard stars (SPSS) suitable for the absolute flux calibration of the Gaia G-band photometry and the BP/RP spectrophotometry. Such a flux calibration can be performed by repeatedly observing each SPSS during the life-time of the Gaia mission and by comparing the observed Gaia spectra to the spectra obtained by our ground-based observations. Due to both the different observing sites involved and the huge amount of frames expected (≃100000), it is essential to maintain the maximum homogeneity in data quality, acquisition and treatment, and a particular care has to be used to test the capabilities of each telescope/instrument combination (through the “instrument familiarization plan”), to devise methods to keep under control, and eventually to correct for, the typical instrumental effects that can affect the high precision required for the Gaia SPSS grid (a few % with respect to Vega). I contributed to the ground-based survey of Gaia SPSS in many respects: with the observations, the instrument familiarization plan, the data reduction and analysis activities (both photometry and spectroscopy), and to the maintenance of the data archives. However, the field I was personally responsible for was photometry and in particular relative photometry for the production of short-term light curves. In this context I defined and tested a semi-automated pipeline which allows for the pre-reduction of imaging SPSS data and the production of aperture photometry catalogues ready to be used for further analysis. A series of semi-automated quality control criteria are included in the pipeline at various levels, from pre-reduction, to aperture photometry, to light curves production and analysis.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

Dynamic distance analysis : new geometric data structures and algorithms for the real-time calculation of tolerance violating regions in the digital mockup process

In vielen Industriezweigen, zum Beispiel in der Automobilindustrie, werden Digitale Versuchsmodelle (Digital MockUps) eingesetzt, um die Konstruktion und die Funktion eines Produkts am virtuellen Prototypen zu überprüfen. Ein Anwendungsfall ist dabei die Überprüfung von Sicherheitsabständen einzelner Bauteile, die sogenannte Abstandsanalyse. Ingenieure ermitteln dabei für bestimmte Bauteile, ob diese in ihrer Ruhelage sowie während einer Bewegung einen vorgegeben Sicherheitsabstand zu den umgebenden Bauteilen einhalten. Unterschreiten Bauteile den Sicherheitsabstand, so muss deren Form oder Lage verändert werden. Dazu ist es wichtig, die Bereiche der Bauteile, welche den Sicherhabstand verletzen, genau zu kennen. rnrnIn dieser Arbeit präsentieren wir eine Lösung zur Echtzeitberechnung aller den Sicherheitsabstand unterschreitenden Bereiche zwischen zwei geometrischen Objekten. Die Objekte sind dabei jeweils als Menge von Primitiven (z.B. Dreiecken) gegeben. Für jeden Zeitpunkt, in dem eine Transformation auf eines der Objekte angewendet wird, berechnen wir die Menge aller den Sicherheitsabstand unterschreitenden Primitive und bezeichnen diese als die Menge aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive. Wir präsentieren in dieser Arbeit eine ganzheitliche Lösung, welche sich in die folgenden drei großen Themengebiete unterteilen lässt.rnrnIm ersten Teil dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir Algorithmen, die für zwei Dreiecke überprüfen, ob diese toleranzverletzend sind. Hierfür präsentieren wir verschiedene Ansätze für Dreiecks-Dreiecks Toleranztests und zeigen, dass spezielle Toleranztests deutlich performanter sind als bisher verwendete Abstandsberechnungen. Im Fokus unserer Arbeit steht dabei die Entwicklung eines neuartigen Toleranztests, welcher im Dualraum arbeitet. In all unseren Benchmarks zur Berechnung aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive beweist sich unser Ansatz im dualen Raum immer als der Performanteste.rnrnDer zweite Teil dieser Arbeit befasst sich mit Datenstrukturen und Algorithmen zur Echtzeitberechnung aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive zwischen zwei geometrischen Objekten. Wir entwickeln eine kombinierte Datenstruktur, die sich aus einer flachen hierarchischen Datenstruktur und mehreren Uniform Grids zusammensetzt. Um effiziente Laufzeiten zu gewährleisten ist es vor allem wichtig, den geforderten Sicherheitsabstand sinnvoll im Design der Datenstrukturen und der Anfragealgorithmen zu beachten. Wir präsentieren hierzu Lösungen, die die Menge der zu testenden Paare von Primitiven schnell bestimmen. Darüber hinaus entwickeln wir Strategien, wie Primitive als toleranzverletzend erkannt werden können, ohne einen aufwändigen Primitiv-Primitiv Toleranztest zu berechnen. In unseren Benchmarks zeigen wir, dass wir mit unseren Lösungen in der Lage sind, in Echtzeit alle toleranzverletzenden Primitive zwischen zwei komplexen geometrischen Objekten, bestehend aus jeweils vielen hunderttausend Primitiven, zu berechnen. rnrnIm dritten Teil präsentieren wir eine neuartige, speicheroptimierte Datenstruktur zur Verwaltung der Zellinhalte der zuvor verwendeten Uniform Grids. Wir bezeichnen diese Datenstruktur als Shrubs. Bisherige Ansätze zur Speicheroptimierung von Uniform Grids beziehen sich vor allem auf Hashing Methoden. Diese reduzieren aber nicht den Speicherverbrauch der Zellinhalte. In unserem Anwendungsfall haben benachbarte Zellen oft ähnliche Inhalte. Unser Ansatz ist in der Lage, den Speicherbedarf der Zellinhalte eines Uniform Grids, basierend auf den redundanten Zellinhalten, verlustlos auf ein fünftel der bisherigen Größe zu komprimieren und zur Laufzeit zu dekomprimieren.rnrnAbschießend zeigen wir, wie unsere Lösung zur Berechnung aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive Anwendung in der Praxis finden kann. Neben der reinen Abstandsanalyse zeigen wir Anwendungen für verschiedene Problemstellungen der Pfadplanung.

Identifying mechanisms of treatment effects and recovery in rehabilitation of schizophrenia: longitudinal analytic methods

The longitudinal dimension of schizophrenia and related severe mental illness is a key component of theoretical models of recovery. However, empirical longitudinal investigations have been underrepresented in the psychopathology of schizophrenia. Similarly, traditional approaches to longitudinal analysis of psychopathological data have had serious limitations. The utilization of modern longitudinal methods is necessary to capture the complexity of biopsychosocial models of treatment and recovery in schizophrenia. The present paper summarizes empirical data from traditional longitudinal research investigating recovery in symptoms, neurocognition, and social functioning. Studies conducted under treatment as usual conditions are compared to psychosocial intervention studies and potential treatment mechanisms of psychosocial interventions are discussed. Investigations of rehabilitation for schizophrenia using the longitudinal analytic strategies of growth curve and time series analysis are demonstrated. The respective advantages and disadvantages of these modern methods are highlighted. Their potential use for future research of treatment effects and recovery in schizophrenia is also discussed.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Integrated data acquisition and processing to determine metabolite contents, relaxation times, and macromolecule baseline in single examinations of individual subjects

Absolute quantitation of clinical (1)H-MR spectra is virtually always incomplete for single subjects because the separate determination of spectrum, baseline, and transverse and longitudinal relaxation times in single subjects is prohibitively long. Integrated Processing and Acquisition of Data (IPAD) based on a combined 2-dimensional experimental and fitting strategy is suggested to substantially improve the information content from a given measurement time. A series of localized saturation-recovery spectra was recorded and combined with 2-dimensional prior-knowledge fitting to simultaneously determine metabolite T(1) (from analysis of the saturation-recovery time course), metabolite T(2) (from lineshape analysis based on metabolite and water peak shapes), macromolecular baseline (based on T(1) differences and analysis of the saturation-recovery time course), and metabolite concentrations (using prior knowledge fitting and conventional procedures of absolute standardization). The procedure was tested on metabolite solutions and applied in 25 subjects (15-78 years old). Metabolite content was comparable to previously found values. Interindividual variation was larger than intraindividual variation in repeated spectra for metabolite content as well as for some relaxation times. Relaxation times were different for various metabolite groups. Parts of the interindividual variation could be explained by significant age dependence of relaxation times.

Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.