Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Experimental tuberculosis: Designing a better model to test vaccines against tuberculosis

Experimental models of infection are good tools for establishing immunological parameters that have an effect on the host-pathogen relationship and also for designing new vaccines and immune therapies. In this work, we evaluated the evolution of experimental tuberculosis in mice infected with increasing bacterial doses or via distinct routes. We showed that mice infected with low bacterial doses by the intratracheal route were able to develop a progressive infection that was proportional to the inoculum size. In the initial phase of disease, mice developed a specific Th1-driven immune response independent of inoculum concentration. However, in the late phase, mice infected with higher concentrations exhibited a mixed Th1/Th2 response, while mice infected with lower concentrations sustained the Th1 pattern. Significant IL-10 concentrations and a more preeminent T regulatory cell recruitment were also detected at 70 days post-infection with high bacterial doses. These results suggest that mice infected with higher concentrations of bacilli developed an immune response similar to the pattern described for human tuberculosis wherein patients with progressive tuberculosis exhibit a down modulation of IFN-gamma production accompanied by increased levels of IL-4. Thus, these data indicate that the experimental model is important in evaluating the protective efficacy of new vaccines and therapies against tuberculosis. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nocturnal awakening with headache and its relationship with sleep disorders in a population-based sample of adult inhabitants of Sao Paulo City, Brazil

Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of nocturnal awakening with headache (NAH) in the population of Sao Paulo City according to gender, age (20-80 years old) and socioeconomic classes and its relationship to sleep disorders, sleep parameters, anxiety, depression, fatigue, life quality and obesity. We used a population-based survey with a representative three-stage cluster sample. Questionnaires and scales were applied face-to-face, and polysomnography was performed in 1101 volunteers, aged 42 +/- 14 years, 55% women. The complaint of NAH occurring at least once a week had a prevalence of 8.4%, mostly in women, obese subjects and those aged 50-59 years-old. We observed associations of NAH with insomnia, restless leg syndrome (RLS), nightmares and bruxism, but not obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. In a logistics regression model, risk factors for NAH were female gender, odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) 4.5 (2.8-7.3); obesity, OR 1.9 (1.1-3.3); age between 50 and 59 years, OR 2.4 (1.2-4.7); severe anxiety, OR 8.1 (3.6-18.1); RLS, 2.7 (1.2-5.6); and nightmares, 2.2 (1.3-3.7). Our study shows that NAH was highly prevalent in the population of Sao Paulo and suggests that this phenomenon has specific characteristics with specific risk factors: obesity, RLS and nightmares.

The relationship between two types of upper eyelid movements: Saccades and pursuit

PURPOSE. To establish the relationship between upper eyelid saccades and upper eyelid pursuit movements. METHODS. Upper eyelid saccades and periodic sinusoidal upper eyelid pursuit movements were recorded in a sample of controls and patients with Graves upper eyelid retraction. A video-computerized system was used to register both types of movements that accompanied 60 of eye rotation across the upper and lower hemifields. The forced harmonic oscillator model was used to fit saccadic and pursuit movements. RESULTS. Mean mid-pupil eyelid distance for the Graves patients (6.6 +/- 1.1 mm) was significantly higher than for the controls (4.6 +/- 0.8 mm; t = 7.18; P < 0.00001). Despite the difference in the upper eyelid resting position, saccades and pursuit eyelid movements of both groups were extremely well fitted by underdamped solutions and steady forced solutions of the harmonic oscillator model, respectively. For the controls, the amplitude of the pursuit movements was well correlated with the upward and downward saccades. The amplitude of the eyelid movements of the Graves patients (saccades and pursuit) was significantly reduced compared with that of the controls. CONCLUSIONS. Saccadic and pursuit movements of the upper eyelid can be described by the harmonic oscillator model. In healthy subjects and Graves patients, the amplitude of pursuit lid movements is correlated to the saccade amplitude. Pursuit eyelid movements are more difficult to register than saccades, and their measurements do not allow clear separation of the relaxation and contraction properties of the upper eyelid retractors.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Temporal relationship between the auditory brainstem response and focal responses of auditory nerve root and cochlear nucleus during development in the tammar wallaby (Macropus eugenii)

Thirty-two pouch-young tammar wallabies were used to discover the generators of the auditory brainstem response (ABR) during development by the use of simultaneous ABR and focal brainstem recordings. A click response from the auditory nerve root (ANR) in the wallaby was recorded from postnatal day (PND) 101, when no central auditory station was functional, and coincided with the ABR, a simple positive wave. The response of the cochlear nucleus (CN) was detected from PND 110, when the ABR had developed 1 positive and 1 negative peak. The dominant component of the focal ANR response, the N-1 wave, coincided with the first half of the ABR P wave, and that of the focal CN response, the N-1 wave, coincided with the later two thirds. In older animals, the ANR response coincided with the ABR's N-1, wave, while the CN response coincided with the ABR's P-2, N-2 and P-3 waves, with its contribution to the ABR P-2 dominant. The protracted development of the marsupial auditory system which facilitated these correlations makes the tammar wallaby a particularly suitable model. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Probing the effect of vehicles on topical delivery: Understanding the basic relationship between solvent and solute penetration using silicone membranes

Purpose. In the present study we examined the relationship between solvent uptake into a model membrane (silicone) with the physical properties of the solvents (e.g., solubility parameter, melting point, molecular weight) and its potential predictability. We then assessed the subsequent topical penetration and retention kinetics of hydrocortisone from various solvents to define whether modifications to either solute diffusivity or partitioning were dominant in increasing permeability through solvent-modified membranes. Methods. Membrane sorption of solvents was determined from weight differences following immersion in individual solvents, corrected for differences in density. Permeability and retention kinetics of H-3-hydrocortisone, applied as saturated solutions in the various solvents, were determined over 48 h in horizontal Franz-type glass diffusion cells. Results. Solvent sorption into the membrane could be related to differences in solubility parameters, MW and hydrogen bonding (r(2) = 0.76). The actual and predicted volume of solvent sorbed into the membrane was also found to be linearly related to Log hydrocortisone flux, with changes in both diffusivity and partitioning of hydrocortisone observed for the different solvent vehicles. Conclusions. A simple structure-based predictive model can be applied to the sorption of solvents into silicone membranes. Changes in solute diffusivity and partitioning appeared to contribute to the increased hydrocortisone flux observed with the various solvent vehicles. The application of this predictive model to the more complex skin membrane remains to be determined.

The genetic and environmental relationship between the interpersonal sensitivity measure (IPSM) and the personality dimensions of Eysenck and Cloninger

A shortened version of the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM) developed to predict depression prone personalities was administered in a self-report questionnaire to a community-based sample of 3269 Australian twin pairs aged 18-28 years, along with Eysenck's EPQ and Cloninger's TPQ. The IPSM included four sub-scales: Separation Anxiety (SEP); Interpersonal Sensitivity (INT); Fragile Inner-Self (FIS); and Timidity (TIM). Univariate analysis revealed that individual differences in the IPSM sub-scale scores were best explained by additive genetic and specific environmental effects. Confirming previous research findings, familial aggregation for the EPQ and TPQ personality dimensions was entirely due to additive genetic effects. In the multivariate case, a model comprising additive genetic and specific environmental effects best explained the covariation between the latent factors for male and female twin pairs alike. The EPQ and TPQ dimensions accounted for moderate to large proportions of the genetic variance (40-76%) in the IPSM sub-scales, while most of the non-shared environment variance was unique to the IPSM sub-scales. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

n-fold Weibull multiplicative model

In this paper we study the n-fold multiplicative model involving Weibull distributions and examine some properties of the model. These include the shapes for the density and failure rate functions and the WPP plot. These allow one to decide if a given data set can be adequately modelled by the model. We also discuss the estimation of model parameters based on the WPP plot. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Developing a meta model for the Bunge-Wand-Weber ontological constructs

At the core of the analysis task in the development process is information systems requirements modelling, Modelling of requirements has been occurring for many years and the techniques used have progressed from flowcharting through data flow diagrams and entity-relationship diagrams to object-oriented schemas today. Unfortunately, researchers have been able to give little theoretical guidance only to practitioners on which techniques to use and when. In an attempt to address this situation, Wand and Weber have developed a series of models based on the ontological theory of Mario Bunge-the Bunge-Wand-Weber (BWW) models. Two particular criticisms of the models have persisted however-the understandability of the constructs in the BWW models and the difficulty in applying the models to a modelling technique. This paper addresses these issues by presenting a meta model of the BWW constructs using a meta language that is familiar to many IS professionals, more specific than plain English text, but easier to understand than the set-theoretic language of the original BWW models. Such a meta model also facilitates the application of the BWW theory to other modelling techniques that have similar meta models defined. Moreover, this approach supports the identification of patterns of constructs that might be common across meta models for modelling techniques. Such findings are useful in extending and refining the BWW theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecotourism for the survival of sea turtles and other wildlife

This paper discusses generally why humans should bother to conserve sea turtles. In doing so, it considers both economic and non-economic reasons and outlines threats to the existence of sea turtles and ways in which tourism may either contribute to the conservation or decline of their populations. Turtle-based ecotourism at Mon Repos in southern Queensland is described. As a result of a survey conducted by the authors, it is shown that turtle-based ecotourism at Mon Repos has positive social (indirect) consequences for the conservation of sea turtles. Furthermore, it is argued that ecotourism operations at Mon Repos have positive direct impacts on the sustainability of populations of sea turtles. However, using a simple model, it is emphasised that this impact is limited because turtles are migratory. A model is also developed to capture the possible relationship between turtle populations and the sustainability of ecotourism dependent on turtle populations, and is extended to other wildlife species. Significant interdependence exists between the sustainability of these two variables. The theory is related to Ciriacy-Wantrup's social safe minimum conservation standard for species' survival.

A model of factors affecting an information system's change in state

Management are keen to maximize the life span of an information system because of the high cost, organizational disruption, and risk of failure associated with the re-development or replacement of an information system. This research investigates the effects that various factors have on an information system's life span by understanding how the factors affect an information system's stability. The research builds on a previously developed two-stage model of information system change whereby an information system is either in a stable state of evolution in which the information system's functionality is evolving, or in a state of revolution, in which the information system is being replaced because it is not providing the functionality expected by its users. A case study surveyed a number of systems within one organization. The aim was to test whether a relationship existed between the base value of the volatility index (a measure of the stability of an information system) and certain system characteristics. Data relating to some 3000 user change requests covering 40 systems over a 10-year period were obtained. The following factors were hypothesized to have significant associations with the base value of the volatility index: language level (generation of language of construction), system size, system age, and the timing of changes applied to a system. Significant associations were found in the hypothesized directions except that the timing of user changes was not associated with any change in the value of the volatility index. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.