Drivers of Decadal-Scale Change in Southern Everglades Wetland Macrophyte Communities of the Coastal Ecotone

Understanding the relationships between hydrology and salinity and plant community structure and production is critical to allow predictions of wetland responses to altered water management, changing precipitation patterns and rising sea-level. We addressed how salinity, water depth, hydroperiod, canal inflows, and local precipitation control marsh macrophyte aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and structure in the coastal ecotone of the southern Everglades. We contrasted responses in two watersheds - Taylor Slough (TS) and C-111 - systems that have and will continue to experience changes in water management. Based on long-term trajectories in plant responses, we found continued evidence of increasing water levels and length of inundation in the C-111 watershed south of the C-111 canal. We also found strong differentiation among sites in upper TS that was dependent on hydrology. Finally, salinity, local precipitation and freshwater discharge from upstream explained over 80 % of the variance in Cladium ANPP at a brackish water site in TS. Moreover, our study showed that, while highly managed, the TS and C-111 watersheds maintain legacies in spatial pattern that would facilitate hydrologic restoration. Based on the trajectories in Cladium and Eleocharis, shifts in plant community structure could occur within 5–10 years of sustained water management change.

Community Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in East Palo Alto

Climate change and sea level rise continue to devastate communities around the globe. The impacts have a disproportionate effect on those of lower socio-economic levels, and the consequences are frequently not borne equally amongst impacted individuals (UNDP, 2013). Community-based adaptation has been widely used to assess vulnerabilities and impacts at the community level, with an inclusive process that addresses root causes of risk. The process provides the opportunity for local government to empower and engaged impacted communities in identifying and prioritizing their urgent adaptation needs. This study aims to understand East Palo Alto community vulnerabilities by assessing local knowledge and perception of risk to climate change. East Palo Alto, an urban city in California with socio-economic challenges, is vulnerable to flooding and coastal inundation. The limited financial and institutional capacity of the local government and community increases vulnerability and risk. Recommendations and steps are presented to guide actions and programs that are crucial in addressing community priorities and concerns.

Community Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in East Palo Alto

Climate change and sea level rise continue to devastate communities around the globe. The impacts have a disproportionate effect on those of lower socio-economic levels, and the consequences are frequently not borne equally amongst impacted individuals (UNDP, 2013). Community-based adaptation has been widely used to assess vulnerabilities and impacts at the community level, with an inclusive process that addresses root causes of risk. The process provides the opportunity for local government to empower and engaged impacted communities in identifying and prioritising their urgent adaptation needs. This study aims to understand East Palo Alto community vulnerabilities by assessing local knowledge and perception of risk to climate change. East Palo Alto, an urban city in California with socio- economic challenges, is vulnerable to flooding and coastal inundation. The limited financial and institutional capacity of the local government and community increases vulnerability and risk. Recommendations and steps are presented to guide actions and programs that are crucial in addressing community priorities and concerns

Characterization of the defined MDC types and compilation of MDC initiation times (excel-file 19 kB)

Mud accumulates on continental shelves under a variety of environmental conditions and results in a diverse formation of mud depocenters (MDCs). Their three-dimensional architectures have been in the focus of several recent studies. Due to some terminological confusion concerning MDCs, the present study sets out to define eight individual MDC types in terms of surface sediment distribution and internal geometry. Under conditions of substantial sediment supply, prodeltas (distal zones off river deltas; triangular sheets), subaqueous deltas (disconnected from deltas by strong normal-to-shore currents; wedge-like clinoforms), and mud patches (scattered distribution) and mud blankets (widespread covers) are formed. Forced by hydrodynamic conditions, mud belts in the strict sense (detached from source; elongated bodies), and shallow-water contourite drifts (detached from source; growing normal to prevailing current direction; triangular clinoforms) develop. Controlled by local morphology, mud entrapments (in depressions, behind morphological steps) and mud wedges (triangular clinoforms growing in flow direction) are deposited. Shelf mud deposition took place (1) during early outer-shelf drowning (~14 ka), (2) after inner-shelf inundation to maximum flooding (9.5-6.5 ka), and (3) in sub-recent times (<2 ka). Subsequent expansion may be (1) concentric, in cases where the depocenter formed near the fluvial source, (2) uni-directional, extending along advective current transport paths, and (3) progradational, forming clinoforms that grow either parallel or normal to the bottom current direction. Classical mud belts may be initiated around defined nuclei, the remote sites of which are determined by seafloor morphology rather than the location of the source. From a stratigraphic perspective, mud depocenters coincide with sea-level highstand-related, shelf-wide condensed sections. They often show a conformable succession from transgressive to highstand systems tract stages.

Pollen and spore counts of sediment core GeoB12624

In tropical eastern Africa, vegetation distribution is largely controlled by regional hydrology, which has varied over the past 20 000 years. Therefore, accurate reconstructions of past vegetation and hydrological changes are crucial for a better understanding of climate variability in the tropical southeastern African region. We present high-resolution pollen records from a marine sediment core recovered offshore of the Rufiji River delta. Our data document significant shifts in pollen assemblages during the last deglaciation, identifying, through changes in both upland and lowland vegetation, specific responses of plant communities to atmospheric (precipitation) and coastal (coastal dynamics and sea-level changes) alterations. Specifically, arid conditions reflected by a maximum pollen representation of dry and open vegetation occurred during the Northern Hemisphere cold Heinrich event 1 (H1), suggesting that the expansion of drier upland vegetation was synchronous with cold Northern Hemisphere conditions. This arid period is followed by an interval in which forest and humid woodlands expanded, indicating a hydrologic shift towards more humid conditions. Droughts during H1 and the shift to humid conditions around 14.8 kyr BP in the uplands are consistent with latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations. Additionally, our results show that the lowland vegetation, consisting of well-developed salt marshes and mangroves in a successional pattern typical for vegetation occurring in intertidal habitats, has responded mainly to local coastal dynamics related to marine inundation frequencies and soil salinity in the Rufiji Delta as well as to the local moisture availability. Lowland vegetation shows a substantial expansion of mangrove trees after ~ 14.8 kyr BP, suggesting an increased moisture availability and river runoff in the coastal area. The results of this study highlight the decoupled climatic and environmental processes to which the vegetation in the uplands and the Rufiji Delta has responded during the last deglaciation.

Age determination of sediment cores from the Laptev Sea

To establish a chronology of the Holocene transgression in Arctic Siberia, a total of 14 sediment cores from the Laptev Sea continental slope and shelf were studied covering the water depth range between 983 and 21 m. The age models of the cores were derived from 119 radiocarbon datings, which were all analyzed on marine biogenic calcite (mainly bivalve shells). The oldest shell sample was found at the slope and dates back to about 15.3 cal. ka, indicating that the time interval investigated starts prior to the onset of the meltwater pulse 1A (~14.2 cal. ka) when global sea-level rose dramatically. The inundation history was reconstructed mainly on the basis of major changes in average sedimentation rates (ASR), but also other sedimentological parameters were incorporated. A diachronous reduction in ASR from the outer to the inner shelf region is recognized, which was related to the southward migration of the coastline as the primary sediment source. We estimate that the flooding of the 50-, 43-, and 31-m isobaths was completed by approximately 11.1, 9.8, and 8.9 cal. ka, and that Holocene sea-level highstand was approached near 5 cal. ka. Between these time intervals, sea level in the Laptev Sea rose by 5.4, 13.3, and 7.9 mm/year, respectively.

Climate change and the evolution of loggerhead sex-ratio in Cabo Verde

[EN] Global warming can affect nesting success of sea turtles due to the rise of the sea level and the subsequent increased inundation or erosion of nesting beaches. Moreover, it can reduce male production to levels that can alter reproduction due to their temperature dependant sex determination (TSD). Now, mean nest temperatures all around the world predict a predominance of female hatchlings, and this trend may increase with global warming in the next decades.

Macroinvertebrate Community Composition and Diversity in Ephemeral and Perennial Ponds on Unregulated Floodplain Meadows in the UK

Ponds are common and abundant landscape features in temperate environments, particularly on floodplains where lateral connectivity with riverine systems persists. Despite their widespread occurrence and importance to regional diversity, research on the ecology and hydrology of temperate ephemeral and perennial floodplain ponds lags behind that of other shallow waterbodies. This study examines the aquatic macroinvertebrate diversity of 34 ponds (20 perennial and 14 ephemeral) on two unregulated riverine floodplain meadows in Leicestershire, UK. Perennial ponds supported nearly twice the diversity of ephemeral ponds. Despite frequent inundation of floodwater and connectivity with other floodplain waterbodies, ephemeral ponds supported distinct invertebrate communities when compared to perennial ponds. When the relative importance of physical and chemical, biological and spatial characteristics was examined, physical and chemical characteristics were found to account for more variation in community composition than biological or spatial variables. The results suggest that niche characteristics rather than neutral colonisation processes dominate the structure of invertebrate communities of floodplain ponds. The maintenance of pond networks with varying hydroperiod lengths and environmental characteristics should be encouraged as part of conservation management strategies to provide heterogeneous environmental conditions to support and enhance aquatic biodiversity at a landscape scale.

The Role of Corals on Tsunami Dynamics in an Island Setting: A Case Study of Tutuila Island

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Public Risk Interpretation and Community Resilience Planning: A Case Study in Aberdeen, Washington

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Stakeholder-led science: engaging resource managers to identify science needs for long-term management of floodplain conservation lands

Floodplains pose challenges to managers of conservation lands because of constantly changing interactions with their rivers. Although scientific knowledge and understanding of the dynamics and drivers of river-floodplain systems can provide guidance to floodplain managers, the scientific process often occurs in isolation from management. Further, communication barriers between scientists and managers can be obstacles to appropriate application of scientific knowledge. With the coproduction of science in mind, our objectives were the following: (1) to document management priorities of floodplain conservation lands, and (2) identify science needs required to better manage the identified management priorities under nonstationary conditions, i.e., climate change, through stakeholder queries and interactions. We conducted an online survey with 80 resource managers of floodplain conservation lands along the Upper and Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, USA, to evaluate management priority, management intensity, and available scientific information for management objectives and conservation targets. Management objectives with the least information available relative to priority included controlling invasive species, maintaining respectful relationships with neighbors, and managing native, nongame species. Conservation targets with the least information available to manage relative to management priority included pollinators, marsh birds, reptiles, and shore birds. A follow-up workshop and survey focused on clarifying science needs to achieve management objectives under nonstationary conditions. Managers agreed that metrics of inundation, including depth and extent of inundation, and frequency, duration, and timing of inundation would be the most useful metrics for management of floodplain conservation lands with multiple objectives. This assessment provides guidance for developing relevant and accessible science products to inform management of highly dynamic floodplain environments. Although the problems facing managers of these lands are complex, products focused on a small suite of inundation metrics were determined to be the most useful to guide the decision making process.

Amphibious City: Sustainable Adaptations to Sea Level Rise in Seattle’s Interbay Area

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Evolution of strength and physical properties of ultramafic and carbonate rocks under hydrothermal conditions

Interaction of rocks with fluids can significantly change mineral assemblage and structure. This so-called hydrothermal alteration is ubiquitous in the Earth’s crust. Though the behavior of hydrothermally altered rocks can have planet-scale consequences, such as facilitating oceanic spreading along slow ridge segments and recycling volatiles into the mantle at subduction zones, the mechanisms involved in the hydrothermal alteration are often microscopic. Fluid-rock interactions take place where the fluid and rock meet. Fluid distribution, flux rate and reactive surface area control the efficiency and extent of hydrothermal alteration. Fluid-rock interactions, such as dissolution, precipitation and fluid mediated fracture and frictional sliding lead to changes in porosity and pore structure that feed back into the hydraulic and mechanical behavior of the bulk rock. Examining the nature of this highly coupled system involves coordinating observations of the mineralogy and structure of naturally altered rocks and laboratory investigation of the fine scale mechanisms of transformation under controlled conditions. In this study, I focus on fluid-rock interactions involving two common lithologies, carbonates and ultramafics, in order to elucidate the coupling between mechanical, hydraulic and chemical processes in these rocks. I perform constant strain-rate triaxial deformation and constant-stress creep tests on several suites of samples while monitoring the evolution of sample strain, permeability and physical properties. Subsequent microstructures are analyzed using optical and scanning electron microscopy. This work yields laboratory-based constraints on the extent and mechanisms of water weakening in carbonates and carbonation reactions in ultramafic rocks. I find that inundation with pore fluid thereby reducing permeability. This effect is sensitive to pore fluid saturation with respect to calcium carbonate. Fluid inundation weakens dunites as well. The addition of carbon dioxide to pore fluid enhances compaction and partial recovery of strength compared to pure water samples. Enhanced compaction in CO2-rich fluid samples is not accompanied by enhanced permeability reduction. Analysis of sample microstructures indicates that precipitation of carbonates along fracture surfaces is responsible for the partial restrengthening and channelized dissolution of olivine is responsible for permeability maintenance.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.