Effect of Mechanical and Geometric Mismatching on Fatigue and Damage of Welded Joints

The future of high technology welded constructions will be characterised by higher strength materials and improved weld quality with respect to fatigue resistance. The expected implementation of high quality high strength steel welds will require that more attention be given to the issues of crack initiation and mechanical mismatching. Experiments and finite element analyses were performed within the framework of continuum damage mechanics to investigate the effect of mismatching of welded joints on void nucleation and coalescence during monotonic loading. It was found that the damage of undermatched joints mainly occurred in the sandwich layer and the damageresistance of the joints decreases with the decrease of the sandwich layer width. The damage of over-matched joints mainly occurred in the base metal adjacent to the sandwich layer and the damage resistance of the joints increases with thedecrease of the sandwich layer width. The mechanisms of the initiation of the micro voids/cracks were found to be cracking of the inclusions or the embrittled second phase, and the debonding of the inclusions from the matrix. Experimental fatigue crack growth rate testing showed that the fatigue life of under-matched central crack panel specimens is longer than that of over-matched and even-matched specimens. Further investigation by the elastic-plastic finite element analysis indicated that fatigue crack closure, which originated from the inhomogeneousyielding adjacent to the crack tip, played an important role in the fatigue crack propagation. The applicability of the J integral concept to the mismatched specimens with crack extension under cyclic loading was assessed. The concept of fatigue class used by the International Institute of Welding was introduced in the parametric numerical analysis of several welded joints. The effect of weld geometry and load condition on fatigue strength of ferrite-pearlite steel joints was systematically evaluated based on linear elastic fracture mechanics. Joint types included lap joints, angle joints and butt joints. Various combinations of the tensile and bending loads were considered during the evaluation with the emphasis focused on the existence of both root and toe cracks. For a lap joint with asmall lack-of-penetration, a reasonably large weld leg and smaller flank angle were recommended for engineering practice in order to achieve higher fatigue strength. It was found that the fatigue strength of the angle joint depended strongly on the location and orientation of the preexisting crack-like welding defects, even if the joint was welded with full penetration. It is commonly believed that the double sided butt welds can have significantly higher fatigue strength than that of a single sided welds, but fatigue crack initiation and propagation can originate from the weld root if the welding procedure results in a partial penetration. It is clearly shown that the fatigue strength of the butt joint could be improved remarkably by ensuring full penetration. Nevertheless, increasing the fatigue strength of a butt joint by increasing the size of the weld is an uneconomical alternative.

Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Combined with EEG Reveals Covert States of Elevated Excitability in the Human Epileptic Brain.

BACKGROUND: Transcranial magnetic stimulation combined with electroencephalogram (TMS-EEG) can be used to explore the dynamical state of neuronal networks. In patients with epilepsy, TMS can induce epileptiform discharges (EDs) with a stochastic occurrence despite constant stimulation parameters. This observation raises the possibility that the pre-stimulation period contains multiple covert states of brain excitability some of which are associated with the generation of EDs. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the interictal period contains "high excitability" states that upon brain stimulation produce EDs and can be differentiated from "low excitability" states producing normal appearing TMS-EEG responses. METHODS: In a cohort of 25 patients with Genetic Generalized Epilepsies (GGE) we identified two subjects characterized by the intermittent development of TMS-induced EDs. The high-excitability in the pre-stimulation period was assessed using multiple measures of univariate time series analysis. Measures providing optimal discrimination were identified by feature selection techniques. The "high excitability" states emerged in multiple loci (indicating diffuse cortical hyperexcitability) and were clearly differentiated on the basis of 14 measures from "low excitability" states (accuracy = 0.7). CONCLUSION: In GGE, the interictal period contains multiple, quasi-stable covert states of excitability a class of which is associated with the generation of TMS-induced EDs. The relevance of these findings to theoretical models of ictogenesis is discussed.

Blind Inversion of Wiener System using a minimization-projection (MP) approach

In this paper, a new algorithm for blind inversion of Wiener systems is presented. The algorithm is based on minimization of mutual information of the output samples. This minimization is done through a Minimization-Projection (MP) approach, using a nonparametric “gradient” of mutual information.

Improving algorithm speed in PNL mixture separation and Wiener system inversion

This paper proposes a very simple method for increasing the algorithm speed for separating sources from PNL mixtures or invertingWiener systems. The method is based on a pertinent initialization of the inverse system, whose computational cost is very low. The nonlinear part is roughly approximated by pushing the observations to be Gaussian; this method provides a surprisingly good approximation even when the basic assumption is not fully satisfied. The linear part is initialized so that outputs are decorrelated. Experiments shows the impressive speed improvement.

Mercury analysis in hair: comparability and quality assessment within the transnational COPHES/DEMOCOPHES project

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is an effective tool for assessing actual exposure to chemicals that takes into account all routes of intake. Although hair analysis is considered to be an optimal biomarker for assessing mercury exposure, the lack of harmonization as regards sampling and analytical procedures has often limited the comparison of data at national and international level. The European-funded projects COPHES and DEMOCOPHES developed and tested a harmonized European approach to Human Biomonitoring in response to the European Environment and Health Action Plan. Herein we describe the quality assurance program (QAP) for assessing mercury levels in hair samples from more than 1800 mother-child pairs recruited in 17 European countries. To ensure the comparability of the results, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for sampling and for mercury analysis were drafted and distributed to participating laboratories. Training sessions were organized for field workers and four external quality-assessment exercises (ICI/EQUAS), followed by the corresponding web conferences, were organized between March 2011 and February 2012. ICI/EQUAS used native hair samples at two mercury concentration ranges (0.20-0.71 and 0.80-1.63) per exercise. The results revealed relative standard deviations of 7.87-13.55% and 4.04-11.31% for the low and high mercury concentration ranges, respectively. A total of 16 out of 18 participating laboratories the QAP requirements and were allowed to analyze samples from the DEMOCOPHES pilot study. Web conferences after each ICI/EQUAS revealed this to be a new and effective tool for improving analytical performance and increasing capacity building. The procedure developed and tested in COPHES/DEMOCOPHES would be optimal for application on a global scale as regards implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

O estado da arte da cromatografia associada à espectrometria de massas acoplada à espectrometria de massas na análise de compostos tóxicos em alimentos

Chromatography combined with several different detection systems is one of the more used and better performing analytical tools. Chromatography with tandem mass spectrometric detection gives highly selective and sensitive analyses and permits obtaining structural information about the analites and about their molar masses. Due to these characteristics, this analytical technique is very efficient when used to detect substances at trace levels in complex matrices. In this paper we review instrumental and technical aspects of chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and the state of the art of the technique as it is applied to analysis of toxic substances in food.

Analysis of Regular and Irregular Dynamics of a Non Ideal Gear Rattling Problem

This paper presents a study on the dynamics of the rattling problem in gearboxes under non-ideal excitation. The subject has being analyzed by a number of authors such as Karagiannis and Pfeiffer (1991), for the ideal excitation case. An interesting model of the same problem by Moon (1992) has been recently used by Souza and Caldas (1999) to detect chaotic behavior. We consider two spur gears with different diameters and gaps between the teeth. Suppose the motion of one gear to be given while the motion of the other is governed by its dynamics. In the ideal case, the driving wheel is supposed to undergo a sinusoidal motion with given constant amplitude and frequency. In this paper, we consider the motion to be a function of the system response and a limited energy source is adopted. Thus an extra degree of freedom is introduced in the problem. The equations of motion are obtained via a Lagrangian approach with some assumed characteristic torque curves. Next, extensive numerical integration is used to detect some interesting geometrical aspects of regular and irregular motions of the system response.

Tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmän käytettävyys ultralujien terästen korkealaatuisten hitsien väsymismitoituksessa

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmän soveltuvuutta ultralujien terästen korkealaatuisten hitsien väsymismitoitukseen. International Institute of Welding suosittelee käyttämään elementtimenetelmässä hitsin rajaviivoilla sekä juuressa fiktiivistä 1 mm pyöristystä, jonka avulla tehollinen lovijännitys määritetään. Kaikille liitostyypeille sovelletaan samaa, kaltevuudeltaan m = 3 olevaa SN-käyrää, jolloin maksimipääjännitystä vastaava väsymisluokka FAT saa arvon 225. Nykyisiä mitoitusohjeita on pidetty kuitenkin liian konservatiivisina, etenkin jos kyseessä on suurilujuuksisesta teräksestä valmistettu korkealaatuinen hitsi. Rajaviivalla vaikuttavaa lovijännitystä on tutkittu mallintamalla liitokset FEMAP – elementtimenetelmäohjelmalla varioimalla rajaviivan pyöristystä. Elementtimenetelmän tuloksia on verrattu analyyttisiin loven muotoluvun laskentakaavoihin. Tutkittavana on ollut Ruukin Optim 960 QC sekä Optim 1100 QC – teräksistä valmistettuja koesauvoja. Koesauvat on valmistettu sekä koestettu pääasiassa Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston teräsrakenteiden laboratoriossa. Tutkittavat koesauvat ovat olleet kuormaa kantamattomia ristiliitoksia sekä päittäisliitoksia. Suurin osa koesauvoista on väsytetty käyttämällä jännityssuhdetta R < 0,11. Koesauvat on jaoteltu jännityssuhteen sekä liitostyypin mukaan. Kaikkien koekappaleiden karakteristiseksi väsymisluokan arvoksi on määritetty FAT 200. Alle 0,11 jännityssuhteella väsytettyjen koekappaleiden karakteristinen väsymisluokka on FAT 230 ja isoilla jännityssuhteilla väsytettyjen FAT 126. Tulosten perusteella nykyiset mitoitusohjeet eivät ole liian konservatiivisia. Väsymisluokkaa FAT 225 voidaan käyttää väsymislaskennassa, mikäli rakenteen kuormitusten suhde on alle 0,1. Isoilla jännityssuhteilla koestettujen koekappaleiden lukumäärä on ollut pieni, joten niiden mitoitukselle ei voida antaa tarkkoja ohjeita.

Toisen jäte on toisen raaka-aine – Kierrätys ja uudelleenvalmistus taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena

Toisen jäte on toisen raaka-aine – Kierrätys ja uudelleenvalmistus taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena Väitöskirjatutkimus tarkastelee kierrätystä ja uudelleenvalmistusta sekä siihen perustuvaa kierrätysliiketoimintaa taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena. Tässä kestävyys tarkoittaa jätekysymysten ratkaisemista tavalla, joka mahdollistaa kestävän kehityksen periaatteiden mukaisen yhteiskunnan kehittymisen. Jätteisiin liittyvät taloudelliset ja ekolo- giset kysymykset ovat merkittävä yhteiskunnallinen haaste. Tämä luo tarpeen tutkimukselle, jonka lähtökohtana on jätekysymysten moniulotteinen tarkas- telu ja yksittäisen yrityksen toiminnan suhteuttaminen osaksi laajempaa kokonaisuutta. Tässä tutkimuksessa jätteen hyödyntämistä materiaalina lähestytään sekä empiirisesti yrityksen näkökulmasta että teoreettisesti systeemiajattelun tarjoamasta laajemmasta perspektiivistä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on ymmär- tää kierrätystä ja uudelleenvalmistusta liiketoimintamahdollisuutena, niiden merkitystä yrityksessä, alueella ja kierrätystaloudessa sekä näiden vuorovai- kutteista suhdetta taloudelliseen ja ekologiseen kestävyyteen nähden. Tutki- muskysymys on tärkeä, koska siihen vastaamalla syvennetään ymmärrystä yrityksissä tapahtuvan kierrätyksen ja uudelleenvalmistuksen merkityksestä kestävämmän yhteiskunnan rakentumisessa. Tutkimuksen teoriaperusta pohjautuu teollisen ekologian kirjallisuuteen ja ekoteollisen kehityksen tutkimukseen. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan kestävyyden tarkastelu rakentuu tutkimuksessa teollisen ekologian ja ekoteollisen kehityk- sen lähtökohtana olevaan win-win-ajatteluun, jonka mukaan hyvä ympäristö- suorituskyky ja hyvä taloudellinen suorituskyky voivat vahvistaa toisiaan. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan teoreettisessa tarkastelussa keskeisiä elementtejä ovat kierrätystalouden malli, teollisen ekologian alueelliset systeemit, ekoteolliset verkostot ja yrityksen rooli teollista ekologiaa soveltavana toimijana. Tutki- muksen keskeisenä kontribuutiona on yritysnäkökulman integroiminen aiem- paa vahvemmin osaksi teollisen ekologian diskursseja. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan taloudelliseen ja ekologiseen kannattavuuteen ja sen myötä kestävyyteen liittyviä kysymyksiä on lähestytty tekemällä yritys- haastatteluja ja hyödyntämällä valmista haastatteluaineistoa. Tutkimusta varten haastattelin 10 kierrätysliiketoimintaa harjoittavaa yritystä vuosina 2007 ja 2008. Tämän lisäksi tutkimuksessa on hyödynnetty Turun ammatti- korkeakoulun ja Turku Science Parkin toteuttamassa RESU-hankkeessa (Kierrätysliiketoiminta ja resurssitehokkuus Varsinais-Suomen vahvuudeksi – RESU) vuosina 2013 ja 2014 kerättyä aineistoa. Hankkeessa haastateltiin yhteensä 25 jätemateriaalia hyödyntävää ja/tai tuottavaa yritystä. Aineistojen analysointimenetelmänä on sisällönanalyysi. Analyysin tulok- sena muodostettiin yhteensä viisi pääteemaa ja 12 alateemaa. Teemat kuvaavat kierrätysliiketoimintaa aiempaa moniulotteisemmin ja näin syventävät ymmär- rystä ilmiön merkityksestä kestävämmän yhteiskunnan rakentumisessa. Teolli- sen ekologian alaan kuuluvat kvalitatiiviset tutkimukset ovat melko harvinai- sia, joten tämän väitöstutkimuksen ilmeisenä vahvuutena on laadullisen tutkimusmenetelmän hyödyntäminen. Tutkimuksen tuloksena voidaan todeta, että kierrätystalouden kehittymistä edistävä kierrätysliiketoiminta on monimuotoista ja sisältää erilaisia liiketoi- mintamahdollisuuksia sekä arvoketjuja. Paikallistuntemus ja keskeinen sijainti jätemateriaalien tuottajien suhteen on tärkeä kriteeri kierrätysliiketoiminnassa, mutta jätemateriaaleja myös kuljetetaan pitkiä matkoja. Paikallisia tai alueelli- sia jätevirtoja hyödyntävä kierrätysliiketoiminta voi tukea alueellista kestä- vyyttä, mutta toisinaan myös keskitetty hyödyntäminen voi olla kestävä vaih- toehto. Yhteistyöverkostot ovat tärkeitä jätemateriaalin laadun ja saatavuuden näkökulmasta. Tutkimus osoittaa, että kierrätysliiketoimintaa harjoittavat yritykset ovat samalla sekä kierrätystalouden käytännön toimeenpanijoita että uuden toimintakulttuurin luojia. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan esittää johtopäätös, että kierrä- tysliiketoiminta on taloudellisesti ja ekologisesti kannattava liiketoimintamah- dollisuus. Win-win-ratkaisut eivät kuitenkaan takaa kierrätysliiketoiminnan kestävyyttä. Kierrätysliiketoiminnan kestävyyden arvioiminen edellyttää laajaa perspektiiviä ja toiminnan vaikutusten suhteuttamista mittakaavaan, ajalliseen ulottuvuuteen, interventioon ja sosiaalisiin kysymyksiin. Teolliseen ekologiaan perustuva kierrätysliiketoiminta luo mahdollisuuksia edistää kestävyyttä, joten tällä perusteella kierrätystä ja uudelleenvalmistusta voidaan pitää kestävänä liiketoimintamahdollisuutena. Avainsanat: kierrätysliiketoiminta, kierrätys, uudelleenvalmistus, systeemiajattelu, teollinen ekologia, ekoteollinen kehitys, kierrätystalous, win-win-ajattelu, kestävyys One company's waste is another's raw material –Recycling and remanufacturing as an economically and environmentally sustainable business opportunity The thesis investigates whether product recycling and remanufacturing can serve as a business opportunity that is economically and ecologically sustaina- ble. In this effort, my idea is to contribute to solving the waste issue in a manner that makes it possible to strive toward sustainable societal develop- ment. The economic and ecological questions associated with waste flows are a significant challenge. The complexity of the issue requires a multidimen- sional approach in which the operation of an individual company is viewed in the context of the larger societal system. In this thesis waste utilization as a resource with value is considered both from an empirical perspective on the firm as well as from a more general viewpoint offered by systems analysis. The objective of the thesis is to under- stand recycling and remanufacturing as a business opportunity. The thesis considers the meaning of recycling and remanufacturing for a single company, for the region the company is located and for the recycling economy. The objective of this study is important for it enhances the understanding of the product recycling and remanufacturing processes that take place within busi- ness organizations and how these processes affect societal sustainable development. The theoretical basis arises from industrial ecology and from the literature on eco-industrial development. The business-economic win-win situation and this vision serve as the basic position from which recycling business is inves- tigated in the thesis. In the theoretical discussion, key elements are recycling economy model, regional and local industrial ecosystems, eco-industrial networks and the role of a company as an actor that applies industrial ecology in practice. The main contribution of this study lies in integrating the company perspective more strongly into the industrial ecology discourses. The recycling business has been studied by conducting interviews in companies and by secondary analysis of an existing interview material. During 2007 and 2008 I made 10 interviews in companies that are active in recycling business. In addition, I used interview material gathered for the project “Recycling business and resource efficiency as the strength of Southwest Finland” (RESU) by Turku University of Applied Sciences and Turku Science Park during the period 2013–2014. This data covers altogether 25 businesses that either utilize and/or produce waste materials. The data has been analyzed using the content analysis method. This process led to the development of 5 main themes and 12 sub-themes. These themes describe the recycling business multi-dimensionally and thus understanding of the phenomenon and its role in building a sustainable society are substantially deepened in this research. In the field of industrial ecology qualitative studies are relatively rare and therefore the qualitative research approach is an evident strength of the thesis. The results show that the recycling business activity supporting recycling economy has diverse dimensions including various business opportunities and diverse value chains. The results show that for waste producers it is important to know the local situational factors and to have a central geographical location. Waste materials are, however, transported over long distances as well. The study indicates that local waste flow utilization can support regional sustainability, while occasionally a more centralized utilization can be sustain- able. Collaboration networks are important to secure the quality and availabil- ity of utilizable waste materials. The thesis demonstrates that the companies practicing recycling business serve simultaneously as actors that implement recycling economy and enhance a new operation culture within the business community. The overall conclusion of the thesis argues that recycling business is a business opportunity that can support both an economically and environmen- tally viable business operation. However, win-win solutions do not secure the sustainability of recycling business. The sustainability evaluation of recycling business requires a holistic systems perspective. The actions undertaken need to be considered with changing spatial and temporal system boundaries, societal intervention and placed in the context of relevant societal issues. Industrial ecology -based recycling business creates opportunities for sustain- ability and thus recycling and remanufacturing present an opportunity for sustainable business. Keywords: Recycling business; Recycling; Remanufacturing, Systems thinking; Industrial ecology; Eco-industrial development; Recycling Economy; Win-Win thinking; Sustainability

Optimal Recycling Combination of Ash in South-East Finland

The present world energy production is heavily relying on the combustion of solid fuels like coals, peat, biomass, municipal solid waste, whereas the share of renewable fuels is anticipated to increase in the future to mitigate climate change. In Finland, peat and wood are widely used for energy production. In any case, the combustion of solid fuels results in generation of several types of thermal conversion residues, such as bottom ash, fly ash, and boiler slag. The predominant residue type is determined by the incineration technology applied, while its composition is primarily relevant to the composition of fuels combusted. An extensive research has been conducted on technical suitability of ash for multiple recycling methods. Most of attention was drawn to the recycling of the coal combustion residues, as coal is the primary solid fuel consumed globally. The recycling methods of coal residues include utilization in a cement industry, in concrete manufacturing, and mine backfilling, to name few. Biomass combustion residues were also studied to some extent with forest fertilization, road construction, and road stabilization being the predominant utilization options. Lastly, residues form municipal solid waste incineration attracted more attention recently following the growing number of waste incineration plants globally. The recycling methods of waste incineration residues are the most limited due to its hazardous nature and varying composition, and include, among others, landfill construction, road construction, mine backfilling. In the study, environmental and economic aspects of multiple recycling options of thermal conversion residues generated within a case-study area were studied. The case-study area was South-East Finland. The environmental analysis was performed using an internationally recognized methodology — life cycle assessment. Economic assessment was conducted applying a widely used methodology — cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the results of the analyses were combined to enable easier comparison of the recycling methods. The recycling methods included the use of ash in forest fertilization, road construction, road stabilization, and landfill construction. Ash landfilling was set as a baseline scenario. Quantitative data about the amounts of ash generated and its composition was obtained from companies, their environmental reports, technical reports and other previously published literature. Overall, the amount of ash in the case-study area was 101 700 t. However, the data about 58 400 t of fly ash and 35 100 t of bottom ash and boiler slag were included in the study due to lack of data about leaching of heavy metals in some cases. The recycling methods were modelled according to the scientific studies published previously. Overall, the results of the study indicated that ash utilization for fertilization and neutralization of 17 600 ha of forest was the most economically beneficial method, which resulted in the net present value increase by 58% compared to ash landfilling. Regarding the environmental impact, the use of ash in the construction of 11 km of roads was the most attractive method with decreased environmental impact of 13% compared to ash landfilling. The least preferred method was the use of ash for landfill construction since it only enabled 11% increase of net present value, while inducing additional 1% of negative impact on the environment. Therefore, a following recycling route was proposed in the study. Where possible and legally acceptable, recycle fly and bottom ash for forest fertilization, which has strictest requirements out of all studied methods. If the quality of fly ash is not suitable for forest fertilization, then it should be utilized, first, in paved road construction, second, in road stabilization. Bottom ash not suitable for forest fertilization, as well as boiler slag, should be used in landfill construction. Landfilling should only be practiced when recycling by either of the methods is not possible due to legal requirements or there is not enough demand on the market. Current demand on ash and possible changes in the future were assessed in the study. Currently, the area of forest fertilized in the case-study are is only 451 ha, whereas about 17 600 ha of forest could be fertilized with ash generated in the region. Provided that the average forest fertilizing values in Finland are higher and the area treated with fellings is about 40 000 ha, the amount of ash utilized in forest fertilization could be increased. Regarding road construction, no new projects launched by the Center of Economic Development, Transport and the Environment in the case-study area were identified. A potential application can be found in the construction of private roads. However, no centralized data about such projects is available. The use of ash in stabilization of forest roads is not expected to increased in the future with a current downwards trend in the length of forest roads built. Finally, the use of ash in landfill construction is not a promising option due to the reducing number of landfills in operation in Finland.

Decision analysis of the effectiveness of lung cancer screening using autofluorescence bronchoscopy and computed tomography

Background: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in the developed world. Most cancers are associated with tobacco smoking. A primary hope for reducing lung cancer has been prevention of smoking and successful smoking cessation programs. To date, these programs have not been as successful as anticipated. Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether lung cancer screening combining low dose computed tomography with autofluorescence bronchoscopy (combined CT & AFB) is superior to CT or AFB screening alone in improving lung cancer specific survival. In addition, the extent of improvement and ideal conditions for combined CT & AFB screening were evaluated. Methods: We applied decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation modeling using TreeAge Software to evaluate our study aims. Histology- and stage specific probabilities of lung cancer 5-year survival proportions were taken from Surveillance and Epidemiologic End Results (SEER) Registry data. Screeningassociated data was taken from the US NCI Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO), National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), and US NCI Lung Screening Study (LSS), other relevant published data and expert opinion. Results: Decision Analysis - Combined CT and AFB was the best approach at Improving 5-year survival (Overall Expected Survival (OES) in the entire screened population was 0.9863) and in lung cancer patients only (Lung Cancer Specific Expected Survival (LOSES) was 0.3256). Combined screening was slightly better than CT screening alone (OES = 0.9859; LCSES = 0.2966), and substantially better than AFB screening alone (OES = 0.9842; LCSES = 0.2124), which was considerably better than no screening (OES = 0.9829; LCSES = 0.1445). Monte Carlo simulation modeling revealed that expected survival in the screened population and lung cancer patients is highest when screened using CT and combined CT and AFB. CT alone and combined screening was substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening. For LCSES, combined CT and AFB screening is significantly better than CT alone (0.3126 vs. 0.2938, p< 0.0001). Conclusions: Overall, these analyses suggest that combined CT and AFB is slightly better than CT alone at improving lung cancer survival, and both approaches are substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening.

Turbulences et changements institutionnels au sein de la Société internationale : une perspective historique

Turbulences et changements institutionnels au sein de la Société internationale : une perspective historique Cette recherche puise ses origines du constat que la présente société internationale apparaît plus que jamais mal outillée et en perte de légitimité pour gérer les nouveaux déséquilibres qui ébranlent sa sécurité. Nous voulons vérifier si les présentes difficultés à gérer l’ordre interétatique sont des signes précurseurs d’une période de turbulences systémiques qui ébranleraient ses fondations. Nous avançons comme principale hypothèse de recherche qu’une perte de légitimité dans les mécanismes d’ordre d’une société westphalienne engendre une période plus ou moins longue de turbulences systémiques, provoquant un retour à l’antihégémonie caractérisée par l’établissement d’un nouvel ordre sociétal. Pour vérifier cette hypothèse, nous nous associons au cadre théorique de l’École anglaise qui analyse les relations interétatiques en qualifiant le caractère de l’ordre qui les gouverne. Ses adeptes y parviennent en étudiant les forces qui engendrent le maintien d’un environnement international antihégémonique, ainsi que la nature des réciprocités interétatiques qui s’en dégage. Ainsi, en observant les diverses institutions créées pour gérer l’ordre, ils sont en mesure de mieux comprendre l’évolution, la diffusion et la pérennisation de l’établissement d’une société des États. Cette approche nous a permis de construire un modèle explicatif pour notre dynamique sociétale. Par la suite, afin de répondre à notre questionnement initial, nous proposons d’analyser le statut de diverses sociétés internationales lors d’époques caractérisées par une période systémique de grands chaos, suivie du retour d’un régime sociétal. Nous cherchons à établir si des analogies peuvent être faites sur leur processus de transformation pour, par la suite, vérifier si elles peuvent s’appliquer à la nature du changement qui s’opère dans la présente société internationale. L’analyse historique comparative s’avère un instrument tout désigné pour ce type de recherche. Les époques sélectionnées pour notre recherche couvrent la Guerre de Trente Ans, les Guerres napoléoniennes et la Première Guerre mondiale. La nature antihégémonique d’une société des États, en plus de maintenir un environnement anarchique, crée un climat de rivalités qui entraîne un processus de transformations dans la dynamique de l’ordre. Ce facteur de changement fut introduit sous le concept de progrès sociétal, lequel engendre une désuétude institutionnelle dans les mécanismes de l’ordre sociétal, pouvant entraîner une période de turbulences systémiques. Ainsi, pour mieux observer ce phénomène, nous avons adopté les institutions comme outils d’analyse. Elles nous permettent d’être plus critiques des phénomènes observés, tout en nous autorisant à les comparer entre elles, en raison de leur longévité. Nos recherches révèlent la pérennité d’une dynamique de transformation au sein des sociétés westphaliennes, dont la nature entraîne des déséquilibres sociétaux qui varient selon son intensité. Nous observons aussi que, malgré l’égalité légale que confère la souveraineté aux États, les Grandes puissances sont les principaux artisans d’un système international. Leur aptitude à l’unilatéralisme fut souvent associée à l’émergence de turbulences systémiques. Nos recherches montrent que l’interdépendance et la coopération interétatique sont aussi alimentées par la diffusion et le partage d’une économie libérale. C’est aussi cette même interdépendance qui, progressivement, rend la guerre entre Grandes puissances désuète. Plus l’interdépendance et le multilatéralisme s’intensifient dans un environnement sociétal, plus le progrès sociétal a tendance à se manifester sous les aspects d’une transformation systémique progressive (non violente) plutôt que révolutionnaire (période de turbulences systémiques). La présente société internationale est sous l’influence du progrès sociétal depuis son avènement. Sa stabilité est directement liée à la capacité de ses mécanismes d’ordre à contrer les déséquilibres que le progrès engendre, ainsi qu’à l’aptitude de ses Grandes puissances à limiter leur propension à l’unilatéralisme. Donc, ces mécanismes doivent pouvoir intégrer le progrès pour maintenir leur légitimité et éviter d’engendrer une période de turbulences systémiques.

Embedding objects into Matlab/Simulink for process supervision

This paper introduces how artificial intelligence technologies can be integrated into a known computer aided control system design (CACSD) framework, Matlab/Simulink, using an object oriented approach. The aim is to build a framework to aid supervisory systems analysis, design and implementation. The idea is to take advantage of an existing CACSD framework, Matlab/Simulink, so that engineers can proceed: first to design a control system, and then to design a straightforward supervisory system of the control system in the same framework. Thus, expert systems and qualitative reasoning tools are incorporated into this popular CACSD framework to develop a computer aided supervisory system design (CASSD) framework. Object-variables an introduced into Matlab/Simulink for sharing information between tools

Análisis del Espacio Schengen en materia de seguridad como base para la implementación del Protocolo sobre la Facilitación del Movimiento de Personas de la Comunidad para el Desarrollo de África Austral (SADC)

El fin de la Guerra Fría supuso no sólo el triunfo del capitalismo y de la democracia liberal, sino un cambio significativo en el Sistema Internacional; siendo menos centralizado y más regionalizado, como consecuencia de la proximidad y relaciones de interdependencia entre sus actores (no sólo Estados) y permitiendo la formación de Complejos Regionales de Seguridad (CRS). Los CRS son una forma efectiva de relacionarse y aproximarse a la arena internacional pues a través de sus procesos de securitización y desecuritización consiguen lograr objetivos específicos. Partiendo de ello, tanto la Unión Europea (UE) como la Comunidad para el Desarrollo de África Austral (SADC) iniciaron varios procesos de securitización relacionados con la integración regional; siendo un ejemplo de ello la eliminación de los controles en sus fronteras interiores o libre circulación de personas; pues consideraron que de no hacerse realidad, ello generaría amenazas políticas (su influencia y capacidad de actuación estaban amenazadas), económicas (en cuanto a su competitividad y niveles básicos de bienestar) y societales (en cuanto a la identidad de la comunidad como indispensable para la integración) que pondrían en riesgo la existencia misma de sus CRS. En esta medida, la UE creó el Espacio Schengen, que fue producto de un proceso de securitización desde inicios de la década de los 80 hasta mediados de la década de los 90; y la SADC se encuentra inmersa en tal proceso de securitización desde 1992 hasta la actualidad y espera la ratificación del Protocolo para la Facilitación del Movimiento de personas como primer paso para lograr la eliminación de controles en sus fronteras interiores. Si bien tanto la UE como la SADC consideraron que de no permitir la libre circulación de personas, su integración y por lo tanto, sus CRS estaban en riesgo; la SADC no lo ha logrado. Ello hace indispensable hacer un análisis más profundo de sus procesos de securitización para así encontrar sus falencias con respecto al éxito de la UE. El análisis está basado en la Teoría de los Complejos de Seguridad de Barry Buzan, plasmada en la obra Security a New Framework for Analysis (1998) de Barry Buzan, Ole Waever y Jaap de Wilde y será dividido en cada una de las etapas del proceso de securitización: la identificación de una amenaza existencial a un objeto referente a través de un acto discursivo, la aceptación de una amenaza por parte de una audiencia relevante y las acciones de emergencia para hacer frente a las amenazas existenciales; reconociendo las diferencias y similitudes de un proceso de securitización exitoso frente a otro que aún no lo ha sido.