Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelos de resposta à interação entre fármacos anestésicos : análise de regressão e análise de Clusters

Os avanços tecnológicos e científicos, na área da saúde, têm vindo a aliar áreas como a Medicina e a Matemática, cabendo à ciência adequar de forma mais eficaz os meios de investigação, diagnóstico, monitorização e terapêutica. Os métodos desenvolvidos e os estudos apresentados nesta dissertação resultam da necessidade de encontrar respostas e soluções para os diferentes desafios identificados na área da anestesia. A índole destes problemas conduz, necessariamente, à aplicação, adaptação e conjugação de diferentes métodos e modelos das diversas áreas da matemática. A capacidade para induzir a anestesia em pacientes, de forma segura e confiável, conduz a uma enorme variedade de situações que devem ser levadas em conta, exigindo, por isso, intensivos estudos. Assim, métodos e modelos de previsão, que permitam uma melhor personalização da dosagem a administrar ao paciente e por monitorizar, o efeito induzido pela administração de cada fármaco, com sinais mais fiáveis, são fundamentais para a investigação e progresso neste campo. Neste contexto, com o objetivo de clarificar a utilização em estudos na área da anestesia de um ajustado tratamento estatístico, proponho-me abordar diferentes análises estatísticas para desenvolver um modelo de previsão sobre a resposta cerebral a dois fármacos durante sedação. Dados obtidos de voluntários serão utilizados para estudar a interação farmacodinâmica entre dois fármacos anestésicos. Numa primeira fase são explorados modelos de regressão lineares que permitam modelar o efeito dos fármacos no sinal cerebral BIS (índice bispectral do EEG – indicador da profundidade de anestesia); ou seja estimar o efeito que as concentrações de fármacos têm na depressão do eletroencefalograma (avaliada pelo BIS). Na segunda fase deste trabalho, pretende-se a identificação de diferentes interações com Análise de Clusters bem como a validação do respetivo modelo com Análise Discriminante, identificando grupos homogéneos na amostra obtida através das técnicas de agrupamento. O número de grupos existentes na amostra foi, numa fase exploratória, obtido pelas técnicas de agrupamento hierárquicas, e a caracterização dos grupos identificados foi obtida pelas técnicas de agrupamento k-means. A reprodutibilidade dos modelos de agrupamento obtidos foi testada através da análise discriminante. As principais conclusões apontam que o teste de significância da equação de Regressão Linear indicou que o modelo é altamente significativo. As variáveis propofol e remifentanil influenciam significativamente o BIS e o modelo melhora com a inclusão do remifentanil. Este trabalho demonstra ainda ser possível construir um modelo que permite agrupar as concentrações dos fármacos, com base no efeito no sinal cerebral BIS, com o apoio de técnicas de agrupamento e discriminantes. Os resultados desmontram claramente a interacção farmacodinâmica dos dois fármacos, quando analisamos o Cluster 1 e o Cluster 3. Para concentrações semelhantes de propofol o efeito no BIS é claramente diferente dependendo da grandeza da concentração de remifentanil. Em suma, o estudo demostra claramente, que quando o remifentanil é administrado com o propofol (um hipnótico) o efeito deste último é potenciado, levando o sinal BIS a valores bastante baixos.

Evolução, a curto prazo, do perfil do estado de nutrição no transplante hepático, em adultos : contributo para otimização da abordagem clínica e nutricional

RESUMO:Contexto: A avaliação do estado de nutrição do doente com indicação para transplante hepático (TH) deve ser abrangente, considerando o amplo espetro de situações clínicas e metabólicas. As alterações metabólicas relacionadas com a doença hepática podem limitar a aplicação de métodos de avaliação nutricional, subestimando a desnutrição. Após o TH, é expectável a reversão dos distúrbios metabólicos da doença hepática, pela melhoria da função do fígado. No entanto, algumas complicações metabólicas podem surgir após o TH, relacionadas com a má-nutrição, a desnervação hepática e o uso prolongado de imunossupressão, comprometendo os resultados clínicos a longo-prazo. A medição longitudinal e confiável do metabolismo energético e dos compartimentos corporais após o TH, avaliada em conjunto com fatores influentes no estado de nutrição, pode identificar precocemente situações de risco e otimizar e individualizar estratégias clínicas e nutricionais com vantagens no prognóstico. Objetivo: Avaliar longitudinalmente, a curto prazo, o estado de nutrição após o TH em doentes com insuficiência hepática por doença crónica e identificar os fatores, para além da cirurgia, que determinam diferentes evoluções do metabolismo energético e da composição corporal. Métodos: Foi estudada uma coorte de indivíduos com indicação para TH por doença hepática crónica, admitidos consecutivamente para TH ortotópico eletivo, durante 2 anos. Foram programados 3 momentos de avaliação: na última consulta pré-TH (T0), logo que adquirida autonomia respiratória e funcional após o TH (T1) e um mês após o TH (T2). Nesses momentos, foram medidos no mesmo dia: o suprimento nutricional por recordatório das últimas 24 horas, o estado de nutrição por Avaliação Subjetiva Global (ASG), o gasto energético em repouso (GER) por calorimetria indireta, a antropometria, a composição corporal por bioimpedância elétrica tetrapolar multifrequências e a força muscular por dinamometria de preensão palmar. O índice de massa magra (IMM) e a massa celular corporal (MCC) foram usados como indicadores do músculo esquelético e a percentagem de massa gorda (%MG) e o índice de massa gorda (IMG) como indicadores de adiposidade. O GER foi comparado com o estimado pelas fórmulas de Harris-Benedict para classificação do estado metabólico em:hipermetabolismo (GER medido >120% do GER estimado), normometabolismo (GER medido entre 80 e 120% do GER estimado) e hipometabolismo (GER medido <80% do GER estimado). Foi utilizada análise multivariável: por regressão logística, para identificar variáveis associadas à possibilidade (odds ratio – OR) de pertencer a cada grupo metabólico pré-TH; por regressão linear múltipla, para identificar variáveis associadas à variação dos compartimentos corporais no período pós-TH; e por modelos de efeitos mistos generalizados, para identificar variáveis associadas à evolução do GER e dos compartimentos corporais entre o período pré- e pós-TH. Resultados: Foram incluídos 56 indivíduos com idade, média (DP), 53,7 (8,5) anos, 87,5% do sexo masculino, 23,2% com doença hepática crónica de etiologia etanólica. Após o TH, em 60,7% indivíduos foi administrado regime imunossupressor baseado no tacrolimus. Os indivíduos foram avaliados [mediana (AIQ)] 90,5 (P25: 44,2; P75: 134,5) dias antes do TH (T0), 9,0 (P25: 7,0; P75: 12,0) dias após o TH (T1) e 36,0 (P25: 31,0; P75: 43,0) dias após o TH (T2). Após o TH houve melhoria significativa do estado de nutrição, com diminuição da prevalência de desnutrição classificada pela ASG (37,5% em T0, 16,1% em T2, p<0,001). Antes do TH, 41,1% dos indivíduos eram normometabólicos, 37,5% hipometabólicos e 21,4% hipermetabólicos. A possibilidade de pertencer a cada grupo metabólico pré-TH associou-se à: idade (OR=0,899, p=0,010) e desnutrição pela ASG (OR=5,038, p=0,015) para o grupo normometabólico; e índice de massa magra (IMM, OR=1,264, p=0,049) e etiologia viral da doença hepática (OR=8,297, p=0,019) para o grupo hipermetabólico. Não se obteve modelo múltiplo para o grupo de hipometabólico pré-TH, mas foram identificadas associações univariáveis com a história de toxicodependência (OR=0,282, p=0,047) e com a sarcopénia pré- TH (OR=8,000, p=0,040). Após o TH, houve normalização significativa e progressiva do estado metabólico, indicada pelo aumento da prevalência de normometabolismo (41,1% em T0, 57,1% em T2, p=0,040). Foram identificados diferentes perfis de evolução do GER após o TH, estratificado pelo estado metabólico pré-TH: no grupo hipometabólico pré-TH, o GER (Kcal) aumentou significativa e progressivamente (1030,6 em T0; 1436,1 em T1, p=0,001; 1659,2 em T2, p<0,001); no grupo hipermetabólico pré-TH o GER diminuiu significativa e progressivamente (2097,1 em T0; 1662,5 em T1, p=0,024; 1493,0 em T2, p<0.001); no grupo normometabólico não houve variações significativas. Os perfis de evolução do GER associaram-se com: peso corporal (β=9,6, p<0,001) e suprimento energético (β=13,6, p=0,005) na amostra total; com peso corporal (β=7,1, p=0,018) e contributo energético dos lípidos (β=18,9, p=0,003) no grupo hipometabólico pré-TH; e com peso corporal (β=14,1, p<0,001) e desnutrição pela ASG (β=-171,0, p=0,007) no grupo normometabólico pré-TH.Houve redução transitória dos compartimentos corporais entre T0 e T1, mas a maioria destes recuperou para valores semelhantes aos pré-TH. As exceções foram a água extracelular, que diminuiu entre T0 e T2 (média 18,2 L e 17,8 L, p=0,042), a massa gorda (média 25,1 Kg e 21,7 Kg, p<0,001) e o IMG (média 10,6 Kg.m-2 e 9,3 Kg.m-2, p<0,001) que diminuíram entre T1 e T2. Relativamente à evolução dos indicadores de músculo esquelético e adiposidade ao longo do estudo: a evolução do IMM associou-se com força de preensão palmar (β=0,06, p<0,001), creatininémia (β=2,28, p<0,001) e número total de fármacos administrados (β=-0,21, p<0,001); a evolução da MCC associou-se com força de preensão palmar (β=0,16, p<0,001), creatininémia (β=4,17, p=0,008) e número total de fármacos administrados (β=-0,46, p<0,001); a evolução da %MG associou-se com força de preensão palmar (β=-0,11, p=0,028), história de toxicodependência (β=-5,75, p=0,024), creatininémia (β=-5,91, p=0,004) e suprimento proteico (β=-0,06, p=0,001); a evolução do IMG associou-se com história de toxicodependência (β=- 2,64, p=0,019), creatininémia (β=-2,86, p<0,001) e suprimento proteico (β=-0,02, p<0,001). A variação relativa (%Δ) desses compartimentos corporais entre T1 e T2 indicou o impacto da terapêutica imunossupressora na composição corporal: o regime baseado na ciclosporina associou-se positivamente com a %Δ do IMM (β=23,76, p<0,001) e %Δ da MCC (β=26,58, p<0,001) e negativamente com a %Δ MG (β=-25,64, p<0,001) e %Δ do IMG (β=-25,62, p<0,001), relativamente ao regime baseado no tacrolimus. Os esteróides não influenciaram a evolução do GER nem com a dos compartimentos corporais. Conclusões: O estado de nutrição, avaliado por ASG, melhorou significativamente após o TH, traduzida pela diminuição da prevalência de desnutrição. O normometabolismo pré-TH foi prevalente e associou-se à menor idade e à desnutrição pré- TH. O hipometabolismo pré-TH associou-se à história de toxicodependência e à sarcopénia pré-TH. O hipermetabolismo pré-TH associou-se ao maior IMM e à etiologia viral da doença hepática. Após o TH, houve normalização progressiva do estado metabólico. Foram identificados três perfis de evolução do GER, associando-se com: peso corporal e suprimento energético na amostra total; peso corporal e contributo energético dos lípidos no grupo hipometabólico pré- TH; e peso corporal e desnutrição pela ASG no grupo normometabólico pré-TH. Foram identificados diferentes perfis de evolução da composição corporal após TH. A evolução do músculo esquelético associou-se positivamente com a força de preensão palmar e a creatininémia e negativamente com o número total de fármacos administrados. A evolução da adiposidade (%MG e IMG) associou-se inversamente com a história de toxicodependência, a creatininémia e o suprimento proteico; adicionalmente, a %MG associou-se inversamente com a força de preensão palmar. O regime baseado na ciclosporina associou-se independentemente com diminuição da adiposidade e aumento do músculo esquelético, comparativamente ao regime baseado no tacrolimus.---------------------------ABSTRACT:Background: The assessment of nutritional status in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LTx) should be comprehensive, accounting for the wide spectrum of the clinical and metabolic conditions. The metabolic disturbances related to liver disease may limit the precision and accuracy of traditional nutritional assessment methods underestimating the undernourishment. After LTx, it is expected that many metabolic derangements improve with the recovery of liver function. However, some metabolic complications arising after LTx, related to nutritional status, hepatic denervation, and prolonged immunosuppression, may compromise the longterm outcome. A reliable longitudinal assessment of both energy metabolism and body compartments after LTx, combined with assessments of other factors potentially affecting the nutritional status, may enable a better interpretation on the relationship between the metabolic and the nutritional status. These reliable assessments may precociously identify nutritional risk conditions and optimize and customize clinical and nutritional strategies improving the prognosis. Objective: To assess longitudinally the nutritional status shortly after orthotopic LTx in patients with chronic liver disease, and identify factors, beyond surgery, determining different energy metabolism and body composition profiles.Methods: A cohort of consecutive patients who underwent LTx due to chronic liver disease was studied within a period of two years. The assessments were performed in three occasions: at the last visit before LTx (T0), after surgery as soon as respiratory and functional autonomy was established (T1), and approximately one month after surgery (T2). On each occasion all assessments were performed on the same day, and included: the dietary assessment by 24- hour dietary recall, nutritional status by the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), the resting energy expenditure (REE) by indirect calorimetry, anthropometry, body composition by multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis, and muscle strength by handgrip strength. Both the lean mass index (LMI) and body cell mass (BCM) were used as surrogates of skeletal muscle, and both the percentage of fat mass (%FM) and fat mass index (FMI) of adiposity. The REE was predicted according to the Harris and Benedict equation. Hypermetabolism was defined as a measured REE more than 120% of the predicted value; normometabolism as a measured REE within 80-120% of the predicted value; and hypometabolism as a measured REE less than 80% of the predicted value. Multiple regression analysis was used: by logistic regression to identify variables associated with odds of belong each pre-LTx metabolic groups; by linear multiple regression analysis to identify variables associated with body compartments relative variations (%Δ) in the post-LTx period; and by mixed effects models to identify variables associated with the REE and body compartments profiles pre- and post-LTx. Results: Fifty six patients with a mean (SD) of 53.7 (8.5) years of age were included, 87.5% were men and 23.2% with alcoholic liver disease. After LTx 60.7% individuals were assigned to tacrolimus-based immunosuppressive regimen. The patients were assessed at a median time (inter-quartil range) of 90.5 (P25 44.2; P75 134.5) days before LTx (T0), at a median time of 9.0 (P25 7.0; P75 12.0) (T1) and 36 (P25 31.0; P75 43.0) (T2) days after LTx. After LTx the nutritional status significantly improved: the SGA-undernourishment decreased from 37.5% (T0) to 16.1% (T2) (p<0.001). Before LTx, 41.1% patients were normometabolic, 37.5% hypometabolic, and 21.4% hypermetabolic. The predictors of each pre-LTx metabolic group were: age (OR=0.899, p=0.010) and SGA-undernourishment (OR=5.038, p=0.015) for the normometabolic group; and LMI (OR=1.264, p=0.049) and viral etiology of liver disease (OR=8.297, p=0.019) for the hypermetabolic group. No multiple model was found for the pre-LTx hypometabolic group, but univariate association was found with history of drug addiction (OR=0.282, p=0.047) and pre- LTx sarcopenia (OR=8.000, p=0.040). After LTx a significant normalization of the metabolic status occurred, indicated by the increase in the prevalence of normometabolic patients (from T0: 41.1% to T2: 57.1%, p=0.040). Different REE profiles were found with REE stratified by preoperative metabolic status: in the hypometabolic group a significant progressive increase in mean REE (Kcal) was observed (T0: 1030.6; T1: 1436.1, p=0.001; T2: 1659.2, p<0.001); in the hypermetabolic group, a significant progressive decrease in mean REE (Kcal) was observed (T0: 2097.1; T1: 1662.5, p=0.024; T2: 1493.0, p<0.001); and in the normometabolic group, no significant differences were found. The REE profiles were associated with: body weight (β- estimate=9.6, p<0.001) and energy intake (β-estimate=13.6, p=0.005) in the whole sample; with body weight (β-estimate=7.1, p=0.018) and %TEV from lipids (β-estimate=18.9, p=0.003) in the hypometabolic group; and with body weight (β-estimate=14.1, p<0.001), and SGAundernourishment (β-estimate=-171, p=0.007) in the normometabolic group. A transient decrease in most body compartments occurred from T0 to T1, with subsequent catch-up to similar preoperative values. Exceptions were the extracellular water, decreasing from T0 to T2 (mean 18.2 L to 17.8 L, p=0.042), the fat mass (mean 25.1 Kg to 21.7 Kg, p<0.001) and FMI (mean 10.6 Kg.m-2 to 9.3 Kg.m-2, p<0.001), decreasing from T1 to T2. Significant predictors of skeletal muscle and adiposity profiles were found: LMI evolution was associated with handgrip strength (β-estimate=0.06, p<0.001), serum creatinine (β- estimate=2.28, p<0.001) and number of medications (β-estimate=-0.21, p<0.001); BCM evolution was associated with handgrip strength (β-estimate=0.16, p<0.001), serum creatinine (β-estimate=4.17, p<0.001) and number of medications (β-estimate=-0.46, p<0.001); the %FM evolution was associated with handgrip strength (β-estimate=-0.11, p=0.028), history of drug addiction (β-estimate=-5.75, p=0.024), serum creatinine (β-estimate=-5.91, p=0.004) and protein intake (β-estimate=-0.06, p=0.001); and FMI evolution was associated with history of drug addiction (β-estimate=-2.64, p=0.019), serum creatinine (β-estimate=-2.86, p<0.001) and protein intake (β-estimate=-0.02, p<0.001). The %Δ of the aforementioned body compartments from T1 to T2 indicated the influence of immunosuppressive agents on body composition: the cyclosporine-based regimen, compared with tacrolimus-based regimen, was positively associated with %Δ LMI (β-estimate=23.76, p<0.001) and %Δ BCM (β- estimate=26.58, p<0.001), and inversely associated with %Δ FM (β-estimate=-25.64, p<0.001) and %Δ FMI (β-estimate=-25.62, p<0.001). No significant changes in REE or body composition were observed associated with dose or duration of steroid therapy. Conclusions: The SGA-assessed nutritional status improved shortly after LTx, with significant decrease in prevalence undernourished individuals. XXI Preoperative normometabolism was prevalent and was associated with younger age and SGAundernourishment before LTx. Preoperative hypometabolism was associated with history of drug addiction and pre-LTx sarcopenia. Preoperative hypermetabolism was associated with higher LMI and viral etiology of liver disease. A significant normalization of the metabolic status was observed after LTx. The REE profiles were positively predicted by body weight and energy intake in the whole sample, by body weight and percentage of energy intake from lipids in the preoperative hypometabolic patients, and by body weight and SGA–undernourishment in the preoperative normometabolic patients. Different body composition profiles were found after LTx. Skeletal muscle profile was positively associated with handgrip strength and serum creatinine, and inversely with the number of medications. The adiposity profile was inversely associated with history of drug addiction, serum creatinine and protein intake. Additionally, the %FM evolution was inversely associated with handgrip strength. The cyclosporine-based regimen, compared with tacrolimus-based regimen, was independently associated with skeletal muscle increase and adiposity decrease.

Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data on breast cancer

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

Correlation of wear in vivo and six laboratory wear methods.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the correlation between clinical wear rates of restorative materials and enamel (TRAC Research Foundation, Provo, USA) and the results of six laboratory test methods (ACTA, Alabama (generalized, localized), Ivoclar (vertical, volumetric), Munich, OHSU (abrasion, attrition), Zurich). METHODS: Individual clinical wear data were available from clinical trials that were conducted by TRAC Research Foundation (formerly CRA) together with general practitioners. For each of the n=28 materials (21 composite resins for intra-coronal restorations [20 direct and 1 indirect], 5 resin materials for crowns, 1 amalgam, enamel) a minimum of 30 restorations had been placed in posterior teeth, mainly molars. The recall intervals were up to 5 years with the majority of materials (n=27) being monitored, however, only for up to 2 years. For the laboratory data, the databases MEDLINE and IADR abstracts were searched for wear data on materials which were also clinically tested by TRAC Research Foundation. Only those data for which the same test parameters (e.g. number of cycles, loading force, type of antagonist) had been published were included in the study. A different quantity of data was available for each laboratory method: Ivoclar (n=22), Zurich (n=20), Alabama (n=17), OHSU and ACTA (n=12), Munich (n=7). The clinical results were summed up in an index and a linear mixed model was fitted to the log wear measurements including the following factors: material, time (0.5, 1, 2 and 3 years), tooth (premolar/molar) and gender (male/female) as fixed effects, and patient as random effect. Relative ranks were created for each material and method; the same was performed with the clinical results. RESULTS: The mean age of the subjects was 40 (±12) years. The materials had been mostly applied in molars (81%) and 95% of the intracoronal restorations were Class II restorations. The mean number of individual wear data per material was 25 (range 14-42). The mean coefficient of variation of clinical wear data was 53%. The only significant correlation was reached by OHSU (abrasion) with a Spearman r of 0.86 (p=0.001). Zurich, ACTA, Alabama generalized wear and Ivoclar (volume) had correlation coefficients between 0.3 and 0.4. For Zurich, Alabama generalized wear and Munich, the correlation coefficient improved if only composites for direct use were taken into consideration. The combination of different laboratory methods did not significantly improve the correlation. SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical wear of composite resins is mainly dependent on differences between patients and less on the differences between materials. Laboratory methods to test conventional resins for wear are therefore less important, especially since most of them do not reflect the clinical wear.

Quality of life depends on the drinking pattern in alcohol-dependent patients.

AIMS: In patients with alcohol dependence, health-related quality of life (QOL) is reduced compared with that of a normal healthy population. The objective of the current analysis was to describe the evolution of health-related QOL in adults with alcohol dependence during a 24-month period after initial assessment for alcohol-related treatment in a routine practice setting, and its relation to drinking pattern which was evaluated across clusters based on the predominant pattern of alcohol use, set against the influence of baseline variables METHODS: The Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Survey (MOS-SF-36) was used to measure QOL at baseline and quarterly for 2 years among participants in CONTROL, a prospective observational study of patients initiating treatment for alcohol dependence. The sample consisted of 160 adults with alcohol dependence (65.6% males) with a mean (SD) age of 45.6 (12.0) years. Alcohol use data were collected using TimeLine Follow-Back. Based on the participant's reported alcohol use, three clusters were identified: 52 (32.5%) mostly abstainers, 64 (40.0%) mostly moderate drinkers and 44 (27.5%) mostly heavy drinkers. Mixed-effect linear regression analysis was used to identify factors that were potentially associated with the mental and physical summary MOS-SF-36 scores at each time point. RESULTS: The mean (SD) MOS-SF-36 mental component summary score (range 0-100, norm 50) was 35.7 (13.6) at baseline [mostly abstainers: 40.4 (14.6); mostly moderate drinkers 35.6 (12.4); mostly heavy drinkers 30.1 (12.1)]. The score improved to 43.1 (13.4) at 3 months [mostly abstainers: 47.4 (12.3); mostly moderate drinkers 44.2 (12.7); mostly heavy drinkers 35.1 (12.9)], to 47.3 (11.4) at 12 months [mostly abstainers: 51.7 (9.7); mostly moderate drinkers 44.8 (11.9); mostly heavy drinkers 44.1 (11.3)], and to 46.6 (11.1) at 24 months [mostly abstainers: 49.2 (11.6); mostly moderate drinkers 45.7 (11.9); mostly heavy drinkers 43.7 (8.8)]. Mixed-effect linear regression multivariate analyses indicated that there was a significant association between a lower 2-year follow-up MOS-SF-36 mental score and being a mostly heavy drinker (-6.97, P < 0.001) or mostly moderate drinker (-3.34 points, P = 0.018) [compared to mostly abstainers], being female (-3.73, P = 0.004), and having a Beck Inventory scale score ≥8 (-6.54, P < 0.001), at baseline. The mean (SD) MOS-SF-36 physical component summary score was 48.8 (10.6) at baseline, remained stable over the follow-up and did not differ across the three clusters. Mixed-effect linear regression univariate analyses found that the average 2-year follow-up MOS-SF-36 physical score was increased (compared with mostly abstainers) in mostly heavy drinkers (+4.44, P = 0.007); no other variables tested influenced the MOS-SF-36 physical score. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with alcohol dependence, a rapid improvement was seen in the mental dimension of QOL following treatment initiation, which was maintained during 24 months. Improvement was associated with the pattern of alcohol use, becoming close to the general population norm in patients classified as mostly abstainers, improving substantially in mostly moderate drinkers and improving only slightly in mostly heavy drinkers. The physical dimension of QOL was generally in the normal range but was not associated with drinking patterns.

Substitution of (R,S)-methadone by (R)-methadone: Impact on QTc interval.

Methadone is administered as a chiral mixture of (R,S)-methadone. The opioid effect is mainly mediated by (R)-methadone, whereas (S)-methadone blocks the human ether-à-go-go-related gene (hERG) voltage-gated potassium channel more potently, which can cause drug-induced long QT syndrome, leading to potentially lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias. To investigate whether substitution of (R,S)-methadone by (R)-methadone could reduce the corrected QT (QTc) interval, (R,S)-methadone was replaced by (R)-methadone (half-dose) in 39 opioid-dependent patients receiving maintenance treatment for 14 days. (R)-methadone was then replaced by the initial dose of (R,S)-methadone for 14 days (n = 29). Trough (R)-methadone and (S)-methadone plasma levels and electrocardiogram measurements were taken. The Fridericia-corrected QT (QTcF) interval decreased when (R,S)-methadone was replaced by a half-dose of (R)-methadone; the median (interquartile range [IQR]) values were 423 (398-440) milliseconds (ms) and 412 (395-431) ms (P = .06) at days 0 and 14, respectively. Using a univariate mixed-effect linear model, the QTcF value decreased by a mean of -3.9 ms (95% confidence interval [CI], -7.7 to -0.2) per week (P = .04). The QTcF value increased when (R)-methadone was replaced by the initial dose of (R,S)-methadone for 14 days; median (IQR) values were 424 (398-436) ms and 424 (412-443) ms (P = .01) at days 14 and 28, respectively. The univariate model showed that the QTcF value increased by a mean of 4.7 ms (95% CI, 1.3-8.1) per week (P = .006). Substitution of (R,S)-methadone by (R)-methadone reduces the QTc interval value. A safer cardiac profile of (R)-methadone is in agreement with previous in vitro and pharmacogenetic studies. If the present results are confirmed by larger studies, (R)-methadone should be prescribed instead of (R,S)-methadone to reduce the risk of cardiac toxic effects and sudden death.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of angiotensin receptor blockade in healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of angiotensin II receptor antagonists as a therapeutic class. DESIGN: Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling study. METHODS: The data of 14 phase I studies with 10 different drugs were analysed. A common population pharmacokinetic model (two compartments, mixed zero- and first-order absorption, two metabolite compartments) was applied to the 2685 drug and 900 metabolite concentration measurements. A standard nonlinear mixed effect modelling approach was used to estimate the drug-specific parameters and their variabilities. Similarly, a pharmacodynamic model was applied to the 7360 effect measurements, i.e. the decrease of peak blood pressure response to intravenous angiotensin challenge recorded by finger photoplethysmography. The concentration of drug and metabolite in an effect compartment was assumed to translate into receptor blockade [maximum effect (Emax) model with first-order link]. RESULTS: A general pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for angiotensin antagonism in healthy individuals was successfully built up for the 10 drugs studied. Representatives of this class share different pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles. Their effects on blood pressure are dose-dependent, but the time course of the effect varies between the drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The characterisation of PK-PD relationships for these drugs gives the opportunity to optimise therapeutic regimens and to suggest dosage adjustments in specific conditions. Such a model can be used to further refine the use of this class of drugs.

The effects of catechin rich teas and caffeine on energy expenditure and fat oxidation: a meta-analysis.

Different outcomes of the effect of catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation on energy expenditure and fat oxidation have been reported in short-term studies. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted to elucidate whether catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation indeed increase thermogenesis and fat oxidation. First, English-language studies measuring daily energy expenditure and fat oxidation by means of respiration chambers after catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation were identified through PubMed. Six articles encompassing a total of 18 different conditions fitted the inclusion criteria. Second, results were aggregated using random/mixed-effects models and expressed in terms of the mean difference in 24 h energy expenditure and fat oxidation between the treatment and placebo conditions. Finally, the influence of moderators such as BMI and dosage on the results was examined as well. The catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation increased energy expenditure significantly over 24 h (428.0 kJ (4.7%); P < 0.001 and 429.1 kJ (4.8%); P < 0.001, respectively). However, 24 h fat oxidation was only increased by catechin-caffeine mixtures (12.2 g (16.0%); P < 0.02 and 9.5 g (12.4%); P = 0.11, respectively). A dose-response effect on 24 h energy expenditure and fat oxidation occurred with a mean increase of 0.53 kJ mg(-1) (P < 0.01) and 0.02 g mg(-1) (P < 0.05) for catechin-caffeine mixtures and 0.44 kJ mg(-1) (P < 0.001) and 0.01 g mg(-1) (P < 0.05) for caffeine-only. In conclusion, catechin-caffeine mixtures or a caffeine-only supplementation stimulates daily energy expenditure dose-dependently by 0.4-0.5 kJ mg(-1) administered. Compared with placebo, daily fat-oxidation was only significantly increased after catechin-caffeine mixtures ingestion.

Do socioeconomic factors shape weight and obesity trajectories over the transition from midlife to old age? Results from the French GAZEL cohort study

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a contemporary epidemic that does not affect all age groups and sections of society equally. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine socioeconomic differences in trajectories of body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and obesity between the ages of 45 and 65 y. DESIGN: A total of 13,297 men and 4532 women from the French GAZEL (Gaz de France Electricité de France) cohort study reported their height in 1990 and their weight annually over the subsequent 18 y. Changes in BMI and obesity between ages 45 and 49 y, 50 and 54 y, 55 and 59 y, and 60 and 65 y as a function of education and occupational position (at age 35 y) were modeled by using linear mixed models and generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: BMI and obesity rates increased between the ages of 45 and 65 y. In men, BMI was higher in unskilled workers than in managers at age 45 y; this difference in BMI increased from 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) at 45 y to 1.06 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.27) at 65 y. Men with a primary school education compared with those with a high school degree at age 45 y had a 0.75 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.00) higher BMI, and this difference increased to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.03,1.62) at age 65 y. Obesity rates were 3.35% and 7.68% at age 45 y and 9.52% and 18.10% at age 65 y in managers and unskilled workers, respectively; the difference in obesity increased by 4.25% (95% CI: 1.87, 6.52). A similar trend was observed in women. Conclusions: Weight continues to increase in the transition between midlife and old age; this increase is greater in lower socioeconomic groups.

Characterisation of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) larval habitats at ground level and temporal fluctuations of larval abundance in Córdoba, Argentina

The aims of this study were to characterise the ground-level larval habitats of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, to determine the relationships between habitat characteristics and larval abundance and to examine seasonal larval-stage variations in Córdoba city. Every two weeks for two years, 15 larval habitats (natural and artificial water bodies, including shallow wells, drains, retention ponds, canals and ditches) were visited and sampled for larval mosquitoes. Data regarding the water depth, temperature and pH, permanence, the presence of aquatic vegetation and the density of collected mosquito larvae were recorded. Data on the average air temperatures and accumulated precipitation during the 15 days prior to each sampling date were also obtained. Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae were collected throughout the study period and were generally most abundant in the summer season. Generalised linear mixed models indicated the average air temperature and presence of dicotyledonous aquatic vegetation as variables that served as important predictors of larval densities. Additionally, permanent breeding sites supported high larval densities. In Córdoba city and possibly in other highly populated cities at the same latitude with the same environmental conditions, control programs should focus on permanent larval habitats with aquatic vegetation during the early spring, when the Cx. quinquefasciatus population begins to increase.

Population pharmacokinetic study of gentamicin in a large cohort of premature and term neonates.

AIM: This study aims to investigate the clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics in a large cohort of unselected premature and term newborns and to evaluate optimal regimens in this population. METHODS: All gentamicin concentration data, along with clinical and demographic characteristics, were retrieved from medical charts in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit over 5 years within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring programme. Data were described using non-linear mixed-effects regression analysis ( nonmem®). RESULTS: A total of 3039 gentamicin concentrations collected in 994 preterm and 455 term newborns were included in the analysis. A two compartment model best characterized gentamicin disposition. The average parameter estimates, for a median body weight of 2170 g, were clearance (CL) 0.089 l h(-1) (CV 28%), central volume of distribution (Vc ) 0.908 l (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.157 l h(-1) and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp ) 0.560 l. Body weight, gestational age and post-natal age positively influenced CL. Dopamine co-administration had a significant negative effect on CL, whereas the influence of indomethacin and furosemide was not significant. Both body weight and gestational age significantly influenced Vc . Model-based simulations confirmed that, compared with term neonates, preterm infants need higher doses, superior to 4 mg kg(-1) , at extended intervals to achieve adequate concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study conducted in a large cohort of newborns confirms the importance of body weight and gestational age for dosage adjustment. The model will serve to set up dosing recommendations and elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on concentration monitoring.

Modelling of non-linear viscoelastic tissues with bar elements

In this work we develop a viscoelastic bar element that can handle multiple rheo- logical laws with non-linear elastic and non-linear viscous material models. The bar element is built by joining in series an elastic and viscous bar, constraining the middle node position to the bar axis with a reduction method, and stati- cally condensing the internal degrees of freedom. We apply the methodology to the modelling of reversible softening with sti ness recovery both in 2D and 3D, a phenomenology also experimentally observed during stretching cycles on epithelial lung cell monolayers.

She’s a femme fatale: low-density larval development produces good disease vectors

Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.

Prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution and ultrasound measures of fetal growth in the INMA Sabadell cohort

Background: Few studies have used longitudinal ultrasound measurements to assess the effect of traffic-related air pollution on fetal growth.Objective: We examined the relationship between exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and aromatic hydrocarbons [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX)] on fetal growth assessed by 1,692 ultrasound measurements among 562 pregnant women from the Sabadell cohort of the Spanish INMA (Environment and Childhood) study.Methods: We used temporally adjusted land-use regression models to estimate exposures to NO2 and BTEX. We fitted mixed-effects models to estimate longitudinal growth curves for femur length (FL), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC), biparietal diameter (BPD), and estimated fetal weight (EFW). Unconditional and conditional SD scores were calculated at 12, 20, and 32 weeks of gestation. Sensitivity analyses were performed considering time–activity patterns during pregnancy.Results: Exposure to BTEX from early pregnancy was negatively associated with growth in BPD during weeks 20–32. None of the other fetal growth parameters were associated with exposure to air pollution during pregnancy. When considering only women who spent 2 hr/day in nonresidential outdoor locations, effect estimates were stronger and statistically significant for the association between NO2 and growth in HC during weeks 12–20 and growth in AC, BPD, and EFW during weeks 20–32.Conclusions: Our results lend some support to an effect of exposure to traffic-related air pollutants from early pregnancy on fetal growth during mid-pregnancy.