Deriving acceptable biological catch from the overfishing limit: implications for assessment models

The recently revised Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires that U.S. fishery management councils avoid overfishing by setting annual catch limits (ACLs) not exceeding recommendations of the councils’ scientific advisers. To meet that requirement, the scientific advisers will need to know the overfishing limit (OFL) estimated in each stock assessment, with OFL being the catch available from applying the limit fishing mortality rate to current or projected stock biomass. The advisers then will derive ‘‘acceptable biological catch’’ (ABC) from OFL by reducing OFL to allow for scientific uncertainty, and ABC becomes their recommendation to the council. We suggest methodology based on simple probability theory by which scientific advisers can compute ABC from OFL and the statistical distribution of OFL as estimated by a stock assessment. Our method includes approximations to the distribution of OFL if it is not known from the assessment; however, we find it preferable to have the assessment model estimate the distribution of OFL directly. Probability-based methods such as this one provide well-defined approaches to setting ABC and may be helpful to scientific advisers as they translate the new legal requirement into concrete advice.

Projective Limit Random Probabilities on Polish Spaces

A pivotal problem in Bayesian nonparametrics is the construction of prior distributions on the space M(V) of probability measures on a given domain V. In principle, such distributions on the infinite-dimensional space M(V) can be constructed from their finite-dimensional marginals---the most prominent example being the construction of the Dirichlet process from finite-dimensional Dirichlet distributions. This approach is both intuitive and applicable to the construction of arbitrary distributions on M(V), but also hamstrung by a number of technical difficulties. We show how these difficulties can be resolved if the domain V is a Polish topological space, and give a representation theorem directly applicable to the construction of any probability distribution on M(V) whose first moment measure is well-defined. The proof draws on a projective limit theorem of Bochner, and on properties of set functions on Polish spaces to establish countable additivity of the resulting random probabilities.

Limit of drug residues in aquatic products (NY5071-2002)

Weimin, ZOU, lexian YANG, lan JIANG, Shuqin WU, Qi YI, Jianli WU

Gas properties as a limit to gas turbine performance

Although increasing the turbine inlet temperature has traditionally proved the surest way to increase cycle efficiency, recent work suggests that the performance of future gas turbines may be limited by increased cooling flows and losses. Another limiting scenario concerns the effect on cycle performance of real gas properties at high temperatures. Cycle calculations of uncooled gas turbines show that when gas properties are modelled accurately, the variation of cycle efficiency with turbine inlet temperature at constant pressure ratio exhibits a maximum at temperatures well below the stoichiometric limit. Furthermore, the temperature at the maximum decreases with increasing compressor and turbine polytropic efficiency. This behaviour is examined in the context of a two-component model of the working fluid. The dominant influences come from the change of composition of the combustion products with varying air/fuel ratio (particularly the contribution from the water vapour) together with the temperature variation of the specific heat capacity of air. There are implications for future industrial development programmes, particularly in the context of advanced mixed gas-steam cycles.

The influence of repeated loading, residual stresses and shakedown on the behaviour of tribological contacts

Most tribological pairs carry their service load not just once but for a very large number of repeated cycles. During the early stages of this life, protective residual stresses may be developed in the near surface layers which enable loads which are of sufficient magnitude to cause initial plastic deformation to be accommodated purely elastically in the longer term. This is an example of the phenomenon of 'shakedown' and when its effects are incorporated into the design and operation schedule of machine components this process can lead to significant increases in specific loading duties or improvements in material utilization. Although the underlying principles can be demonstrated by reference to relatively simple stress systems, when a moving Hertzian pressure distribution in considered, which is the form of loading applicable to many contact problems, the situation is more complex. In the absence of exact solutions, bounding theorems, adopted from the theory of plasticity, can be used to generate appropriate load or shakedown limits so that shakedown maps can be drawn which delineate the boundaries between potentially safe and unsafe operating conditions. When the operating point of the contact lies outside the shakedown limit there will be an increment of plastic strain with each application of the load - these can accumulate leading eventually to either component failure or the loss of material by wear. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.