Sampling, WLS, and Mixed Models

Mixed models may be defined with or without reference to sampling, and can be used to predict realized random effects, as when estimating the latent values of study subjects measured with response error. When the model is specified without reference to sampling, a simple mixed model includes two random variables, one stemming from an exchangeable distribution of latent values of study subjects and the other, from the study subjects` response error distributions. Positive probabilities are assigned to both potentially realizable responses and artificial responses that are not potentially realizable, resulting in artificial latent values. In contrast, finite population mixed models represent the two-stage process of sampling subjects and measuring their responses, where positive probabilities are only assigned to potentially realizable responses. A comparison of the estimators over the same potentially realizable responses indicates that the optimal linear mixed model estimator (the usual best linear unbiased predictor, BLUP) is often (but not always) more accurate than the comparable finite population mixed model estimator (the FPMM BLUP). We examine a simple example and provide the basis for a broader discussion of the role of conditioning, sampling, and model assumptions in developing inference.

Hglm: A package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models

We present the hglm package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models. It can be used for linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models with random effects for a variety of links and a variety of distributions for both the outcomes and the random effects. Fixed effects can also be fitted in the dispersion part of the model.

Genetic heterogeneity of residual variance : estimation of variance components using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results: We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM), where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions: We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.

Programação estocástica para fundos de pensão

Nesta dissertação discutiremos modelos e métodos de soluções de programação estocástica para resolver problemas de ALM em fundos de pensão. Apresentaremos o modelo de (Drijver et al.), baseado na programação estocástica multiestágios inteira-mista. Um estudo de caso para um problema de ALM será apresentado usando simulação de cenários.

Artificial neural networks and clustering techniques applied in the reconfiguration of distribution systems

One objective of the feeder reconfiguration problem in distribution systems is to minimize the power losses for a specific load. For this problem, mathematical modeling is a nonlinear mixed integer problem that is generally hard to solve. This paper proposes an algorithm based on artificial neural network theory. In this context, clustering techniques to determine the best training set for a single neural network with generalization ability are also presented. The proposed methodology was employed for solving two electrical systems and presented good results. Moreover, the methodology can be employed for large-scale systems in real-time environment.

Multistage and coordinated planning of the expansion of transmission systems

In this paper, an efficient genetic algorithm (GA) is presented to solve the problem of multistage and coordinated transmission expansion planning. This is a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem, difficult for systems of medium and large size and high complexity. The GA presented has a set of specialized genetic operators and an efficient form of generation of the initial population that finds high quality suboptimal topologies for large size and high complexity systems. In these systems, multistage and coordinated planning present a lower investment than static planning. Tests results are shown in one medium complexity system and one large size high complexity system.

Optimised placement of control and protective devices in electric distribution systems through reactive tabu search algorithm

Optimised placement of control and protective devices in distribution networks allows for a better operation and improvement of the reliability indices of the system. Control devices (used to reconfigure the feeders) are placed in distribution networks to obtain an optimal operation strategy to facilitate power supply restoration in the case of a contingency. Protective devices (used to isolate faults) are placed in distribution systems to improve the reliability and continuity of the power supply, significantly reducing the impacts that a fault can have in terms of customer outages, and the time needed for fault location and system restoration. This paper presents a novel technique to optimally place both control and protective devices in the same optimisation process on radial distribution feeders. The problem is modelled through mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) with real and binary variables. The reactive tabu search algorithm (RTS) is proposed to solve this problem. Results and optimised strategies for placing control and protective devices considering a practical feeder are presented. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bilevel Approach to Transmission Expansion Planning Within a Market Environment

We present a bilevel model for transmission expansion planning within a market environment, where producers and consumers trade freely electric energy through a pool. The target of the transmission planner, modeled through the upper-level problem, is to minimize network investment cost while facilitating energy trading. This upper-level problem is constrained by a collection of lower-level market clearing problems representing pool trading, and whose individual objective functions correspond to social welfare. Using the duality theory the proposed bilevel model is recast as a mixed-integer linear programming problem, which is solvable using branch-and-cut solvers. Detailed results from an illustrative example and a case study are presented and discussed. Finally, some relevant conclusions are drawn.

Primary power distribution systems planning taking into account reliability, operation and expansion costs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Planejamento e controle da produção de cilindros para laminação: um estudo de caso quantitativo

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo de otimização-simulação aplicado em um estudo de caso real no setor de cilindros para laminação de uma siderúrgica, buscando melhorar o gerenciamento da área/equipamento gargalo da linha de produção. A simulação atuou em conjunto com um modelo de otimização da programação linear inteira (PLI) para melhorar o atendimento de prazo junto aos clientes em uma produção não seriada. Como resultado deste procedimento combinado da PLI e simulação, o processo produtivo foi otimizado e as filas de espera e o lead-time foram reduzidos, melhorando o atendimento aos clientes.

Bayesian longitudinal data analysis with mixed models and thick-tailed distributions using MCMC

Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.

Optimal capacitor placement in radial distribution networks

The capacitor placement (replacement) problem for radial distribution networks determines capacitor types, sizes, locations and control schemes. Optimal capacitor placement is a hard combinatorial problem that can be formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear program. Since this is a NP complete problem (Non Polynomial time) the solution approach uses a combinatorial search algorithm. The paper proposes a hybrid method drawn upon the Tabu Search approach, extended with features taken from other combinatorial approaches such as genetic algorithms and simulated annealing, and from practical heuristic approaches. The proposed method has been tested in a range of networks available in the literature with superior results regarding both quality and cost of solutions.

Relax and fix heuristics to solve one-stage one-machine lot-scheduling models for small-scale soft drink plants

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Optimized Allocation of Control and Protective Devices in Electric Distribution Systems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An implementation of modified scatter search algorithm to transmission expansion planning

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)