Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

The international importance of the archipelago of Cape Verde for marine turtles, in particular the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta

[ES] The shores of Cape Verde hosts one of the most important nesting populations of the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta in the world, as well as important feeding grounds for hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata and green turtles Chelonia mydas. In the past few years, a number of scientific studies have demonstrated the relevance of the waters and beaches of this archipelago for the conservation of these endangered marine megavertebrates. This article aims to bring together the most relevant scientific information published on the subject so far. In addition, we will provide an overview of the current situation of sea turtles in Cape Verde, their conservation status and their importance in an international context.

Zróżnicowanie struktury leśnych zgrupowań ślimaków jako efekt uwarunkowań naturalnych i antropogenicznych na przykładzie grądów w Wielkopolsce

Wydział Biologii

Alterations in monovarietal, blended and aromatized Portuguese virgin olive oils under four storage conditions for 12 months

"Though olive oil is a perishable product, there is not a European regulation for maximum consumption time after production, in part because its durability depends on the storage conditions. The main objectives of this study were to compare the influence of the type of storage on changes of Portuguese virgin olive oils and to verify whether the addition of Catostylus tagi could increase the oxidative stability of olive oil. Over 12 months, the conservation status of monovarietal and blended olive oils in four contexts possible to be used by the consumer was monitored. The analyzed parameters were chlorophyll content, free acidity, peroxide value, specific extinction coefficients at 232 and 270 nm and delta K. Spaced determinations of iodine index and total tocopherol contents complemented the study. Results showed that at Mediterranean temperatures and normal storage procedure, the mean time to reach maximum peroxides value was 12–13 months. At artificial light storage, C. tagi was effective in reducing peroxides evolution by 11 %."

An overview of the submerged sea caves of Sagres (South of Portugal-Algarve)

The submerged sea caves of Sagres are located within the “Parque Natural do Sudoeste Alentejano e Costa Vicentina (PNSACV)” Marine Protected Area (MPA). This MPA integrates the national network of protected areas, addressed by the National Institute for Nature Conservation and Forest (ICNF) and was declared Site of Community Importance (SCI) under the Habitats Directive. Under the Annex I from the Habitat Directive these habitat caves are included in “8330 Submerged or partially submerged sea caves”. This conservation status should provide sufficient concern to have detailed information on biodiversity. However, among marine researcher, little is still known about these submerged sea caves and tunnels habitats. The only well-known study dealing with the Sagres sea caves was conducted in the late 80s and was only published in 2001. For effective management of such specific habitats a clear understanding of their localization and extension, the assessment of the biological communities, its conservation importance, its monitoring options and their sensitivity to natural change and human disturbance need to be a relatively clear. This report, produced under the MeshAtlantic Project, provides an overview of the available published and unpublished information relevant for the conservation management of the subtidal caves of Sagres. It mainly aims to be a base contribution for future studies.

Highly polymorphic microsatellite markers for the Mediterranean endemic fan mussel Pinna nobilis

Pinna nobilis is an endemic bivalve of the Mediterranean Sea whose populations have decreased in the last decades due to human pressure; as a consequence, it was declared a protected species in 1992. Despite its conservation status, few genetic studies using mitochondrial markers have been published. We report on the isolation and development of 10 microsatellite loci for the fan mussel, Pinna nobilis. All loci (2 di-nucleotide, 5 tri-nucleotide, 2 tetra-nucleotide and 1 penta-nucleotide) are characterized by high levels of polymorphism in 76 individuals tested from two populations in the Balearic Islands (Spain, Western Mediterranean Sea). The number of alleles ranged from 4 to 24 and expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.4269 to 0.9400. These microsatellites could be very useful for the assessment of the genetic diversity and connectivity patterns of P. nobilis and the establishment of new conservation strategies.

Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile in its westernmost biogeographical limit (northwestern Alboran Sea): Meadows characterisation, phenology and flowering events

Posidonia oceanica is a Mediterranean endemic seagrass species that forms meadows covering ca. 2.5–4.5 millions of hectares, representing ca.25 % of the infralittoral and shallow circalittoral (down to 50m) bottoms of the Mediterranean. This seagrass is considered a habitat-engineer species and provides an elevated number of ecosystem services. In addition the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) includes seagrass like elements to evaluate the “Good Environmental Status��� of the European coasts. Information about their phenological characteristic and structure of the meadows is needed for indicator estimations in order to establish their conservation status. The studied meadows are located in the westernmost limit of the P. oceanica distribution (North-western Alboran Sea) in the vecinity of the Strait of Gibraltar, an Atlantic-Mediterranean water transition area. Four sites were selected from East to West: Paraje Natural de Acantilados de Maro-Cerro Gordo (hereafter Maro), Special Area of Conservation “Calahonda” (hereafter Calahonda), Site of Community Importance Estepona (hereafter Estepona) and Punta Chullera (hereafter Chullera) where P. oceanica present their westernmost meadows. Phenological data were recorded from mid November to mid December in P. oceanica patches located at 2 – 3 m depth. At each site three types of patches (patch area <1m2, small patches; 1-2 m2, medium patches and >2 m2, large patches) were sampled. At each patch and site, 3 quadrants of 45 x 45 cm were sampled for shoot and inflorescences density measurements. In each quadrant, 10 random shoots were sampled for shoot morphology (shoot height and number of leaves). Shoot and inflorescences densities were standardized to squared meters. All the studied P. oceanica meadows develop on rocks and they present a fragmented structure with a coverage ranging between ca. 45% in Calahonda and Estepona and ca. 31% in Maro. The meadows of Chullera are reduced to a few small - medium patches with areas ranging between 0.5-1.5 m2 (Fig. 1). The meadows of Chullera and Estepona presented similar values of shoot density (ca. 752 – 662 shoots m-2, respectively) and leaf height (ca. 25 cm). Similarly, the Calahonda and Maro meadows also showed similar values of shoot density (ca. 510 – 550 shoots m-2, respectively) but displaying lower values than those of sites located closer to the Strait of Gibraltar. Regarding patch sizes and leaf height, the longest leaves (ca. 25 cm) were found in medium and large patches, but the number of leaves per shoot were higher in the small and the medium size patches (ca. 6.3 leaves per shoot). Flowering was only detected at the Calahonda meadows with maximum values of ca. 330 inflorescences m-2 (115.2 ± 98.2 inflorescences m-2, n= 9; mean ± SD) (Fig.1). Inflorescence density was not significant different among patches of different sizes. In the Alboran Sea and unlike the studied meadows, extensive beds of P. oceanica occur at the National Park of Cabo de Gata (northeastern Alboran Sea), but from east to west (Strait of Gibraltar), meadows are gradually fragmenting and their depth range decrease from 30m to 2m depth between Cabo de Gata and Chullera, respectively. Probably, the Atlantic influence and the characteristic oceanographic conditions of the Alboran Sea (i.e., higher turbidity, higher water turbulence) represent a developmental limiting factor for P. oceanica at higher depths. Similarities between the meadows located closer to Strait of Gibraltar (Chullera and Estepona) were detected as well as between those more distant (Calahonda and Maro). The first ones showed higher values of shoot densities and leaf heights than the formers, which could be relating to the higher hydrodynamic exposure found at Chullera and Estepona meadows. Regarding flowering events, sexual reproduction in P. oceanica is not common in different locations of the Mediterranean Sea. The available information seems to indicate that flowering represent an irregular event and it is related to high seawater temperature. In fact, the flowering episodes that occurred in Calahonda in November 2015, match with the warmest year ever recorded. This is the third flowering event registered in these meadows located close to the westernmost distributional limit of P. oceanica (Málaga, Alboran Sea), which could indicates that these meadows presents a healthy status. Furthermore, the absence of significant differences in relation to inflorescence density between patches of different sizes may be indicating that the fragmentation does not necessarily influence on the flowering of this seagrass species.

Patterns in the space use of the Bearded Reedling, Panurus biarmicus, on the Tay Reedbeds, Scotland

This thesis presents research into the space use of a specialist reedbed Passerine, the Bearded Reedling, or Bearded Tit, Panurus biarmicus, with a view to inform the conservation of this species and reedbeds as a whole. How a species uses space, and how space use changes between individuals or over time, can influence: the ability to forage and hunt effectively, breeding success, susceptibility to predation, genetic health, disease spread, robustness against environmental change and ultimately, colonisation or extinction. Thus, understanding the space use of animals can provide critical insight into ecological systems. Birds offer interesting models when studying animal space use, as, by being intrinsically mobile, many bird species can occupy multiple spatial scales. As a consequence of being completely dependent on patchy and ephemeral reedbed habitats, the Bearded Reedling, has a clustered, inhomogeneous distribution throughout its range. This drives the existence of distinct spatial scales upon which space use studies should be characterised. Distribution and movement within a single reedbed can be considered local-scale, while spatial processes between reedbeds can be considered wide-scale. Temporal processes may act upon both of these scales. For example, changing interactions with predators may influence nest positioning at a local-scale, while seasonal changes in resource requirements might drive processes such as migration at a wide-scale. The Bearded Reedling has a wide temperate breeding range, extending over much of Eurasia. On the IUCN’s red list, it is listed as ‘of least concern’, with an estimated European population between 240,000-480,000 breeding pairs. Despite its relatively favourable conservation status, its dependence on reedbed habitats drives a fragmented distribution, with populations being concentrated in small, isolated, stands. Over the last century reedbed wetlands have suffered rapid declines caused by drainage schemes undertaken to improve land for development or agriculture. Additionally, many remaining reed stands are subject to extensive commercial management to produce thatch or biofuel. Conversely, in other areas, management is driven by conservation motives which recognise the present threats to reedbeds, and aim to encourage the diversity of species associated with these habitats. As the Bearded Reedling is fundamentally linked to the quality and structure of a reed stand, understanding the space use of this species will offer information for the direct conservation of this specialist species, and for the effects of reedbed management as a whole. This thesis first presents studies of space use at a local-scale. All local-scale research is conducted at the Tay Reedbeds in eastern Scotland. Mist netting and bird ringing data are used within capture recapture models, which include an explicit spatial component, to gain insight into the abundance of the Bearded Reedling on the Tay. This abundance estimation approach suggests the Tay reedbeds are a stronghold for this species on the British Isles, and that, as a high latitude site, the Tay may have importance for range expansion. A combination of transect surveys and radio-tracking data are then used to establish the local-scale space use of this species during the breeding and autumnal seasons. These data are related to changes in the structure of reed caused by local management in the form of mosaic winter reed cutting. Results suggest that birds exploit young and cut patches of reed as foraging resources when they are available, and that old, unmanaged reed is critical for nesting and winter foraging. Further local-scale studies concern the spatial patterns in the nesting habits of this species. Mosaic reed cutting creates clear edges in a reedbed. Artificial nests placed in the Tay Reedbeds demonstrate increased nest predation rates closer to the edges of cut patches. Additionally, high predation rates become reduced as the cut reed re-grows, suggesting that reed cutting may increase accessibility of the stand to predators. As Bearded Reedling nests are uncommon and difficult to locate, the timing, site selection and structure of a sample of real nests from the Tay is then detailed. These demonstrate an early, and relatively rigid breeding onset in this species, the importance of dense, compacted reeds as nesting sites and a degree of flexibility in nest structure. Conservation efforts will also benefit from studies into wide-scale spatial processes. These may be important when establishing how colonisation events occur and when predicting the effects of climatic change. The Bearded Reedling has been traditionally considered a resident species which only occasionally undertakes wide-scale, between-reedbed, movements. Indeed, the ecology of this species suggests strict year round local residency to reedbeds, with distinct seasonal changes in diet allowing occupation of these habitats year round. The European ringing recoveries of this species, since the 1970s are investigated to better characterise the wider movements of specialist resident. These suggest residency in southern populations, but higher instances of movement than expected in more northerly regions. In these regions wide-scale movement patterns resemble those of partial regular migratory species. An understanding of local and wide-scale spatial processes can offer a strong foundation on which to build conservation strategies. This thesis aims to use studies of space use to provide this foundation for the Bearded Reedling and offer further insight into the ecology of reedbed habitats as a whole. The thesis concludes by proposing an effective strategy for the conservation management of reedbeds that will especially benefit the Bearded Reedling.

Biotic and abiotic parameters that distinguish types of temporary ponds in a Portuguese Mediterranean ecosystem

Temporary ponds are seasonal wetland habitats subjected to extreme and unstable ecological conditions. Some are classified as priority habitats for conservation by the European Union Habitats Directive. Our study area was the coastal plain of southwest Portugal, which spans across 100km north to south and hosts a large number of temporary ponds as a consequence of climatic and edaphic characteristics. Field sampling of floristic and edaphic data was carried out in 24 temporary ponds every spring between 2005 and 2008. We recorded a total of 174 plant species identified within visually homogeneous plots. We included the data in a geographic information system and classified ponds according to their floristic composition, using a biotic regionalization analysis based on species presence/absence, which is a practical and unambiguous criterion. We found three significantly different groups of ponds which corresponded to an eco-physiognomic pond typology: Mediterranean temporary ponds, marshlands, and disturbed ponds. For the first two pond types we defined characteristic or indicator plant species. We searched also for relationships between pond type and a series of large-scale climatic, geographic, and geological variables, as well as local-scale physical and chemical properties of the soil. Pond type was distinguished by a complex combination of some of these variables, including environmental energy, soil texture, nitrogen content of the soil and pH. A practical way of discriminating between different

Juniperus navicularis - a study of Portuguese population structure and fitness

Juniperus navicularis Gand. is a dioecious endemic conifer that constitutes the understory of seaside pine forests in Portugal, areas currently threatened by increasing urban expansion. The aim of this study is to assess the conservation status of previously known populations of this species located on its core area of distribution. The study was performed in south-west coast of Portugal. Three populations varying in size and pine density were analyzed. Number of individuals, population density, spatial distribution and individual characteristics of junipers were estimated. Female cone, seed characteristics and seed viability were also evaluated. Results suggest that J. navicularis populations are vulnerable because seminal recruitment is scarce, what may lead to a reduction of genetic variability due solely to vegetative propagation. This vulnerability seems to be strongly determined by climatic constraints toward increasing aridity. Ratio between male and female shrubs did not differ from 1:1 in any population. Deviations from 1:1 between mature and non-mature plants were found in all populations, denoting population ageing. Very low seed viability was observed. A major part of described Juniperus navicularis populations have disappeared through direct habitat loss to urban development, loss of fitness in drier and warmer locations and low seed viability. This study is the first to address J. navicularis conservation, and represents a valuable first step toward this species preservation.

Can birds play a role as High Nature Value indicators of montado system?

Montados form a heterogeneous landscape of wooded matrix dominated by cork and/or holm oak with open areas characterized by fuzzy boundaries. Montado supports a high biological diversity associated to low intensity management and a landscape diversity provided by a continuous gradient of land cover. Among other features this permits the classification of montados as a High Nature Value (HNV) system. We assessed the role of birds as HNV indicators for montado, and tested several bird groups—farmland, edge, forest generalists and forest specialists species; and some universal indicators such as species conservation status, Shannon’s diversity index and species richness. Our study areas covered the North–South distribution of cork oak in Portugal, and we surveyed the breeding bird communities across 117 sampling sites. In addition to variables related to management and sanitary status, we considered variables that characterize the landscape heterogeneity inside the montado—trees and shrub density and richness of woody vegetation. Our results suggest that specific bird guilds can be used as HNV indicators of particular typologies of montado, and highlight the need to develop an indicator that could be transversally applied to all types of montado.

Weather conditions and moon phase influence on Tropical Screech Owl and Burrowing Owl detection by playback

Sampling owls in a reliable and standardized way is not easy given their nocturnal habits. Playback is a widely employed technique to survey owls. We assessed the influence of wind speed, temperature, air humidity, and moon phase on the response rate of the Tropical Screech Owl Megascops choliba and the Burrowing Owl Athene cunicularia in southeast Brazil. Tropical Screech Owl occurs in scrubland and wooded habitats, whereas the Burrowing Owl inhabits open grasslands to grassland savannah. Sixteen survey points were systematically distributed in four different landscape types, ranging from open grassland to woodland savannah. Field work was conducted in 2004 from June to December, the reproductive season of the two owl species. Our study design consisted of eight field expeditions of five nights each; four expeditions occurred under full moon and four under new moon conditions. At each survey station, we performed a broadcast/listening sequence involving several calls and vocalizations from each species, starting with Tropical Screech Owl (the smaller species). From 112 sample periods for each species within their respective preferred habitats, we obtained 54 responses from Tropical Screech Owl (48% response rate) and 30 responses (27% response rate) from Burrowing Owl. We found that the response rate of Tropical Screech Owl increased under conditions of higher temperature and air humidity, while the response rate of Burrowing Owl was higher during full moon nights.

Priority treatment for high occupancy vehicles : project status report /

Mode of access: Internet.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.