Europe's social problem and its implications for economic growth. Bruegel Policy Brief 2014/03, 1 April 2014

The European Union faces major social problems. More than six million jobs were lost from 2008-13 and poverty has increased. Fiscal consolidation has generally attempted to spare social protection from spending cuts, but the distribution of adjustment costs between the young and old has been uneven; a growing generational divide is evident, disadvantaging the young. The efficiency of the social security systems of EU countries varies widely. Countries with greater inequality tended to have higher household borrowing prior to the crisis resulting in more subdued consumption growth during the crisis. The resulting high private debt, high unemployment, poverty and more limited access to education undermine long-term growth and social and political stability. Policymakers face three main challenges. First, addressing unemployment and poverty should remain a high priority not only for its own sake, but because these problems undermine public debt sustainability and growth. Second, bold policies in various areas are required. Most labour, social and fiscal policies are the responsibility of member states, requiring national reforms. But better coordination of demand management at European level is also necessary in order to create jobs. Third, tax/benefit systems should be reviewed for improved efficiency, inter- generational equity and fair burden sharing between the wealthy and poor.

The Impact of Spain’s Economic and Political Crisis on the European Elections. EPIN Commentaries No. 17, 2 April 2014

Despite the emergence of a critical debate against the EU-imposed austerity measures both at the level of the political elites and on the street, this EPIN Commentary by two Spanish political scientists based in Barcelona finds no sign that the upcoming European elections will have a more European focus than any of the previous ones. While there is no anti-European discourse among the Spanish mainstream political parties, they report that public trust in the European institutions is plummeting and Spanish turnout in European elections has been dropping in the last few years. In the authors’ view, the main reason for this is the low level of awareness of the functioning of the European Parliament but some responsibility also lies with the Spanish political parties and the way they deal with the electoral campaign to mobilise the discontented voters, who consider unemployment and the economic situation as the two most important issues that the country is facing at the moment.

Commonalities and Differences in Labour Market Developments and Constraints in Different EU Regions. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 22, February 2012

This paper provides a detailed overview of the differences across EU member states’ labour markets, through the extensive use of descriptive statistics. The objective is two-fold: firstly, it identifies the commonalities and differences in rural labour markets across EU regions and their developments, with special regard to agriculture, and secondly it emphasises the constraints that may hinder the efficient functioning of labour markets. Therefore, the paper starts with a description of the main indicators in the general labour market theory, such as the structure of the population in terms of age and gender distribution, unemployment and activity rates, employment levels, quality of human capital, migration patterns, and so forth. Secondly, we focus on the differences among rural and urban areas to then look closely at the agricultural sector. The institutional framework in which labour market institutions operate is also included. Lastly, as an attempt to summarise the analysis and to classify the EU member states according to certain rural and specific agricultural indicators, cluster analysis is also employed. Policy implications include investment in human capital and vocational training, support to young farmers, promoting economic diversification and upgrading infrastructure, with special regard to the new member states and to the Southern parts of Europe.

Poor and under pressure: the social impact of Europe's fiscal consolidation. Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2015/04, March 2015

Europe faces major challenges related to poverty, unemployment and polarisation between the south and the north, which impact adversely the current living conditions of many citizens, and also negatively impact medium- and long-term economic growth. Fiscal consolidation exaggerated social hardship. In vulnerable countries there was no alternative to fiscal consolidation, but in most EU countries and at aggregate EU level, consolidation was premature when the cyclical position of the economy was deteriorating. Spending on social protection was shielded relative to other spending categories, but public bank rescue costs were high. While the changes in the tax mix favoured job creation, the overall tax burden become more regressive. There is an increasing generational divide between the elderly and the young in terms of social indicators. Social spending on elderly people was favoured relative to spending on families, children and education. There is now a serious danger that a lost generation might develop in several member states. Forceful policies should include bold structural reforms, better use of the European economic governance framework, more demand promotion, and a revision of national tax/benefit systems for fair burden sharing between the wealthy and poor.

Safety compliance test for FMVSS 301-75 and Accident Investigation Division data. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Safety assessment of Denver Type I and Standard Type II Barricades via full scale tests. Volume I: executive summary. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Safety assessment of Denver Type I and Standard Type II Barricades via full scale tests. Volume II. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Cost evaluation of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) 108 and 207. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behavior among regular ecstasy users in Australia

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behaviour among a sentinel sample of ecstasy users. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with regular ecstasy users as part of an annual monitoring study of ecstasy and related drug markets in all Australian capital cities. Results: Twenty-three percent of the sample reported having ever injected a drug and 15% reported injecting in the 6 months preceding interview. Independent predictors of lifetime injection were older age, unemployment and having ever been in prison. Completion of secondary school and identifying as heterosexual was associated with a lower likelihood of having ever injected. Participants who had recently injected typically did so infrequently; only 9% reported daily injecting. Methamphetamine was the most commonly injected drug. Prevalence of needle sharing was low (6%), although half (47%) reported sharing other injecting equipment in the preceding 6 months. Conclusions: Ecstasy users who report having injected a drug at some time appear to be demographically different to ecstasy users who have not injected although neither are they typical of other drug injectors. The current investigation suggests that ongoing monitoring of injecting among regular ecstasy users is warranted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Industrial policy, FDI and employment:still a 'missing a strategy'

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any 'new' industrial policy.

Hymer and uneven development revisited:Foreign Direct Investment and regional inequalities

Picking up on one of Hymer's key contributions, this paper examines the impact that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK has on the patterns of development, both within and across regions. Using a panel of data for the manufacturing sector, the paper illustrates that even where one isolates the effect on the domestic sector alone, inward investment acts to increase the demand for skilled, relative to unskilled labour, and also generates the expected agglomeration effects in terms of the demand for capital investment. The paper then goes on to draw certain policy comparisons between these findings and the desired aim of attracting FDI, notably to increase demand for labour in those regions suffering structural unemployment, and secondly to reduce the disparities between regions.

Industrial policy, FDI and employment:still a 'missing a strategy'

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any ‘new’ industrial policy.

Entrepreneurial intention and entrepreneurial behaviour:a social psychological perspective

Increasing the supply of entrepreneurs reduces unemployment and accelerates economic growth (Acs, 2006; Audretsch, 2007; Santarelli et el. 2009; Campbell, 1996; Carree & Thurik, 1996). The supply of entrepreneurs depends on the entrepreneurial intention and activity of the people (Kruger & Brazeal, 1994). Existing behavioural theories explain that entrepreneurial activity is an attitude driven process which is mediated by intention and regulated by behavioural control. These theories are: Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991; 2002, 2012); Entrepreneurial Event Model (Shapiro & Shokol, 1982), and Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, 1977; 1986; 2012). Meta-analysis of existing behavioural theories in different fields found that the theories are more effective to analyse behavioural intention and habitual behaviour, but less effective to analyse long-term and risky behaviour (McEachan et al., 2011). The objective of this dissertation is to improve entrepreneurship behaviour theory to advance our understanding of the determinants of the entrepreneurial intention and activity. To achieve this objective we asked three compelling questions in our research. These are: Firstly, why do differences exist in entrepreneurship among age groups. Secondly, how can we improve the theory to analyse entrepreneurial intention and behaviour? And, thirdly, is there any relationship between counterfactual or regretful thinking and entrepreneurial intention? We address these three questions in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of the dissertation. Earlier studies have identified that there is an inverse U shaped relationship between age and entrepreneurship (Parker, 2004; Hart et al., 2004). In our study, we explain the reasons for this inverse U shape (Chapter 2). To analyse the reasons we use Cognitive Life Cycle theory and Disuse theory. We assume that the stage in the life cycle of an individual moderates the influence of opportunity identification and skill to start a business. In our study, we analyse the moderation effect in early stage entrepreneurship and in serial entrepreneurship. In Chapter 3, the limitations of existing psychological theories are discussed, and a competency value theory of entrepreneurship (CVTE) is proposed to overcome the limitations and extend existing theories. We use a ‘weighted competency’ variable instead of a ‘perceived behavioural control’ variable for the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and self-efficacy variable for social cognitive theory. Weighted competency is the perceived competency ranking assigned by an individual for his total competencies to be an entrepreneur. The proposed theory was tested in a pilot survey in the UK and in a national adult population survey in a South Asian Country. The results show a significant relationship between competencies and entrepreneurial intention, and weighted competencies and entrepreneurial behaviour as per CVTE. To improve the theory further, in Chapter 4, we test the relationship between counterfactual thinking and entrepreneurial intention. Studies in cognitive psychology identify that ‘upward counterfactual thinking’ influences intention and behaviour (Epstude & Rose, 2008; Smallman & Roese, 2009). Upward counterfactual thinking is regretful thinking for missed opportunities of a problem. This study addresses the question of how an individual’s regretful thinking affects his or her future entrepreneurial career intention. To do so, we conducted a study among students in a business school in the UK, and we found that counterfactual thinking modifies the influence of attitude and opportunity identification in entrepreneurial career intention.

Industrial policy, FDI and employment:Still 'missing a strategy'

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any 'new' industrial policy.

An intervention encouraging planned self-regulation and goal setting in drivers across the lifespan:testing an extended theory of planned behaviour

Previous work has demonstrated that planning behaviours may be more adaptive than avoidance strategies in driving self-regulation, but ways of encouraging planning have not been investigated. The efficacy of an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) plus implementation intention based intervention to promote planning self-regulation in drivers across the lifespan was tested. An age stratified group of participants (N=81, aged 18-83 years) was randomly assigned to an experimental or control condition. The intervention prompted specific goal setting with action planning and barrier identification. Goal setting was carried out using an agreed behavioural contract. Baseline and follow-up measures of TPB variables, self-reported, driving self-regulation behaviours (avoidance and planning) and mobility goal achievements were collected using postal questionnaires. Like many previous efforts to change planned behaviour by changing its predictors using models of planned behaviour such as the TPB, results showed that the intervention did not significantly change any of the model components. However, more than 90% of participants achieved their primary driving goal, and self-regulation planning as measured on a self-regulation inventory was marginally improved. The study demonstrates the role of pre-decisional, or motivational components as contrasted with post-decisional goal enactment, and offers promise for the role of self-regulation planning and implementation intentions in assisting drivers in achieving their mobility goals and promoting safer driving across the lifespan, even in the context of unchanging beliefs such as perceived risk or driver anxiety.