Using high resolution tracer data to constrain water storage, flux and age estimates in a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Josie Geris, Jason Lessels, and Claire Tunaley for data collection and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. We also thank Christian Birkel for discussions about the model structure and comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC).We thank the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding the VeWa project.

Visualisation of spatial patterns of connectivity and runoff ages derived from a traceraided model

We thank the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding the VeWa project.

Age model and chemistry of sediment core STK7 from Steisslinger See

Stable isotope records for carbon and oxygen in bulk carbonates, carbon in bulk organic matter, and for total and chromium-reducible sulfur in a lacustrine sediment core from Lake Steisslingen (Southwest Germany) show several distinct and abrupt shifts during the last 15,000 years. Variations in the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates indicate two major phases in the lake history. In the pre-Holocene, the hydrological budget of the lake was apparently stable. Variations of delta18O values of authigenic carbonates were, therefore, dominantly controlled by temperature changes. A decrease in the delta18Ocarb values of about 2 per mil at the Allerød/Younger Dryas transition is interpreted as a drop in mean annual air temperatures of approximately 5°C. An abrupt temperature increase of a similar magnitude is inferred at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal boundary. Throughout most of the Holocene, the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates was influenced by marked changes in the hydrological budget of the lake. A major positive excursion in the delta13Ccarb and delta18Ocarb values at the beginning of the Atlantic and a smaller one in the Preboreal were related to evaporation effects, which indicate that dry climatic conditions must have prevailed at that time. A simultaneous increase in delta13C values of bulk organic matter at the beginning of the Atlantic suggests a high level of productivity in the lake. As a consequence, aqueous sulfate became limited as indicated by variations in the delta34S values of total and chromium-reducible sedimentary sulfur. Therefore, we conclude that the beginning of the Atlantic was characterized not only by dry but also by warm climatic conditions, which triggered a higher productivity in the lake. In the Subatlantic sediments, large variations in carbon, oxygen, and sulfur isotope ratios were observed as a result of human activities, causing considerable perturbations in the biogeochemical element cycling of Lake Steisslingen. Results obtained by the study of the continuous 15 ka record of Lake Steisslingen document clearly that isotopic proxy data from lacustrine sediments can provide useful information on environmental and climatic changes of local, regional, and in the case of the Younger Dryas event, of even hemispherical significance.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Results of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH in NetCDF format

In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H218O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the d18O in precipitation also shows variations from -4 permil up to 4 permil. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the d18O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for d18O by up to +8 permil:, the simulated d18O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1 permil. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.

Hydrological and economic effects of oil palm cultivation in Indonesian peatlands

Oil palm has increasingly been established on peatlands throughout Indonesia. One of the concerns is that the drainage required for cultivating oil palm in peatlands leads to soil subsidence, potentially increasing future flood risks. This study analyzes the hydrological and economic effects of oil palm production in a peat landscape in Central Kalimantan. We examine two land use scenarios, one involving conversion of the complete landscape including a large peat area to oil palm plantations, and another involving mixed land use including oil palm plantations, jelutung (jungle rubber; (Dyera spp.) plantations, and natural forest. The hydrological effect was analyzed through flood risk modeling using a high-resolution digital elevation model. For the economic analysis, we analyzed four ecosystem services: oil palm production, jelutung production, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat. This study shows that after 100 years, in the oil palm scenario, about 67% of peat in the study area will be subject to regular flooding. The flood-prone area will be unsuitable for oil palm and other crops requiring drained soils. The oil palm scenario is the most profitable only in the short term and when the externalities of oil palm production, i.e., the costs of CO2 emissions, are not considered. In the examined scenarios, the social costs of carbon emissions exceed the private benefits from oil palm plantations in peat. Depending upon the local hydrology, income from jelutung, which can sustainably be grown in undrained conditions and does not lead to soil subsidence, outweighs that from oil palm after several decades. These findings illustrate the trade-offs faced at present in Indonesian peatland management and point to economic advantages of an approach that involves expansion of oil palm on mineral lands while conserving natural peat forests and using degraded peat for crops that do not require drainage.

Phosphoglucose isomerase variability of Cerastoderma glaucum as a model for testing the influence of environmental conditions and dispersal patterns through quantitative ecology approaches

Extreme conditions of coastal lagoons could directly modify the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence of environmental conditions and small scale dispersal patterns on the phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI*) genetic variability of Cerastoderma glaucum from the Mar Menor coastal lagoon. For this purpose, 284 cockles were collected around the perimeter of the lagoon. Vertical polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to scan for PGI* polymorphisms, giving a total of seven alleles. The spatial genetic distribution of the PGI* variability, which seems to be marked by the main circulation in the lagoon, discriminates four hydrological basins. In the central basin, a gradient of allelic composition reflects the circulation forced by the dominant winds and the main channel communicated to the open sea. This result is well supported by the salinity GAM model that defines this gradient. The other three basins are defined by the distribution of fine sand in a more complex model that tries to explain the isolation of the three sites localized inside these basins. The southern, western and northern basins show the lowest degree of interconnection and are considered the most confined areas of the Mar Menor lagoon. This situation agrees with the confinement theory for benthic assemblages in the lagoon. The greater degree of differentiation seen in the Isla del Ciervo population is probably due to recent human intervention on the nearby Marchamalo channel, which has been drained in recent years thus altering the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the southern basin.

Integration of a Sedimentation Module to a Hydrologic Model and its Application to a Mercury TMDL Analysis

This research is part of continued efforts to correlate the hydrology of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) and Bear Creek (BC) with the long term distribution of mercury within the overland, subsurface, and river sub-domains. The main objective of this study was to add a sedimentation module (ECO Lab) capable of simulating the reactive transport mercury exchange mechanisms within sediments and porewater throughout the watershed. The enhanced model was then applied to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) mercury analysis for EFPC. That application used historical precipitation, groundwater levels, river discharges, and mercury concentrations data that were retrieved from government databases and input to the model. The model was executed to reduce computational time, predict flow discharges, total mercury concentration, flow duration and mercury mass rate curves at key monitoring stations under various hydrological and environmental conditions and scenarios. The computational results provided insight on the relationship between discharges and mercury mass rate curves at various stations throughout EFPC, which is important to best understand and support the management mercury contamination and remediation efforts within EFPC.

Energy balance model applied to pasture experimental areas in São Paulo State, Brazil.

The Simple Algorithm for Evapotranspiration Retrieving (SAFER) was used to estimate biophysical parameters and theenergy balance components in two different pasture experimental areas, in the São Paulo state, Brazil. The experimentalpastures consist in six rotational (RGS) and three continuous grazing systems (CGS) paddocks. Landsat-8 images from2013 and 2015 dry and rainy seasons were used, as these presented similar hydrological cycle, with 1,600 mm and 1,613mm of annual precipitation, resulting in 19 cloud-free images. Bands 1 to 7 and thermal bands 10 and 11 were used withweather data from a station located nearthe experimental area. NDVI, biomass, evapotranspiration and latent heat flux(λE) temporal values statistically differ CGS from RGS areas. Grazing systems influences the energy partition and theseresults indicate that RGS benefits biomass production, evapotranspiration and the microclimate, due higher LE values.SAFER is a feasible tool to estimate biophysical parameters and energy balance components in pasture and has potentialto discriminate continuous and rotation grazing systems in a temporal analysis.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.