Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Benedict-Webb-Rubin equation of state constants for N2O4 ⇄ 2NO2,NO,and O2

Benedict-Webb-Rubin equation of state constants for NO, O2, and the equilibrium mixture N2O4 ⇄ 2NO2 are reported.

A generalized equation for diffusion in liquids

The association parameter in the diffuswn equaiior, dye fo Wiike one Chong has been interpreted in deferminable properties, thus permitting easily the calculation of the same for unknown systems. The proposed eqyotion a!se holds goods for water as soiute in organic solvenfs. The over-all percentage error remains the sarrse as that of the original equation.

Extended self-similarity works for the Burgers equation and why

Extended self-similarity (ESS), a procedure that remarkably extends the range of scaling for structure functions in Navier-Stokes turbulence and thus allows improved determination of intermittency exponents, has never been fully explained. We show that ESS applies to Burgers turbulence at high Reynolds numbers and we give the theoretical explanation of the numerically observed improved scaling at both the IR and UV end, in total a gain of about three quarters of a decade: there is a reduction of subdominant contributions to scaling when going from the standard structure function representation to the ESS representation. We conjecture that a similar situation holds for three-dimensional incompressible turbulence and suggest ways of capturing subdominant contributions to scaling.

Electron energy equation for an atomic radiating plasma

The electron-energy equation for an atomic radiating plasma is considered in this work. Using the atomic model of Bates, Kingston and McWhirter, the radiation loss-term valid for all optical thicknesses is obtained. A study of the energy gained by electrons in inelastic collisions shows that the radiation loss term can be neglected only for rapidly-decaying or fast-growing plasmas. Emission from optically thin plasmas is considered next and an exact expression is given for the total radiation loss in a recombination continuum. A derivation of the Kramers-Unsöld approximation is presented and the error involved in estimating the total emitted recombination radiation by this approximation is shown to be small.

Approximation of solutions to fractional integral equation

In this paper we shall study a fractional integral equation in an arbitrary Banach space X. We used the analytic semigroups theory of linear operators and the fixed point method to establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the given problem. We also prove the existence of global solution. The existence and convergence of the Faedo–Galerkin solution to the given problem is also proved in a separable Hilbert space with some additional assumptions on the operator A. Finally we give an example to illustrate the applications of the abstract results.

Asymtotic solution of the Frieman and Book equation for the pair-correlation function

Using Thomé's procedure, the asymptotic solutions of the Frieman and Book equation for the two-particle correlation in a plasma have been obtained in a complete form. The solution is interpreted in terms of the Lorentz distance. The exact expressions for the internal energy and pressure are evaluated and they are found to be a generalization of the result obtained earlier by others.

Computationally efficient optical tomographic reconstructions through waveletizing the normalized quadratic perturbation equation - art. no.61640R

In this paper, we present a wavelet - based approach to solve the non-linear perturbation equation encountered in optical tomography. A particularly suitable data gathering geometry is used to gather a data set consisting of differential changes in intensity owing to the presence of the inhomogeneous regions. With this scheme, the unknown image, the data, as well as the weight matrix are all represented by wavelet expansions, thus yielding the representation of the original non - linear perturbation equation in the wavelet domain. The advantage in use of the non-linear perturbation equation is that there is no need to recompute the derivatives during the entire reconstruction process. Once the derivatives are computed, they are transformed into the wavelet domain. The purpose of going to the wavelet domain, is that, it has an inherent localization and de-noising property. The use of approximation coefficients, without the detail coefficients, is ideally suited for diffuse optical tomographic reconstructions, as the diffusion equation removes most of the high frequency information and the reconstruction appears low-pass filtered. We demonstrate through numerical simulations, that through solving merely the approximation coefficients one can reconstruct an image which has the same information content as the reconstruction from a non-waveletized procedure. In addition we demonstrate a better noise tolerance and much reduced computation time for reconstructions from this approach.

A simple technique for approximate solutions of the Falkner-Skan equation

A simple, sufficiently accurate and efficient method for approximate solutions of the Falkner-Skan equation is proposed here for a wide range of the pressure gradient parameter. The proposed approximate solutions are obtained utilising a known solution of another differential equation.

Correlations and the Ring-Kinetic Equation in Dense Sheared Granular Flows

A formal way of deriving fluctuation-correlation relations in dense sheared granular media, starting with the Enskog approximation for the collision integral in the Chapman-Enskog theory, is discussed. The correlation correction to the viscosity is obtained using the ring-kinetic equation, in terms of the correlations in the hydrodynamic modes of the linearised Enskog equation. It is shown that the Green-Kubo formula for the shear viscosity emerges from the two-body correlation function obtained from the ring-kinetic equation.

Generalized Equation for Compression Ratio

For highly compressible normally consolidated saturated soil the compression index, Cc, is not constant over the entire pressure range. However, the ratio of the compression index and the initial specific volume, generally known as the compression ratio, appears to be constant. Thus settlement seems to depend on Cc/(1 + e) rather than Cc alone. Using the theoretical zero air voids line and the generalized compressibility equation for normally consolidated saturated soils, a generalized and simple equation for compression has been derived in the form: C'c = 0.003wL.

The Alfvén Wave Equation for Magnetospheric Plasmas

It is shown that besides the continuous spectrum which damps away as inverse power of time, the coupled Alfvén wave equation, which gives coupling between a shear Alfvén wave and a surface wave, can also admit a well behaved harmonic solution in the closed form for a set of initial conditions. This solution, though valid for finite time intervals, points out that the Alfvén surface waves can have a band of frequency (instead of a monochromatic frequency for a nonsheared magnetic field) within which the local field line resonance frequency can lie, and thus can excite magnetic pulsations with latitude-dependent frequency. By considering magnetic fields not only varying in magnitude but also in direction, it is shown that the time interval for the validity of the harmonic solution depend upon the angle between the magnetic field directions on either side of the magnetopause. For small values of the angle the time interval can become appreciably large.

Probability Distribution of the Eigenvalues of the Random String Equation

The probability distribution of the eigenvalues of a second-order stochastic boundary value problem is considered. The solution is characterized in terms of the zeros of an associated initial value problem. It is further shown that the probability distribution is related to the solution of a first-order nonlinear stochastic differential equation. Solutions of this equation based on the theory of Markov processes and also on the closure approximation are presented. A string with stochastic mass distribution is considered as an example for numerical work. The theoretical probability distribution functions are compared with digital simulation results. The comparison is found to be reasonably good.

Brownian motion of spins; generalized spin Langevin equation

We derive the Langevin equations for a spin interacting with a heat bath, starting from a fully dynamical treatment. The obtained equations are non-Markovian with multiplicative fluctuations and concommitant dissipative terms obeying the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. In the Markovian limit our equations reduce to the phenomenological equations proposed by Kubo and Hashitsume. The perturbative treatment on our equations lead to Landau-Lifshitz equations and to other known results in the literature.

Alfvén waves in inhomogeneous magnetic fields: An integrodifferential equation formulation

An integrodifferential formulation for the equation governing the Alfvén waves in inhomogeneous magnetic fields is shown to be similar to the polyvibrating equation of Mangeron. Exploiting this similarity, a time‐dependent solution for smooth initial conditions is constructed. The important feature of this solution is that it separates the parts giving the Alfvén wave oscillations of each layer of plasma and the interaction of these oscillations representing the phase mixing.