Crescimento do consumo e a estrutura a termo de taxa de juros: um estudo voltado para o caso brasileiro

Tendo por base o trabalho realizado por Hyde e Sherif (2010) com dados do mercado inglês, foi desenvolvido estudo com o objetivo de avaliar a capacidade do spread de curto e longo prazo da taxa de juros de funcionar como indicador do crescimento futuro do consumo no Brasil. Tanto Hyde e Sherif (2010) como outros estudos realizados em países desenvolvidos indicaram relação positiva entre o spread de juros de curto e longo prazo e o crescimento do consumo. Entretanto, as análises empíricas realizadas neste estudo para o caso brasileiro, apresentaram resultados divergentes do esperado pela teoria, indicando relação negativa entre o spread de juros e o crescimento do consumo. Em algumas análises, os estudos não indicaram relação entre as variáveis. Foram discutidas possíveis razões para estes resultados contraintuitivos, tais como tamanho reduzido da amostra, nível da taxa de juros no Brasil e liquidez do mercado futuro de juros. Adicionalmente foram analisados os modelos teóricos C-CAPM (Consumption-based asset pricing model) e o modelo de consumo habitual desenvolvido por Campbell e Cochrane (1999) com a adaptação proposta por Wachter (2006). Os resultados encontrados no modelo C-CAPM divergiram do esperado, já que a estimativa do coeficiente relativo de aversão ao risco apresentou sinal negativo. Por outro lado, os resultados obtidos no modelo de Wachter (2006) ficaram em linha com o esperado na teoria, tanto em relação à significância dos parâmetros como aos respectivos sinais e magnitudes.

Os 3P's da produção cultural: Brasil de Tuhu da concepção do projeto à promoção de uma experiência cultural

Esta pesquisa trata da experiência de realização de um projeto cultural, a partir da análise da dinâmica dos 3P´s da produção cultural. O trabalho apresenta um relato de bastidores desde o planejamento do projeto à sua avaliação, trazendo uma reflexão crítica acerca do fazer da produção cultural e explora questões sobre acesso e cidadania cultural. O projeto analisado foi patrocinado através da Lei Federal de Incentivo à Cultura (Lei Rouanet). O jogo dinâmico do mercado cultural aqui exposto apresenta uma forma de interação entre Proponente, Patrocinador e Público que serve de referência para a compreensão da trajetória de um projeto cultural desde sua criação, passando por sua implementação, até sua finalização. Outro aspecto aqui explorado, apesar de ainda pouco desenvolvido no mercado, trata do estabelecimento de bases para a avaliação de resultados de projetos sócio-culturais.

Análise comparativa da eficiência operacional entre bancos comerciais operando no Brasil e em economias desenvolvidas, utilizando o modelo não paramétrico de data envelopment analysis

O presente trabalho visa comparar, através do modelo de Data Envelopment Analysis orientado a inputs, a eficiência dos bancos comerciais que atuam em economias desenvolvidas dos países do G10 com a eficiência dos bancos comerciais que atuam no mercado brasileiro. Primeiramente, os bancos são comparados utilizando-se um modelo ‘simples’, que considera somente os resultados das operações de cada banco e não contempla as características econômicas e regulatórias de cada mercado. Na sequência, um modelo ‘completo’ é introduzido, incorporando as características do ambiente de negócios de cada país, além dos resultados de cada banco. Os resultados obtidos evidenciam que as variáveis ambientais exercem grande influência na eficiência da indústria bancária. Os bancos que atuam no Brasil, de forma geral, mostraram-se mais eficientes do que os bancos que atuam nas economias mais desenvolvidas, quando consideramos o impacto das variáveis ambientais na eficiência das instituições.

Brazil's election: as polarized as can be

What you see above is a graphic representation of something anyone who followed the campaign that led to the re-election of Dilma Rousseff as Brazil’s president on October 26 already knows: the election was the most polarised in the country’s history. Brasil was split down the middle, not only numerically (Dilma got 52 per cent, Aécio Neves 48) and geographically (Dilma won in the less developed north, Aécio in the more prosperous south). The twitterspere, too, was divided into two camps. Not only that; they hardly talked to each other at all.

The determinantss of foreign direct investment distribution among the Brazilian states

O Investimento Estrangeiro Direto (IED) tem desempenhado um papel importante no esforço do Brasil para tornar-se uma economia orientada para o mercado. De 1995 a 2012 o Brasil recebeu $ 511.5 bilhões de dólares em IED. Em 2012, o Brasil foi o segundo país em desenvolvimento que mais recebeu IED e o quarto no mundo (UNCTAD).Devido à concentração geográfica, os estados brasileiros que são consideravelmente menos desenvolvidos e mais pobres, são aqueles que mais precisam de investimentos e que no entanto, não têm sido receptores relevantes de IED. Em 2010, os estados com os maiores estoques de IED foram São Paulo, com 42,3 por cento do total ($ 99,9 bilhões de dólares), Rio de Janeiro com 13,3 por cento ($ 31,4 bilhões de dólares) e Minas Gerais com 10,6 por cento do total ($ 25,1 bilhões de dólares). Como pode ser observado, apenas três dos vinte e sete estados brasileiros receberam cerca de 66 por cento do total de IED destinado ao Brasil.Dada tal diferenciação na distribuição de IED entre os estados brasileiros, o presente estudo busca explicar se o benefício tributário também é determinante para o fluxo de IED, além das demais variáveis já consideradas como determinantes em outros estudos. Dada a limitação de dados, realizamos duas análises econométricas com dados em painel: 1. Usando seis variáveis chaves: tamanho do mercado consumidor, a qualidade da mão de obra, infraestrutura, custo da mão de obra, carga tributária e benefício tributário (por macro regiões), nos anos de 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010; 2. Usando cinco variáveis: as mesmas do primeiro modelo, excluindo o custo da mão de obra (por falta de dados) e utilizando os dados de benefício tributário por estado, nos anos de 2010, 2011 e 2012.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

O papel da tecnologia da informação e comunicação na inclusão financeira da população ribeirinha da Ilha de Marajó: o caso Agência Barco

O desafio de ofertar infraestrutura de serviços públicos nas regiões menos desenvolvidas do Brasil, geralmente mais afastadas dos grandes centros urbanos, mobiliza setores da sociedade na busca de abordagens novas e criativas que possam diminuir as grandes disparidades inter-regionais. Uma das carências vivenciadas por parte da população brasileira é a falta de acesso ao sistema financeiro, comprometendo a capacidade de plena participação dessas pessoas na economia, dificultando a geração e acúmulo de riqueza, situação essa presente na Ilha de Marajó, no estado do Pará, cuja maioria de seus dezesseis municípios apresenta Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) baixo ou muito baixo. Para mudar essa realidade, uma iniciativa inovadora é a agência bancária itinerante instalada em barco, para atendimento a populações ribeirinhas de regiões com vasta extensão territorial, baixa densidade demográfica, dificuldades de transporte e limitações na oferta de tecnologia da informação e comunicação (TIC). Assim, essa pesquisa, com propósito exploratório e descritivo, tem como objetivo principal identificar, sob o ponto de vista das TIC, como os indicadores de inclusão financeira são influenciados pela atuação da Agência Barco na Ilha de Marajó. Além do estudo teórico, foi realizada investigação empírica, por meio de observação direta e entrevistas semiestruturadas com clientes e funcionários da Agência Barco, realizadas ao longo de quatro dias, em duas cidades da Ilha de Marajó. Para análise dos dados, foram aplicadas técnicas de análise de conteúdo às entrevistas, com objetivo de identificar a presença de elementos de inclusão financeira, transpondo os resultados para um modelo heurístico de infoinclusão dinâmica (2iD), o qual foi adaptado para contemplar constructos de inclusão financeira. O resultado da pesquisa demonstra que a Agência Barco consegue suprir as necessidades de acesso a serviços e produtos financeiros pela população da Ilha de Marajó, ao mesmo tempo em que se identifica oportunidades para ampliação de aspectos relacionados à educação financeira, possibilitando fortalecer os componentes dinâmicos do processo de inclusão financeira, com aumento da conscientização e consequente aumento da demanda por serviços e produtos financeiros.

Rent-sharing no setor industrial brasileiro: uma análise empírica para o período de 2002 – 2012

Este trabalho visa analisar a existência de rent-sharing no setor industrial brasileiro entre os anos de 2002 e 2012. Este tema já foi amplamente abordado pela literatura internacional, onde é possível identificar evidências que corroboram a existência de rent-sharing nas economias desenvolvidas. Porém, para a economia brasileira este tema ainda foi pouco explorado e não temos conhecimento de estudos empíricos realizados para os anos mais recentes. A fim de examinar empiricamente a relação entre os lucros das firmas e a remuneração de seus trabalhadores, foram estimados dois modelos. Primeiramente, um modelo em cross section, que tem como unidade de observação o trabalhador, utilizando uma base de dados estruturada através do cruzamento da RAIS e da PIA. Também foi analisado se esta correlação ocorre de forma homogênea entre os níveis de qualificação dos trabalhadores. Em seguida, foi realizada a estimativa em painel dinâmico, cujo nível de agregação é o setor industrial, prevendo também a correção para o clássico problema de endogeneidade entre os lucros das firmas e os salários dos trabalhadores por meio de variáveis instrumentais. Os resultados indicam que um aumento no nível de rentabilidade das firmas gera, no longo prazo, uma elevação dos salários pagos naquele setor, porém este efeito é de baixa magnitude.

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.

Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil

BORGES,D. M. L.et al. Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil.Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, v.25,n.2, p.321-327, fev, 2009

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and social factors in Brazil

RODRIGUES, Katamara et al. Prevalence of orofacial clefts and social factors in Brazil. Brazilian oral research, v.23, n. 1, p. 38-42, 2009.Disponivel em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

Correlação entre a infecção genital pelo vírus do papiloma humano, a resposta imune e os achados colpocitológicos em mulheres grávidas e não grávidas

The genital HPV infection is very common between men and women worldwide, affecting particularly young women, constituting a serious public health problem in less developed regions, favored by the poor living conditions of population. The cytology and colposcopy have notorious importance in the diagnosis of precursor lesions of cervical cancer and therefore its prevention. However, even with such diagnostic tools, the number of women who develop cervical cancer is still high. This study aims to assess the prevalence of genital tract infection by HPV in pregnant and nonpregnant women, evaluating the profile of the immune response presented by the women of these two groups in order to establish correlations among profile of immune response, presence of virus and occurrence of lesions of the uterine cervix. We analyzed specimens obtained from the cervix of 221 patients, 91 pregnant and 130 non-pregnant, aged 14-72 years. The women were subjected to colposcopic and cytologic evaluation detect possible changes in the cervix and then samples were collected in order to perform HPV detection by PCR and real-time PCR for detection of mRNA of pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. In the present study, the overall prevalence of HPV genital infection was 28.1%; of which 31.9% were pregnant patients and 25.4% in non-pregnant women. Young women under 30 years and those with low educational level education showed a higher risk of HPV infection. Colposcopy showed better correlation with detection of HPV DNA by PCR, when compared to cytology. Generally, HPV infected patients, pregnant or not, exhibited reduced mRNA expression of both pro-inflammatory (IFN-γ, TNF-α) and anti-inflammatory (IL -10) cytokines, when compared to patients not infected by HPV. Nonpregnant patients infected presented increase mRNA expression of IL-17 in patients without injury, whereas those with lesion showed higher mRNA expression of TGF-β. Pregnant women without injury infected exhibited increased mRNA expression of TGF-β. There was no difference in HPV prevalence between pregnant and nonpregnant women. There was a reduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines, except IL-17, in all women infected by HPV. Moreover, we observed an increase of TGF-β in HPV-infected women who are pregnant or not. The results suggest that, in women in this study, HPV infection promoted changes in the profile of cytokines necessary for activation of effective immune response, possibly favoring viral persistence

Desenvolvimento territorial no Rio Grande do Norte: uma identificação de clusters rurais

The general objective of this study is the identification of rural spaces in Rio Grande do Norte through a territorial approach. It looks if there is spatial correlations between municipalities that influence and are influenced by the rural environment, allowing the identification of clusters. To accomplish this objective it`s used, in the methodology, the factor analysis of principal components to achieve the indicators of rurality and territorial development, that deal with four dimensions of analysis: environmental, political-institutional, economical and spatial. Moreover, to identify the spatial correlations structure between municipalities it used the Moran index to both rurality and territorial development, leading to clustering identification. The results show that the rurality is present in most of Rio Grande do Norte municipalities, except in cases like Mossoró, Pau dos Ferros, Caicó and Natal, where can be regional dynamic poles. It is also verified that the more rural municipalities tend to be less developed, according to the territorial development index, and have less correlations with neighboring municipalities

Aspectos morfo-tectônicos nos platôs de Portalegre, Martins e Santana/RN

A morpho-structural analysis was performed in the uplifted siliciclastic deposits of the Serra do Martins Formation along the Portalegre, Martins and Santana plateaux, in the southeastern and central regions of Rio Grande do Norte State. Due to the lack of biostratigraphic records, this formation has a disputable age.The adopted approach was based on the analysis of the drainage patterns and in the recognition of topographic surfaces and regional structures, subjected to neotectonic deformation and rejuvenation the present stress field. These events are recorded in the lineament arrays and as anomalous features of the landscape, such as the uplifted plateaux.The morpho-sculptural evolution of the studied blocks is expressed as erosive and accumulative processes. The former ones include erosional scarpments, cuestas and amphitheaters as the most characteristic features, while debris slopes represent acumulative examples. Such elements attest to the recent disequilibrium of the plateaux, and the absence of well developed alluvium terraces suggest an accelerated uplift process. The directions of the linear features observed in remote sensing products evidence the control of the basement structural trends, inherited from the pre-Cenozoic evolution. The NNE-SSW direction controls the main erosional features of the plateaux, while the N-S direction is a major drainage control, being also recognized in the Potiguar Basin. An E-W trend occurs as a less developed direction, reflecting either a system of mesozoic basic dykes or precambrian brittle structures. As regards to the drainage arrays, an arborescent, varying to a roughly N-S rectangular pattern, was identified in the Portalegre-Martins block. The Santana plateau displays rectilinear (northern border) and dendritic arborescent (southern border) patterns. In the sedimentary cover, the drainage pattern varies from rectangular to angular, reflecting inheritance from the crystaline basement. The most significative directions, N, NE and NW, mark the erosional fronts of the plateaux. Drainage anomalies, characterized by elbows or paralell confluencies, reinforce the arguments mentioned above. The data sets evidence the relationships between endogenous (lithology, structures) and exogenous features as the main controls of terrain dissecation, associated to vertical (epirogenesis) movements and horizontal tectonics. A final discussion addresses the relationships of the Serra do Martins Formation with the sedimentary record of Potiguar Basin, trying to establish chronostratigraphic links with the main evolutionary steps of this part of the Borborema Province, and possible mechanisms involved in the uplift of the plateaux and other stratigraphic units in the region

A reafirmação do bairro:um estudo geo-histórico do bairro do Alecrim na cidade de Natal-RN

By the end of the 21st Century, economy globalization trends to show a velocity process through which market being expanded characterized by an intense going on of the internationalization of finance, after that marginalizing the periphery of the social spaces. It is clear to see that this process occurred in those less developed countries happens in an accentuated way just because income distribution that is so regressive and also because the insufficient enclosing of the social programs, we find this situation in a big part of Brazilian cities. The marginalizing social economical process observed in Natal, a city located in the east coast part of Northeast region in Brazil and that owns a population upper to 778 thousand in habitants is nearly linked to the extension of goods and services commerce. The installation of new urban activities in the city pointed out tourist activity as the greater impulsive thing in the phenomenon promotion, most of them aiming to promote Natal to the national and international scenery. It privilege strongly in the South zone with economical implementations such as shopping s centers, supermarkets, and home buildings condominiums leading to a loss of functionality of some traditional district located in central areas of the city. Notwithstanding, some spaces, for instance Alecrim district officially created in 1911, has notably resisted to the expansion of the urban process pointed out in Natal in the last years. So that this put Alecrim District as a district with originally characteristics reaffirmed along the historical process form old times. The predominance of some residential characteristics such as the incidence of some villages and a concentration of a big and confuse popular commerce distributed along streets puts Alecrim District as a resistant space in Natal. The same way analyze Alecrim District under the prism of Historic Geography because we understand this way it accomplishes a fundamental role in the theoretical methodological development of our work, just when we analyze the time as a variant in our object of study. It is still inside this theoretical field that we carry out a brief reviewing about quarter/district definition, under the optic from several registered and scientific resources taken into account along this work, because we understand that it was necessary to think this important spatial unit especially to know exactly what we are referring to as a district and so we can reaffirm Alecrim as an important and traditional district to Natal and it has been resisting to spatial transformation verified in the last years in Natal city. To give support to our reflection we used methodological tools related to inhabitants lifestyles knowledge and also the study of Alecrim District as a space that promote a certain centrality in Natal as some indicators to keep original characteristics in the district in Natal