Combinatorial and Robust Optimisation Models and Algorithms for Railway Applications

This thesis deals with an investigation of combinatorial and robust optimisation models to solve railway problems. Railway applications represent a challenging area for operations research. In fact, most problems in this context can be modelled as combinatorial optimisation problems, in which the number of feasible solutions is finite. Yet, despite the astonishing success in the field of combinatorial optimisation, the current state of algorithmic research faces severe difficulties with highly-complex and data-intensive applications such as those dealing with optimisation issues in large-scale transportation networks. One of the main issues concerns imperfect information. The idea of Robust Optimisation, as a way to represent and handle mathematically systems with not precisely known data, dates back to 1970s. Unfortunately, none of those techniques proved to be successfully applicable in one of the most complex and largest in scale (transportation) settings: that of railway systems. Railway optimisation deals with planning and scheduling problems over several time horizons. Disturbances are inevitable and severely affect the planning process. Here we focus on two compelling aspects of planning: robust planning and online (real-time) planning.

Exploring physical processes related to past climate proxies: lake sediments and stable water isotopes

Proxy data are essential for the investigation of climate variability on time scales larger than the historical meteorological observation period. The potential value of a proxy depends on our ability to understand and quantify the physical processes that relate the corresponding climate parameter and the signal in the proxy archive. These processes can be explored under present-day conditions. In this thesis, both statistical and physical models are applied for their analysis, focusing on two specific types of proxies, lake sediment data and stable water isotopes.rnIn the first part of this work, the basis is established for statistically calibrating new proxies from lake sediments in western Germany. A comprehensive meteorological and hydrological data set is compiled and statistically analyzed. In this way, meteorological times series are identified that can be applied for the calibration of various climate proxies. A particular focus is laid on the investigation of extreme weather events, which have rarely been the objective of paleoclimate reconstructions so far. Subsequently, a concrete example of a proxy calibration is presented. Maxima in the quartz grain concentration from a lake sediment core are compared to recent windstorms. The latter are identified from the meteorological data with the help of a newly developed windstorm index, combining local measurements and reanalysis data. The statistical significance of the correlation between extreme windstorms and signals in the sediment is verified with the help of a Monte Carlo method. This correlation is fundamental for employing lake sediment data as a new proxy to reconstruct windstorm records of the geological past.rnThe second part of this thesis deals with the analysis and simulation of stable water isotopes in atmospheric vapor on daily time scales. In this way, a better understanding of the physical processes determining these isotope ratios can be obtained, which is an important prerequisite for the interpretation of isotope data from ice cores and the reconstruction of past temperature. In particular, the focus here is on the deuterium excess and its relation to the environmental conditions during evaporation of water from the ocean. As a basis for the diagnostic analysis and for evaluating the simulations, isotope measurements from Rehovot (Israel) are used, provided by the Weizmann Institute of Science. First, a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is employed in order to establish quantitative linkages between the measurements and the evaporation conditions of the vapor (and thus to calibrate the isotope signal). A strong negative correlation between relative humidity in the source regions and measured deuterium excess is found. On the contrary, sea surface temperature in the evaporation regions does not correlate well with deuterium excess. Although requiring confirmation by isotope data from different regions and longer time scales, this weak correlation might be of major importance for the reconstruction of moisture source temperatures from ice core data. Second, the Lagrangian source diagnostic is combined with a Craig-Gordon fractionation parameterization for the identified evaporation events in order to simulate the isotope ratios at Rehovot. In this way, the Craig-Gordon model can be directly evaluated with atmospheric isotope data, and better constraints for uncertain model parameters can be obtained. A comparison of the simulated deuterium excess with the measurements reveals that a much better agreement can be achieved using a wind speed independent formulation of the non-equilibrium fractionation factor instead of the classical parameterization introduced by Merlivat and Jouzel, which is widely applied in isotope GCMs. Finally, the first steps of the implementation of water isotope physics in the limited-area COSMO model are described, and an approach is outlined that allows to compare simulated isotope ratios to measurements in an event-based manner by using a water tagging technique. The good agreement between model results from several case studies and measurements at Rehovot demonstrates the applicability of the approach. Because the model can be run with high, potentially cloud-resolving spatial resolution, and because it contains sophisticated parameterizations of many atmospheric processes, a complete implementation of isotope physics will allow detailed, process-oriented studies of the complex variability of stable isotopes in atmospheric waters in future research.rn

Responses to rapid warming at Termination 1a at Gerzensee (Central Europe): Primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions

The transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling around 14,685 cal yr BP was a period of extremely rapid climatic warming. From a single core of lake marl taken at Gerzensee (Switzerland) we studied the transition in stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon on bulk sediment and charophyte remains, as well as on monospecific samples of ostracods, after Pisidium a; in addition pollen, chironomids, and Cladocera were analyzed. The δ18O record serves as an estimate of mean air temperature, and by correlation to the one from NGRIP in Greenland it provides a timescale. The timing of responses: The statistically significant zone boundaries of the biostratigraphies are telescoped at the rapid increase of about 3‰ in δ18O at the onset of Bølling. Biotic responses may have occurred within sampling resolution (8 to 16 years), although younger zone boundaries are less synchronous. Gradual and longer-lasting responses include complex processes such as primary or secular succession. During the late-glacial interstadial of Bølling and Allerød, two stronger and two weaker cool phases were found. Biological processes involved in the responses occurred on levels of individuals (e.g. pollen productivity), of populations (increases or decreases, immigration, or extinction), and on the ecosystem level (species interactions such as facilitation or competition). Abiotic and biotic interactions include pedogenesis, nitrogen-fixation, nutrient cycling, catchment hydrology, water chemistry of the lake and albedo (controlled by the transition from tundra to forest). For the Swiss Plateau this major change in vegetation induced a change in the mammal fauna, which in turn led to changes in the tool-making by Paleolithic people.

Patterns in fish radiation are compatible with Pleistocene desiccation of Lake Victoria and 14 600 year history for its cichlid species flock

Geophysical data are currently being interpreted as evidence for a late Pleistocene desiccation of Lake Victoria and its refilling 14 600 years ago. This implies that between 500 and 1000 endemic cichlid fish species must have evolved in 14 600 years, the fastest large-scale species radiation known. A recent review concludes that biological evidence clearly rejects the postulated Pleistocene desiccation of the lake: a 14 600 year history would imply exceptionally high speciation rates across a range of unrelated fish taxa. To test this suggestion, I calculated speciation rates for all 41 phylogenetic lineages of fish in the lake. Except for one cichlid lineage, accepting a 14 600 year history does not require any speciation rates that fall outside the range observed in fishes in other young lakes around the world. The exceptional taxon is a lineage of haplochromine cichlids that is also known for its rapid speciation elsewhere. Moreover, since it is unknown how many founding species it has, it is not certain that its speciation rates are really outside the range observed in fishes in other young lakes. Fish speciation rates are generally faster in younger than in older lakes, and those in Lake Victoria, by far the largest of the young lakes of the world, are no exception. From the speciation rates and from biogeographical observations that Lake Victoria endemics, which lack close relatives within the lake basin, have such relatives in adjacent drainage systems that may have had Holocene connections to Lake Victoria, I conclude that the composition of the fish assemblage does not provide biological evidence against Pleistocene desiccation. It supports a hypothesis of recent colonization from outside the lake basin rather than survival of a diverse assemblage within the basin.

Kadesh-Barnea : its importance and probable site, with the story of a hunt for it, including studies of the route of the exodus and the southern boundary of the Holy Land

by H. Clay Trumbull

Dive depth and dive duration data of subadult and adult, male and female southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

Although numerous studies have addressed the migration and dive behaviour of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), questions remain about their habitat use in the marine environment. We report on the vertical use of the water column in the species and the potential lifetime implications for southern elephant seals from Marion Island. Long-term mark-resight data were used to complement vertical habitat use for 35 known individuals tagged with satellite-relay data loggers, resulting in cumulative depth use extrapolated for each individual over its estimated lifespan. Seals spent on average 77.59% of their lives diving at sea, 7.06% at the sea surface, and 15.35% hauled out on land. Some segregation was observed in maximum dive depths and depth use between male and female animals-males evidently being physiologically more capable of exploiting increased depths. Females and males spent 86.98 and 80.89% of their lives at sea, respectively. While at sea, all animals spent more time between 300 and 400 m depth, than any other depth category. Males and females spent comparable percentages of their lifetimes below 100 m depth (males: 65.54%; females: 68.92%), though males spent 8.98% of their lives at depths in excess of 700 m, compared to females' 1.84% at such depths. Adult males often performed benthic dives in excess of 2,000 m, including the deepest known recorded dive of any air-breathing vertebrate (>2,133 m). Our results provide a close approximation of vertical habitat use by southern elephant seals, extrapolated over their lifespans, and we discuss some physiological and developmental implications of their variable depth use.

Age determination, sedimentological, biogeochemical, and plant macrofossils analyses of outcrop PG2038-1

Thermokarst lakes are a widespread feature of the Arctic tundra, in which highly dynamic processes are closely connected with current and past climate changes. We investigated late Quaternary sediment dynamics, basin and shoreline evolution, and environmental interrelations of Lake El'gene-Kyuele in the NE Siberian Arctic (latitude 71°17'N, longitude 125°34'E). The water-body displays thaw-lake characteristics cutting into both Pleistocene Ice Complex and Holocene alas sediments. Our methods are based on grain size distribution, mineralogical composition, TOC/N ratio, stable carbon isotopes and the analysis of plant macrofossils from a 3.5-m sediment profile at the modern eastern lake shore. Our results show two main sources for sediments in the lake basin: terrigenous diamicton supplied from thermokarst slopes and the lake shore, and lacustrine detritus that has mainly settled in the deep lake basin. The lake and its adjacent thermokarst basin rapidly expanded during the early Holocene. This climatically warmer than today period was characterized by forest or forest tundra vegetation composed of larches, birch trees and shrubs. Woodlands of both the HTM and the Late Pleistocene were affected by fire, which potentially triggered the initiation of thermokarst processes resulting later in lake formation and expansion. The maximum lake depth at the study site and the lowest limnic bioproductivity occurred during the longest time interval of ~7 ka starting in the Holocene Thermal Maximum and lasting throughout the progressively cooler Neoglacial, whereas partial drainage and an extensive shift of the lake shoreline occurred ~0.9 cal. ka BP. Correspondingly, this study discusses different climatic and environmental drivers for the dynamics of a thermokarst basin.

Dive depth and dive duration data of subadult and adult, male and female southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

Sexual segregation in habitat use occurs in a number of animal species, including southern elephant seals, where differences in migration localities and dive behaviour between sexes have been recorded. Due to the extreme sexual size dimorphism exhibited by southern elephant seals, it is unclear whether observed differences in dive behaviour are due to increased physiological capacity of males, compared to females, or differences in activity budgets and foraging behaviour. Here we use a mixed-effects modelling approach to investigate the effects of sex, size, age and individual variation on a number of dive parameters measured on southern elephant seals from Marion Island. Although individual variation accounted for substantial portions of total model variance for many response variables, differences in maximum and targeted dive depths were always influenced by sex, and only partly by body length. Conversely, dive durations were always influenced by body length, while sex was not identified as a significant influence. These results support hypotheses that physiological capability associated with body size is a limiting factor on dive durations. However, differences in vertical depth use appear to be the result of differences in forage selection between sexes, rather than a by-product of the size dimorphism displayed by this species. This provides further support for resource partitioning and possible avoidance of inter-sexual competition in southern elephant seals.