Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Present and future of photovoltaic solar electricity

Introduction Crystalline silicon technology, from quartz to system Economical and environmental issues Alternatives to cristalline silicon technology Conclusions

Compatison of S-SI, A-SI and CDTE technologies wording at the same conditions, after the first year of electricity production

Grid connected solar plants are a good opportunity for their use for research as a secondary objective. In countries were feed-in tariffs are still active, it is possible to include in the design of the solar plant elements for its use for research. In the case of the solar plant presented here both objectives are covered. The solar plant of this work is formed by PV modules of three different technologies: Multicrystalline, amorphous and CdTe. In one part of the solar plant, the three technologies are working at the same conditions, not only ambient conditions but also similar voltage and current input to the inverters. Both the commercial and the experimental parts of the solar plant have their own independent inverters with their meters but are finally connected to the same meter to inject. In this work we analyse the results for the first year of operation of the experimental solar plant. Productions of three different technologies in exactly the same conditions are compared and presented. According to the results, all the three technologies have conversion efficiencies dropping when the temperature increases. Amorphous module experiences the lesser reduction, whereas the multicrystalline module suffers the most.

Methodology for estimating building integrated photovoltaics electricity production under shadowing conditions and case study

Building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are a relevant application of photovoltaics. In countries belonging to the International Energy Agency countries, 24% of total installed PV power corresponds to BIPV systems. Electricity losses caused by shadows over the PV generator have a significant impact on the performance of BIPV systems, being the major source of electricity losses. This paper presents a methodology to estimate electricity produced by BIPV systems which incorporates a model for shading losses. The proposed methodology has been validated on a one year study with real data from two similar PV systems placed on the south façade of a building belonging to the Technical University of Madrid. This study has covered all weather conditions: clear, partially overcast and fully overcast sky. Results of this study are shown at different time scales, resulting that the errors committed by the best performing model are below 1% and 3% in annual and daily electricity estimation. The use of models which account for the reduced performance at low irradiance levels also improves the estimation of generated electricity.

Unit Commitment and Electricity Prices Forecasting for Market Strategy Preparation in Interconnected Systems

In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

Improved high-speed de-excitation system for brushless synchronous machines tested on a 20 MVA hydro-generator

Synchronous machines with brushless excitation have the disadvantage that the field winding is not accessible for the de-excitation of the machine. This means that, despite the proper operation of the protection system, the slow de-excitation time constant may produce severe damage in the event of an internal short circuit. A high-speed de-excitation system for these machines was developed, and this study presents the continuation of a previously published study. This study presents the design by computer simulation and the results of the first commissioning of this de-excitation system in a commercial 20 MVA hydro-generator. The de-excitation is achieved by inserting resistance in the field circuit, obtaining a dynamic response similar to that achieved in machines with static excitation. In this case, a non-linear discharge resistor was used, making the dynamic response even better.

Economic Impacts of Rules-based vs Risk-based Cybersecurity Regulations in Critical Infrastructure Providers (Bulk Electricity Providers)

Economics of Cybersecurity Part 2. SPSI-2015-01-0024.

The effect of electricity tariffs over the operating costs of the Spanish wastewater treatments plants

Given the complex structure of electricity tariffs and their steady growth in Spanish, we've studied its effect over the operating costs of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), concluding that in the last three years the revisions of electricity rates have meant increases in electricity costs of 64.5% in the rate 3.1.A and 79.1% in the rate 6.1. This has caused the cost of electricity, which was the most important, has increased from a 44% of total operating costs in the year 2009, to more than a 56% in the year 2012.

Algorithm for Estimation of Electricity Consumption Reduction by Using Variable Frequency Drive of Main Line Pumps

The article is about using of variable frequency drives for reduction oil pumping main line pumps energy consumption. Block diagram of developed computer program is shown in the article. The computer program allows to determine the reduction of energy consumption and to estimate payback period of variable frequency drives.

United States/Mexico electricity exchanges /

Cover title: Electricity exchanges, United States/Mexico.

Electricity rates : hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundred Seventh Congress, first session on S. 26, S. 287, S. 80, amdt. to S. 287, March 15, 2001.

Shipping list no.: 2001-0254-P.

The application of electricity to the dispersion of fog ...

Typewritten ms.

Basic electricity.

Mode of access: Internet.

Questions arising in the consideration of the financial and business aspects of municipal electricity supply.

Reprinted from Proceedings of the Incorporated Municipal Electrical Association, 26th annual meeting, 1921, p. 13-92.