Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study

Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.

Dynamic scaling of bred vectors in spatially extended chaotic systems

We unfold a profound relationship between the dynamics of finite-size perturbations in spatially extended chaotic systems and the universality class of Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ). We show how this relationship can be exploited to obtain a complete theoretical description of the bred vectors dynamics. The existence of characteristic length/time scales, the spatial extent of spatial correlations and how to time it, and the role of the breeding amplitude are all analyzed in the light of our theory. Implications to weather forecasting based on ensembles of initial conditions are also discussed.

Indian Ocean-monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts

Monsoon droughts over the Indian subcontinent emanate from failures in the seasonal (June-September) monsoon rains. While prolonged dry-spells ("monsoon-breaks'') pervade on sub-seasonal/intra-seasonal time-scales, the underlying causes for these long-lasting anomalies remain elusive. Based on analyses of a suite of observed data sets, we report an ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling on intra-seasonal time-scales, in the tropical Indian Ocean, which is pivotal in forcing extended monsoon-breaks and causing droughts over the subcontinent. This coupling involves a feedback between the monsoonal flow and thermocline depth in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO), in which an anomaly of the summer monsoon circulation induces downwelling and maintains a higher-than-normal heat-content. The near-equatorial anomalies induce strong and sustained suppression of monsoon rainfall over the subcontinent. It is concluded that the intra-seasonal evolution of the ocean-monsoon coupled system is a vital key to unlocking the dynamics of monsoon droughts.

Linear and nonlinear microrheology of dense colloidal suspensions

The length and time scales accessible to optical tweezers make them an ideal tool for the examination of colloidal systems. Embedded high-refractive-index tracer particles in an index-matched hard sphere suspension provide 'handles' within the system to investigate the mechanical behaviour. Passive observations of the motion of a single probe particle give information about the linear response behaviour of the system, which can be linked to the macroscopic frequency-dependent viscous and elastic moduli of the suspension. Separate 'dragging' experiments allow observation of a sample's nonlinear response to an applied stress on a particle-by particle basis. Optical force measurements have given new data about the dynamics of phase transitions and particle interactions; an example in this study is the transition from liquid-like to solid-like behaviour, and the emergence of a yield stress and other effects attributable to nearest-neighbour caging effects. The forces needed to break such cages and the frequency of these cage breaking events are investigated in detail for systems close to the glass transition.

The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

Seasonal and interannual variability in the Mozambique Channel from moored current observations

Direct observations from an array of current meter moorings across the Mozambique Channel in the south-west Indian Ocean are presented covering a period of more than 4 years. This allows an analysis of the volume transport through the channel, including the variability on interannual and seasonal time scales. The mean volume transport over the entire observational period is 16.7 Sv poleward. Seasonal variations have a magnitude of 4.1 Sv and can be explained from the variability in the wind field over the western part of the Indian Ocean. Interannual variability has a magnitude of 8.9 Sv and is large compared to the mean. This time scale of variability could be related to variability in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), showing that it forms part of the variability in the ocean-climate system of the entire Indian Ocean. By modulating the strength of the South Equatorial Current, the weakening (strengthening) tropical gyre circulation during a period of positive (negative) IOD index leads to a weakened (strengthened) southward transport through the channel, with a time lag of about a year. The relatively strong interannual variability stresses the importance of long-term direct observations.

Relating Agulhas leakage to the Agulhas Current retroflection location

The relation between the Agulhas Current retroflection location and the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the transport of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is investigated in a high-resolution numerical ocean model. Sudden eastward retreats of the Agulhas Current retroflection loop are linearly related to the shedding of Agulhas rings, where larger retreats generate larger rings. Using numerical Lagrangian floats a 37 year time series of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage in the model is constructed. The time series exhibits large amounts of variability, both on weekly and annual time scales. A linear relation is found between the magnitude of Agulhas leakage and the location of the Agulhas Current retroflection, both binned to three month averages. In the relation, a more westward location of the Agulhas Current retroflection corresponds to an increased transport from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. When this relation is used in a linear regression and applied to almost 20 years of altimetry data, it yields a best estimate of the mean magnitude of Agulhas leakage of 13.2 Sv. The early retroflection of 2000, when Agulhas leakage was probably halved, can be identified using the regression.

Insights into processes and deposits of hazardous vulcanian explosions at Soufrière Hills Volcano during 2008 and 2009 (Montserrat, West Indies)

During the Soufrière Hills eruption, vulcanian explosions have generally occurred 1) in episodic cycles; 2) isolated during pauses in extrusion, and 3) after major collapses of the dome. In a different eruptive context, significant vulcanian explosions occurred on 29 July 2008, 3 December 2008, and 3 January 2009. Deposits are pumiceous except for the 3 December event. We reconstructed the dispersal pattern of the deposits and their textural characteristics to evaluate erupted volume and vesicularity of the magma at fragmentation. We discuss the implications of these explosions in terms of eruptive processes and chronology, and the hazards posed by their sudden and often unheralded occurrence. We suggest that overpressurization of the conduit can develop over time-scales of months to weeks by a process of self-sealing of conduit walls and/or the cooling dome by silica polymorphs. This work provides new insights for understanding the generation of hazardous vulcanian explosions at andesitic volcanoes.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Long-term relationships between environment and abundance in wheat of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola

Relationships between weather, agronomic factors and wheat disease abundance were examined to determine possible causes of variability on century time scales. In archived samples of wheat grain and leaves obtained from the Rothamsted Broadbalk experiment archive (1844-2003), amounts of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola DNA were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Relationships between amounts of pathogens and environmental and agronomic factors were examined by multiple regression. Wheat DNA decayed at approx. 1% yr(-1) in stored grain. No M. graminicola DNA was detected in grain samples. Fluctuations in amounts of P. nodorum in grain were related to changes in spring rainfall, summer temperature and national SO2 emission. Differences in amounts of P. nodorum between grain and leaf were related to summer temperature and spring rainfall. In leaves, annual variation in spring rainfall affected both pathogens similarly, but SO2 had opposite effects. Previous summer temperature had a highly significant effect on M. graminicola. Cultivar effects were significant only at P = 0.1. Long-term variation in P. nodorum and M. graminicola DNA in leaf and grain over the period 1844-2003 was dominated by factors related to national SO2 emissions. Annual variability was dominated by weather factors occurring over a period longer than the growing season.

Assembly rules for protein networks derived from phylogenetic-statistical analysis of whole genomes

Background: We report an analysis of a protein network of functionally linked proteins, identified from a phylogenetic statistical analysis of complete eukaryotic genomes. Phylogenetic methods identify pairs of proteins that co-evolve on a phylogenetic tree, and have been shown to have a high probability of correctly identifying known functional links. Results: The eukaryotic correlated evolution network we derive displays the familiar power law scaling of connectivity. We introduce the use of explicit phylogenetic methods to reconstruct the ancestral presence or absence of proteins at the interior nodes of a phylogeny of eukaryote species. We find that the connectivity distribution of proteins at the point they arise on the tree and join the network follows a power law, as does the connectivity distribution of proteins at the time they are lost from the network. Proteins resident in the network acquire connections over time, but we find no evidence that 'preferential attachment' - the phenomenon of newly acquired connections in the network being more likely to be made to proteins with large numbers of connections - influences the network structure. We derive a 'variable rate of attachment' model in which proteins vary in their propensity to form network interactions independently of how many connections they have or of the total number of connections in the network, and show how this model can produce apparent power-law scaling without preferential attachment. Conclusion: A few simple rules can explain the topological structure and evolutionary changes to protein-interaction networks: most change is concentrated in satellite proteins of low connectivity and small phenotypic effect, and proteins differ in their propensity to form attachments. Given these rules of assembly, power law scaled networks naturally emerge from simple principles of selection, yielding protein interaction networks that retain a high-degree of robustness on short time scales and evolvability on longer evolutionary time scales.

Phyloclimatic modeling: Combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling

We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.

Low genetic diversity in a marine nature reserve: re-evaluating diversity criteria in reserve design

Little consideration has been given to the genetic composition of populations associated with marine reserves, as reserve designation is generally to protect specific species, communities or habitats. Nevertheless, it is important to conserve genetic diversity since it provides the raw material for the maintenance of species diversity over longer, evolutionary time-scales and may also confer the basis for adaptation to environmental change. Many current marine reserves are small in size and isolated to some degree (e.g. sea loughs and offshore islands). While such features enable easier management, they may have important implications for the genetic structure of protected populations, the ability of populations to recover from local catastrophes and the potential for marine reserves to act as sources of propagules for surrounding areas. Here, we present a case study demonstrating genetic differentiation, isolation, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity in populations of the dogwhelk Nucella lapillus in Lough Hyne Marine Nature Reserve (an isolated sea lough in southern Ireland), compared with populations on the local adjacent open coast and populations in England, Wales and France. Our study demonstrates that this sea lough is isolated from open coast populations, and highlights that there may be long-term genetic consequences of selecting reserves on the basis of isolation and ease of protection.