On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Financial development, financial fragility and growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility(namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affect economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP)and investments. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 93 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it spurs capital accumulation only with some delay and indirectly, since capital follows the rise in productivity. I control for indirect effects of financial globalization through banking crises. Such episodes depress both investments and TFP, though they are triggered by financial integration only to a minor extent. The paper also provides a discussion of a simple model on the effects of financial integration, and shows additional empirical evidence supporting it.

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Allergo-immunologie. 1. Nouveautés dans le traitement des crises aiguës d'angioedème héréditaire [Allergy-immunology. New therapies for acute attacks in hereditary angioedema].

Hereditary angioedema is a disease which develops as a result of a deficiency or dysfonction of C1-inhibitor, a key regulator of the complement, coagulation and contact cascades, resulting among others in excessive release of bradykinin. This disease mortality rate is high in absence of immediate and effective treatment, in particular in presence of acute attacks of the upper respiratory tract (laryngeal edema). Until now only administration of a purified C1-inhibitor extract was effective against these symptoms. This paper aims to synthesise essentials knowledge concerning news drugs, in particular icatibant, a selective bradykinin B2- receptor antagonist whose use should be widened to the treatment of angioedema with ACE-inhibitors intolerance.

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and lowspreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising theirdeficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocatedfrom the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions evenfurther. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debtcan be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discriminationand crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereigndebt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This providesincentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowingis limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productiveinvestment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead toself-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countriesin the Eurozone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.

Ammonia-induced toxicity in developing brain cells and strategies for neuroprotection

RESUME L'hyperammonémie est particulièrement toxique pour le cerveau des jeunes patients et entraîne une atrophie corticale, un élargissement des ventricules et des défauts de myélinisation, responsables de retards mentaux et développementaux. Les traitements actuels se limitent à diminuer le plus rapidement possible le taux d'ammoniaque dans l'organisme. L'utilisation de traitements neuroprotecteurs pendant les crises d'hyperammonémie permettrait de contrecarrer les effets neurologiques de l'ammoniaque et de prévenir l'apparition des troubles neurologiques. Au cours de cette thèse, nous avons testé trois stratégies de neuroprotection sur des cultures de cellules en agrégats issues du cortex d'embryons de rats et traitées à l'ammoniaque. - Nous avons tout d'abord testé si l'inhibition de protéines intracellulaires impliquées dans le déclenchement de la mort cellulaire pouvait protéger les cellules de la toxicité de l'ammoniaque. Nous avons montré que L'exposition à l'ammoniaque altérait la viabilité des neurones et des oligodendrocytes, et activait les caspases, la calpaïne et la kinase-5 dépendante des cyclines (cdk5) associée à son activateur p25. Alors que l'inhibition pharmacologique des caspases et de la calpaïne n'a pas permis de protéger les cellules cérébrales, un inhibiteur de la cdk5, appelé roscovitine, a réduit significativement la mort neuronale. L'inhibition de la cdk5 semble donc être une stratégie thérapeutique prometteuse pour prévenir 1es effets toxiques de 1'ammoniaque sur les neurones. - Nous avons ensuite étudié les mécanismes neuroprotecteurs déclenchés par le cerveau en réponse à la toxicité de l'ammoniaque. Nous avons montré que l'ammoniaque induisait la synthèse du facteur neurotrophique ciliaire (CNTF) par les astrocytes, via l'activation de la protéine kinase (MIAPK) p38. D'autre part, l'ajout de CNTF a permis de protéger les oligodendrocytes mais pas les neurones des cultures exposées à l'ammoniaque, via les voies de signalisations JAK/STAT, SAPK/JNK et c-jun. - Dans une dernière partie, nous avons voulu contrecarrer, par l'ajout de créatine, le déficit énergétique cérébral induit par l'ammoniaque. La créatine a permis de protéger des cellules de type astrocytaire mais pas les cellules cérébrales en agrégats. Cette thèse amis en évidence que les stratégies de neuroprotection chez les patients hyperammonémiques nécessiteront de cibler plusieurs voies de signalisation afin de protéger tous les types cellulaires du cerveau. Summary : In pediatric patients, hyperammonemia is mainly caused by urea cycle disorders or other inborn errors of metabolism, and leads to neurological injury with cortical atrophy, ventricular enlargement and demyelination. Children rescued from neonatal hyperammonemia show significant risk of mental retardation and developmental disabilities. The mainstay of therapy is limited to ammonia lowering through dietary restriction and alternative pathway treatments. However, the possibility of using treatments in a neuroprotective goal may be useful to improve the neurological outcome of patients. Thus, the main objective of this work was to investigate intracellular and extracellular signaling pathways altered by ammonia tonicity, so as to identify new potential therapeutic targets. Experiments were conducted in reaggregated developing brain cell cultures exposed to ammonia, as a model for the developing CNS of hyperammonemic young patients. Theses strategies of neuroprotection were tested: - The first strategy consisted in inhibiting intracellular proteins triggering cell death. Our data indicated that ammonia exposure altered the viability of neurons and oligodendrocytes. Apoptosis and proteins involved in the trigger of apoptosis, such as caspases, calpain and cyclin-dependent kinase-5 (cdk5) with its activator p25, were activated by ammonia exposure. While caspases and calpain inhibitors exhibited no protective effects, roscovitine, a cdk5 inhibitor, reduced ammonia-induced neuronal death. This work revealed that inhibition of cdk5 seems a promising strategy to prevent the toxic effects of ammonia on neurons. - The second strategy consisted in mimicking, the endogenous protective mechanisms triggered by ammonia in the brain. Ammonia exposure caused an increase of the ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF) expression, through the activation of the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) in astrocytes. Treatment of cultures exposed to ammonia with exogenous CNTF demonstrated strong protective effects on oligodendrocytes but not on neurons. These protective effects seemed to involve JAK/STAT, SAPK/JNK and c-jun proteins. - The third strategy consisted in preventing the ammonia-induced cerebral energy deficit with creatine. Creatine treatment protected the survival of astrocyte-like cells through MAPKs pathways. In contrast, it had no protective effects in reaggregated developing brain cell cultures exposed to ammonia. The present study suggests that neuroprotective strategies should optimally be directed at multiple targets to prevent ammonia-induced alterations of the different brain cell types.

Benthic macroinvertebrates assemblages and macrohabitat connectivity in Mediterranean-climate streams of northern California

Abstract. Drought leads to a loss of longitudinal and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which causes direct or indirect changes in stream ecosystem properties. Changes in macrohabitat availability from a rifflepool sequence to isolated pools are among the most conspicuous consequences of connectivity loss. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were compared among 3 distinct stream macrohabitats (riffles [R], pools connected to riffles [Pc], disconnected pools [Pd]) of 19 Mediterranean-climate sites in northern California to examine the influence of loss of habitat resulting from drought disturbance. At the time of sampling, 10 sites were perennial and included R and Pc macrohabitats, whereas 9 sites were intermittent and included only Pd macrohabitats. Taxa richness was more variable in Pd, and taxa richness was significantly lower in Pd than in Pc but not R. These results suggested a decline in richness between Pc and Pd that might be associated with loss of connectivity. Lower Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness relative to Odonata, Coleoptera, and Heteroptera (OCH) richness was observed for Pd than R and Pc macrohabitats. Family composition was more similar between R and Pc than between R or Pc and Pd macrohabitats. This similarity may be associated with greater connectivity between R and Pc macrohabitats. Correspondence analysis indicated that macroinvertebrate composition changed along a gradient from R to Pc and Pd that was related to a perennialintermittent gradient across sites. High variability among macroinvertebrate assemblages in Pd could have been related to variability in the duration of intermittency. In cluster analysis, macroinvertebrate assemblages were grouped by macrohabitat first and then by site, suggesting that the macrohabitat filter had a greater influence on macroinvertebrate assemblages than did local site characteristics. Few taxa were found exclusively in Pc, and this macrohabitat shared numerous taxa with R and Pd, indicating that Pc may act as a bridge between R and Pd during drought. Drought is regarded as a ramp disturbance, but our results suggest that the response of macroinvertebrate assemblages to the loss of hydrological connectivity among macrohabitats is gradual, at least in Mediterranean-climate streams where drying is gradual. However, the changes may be more dramatic in arid and semiarid streams or in Mediterranean-climate streams if drying is rapid.

A global marine sedimentary response to the end-Permian mass extinction: Examples from southern Turkey and the western United States

The end-Permian mass extinction greatly diminished marine diversity and brought about a whole-scale restructuring of marine ecosystems; these ecosystem changes also profoundly affected the sedimentary record. Data presented here, attained through facies analyses of strata deposited during the immediate aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction (southern Turkey) and at the close of the Early Triassic (southwestern United States), in combination with a literature review, show that sedimentary systems were profoundly affected by: (1) a reduction in biotic diversity and abundance and (2) long-term environmental fluctuations that resulted from the end-Permian crisis. Lower Triassic strata display widespread microbialite and carbonate seafloor fan development and contain indicators of suppressed infaunal bioturbation such as flat-pebble conglomerates and wrinkle structures (facies considered unusual in post-Cambrian subtidal deposits). Our observations suggest that depositional systems, too, respond to biotic crises, and that certain facies may act as barometers of ecologic and environmental change independent of fossil assemblage analyses. Close investigation of facies changes during other critical times in Earth history may serve as an important tool in interpreting the ecology of metazoans and their environment.

Crises non épileptiques psychogènes: le défi des troubles fonctionnels en neurologie

Psychogenic non epileptic seizures (PNES) look like epilepsy, but are not accompanied by the electrophysiological alterations found in epilepsy. The diagnosis requires a complex process at the interface between neurology and psychiatry. Diagnostic restitution to the patient and treatment of the condition should be a collaboration between neurologist and psychiatrist including as much as possible a general practitioner. Vulnerability and triggering psycho-social factors, as well as frequent psychiatric co morbidity implicate that psychiatric-psychological care is needed in a majority of situations, however this cannot be done without a strong "somatic back-up" with rapid access to somatic facility for advice and care when needed. The neurological presentation of the disease, with psychiatric causes underlying the condition, bear the risk for the patient that neither neurological nor psychiatric care is offered. Current knowledge about the condition is still scarce, but the field is progressively enriched by studies with stronger methodologies. Recent neuroimaging studies open fascinating avenues on our understanding of the interplay between emotional regulation, representation of the self, and dissociative symptoms. These new avenues help our understanding of these disorders which challenge classical frontiers between neurology and psychiatry. In this paper we try to formulate a framework for the care of patient with dissociative disorders including NEPS.

Journalistic practice in risk and crisis situations: Significant examples from Spain

In a democratic society, the media are central to the communication of risks and uncertainties to the public. This article presents 10 proposals for improving media coverage in social risk situations. The article focuses on the production logic of the media and its consequences for society. The proposals and the conclusions of this research are supported by an analysis of three Spanish cases: the risk implied by the Tarragona chemical complex (one of the biggest in Europe); the terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in Madrid; and the Carmel tunnel disaster in Barcelona on January 2005. The authors are participating in a research project on public perception of risk funded by the Spanish Education Ministry on public perception of risk (2004–2007 and 2007–2010).

Carbon-isotope stratigraphy and ammonite faunal turnover for the Middle Jurassic in the Southern Iberian palaeomargin

Variations in the stable carbon-isotope ratio of marine and continental sediments can reflect changes in sink and flux modifications of the palaeocarbon cycle. Here we report carbon-isotope compositions of Middle Jurassic marine carbonates from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain), which represents an ideal region to link the stable carbon-isotope curves directly to ammonite zones and subzones, and thereby for the first time achieve an accurate chronostratigraphic calibration. The five sections studied represent basin and high swell deposits of the Southern Iberian palaeomargin. We find a similar delta C-13 of carbonates between different oceanic areas, suggesting a homogeneous carbon-isotope oceanic reservoir through the Middle Jurassic. The Aalenian-Bajocian transition is a critical period in ammonite evolution; hence the Early Jurassic fauna are replaced by new ammonite families which become dominant throughout the Middle and Late Jurassic. For this reason, we compared the delta C-13 values of carbonates with ammonite diversity and extinction rates at different taxonomical levels in order to explore the possible relationship between the carbon cycle and ammonite evolution. The carbon-isotope values of carbonates are not exactly linearly correlated with the extinction rate and ammonite diversity, but the main faunal turnovers follow minimum delta C-13 values, where extinct taxa are replaced by new ones. Likewise, radiation episodes are associated with increasing delta C-13 values and with transgressive sea-level rise. All these data support the idea that perturbations in the global carbon cycle reflect rapid palaeoenvironmental changes. We made detailed analyses of these faunal turnovers, using them as a proxy to identify major palaeoenvironmental crises in their ecosystems forced by modification in the carbon cycle. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Image Resilience after Multiple Crises : The Case of Switzerland in the United States

In der heutigen Welt sind die Reputation und das Image eines Landes als wichtige Faktoren für den wirtschaftlichen und politischen Erfolg angesehen. Jedoch ist die Pflege der Marke eines Landes komplex und führt zu zwei Positionen, die sich potentiell widersprechen: Einerseits kann ein positives Erscheinungsbild eines Landes durch aktive Massnahmen gefördert werden. Andererseits ist es schwierig, das Bild eines Landes abzugrenzen und es ist mit Klischees behaftet. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Auswirkungen von zwei grösseren Krisen auf das Image der Schweiz in den Vereinigten Staaten: die Krise um die nachrichtenlosen Vermögen aus der Zeit des 2. Weltkriegs im Jahr 2000 sowie die Krise um die UBS und das Bankgeheimnis im Jahr 2009. Die Studie zeigt, dass das Erscheinungsbild der Schweiz unberührt blieb, obwohl ein beachtlicher Teil der Bevölkerung und der Meinungsführer von beiden Krisen wusste. Dies stützt die Hypothese, dass das Image eines Landes eine hohe Beständigkeit aufweist. In today's world, country's reputation and image have become key issues, widely believed to be success factors both economically and politically. Nevertheless, managing a country's brand is complex and leads to two positions that are potentially contradictory: On the one hand, a country's image can be influenced either by promotional activities. On the other hand, a country's image is a construct that is very difficult to delimit and is highly stereotyped. This contribution study the impact of two major crises on the image of Switzerland in the United States: the unclaimed wartime deposits crisis in 2000 and the UBS and banking secrecy crisis in 2009. It shows that despite the fact that a substantial proportion of the public and of opinion leaders was aware of both crises, the image of Switzerland was unaffected, which tends to support the hypothesis of strong stability of a country's image.

Systematics and phylogeography of the Dysdera erythrina species complex (Araneae, Dysderidae) in Sardinia

Sardinia is the second largest island in the Mediterranean and, together with Corsica and nearby mainland areas, one of the top biodiversity hotspots in the region. The origin of Sardinia traces back to the opening of the western Mediterranean in the late Oligocene. This geological event and the subsequent Messinian Salinity Crisis and Pleistocene glacial cycles have had a major impact on local biodiversity. The Dysdera woodlouse hunter spiders are one of the most diverse ground-dweller groups in the Mediterranean. Here we describe the first two species of this genus endemic to Sardinia: Dysdera jana sp. n. and Dysdera shardana sp. n. The two species show contrasting allopatric distribution: D. jana sp. n. is a narrow endemic while D. shardana sp. n. is distributed throughout most of the island. A multi-gene DNA sequence phylogenetic analys based on mitochondrial and nuclear genes supports the close relationships of the new species to the type species of the genus Dysdera erythrina. Age estimates reject Oligocene origin of the new Dysdera species and identify the Messinian Salinity Crises as the most plausible period for the split between Sardinian endemics and their closest relatives. Phylogeographic analysis reveals deep genetic divergences and population structure in Dysdera shardana sp. n., suggesting that restriction to gene flow probably due to environmental factors could explain local speciation events. Taxonomy, phylogeny, DNA sequencing, Mediterranean biogeography, phylogeography