Wave height analysis from 10 years of observations in the Norwegian Sea

Large waves pose risks to ships, offshore structures, coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. During the period 2000 to 2009, surface elevation was recorded every 0.59 s during sampling periods of 30 min. The Hmax observations scale linearly with Hs on average. A widely-used empirical Weibull distribution is found to estimate average values of Hmax/Hs and Hmax better than a Rayleigh distribution, but tends to underestimate both for all but the smallest waves. In this paper we propose a modified Rayleigh distribution which compensates for the heterogeneity of the observed dataset: the distribution is fitted to the whole dataset and improves the estimate of the largest waves. Over the 10-year period, the Weibull distribution approximates the observed Hs and Hmax well, and an exponential function can be used to predict the probability distribution function of the ratio Hmax/Hs. However, the Weibull distribution tends to underestimate the occurrence of extremely large values of Hs and Hmax. The persistence of Hs and Hmax in winter is also examined. Wave fields with Hs>12 m and Hmax>16 m do not last longer than 3 h. Low-to-moderate wave heights that persist for more than 12 h dominate the relationship of the wave field with the winter NAO index over 2000–2009. In contrast, the inter-annual variability of wave fields with Hs>5.5 m or Hmax>8.5 m and wave fields persisting over ~2.5 days is not associated with the winter NAO index.

Motor imagery induced EEG patterns in spinal cord injury patients and their impact on Brain-Computer Interface accuracy

OBJECTIVE: Assimilating the diagnosis complete spinal cord injury (SCI) takes time and is not easy, as patients know that there is no 'cure' at the present time. Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) can facilitate daily living. However, inter-subject variability demands measurements with potential user groups and an understanding of how they differ to healthy users BCIs are more commonly tested with. Thus, a three-class motor imagery (MI) screening (left hand, right hand, feet) was performed with a group of 10 able-bodied and 16 complete spinal-cord-injured people (paraplegics, tetraplegics) with the objective of determining what differences were present between the user groups and how they would impact upon the ability of these user groups to interact with a BCI. APPROACH: Electrophysiological differences between patient groups and healthy users are measured in terms of sensorimotor rhythm deflections from baseline during MI, electroencephalogram microstate scalp maps and strengths of inter-channel phase synchronization. Additionally, using a common spatial pattern algorithm and a linear discriminant analysis classifier, the classification accuracy was calculated and compared between groups. MAIN RESULTS: It is seen that both patient groups (tetraplegic and paraplegic) have some significant differences in event-related desynchronization strengths, exhibit significant increases in synchronization and reach significantly lower accuracies (mean (M) = 66.1%) than the group of healthy subjects (M = 85.1%). SIGNIFICANCE: The results demonstrate significant differences in electrophysiological correlates of motor control between healthy individuals and those individuals who stand to benefit most from BCI technology (individuals with SCI). They highlight the difficulty in directly translating results from healthy subjects to participants with SCI and the challenges that, therefore, arise in providing BCIs to such individuals.

The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. It follows that the uncertainty in cold-season Mediterranean precipitation projection will not be narrowed unless the uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response is reduced.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021–2060 and 2061–2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

Examining the relationships between Holocene climate change, hydrology, and human society in Ireland

This thesis explores human-environment interactions during the Mid-Late Holocene in raised bogs in central Ireland. The raised bogs of central Ireland are widely-recognised for their considerable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological resources: research over the past few decades has established the potential for such sites to preserve sensitive records of Holocene climatic variability expressed as changes in bog surface wetness (BSW); meanwhile archaeological investigations over the past century have uncovered hundreds of peatland archaeological features dating from the Neolithic through to the Post-Medieval period including wooden trackways, platforms, and deposits of high-status metalwork. Previous studies have attempted to explore the relationship between records of past environmental change and the occurrence of peatland archaeological sites reaching varying conclusions. More recently, environmentally-deterministic models of human-environment interaction in Irish raised bogs at the regional scale have been explicitly tested leading to the conclusion that there is no relationship between BSW and past human activity. These relationships are examined in more detail on a site-by-site basis in this thesis. To that end, testate amoebae-derived BSW records from nine milled former raised bogs in central Ireland were produced from sites with known and dated archaeological records. Relationships between BSW records and environmental conditions within the study area were explored through both the development of a new central Ireland testate amoebae transfer function and through comparisons between recent BSW records and instrumental weather data. Compilation of BSW records from the nine fossil study sites show evidence both for climate forcing, particularly during 3200-2400 cal BP, as well as considerable inter-site variability. Considerable inter-site variability was also evident in the archaeological records of the same sites. Whilst comparisons between BSW and archaeological records do not show a consistent linear relationship, examination of records on a site-by-site basis were shown to reveal interpretatively important contingent relationships. It is concluded therefore, that future research on human-environment interactions should focus on individual sites and should utilise theoretical approaches from the humanities in order to avoid the twin pitfalls of masking important local patterns of change, and of environmental determinism.

A quantitative TaqMan PCR assay for the detection of Mycoplasma suis

Aim: To develop a TaqMan probe-based, highly sensitive and specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the detection and quantification of Mycoplasma suis in the blood of pigs. Methods and Results: Primers and probes specific to Myc. suis 16S rRNA gene were designed. The qPCR assay`s specificity, detection limit, intra- and inter-assay variability were evaluated and its performance was compared with a Myc. suis conventional PCR assay (cPCR). Blood of two experimentally infected pigs, 40 Indiana pigs, 40 Brazilian sows and 28 peccaries were tested. The assay detected as few as ten copies of Myc. suis plasmids and was 100-fold more sensitive than the cPCR. No cross-reactivity with nontarget pig mycoplasmas was observed. An average of 1.62 x 10(11) and 2.75 x 10(8) target copies ml(-1) of blood were detected in the acutely and chronically infected pigs, respectively. Three (7.5%) pigs and 32 (80.0%) sows were positive while all peccaries were negative for Myc. suis. Conclusion: The developed qPCR assay is highly sensitive and specific for Myc. suis detection and quantification. Significance and Impact of the Study: TaqMan qPCR is an accurate and quick test for detection of Myc. suis infected pigs, which can be used on varied instrumentation platforms.

Discrepancies in solar irradiation data for Stockholm and Athens

The aim of this study is to evaluate the variation of solar radiation data between different data sources that will be free and available at the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). The comparison between data sources will be carried out for two locations: Stockholm, Sweden and Athens, Greece. For the desired locations, data is gathered for different tilt angles: 0°, 30°, 45°, 60° facing south. The full dataset is available in two excel files: “Stockholm annual irradiation” and “Athens annual irradiation”. The World Radiation Data Center (WRDC) is defined as a reference for the comparison with other dtaasets, because it has the highest time span recorded for Stockholm (1964–2010) and Athens (1964–1986), in form of average monthly irradiation, expressed in kWh/m2. The indicator defined for the data comparison is the estimated standard deviation. The mean biased error (MBE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) were also used as statistical indicators for the horizontal solar irradiation data. The variation in solar irradiation data is categorized in two categories: natural or inter-annual variability, due to different data sources and lastly due to different calculation models. The inter-annual variation for Stockholm is 140.4kWh/m2 or 14.4% and 124.3kWh/m2 or 8.0% for Athens. The estimated deviation for horizontal solar irradiation is 3.7% for Stockholm and 4.4% Athens. This estimated deviation is respectively equal to 4.5% and 3.6% for Stockholm and Athens at 30° tilt, 5.2% and 4.5% at 45° tilt, 5.9% and 7.0% at 60°. NASA’s SSE, SAM and RETScreen (respectively Satel-light) exhibited the highest deviation from WRDC’s data for Stockholm (respectively Athens). The essential source for variation is notably the difference in horizontal solar irradiation. The variation increases by 1-2% per degree of tilt, using different calculation models, as used in PVSYST and Meteonorm. The location and altitude of the data source did not directly influence the variation with the WRDC data. Further examination is suggested in order to improve the methodology of selecting the location; Examining the functional dependence of ground reflected radiation with ambient temperature; variation of ambient temperature and its impact on different solar energy systems; Im pact of variation in solar irradiation and ambient temperature on system output.

Concordância no diagnóstico radiológico da doença respiratória aguda baixa em crianças

Objetivo: Estudar a concordância no diagnóstico radiológico da doença respiratória aguda baixa (DRAB) em crianças. Métodos: Sessenta radiogramas do tórax de crianças menores de cinco anos foram avaliados, individualmente, por três médicos: um radiologista pediátrico (RP), um pneumologista pediatra (PP) e 1 pediatra experiente no atendimento de sala de emergências (PE). Todas as crianças tinham procurado atendimento por apresentar um quadro agudo de infecção respiratória com aparente participação pulmonar. Os avaliadores desconheciam os diagnósticos originais, mas receberam uma ficha padrão com dados clínicos e laboratoriais dos pacientes no momento da consulta inicial. Variáveis: Agrupadas em cinco categorias: a) qualidade técnica do filme; b) localização da alteração; c) padrões radiográficos; d) outras alterações radiográficas; e) diagnóstico. Análise Estatística: Para estudar a concordância entre as três duplas posíveis de observadores, utilizou-se a estatística de Kappa, aceitándo-se os valores ajustados para viés de prevalência (PABAK). Resultados: Os valores Kappa totais de cada dupla de observadores (RP x PP, RP x PE e PP x PE) foram 0.41, 0.43, e 0.39 respectivamente, o que representa em média, uma concordância interobservadores moderada (0.41). Outras variáveis: “qualidade técnica” teve uma concordância regular (0.30); com “localização”, foi moderada (0.48); com “padrões radiográficos” foi regular (0.29); com “outras alterações radiográficas” foi moderada (0,43); e com “diagnóstico”, regular (0.33). Quanto à concordância global intraobservadores, a mesma foi moderada (0.54), com valores menores dos descritos na literatura. Conclusões: A variabilidade interobservadores é inerente à interpretação dos achados radiológicos, e determinar o diagnóstico exato da DRAB nas crianças tem seus desafíos. Nossos resultados foram similares aos descritos na literatura.

Cytogenetic analysis of B chromosomes in one population of the fish Moenkhausia sanctaefilomenae (Steindachner, 1907) (Teleostei, Characiformes)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relationship between running intensity, muscle activation, and stride kinematics during an incremental protocol

Objective: To analyze the effect of running intensity on stride length (SL), stride frequency (SF), stride time (ST) and the electromyographic signal of the rectus femoris (RF), vastus lateralis (VL), vastus medialis (VM), tibialis anterior (TA), biceps femoris (BF) and gastrocnemius lateralis (GL) muscles. Methods: Nine well-trained runners performed an incremental protocol with an initial velocity of 10km.h-1, and increments of 1km.h-1 every 3minutes until exhaustion. The electromyographic activity, SL, SF, ST, inter-stride coefficient of variation, and association between kinematic and electromyographic parameters were calculated at 60%, 80% and 100% of maximum running velocity. Results: SL, SF and electromyographic activity of the RF, VM, VL and GL increased and the ST decreased with increased running speed. Electromyographic variability of VL and VM was higher than GL, and variability was lower in TA than all other muscles. The inter-stride variability of muscle activation was associated with kinematic parameters, and their variability, differently as running speed increased. Conclusion: The incremental protocol increased electromyographic activity differently among lower limb muscles; increased SF and SL, and decreased ST, without changing the variability of these variables. Muscle activation variability was correlated with kinematic parameters, but the relationships among these measures varied with running intensity. © 2013 .

Variabilidade genética e variação das regiões heterocromáticas em linhagens de Triatoma infestans (Heteroptera : Reduviidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of the interfacial area measurement parameters on the push-out strength between fiber post and dentin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variabilidade entre materiais genéticos de eucalyptus spp quanto à distribuição de raízes finas em latossolos profundos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparação entre índices dinâmicos e volumétricos de pré-carga em cães submetidos à hemorragia moderada seguida de reposição volêmica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)