Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92: revised version

Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditureGDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine three central issues in public finance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after shocks to either revenues or expenditures? Third, are expenditures exogenous? The results show that (i) public deficit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not; (ii) the behavior of a rational Brazilian consumer may be consistent with Ricardian Equivalence; (iii) seigniorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.

Mobilidade de capitais e movimentos da conta corrente do Brasil: 1947-1997

Com base na análise histórica da economia brasileira nas últimas décadas, poder-se-ia supor que sejam expressivas as restrições aos movimentos internacionais de capitais. Para analisar essa questão, usa-se o modelo intertemporal da conta corrente, testando as suas proposições básicas com dados econômicos brasileiros (perfeita mobilidade de capitais sob a Teoria da Renda Permanente). Para testar o modelo, trabalha-se com a técnica econométrica desenvolvida por Campbell (1987) e Campbell e Shiller (1987), aplicáveis a teorias de valor presente, onde a conta corrente é vista como valor presente das mudanças do produto líquido. Os resultados encontrados revelam que o modelo é rejeitado para os dados brasileiros, uma vez que nem todas as proposições testáveis são confirmadas. Isto mostra a inexistência de plena mobilidade de capitais, o que corrobora as suspeitas levantadas a partir da análise histórica. No entanto, foram constatados elevado grau de mobilidade de capitais e significativo fluxo de capitais especulativos, pois a série de conta corrente estimada de acordo com o modelo mostra-se menos volátil que a série observada na economia brasileira.

PIB trimestral: proposta metodológica e resultados para o período 1947-79

Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia para o cálculo do PIB trimestral a preços constantes nos anos anteriores a 1980, quando o IBGE passou a calcular esse indicador para o Brasil, e apresenta os resultados de sua aplicação aos anos de 1947 a 1980. Para a estimação do indicador do PIB trimestral construiu-se primeiramente uma base de dados composta por séries fortemente associadas ao nível de atividade econômica nacional depois de 1980 e que também estivessem disponíveis em frequência mensal ou trimestral no período 1947-80. Em seguida, aplicou-se às séries dessa base de dados o método do filtro de Kalman com a restrição de que a cada ano a taxa de crescimento das médias do PIB trimestral obtido após a estimação seja igual à variação da série anual calculada pelas Contas Nacionais.

Análise da contribuição da revista de administração (1947-1992) na evolução do campo de conhecimento em administração pública

Analysis of the Contribution of Revista de Administração (1947-1992) to the Evolution of the Field of Knowledge in Public Administration.

Etnobiologia do boto cinza (Sotalia guianensis, van Bénéden, 1864) por comunidades pesqueiras do Rio Grande do Norte, Basil

Ethnobiology studies Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) as well as the use and management of natural resources by local communities in order to understand how the environment is perceived, known and classified by human groups. In fishing communities, LEK adds empirical information about the biology of aquatic species and complements scientific findings, especially when it is difficult to obtain factual information during studies on cetaceans, whose behavior is essentially underwater. Cetaceans (whales and dolphins) are constantly threatened by human activities, especially by accidental capture of small coastal species, as in the case of the estuarine dolphin (Sotalia guianensis), object of this study. Ethnobiological researches in fishing communities are of great importance and can clarify aspects of the biology and conservation of this species. Although extensively studied throughout its distribution range, there are still gaps in the knowledge about S. guianensis. Therefore, fishers local ecological knowledge becomes an additional tool to get and confirm information about S. guianensis. This study evaluated the LEK of artisanal fishers who are daily exposed to local population of S. guianensis, through the use of semistructured interviews (N=116). The interviewed fishers were asked about the biology and popular classification of S. guianensis and about possible interactions between this dolphin and them. The studied communities were located in Tibau do Sul (n=39), Pipa (n=36) and Baía Formosa (n=41), all on the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The study was based on the assumption that differences in fishers LEK among those communities would be caused by both the variety of fishing environments (lagoon/estuary and ocean) and the intensity of tourism activities. Fishers knowledge is expressive and differed among the studied communities depending on the topic investigated. Fishers correctly reported the habitat, distribution, seasonality and behavioral particularities of S. guianensis. Tourism mainly affected the naming of the species. The study results also suggest that marine fishers have greater knowledge about the species than the estuarine/lagoon ones. Local populations accumulate empirical knowledge according to their environment. Hence, it is important to take into account both empirical knowledge and popular participation in management systems, in order to maintain information sharing among communities

A letra escarlate como romance histórico: uma história de fragilidade humana e tristeza

The objective of this paper is to analyze the work of the American writer Nathaniel Hawthorne (1804 - 1864), The Scarlet Letter (1850), in the light of the contributions of Literature and History of the American people in the context of New England. Accordingly, we highlight aspects that justify the inclusion of the work as a historical novel, especially based on the reading of The Historical Novel (1936-37) written by Georg Lukács. The diversity of voices and social interrelationships that come out of the main characters of the plot of the novel, as well as their contextual buildings, constituted as important traces to understanding the novel as being of historical value. During our study, we found out that it is in the plots of the novels that the characters reflect, at the same time, the specific conditions of their singularities, the general trends of the historical process and the social conditions from which they arise. We also could see that it is in their singularities that lie special tendencies of human beings. Our references to this study came from scholars as Howard (1964), Bakhtin (1998), Eagleton (2006), Todorov (2009), Zabel (1947), Sellers (1985), Cunlife (1986), Candido (1993) and Schwarz (1981)