A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

An integrated framework for theories of individual attitudes toward technology

Theories of individual attitudes toward IT include task technology fit (TTF), technology acceptance model (TAM), unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT), cognitive fit, expectation disconfirmation, and computer self-efficacy. Examination of these theories reveals three main concerns. First, the theories mostly ‘‘black box’’ (or omit) the IT artifact. Second, appropriate mid-range theory is not developed to contribute to disciplinary progress and to serve the needs of our practitioner community. Third, theories are overlapping but incommensurable. We propose a theoretical framework that harmonizes these attitudinal theories and shows how they can be specialized to include relevant IS phenomenon.

An integrated mathematical approach to measure the capacity of MMTS

This article focusses upon multi-modal transportation systems (MMTS) and the issues surrounding the determination of system capacity. For that purpose a multi-objective framework is advocated that integrates all the different modes and many different competing capacity objectives. This framework is analytical in nature and facilitates a variety of capacity querying and capacity expansion planning.

Integrated sustainable irrigation planning with multiobjective Fuzzy optimization approach

Multiobjective fuzzy methodology is applied to a case study of Khadakwasla complex irrigation project located near Pune city of Maharashtra State, India. Three objectives, namely, maximization of net benefits, crop production and labour employment are considered. Effect of reuse of wastewater on the planning scenario is also studied. Three membership functions, namely, nonlinear, hyperbolic and exponential are analyzed for multiobjective fuzzy optimization. In the present study, objective functions are considered as fuzzy in nature whereas inflows are considered as dependable. It is concluded that exponential and hyperbolic membership functions provided similar cropping pattern for most of the situations whereas nonlinear membership functions provided different cropping pattern. However, in all the three cases, irrigation intensities are more than the existing irrigation intensity.

LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS MODELING THROUGH INTEGRATED MARKOV, FUZZY-AHP AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA

Multi temporal land use information were derived using two decades remote sensing data and simulated for 2012 and 2020 with Cellular Automata (CA) considering scenarios, change probabilities (through Markov chain) and Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE). Agents and constraints were considered for modeling the urbanization process. Agents were nornmlized through fiizzyfication and priority weights were assigned through Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) pairwise comparison for each factor (in MCE) to derive behavior-oriented rules of transition for each land use class. Simulation shows a good agreement with the classified data. Fuzzy and AHP helped in analyzing the effects of agents of growth clearly and CA-Markov proved as a powerful tool in modelling and helped in capturing and visualizing the spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization. This provided rapid land evaluation framework with the essential insights of the urban trajectory for effective sustainable city planning.

New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model

48 p.

An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development

Firms and other organizations use Technology Roadmapping (TRM) extensively as a framework for supporting research and development of future technologies and products that could sustain a competitive advantage. While the importance of technology strategy has received more attention in recent years, few research studies have examined how roadmapping processes are used to explore the potential convergence of products and services that may be developed in the future. The aim of this paper is to introduce an integrated roadmapping process for services, devices and technologies capable of implementing a smart city development R&D project in Korea. The paper applies a QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method to establish interconnections between services and devices, and between devices and technologies. The method is illustrated by a detailed case study, which shows how different types of roadmap can be coordinated with each other to produce a clear representation of the technological changes and uncertainties associated with the strategic planning of complex innovations. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.