Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

Lay-up optimization of composite plates to delay mode-jump instabilities

Experimental and numerical studies have shown that the occurrence of abrupt secondary instabilities, or mode-jumps, in a postbuckling stiffened composite panel may initiate structural failure. This study presents an optimisation methodology, using a genetic algorithm and finite element analysis for the lay-up optimisation of postbuckling composite plates to delay the onset of mode-jump instabilities. A simple and novel approach for detecting modejumps is proposed, based on the RMS value of out-of-plane pseudo-velocities at a number of locations distributed over the postbuckling structure

Supernatural Beliefs, Unconscious Threat and Judgment Bias in Tibetan Buddhists

Individuals who have been subtly reminded of death display heightened in-group favouritism, or “worldview defense.” Terror management theory argues (i) that death cues engender worldview defense via psychological mechanisms specifically evolved to suppress death anxiety, and (ii) that the core function of religiosity is to suppress death anxiety. Thus, terror management theory predicts that extremely religious individuals will not evince worldview defense. Here, two studies are presented in support of an alternative perspective. According to the unconscious vigilance hypothesis, subtly processed threats (which need not pertain to death) heighten sensitivity to affectively valenced stimuli (which need not pertain to cultural attitudes). From this perspective, religiosity mitigates the influence of mortality-salience only insofar as afterlife doctrines reduce the perceived threat posed by death. Tibetan Buddhism portrays death as a perilous gateway to rebirth rather than an end to suffering; faith in this doctrine should therefore not be expected to nullify mortality-salience effects. In Study 1, devout Tibetan Buddhists who were subtly reminded of death produced exaggerated aesthetic ratings unrelated to cultural worldviews. In Study 2, devout Tibetan Buddhists produced worldview defense following subliminal exposure to non-death cues of threat. The results demonstrate both the domain-generality of the process underlying worldview defense and the importance of religious doctrinal content in moderating mortality-salience effects.

Differences in cancer awareness and beliefs between Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK (the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership):Do they contribute to differences in cancer survival?

Background:There are wide international differences in 1-year cancer survival. The UK and Denmark perform poorly compared with other high-income countries with similar health care systems: Australia, Canada and Sweden have good cancer survival rates, Norway intermediate survival rates. The objective of this study was to examine the pattern of differences in cancer awareness and beliefs across these countries to identify where these might contribute to the pattern of survival.Methods:We carried out a population-based telephone interview survey of 19 079 men and women aged =50 years in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure.Results:Awareness that the risk of cancer increased with age was lower in the UK (14%), Canada (13%) and Australia (16%) but was higher in Denmark (25%), Norway (29%) and Sweden (38%). Symptom awareness was no lower in the UK and Denmark than other countries. Perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation were highest in the UK, in particular being worried about wasting the doctor's time (UK 34%; Canada 21%; Australia 14%; Denmark 12%; Norway 11%; Sweden 9%).Conclusion:The UK had low awareness of age-related risk and the highest perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation, but symptom awareness in the UK did not differ from other countries. Denmark had higher awareness of age-related risk and few perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation. This suggests that other factors must be involved in explaining Denmark's poor survival rates. In the UK, interventions that address barriers to prompt presentation in primary care should be developed and evaluated. © 2013 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved.

Using evidence in policy: The importance of mediating beliefs and practices

This article argues that to understand the use of evidence in policy, we need to examine how meanings and practices in the civil service shape what is accepted as knowledge, and how differences between the beliefs and values of the academy and the polity can impede the flow and transfer of knowledge. It considers the importance of social context and shared meanings in legitimating knowledge. Who counts as legitimate knowledge providers has expanded and here the role of stakeholder groups and experiential knowledge is of particular interest. How hierarchy, anonymity, and generalist knowledge within the civil service mediate the use of evidence in policy is examined. The difference in values and ideology of the civil service and the academy has implications for how academic research is interpreted and used to formulate policy and for its position in knowledge power struggles. There are particular issues about the social science nature of evidence to inform rural policy being mediated in a government department more used to dealing with natural science knowledge. This article is based on participant observation carried out in a UK Department of Agriculture and Rural Development. © 2013 The Author. Sociologia Ruralis © 2013 European Society for Rural Sociology.

Evaluation of a Psychoeducational intervention for patients with Advanced Cancer who have Cachexia and their lay Carers (EPACaCC): study protocol

Aim: To evaluate a psychoeducational intervention for patients with advanced cancer who have cachexia and their lay carers.

Background: Cachexia is a frequent and devastating syndrome of advanced cancer. It has an impact on patients biologically, psychologically and socially and has profound impact on their lay carers. Prior research has predominately focused on the biological components of cachexia and associated potential treatment modalities. At present, there is no standardized supportive healthcare intervention in current practice that targets the psychosocial impact of this syndrome.

Design: A pragmatic multicentre randomized controlled trial.

Methods: Patient/carer dyads (n = 200) will be recruited into a randomized controlled trial of a DVD intervention for cachexia management. The sample will be recruited from two urban hospices in the UK. The primary outcome measure will be the General Health Questionnaire-12. Additional questionnaires focusing on distress, readiness to give care and coping skills will be used as secondary outcome measures. In addition, lay carers in the intervention group will be asked to participate in semi-structured interviews following the death of their loved one. Both Office for Research Ethics Committee approval and local governance approval at both hospices have been obtained as of February 2013.

Discussion: This is the first time that a psychoeducational DVD has been tested in a randomized controlled trial in this population. Dissemination of findings will make a significant contribution to international knowledge and understanding in this area. Findings will inform education, practice and policy.

Modelling lay-up automation and production rate interaction on the cost of large stiffened panel components

This paper presents an integrated design and costing method for large stiffened panels for the purpose of investigating the influence and interaction of lay-up technology and production rate on manufacturing cost. A series of wing cover panels (≈586kg, 19·9m2) have been sized with realistic requirements considering manual and automated lay-up routes. The integrated method has enabled the quantification of component unit cost sensitivity to changes in annual production rate and employed equipment maximum deposition rate. Moreover the results demonstrate the interconnected relationship between lay-up process and panel design, and unit cost. The optimum unit cost solution when using automated lay-up is a combination of the minimum deposition rate and minimum number of lay-up machines to meet the required production rate. However, the location of the optimum unit cost, at the boundaries between the number of lay-up machines required, can make unit cost very sensitive to small changes in component design, production rate, and equipment maximum deposition rate. - See more at: http://aerosociety.com/News/Publications/Aero-Journal/Online/1941/Modelling-layup-automation-and-production-rate-interaction-on-the-cost-of-large-stiffened-panel-components#sthash.0fLuu9iG.dpuf

Exploring lay views on physical activity and their implications for public health policy. A case study from East Belfast

It is now recognised that inactive lifestyles underpin much of the disease burden evident in the richer nations of the world. Indeed, the WHO has identified physical inactivity as a 'global public health problem' and has established minimum physical activity (PA) targets for people at different stages of the life-course. Yet, according to WHO, just under 1/3 of working age adults across the globe meet those targets and it is not at all clear how the disjunction between the recommendations of policy makers and the behaviour of ordinary people might be surmounted. Using an opportunity to examine the impact of an urban regeneration project on community residents in East Belfast (Northern Ireland) this paper examines the views of some 113 people on how to increase rates of PA in an area of multiple deprivation. The results of the analysis suggest that lay people rarely consider PA as a discrete issue, or one that centres on individuals and their motivation, but rather as one component in a complex web of concerns, processes and events that include such things as the actions of neighbours and relatives, material and political environments, vandalism, violence, and the weather. We explore and unravel the nature of those concerns using novel methods of content analysis that generate 'issue webs'. Particular attention is paid to the ways in which lay people conceptualize 'activity' and to the manner in which they point to ways of encouraging activity that are rooted in everyday life rather than in the corpocentric, agent-centred and often sport dominated strategies favoured by local policy makers. Our results support those who argue that interventions to increase rates of PA need to move beyond behavioural approaches that focus on individuals and consider the social, political and material contexts in which 'activity' occurs.

Adherence to treatment in children and adolescents with cystic fibrosis: a cross-sectional, multi-method study investigating the influence of beliefs about treatment and parental depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND: Adherence to treatment is often reported to be low in children with cystic fibrosis. Adherence in cystic fibrosis is an important research area and more research is needed to better understand family barriers to adherence in order for clinicians to provide appropriate intervention. The aim of this study was to evaluate adherence to enzyme supplements, vitamins and chest physiotherapy in children with cystic fibrosis and to determine if any modifiable risk factors are associated with adherence.

METHODS: A sample of 100 children (≤18 years) with cystic fibrosis (44 male; median [range] 10.1 [0.2-18.6] years) and their parents were recruited to the study from the Northern Ireland Paediatric Cystic Fibrosis Centre. Adherence to enzyme supplements, vitamins and chest physiotherapy was assessed using a multi-method approach including; Medication Adherence Report Scale, pharmacy prescription refill data and general practitioner prescription issue data. Beliefs about treatments were assessed using refined versions of the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire-specific. Parental depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale.

RESULTS: Using the multi-method approach 72% of children were classified as low-adherers to enzyme supplements, 59% low-adherers to vitamins and 49% low-adherers to chest physiotherapy. Variations in adherence were observed between measurement methods, treatments and respondents. Parental necessity beliefs and child age were significant independent predictors of child adherence to enzyme supplements and chest physiotherapy, but parental depressive symptoms were not found to be predictive of adherence.

CONCLUSIONS: Child age and parental beliefs about treatments should be taken into account by clinicians when addressing adherence at routine clinic appointments. Low adherence is more likely to occur in older children, whereas, better adherence to cystic fibrosis therapies is more likely in children whose parents strongly believe the treatments are necessary. The necessity of treatments should be reinforced regularly to both parents and children.