The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy conversions and storage caused by an unsteady poloidal flow in active solar regions

In this paper we discuss coupling processes between a magnetic field and an unsteady plasma motion, and analyze the features of energy storage and conversions in active region. It is pointed out that the static force-free field is insufficient for a discussion of storage processes, and also the pure unsteady plasma rotation is not a perfect approach. In order to analyze the energy storage, we must consider the addition of poloidal plasma motion. The paper shows that because the unsteady poloidal flow is added and coupling occurs between the magnetic field and both the toroidal and the poloidal plasma flows, an unsteady process is maintained which changes the force-free factor with time. Hence, the energy in the lower levels can be transferred to the upper levels, and a considerable energy can be stored in the active region. Finally, another storage process is given which is due to the pure poloidal flow. The article shows that even if there is no twisted magnetic line of force, the energy in the lower levels may still be transferred to the upper levels and stored there.

Explorations of electric-current system in solar active regions .1. Empirical inferences of the current flows

In this paper we explore techniques to identify sources of electric current systems and their channels of flow in solar active regions. Measured photospheric vector magnetic fields (VMF) together with high-resolution white-light and H filtergrams provide the data base to derive the current systems in the photosphere and chromosphere. Simple mathematical constructions of fields and currents are also adopted to understand these data. As an example, the techniques are then applied to infer current systems in AR 2372 in early April 1980. The main results are: (i) In unipolar sunspots the current density may reach values of 103 CGSE, and the Lorentz force on it can accelerate the Evershed flow, (ii) Spots exhibiting significant spiral pattrn in the penumbral filaments are the sources of vertical major currents at the photospheric surface, (iii) Magnetic neutral lines where the transverse field was strongly sheared were channels along which strong current system flows, (iv) The inferred current systems produced oppositely-flowing currents in the area of the delta configuration that was the site of flaring in AR 2372.

The dynamical process of a coronal transient associated with an eruptive prominence .2. Analytical solutions in finite regions

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PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Workshop on the Development of Cooperative Research in Coastal Regions of the North Pacific, October 17-18, 1997, Pusan, Republic of Korea

(PDF contains 53 pages)

Assessment of Atlantic Red Drum for 1999: Northern and southern regions

An assessment of the status of the Atlantic stock of red drum is conducted using recreational and commercial data from 1986 through 1998. This assessment updates data and analyses from the 1989, 1991, 1992 and 1995 stock assessments on Atlantic coast red drum (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996). Since 1981, coastwide recreational catches ranged between 762,300 pounds in 1980 and 2,623,900 pounds in 1984, while commercial landings ranged between 60,900 pounds in 1997 and 422,500 pounds in 1984. In weight of fish caught, Atlantic red drum constitute predominantly a recreational fishery (ranging between 85 and 95% during the 1990s). Commercially, red drum continue to be harvested as part of mixed species fisheries. Using available length-frequency distributions and age-length keys, recreational and commercial catches are converted to catch in numbers at age. Separable and tuned virtual population analyses are conducted on the catch in numbers at age to obtain estimates of fishing mortality rates and population size (including recruitment to age 1). In tum, these estimates of fishing mortality rates combined with estimates of growth (length and weight), sex ratios, sexual maturity and fecundity are used to estimate yield per recruit, escapement to age 4, and static (or equilibrium) spawning potential ratio (static SPR, based on both female biomass and egg production). Three virtual analysis approaches (separable, spreadsheet, and FADAPT) were applied to catch matrices for two time periods (early: 1986-1991, and late: 1992-1998) and two regions (Northern: North Carolina and north, and Southern: South Carolina through east coast of Florida). Additional catch matrices were developed based on different treatments for the catch-and-release recreationally-caught red drum (B2-type). These approaches included assuming 0% mortality (BASEO) versus 10% mortality for B2 fish. For the 10% mortality on B2 fish, sizes were assumed the same as caught fish (BASEl), or positive difference in size distribution between the early period and the later period (DELTA), or intermediate (PROP). Hence, a total of 8 catch matrices were developed (2 regions, and 4 B2 assumptions for 1986-1998) to which the three VPA approaches were applied. The question of when offshore emigration or reduced availability begins (during or after age 3) continues to be a source of bias that tends to result in overestimates of fishing mortality. Additionally, the continued assumption (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996) of no fishing mortality on adults (ages 6 and older), causes a bias that results in underestimates of fishing mortality for adult ages (0 versus some positive value). Because of emigration and the effect of the slot limit for the later period, a range in relative exploitations of age 3 to age 2 red drum was considered. Tuning indices were developed from the MRFSS, and state indices for use in the spreadsheet and FADAPT VPAs. The SAFMC Red Drum Assessment Group (Appendix A) favored the FADAPT approach with catch matrix based on DELTA and a selectivity for age 3 relative to age 2 of 0.70 for the northern region and 0.87 for the southern region. In the northern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 1.3% for the period 1987-1991 to approximately 18% (15% and 20%) for the period 1992-1998. For the southern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 0.5% for the period 1988-1991 to approximately 15% for the period 1992-1998. Population models used in this assessment (specifically yield per recruit and static spawning potential ratio) are based on equilibrium assumptions: because no direct estimates are available as to the current status of the adult stock, model results imply potential longer term, equilibrium effects. Because current status of the adult stock is unknown, a specific rebuilding schedule cannot be determined. However, the duration of a rebuilding schedule should reflect, in part, a measure of the generation time of the fish species under consideration. For a long-lived, but relatively early spawning, species as red drum, mean generation time would be on the order of 15 to 20 years based on age-specific egg production. Maximum age is 50 to 60 years for the northern region, and about 40 years for the southern region. The ASMFC Red Drum Board's first phase recovery goal of increasing %SPR to at least 10% appears to have been met. (PDF contains 79 pages)

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)

Underwater Passive Acoustic Monitoring for Remote Regions, Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, Coconut Island, Hawaii, February 7-9, 2007: workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) convened a workshop, sponsored by the Hawaii-Pacific and Alaska Regional Partners, entitled Underwater Passive Acoustic Monitoring for Remote Regions at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology from February 7-9, 2007. The workshop was designed to summarize existing passive acoustic technologies and their uses, as well as to make strategic recommendations for future development and collaborative programs that use passive acoustic tools for scientific investigation and resource management. The workshop was attended by 29 people representing three sectors: research scientists, resource managers, and technology developers. The majority of passive acoustic tools are being developed by individual scientists for specific applications and few tools are available commercially. Most scientists are developing hydrophone-based systems to listen for species-specific information on fish or cetaceans; a few scientists are listening for biological indicators of ecosystem health. Resource managers are interested in passive acoustics primarily for vessel detection in remote protected areas and secondarily to obtain biological and ecological information. The military has been monitoring with hydrophones for decades;however, data and signal processing software has not been readily available to the scientific community, and future collaboration is greatly needed. The challenges that impede future development of passive acoustics are surmountable with greater collaboration. Hardware exists and is accessible; the limits are in the software and in the interpretation of sounds and their correlation with ecological events. Collaboration with the military and the private companies it contracts will assist scientists and managers with obtaining and developing software and data analysis tools. Collaborative proposals among scientists to receive larger pools of money for exploratory acoustic science will further develop the ability to correlate noise with ecological activities. The existing technologies and data analysis are adequate to meet resource managers' needs for vessel detection. However, collaboration is needed among resource managers to prepare large-scale programs that include centralized processing in an effort to address the lack of local capacity within management agencies to analyze and interpret the data. Workshop participants suggested that ACT might facilitate such collaborations through its website and by providing recommendations to key agencies and programs, such as DOD, NOAA, and I00s. There is a need to standardize data formats and archive acoustic environmental data at the national and international levels. Specifically, there is a need for local training and primers for public education, as well as by pilot demonstration projects, perhaps in conjunction with National Marine Sanctuaries. Passive acoustic technologies should be implemented immediately to address vessel monitoring needs. Ecological and health monitoring applications should be developed as vessel monitoring programs provide additional data and opportunities for more exploratory research. Passive acoustic monitoring should also be correlated with water quality monitoring to ease integration into long-term monitoring programs, such as the ocean observing systems. [PDF contains 52 pages]