Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation and bleeding: incidence, predictors and prognosis

Peri-procedural bleeding complications are feared adverse events in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Little is known about the implications of peri-procedural bleeding on clinical outcome. In a prospective single-center registry of consecutive patients undergoing TAVI, we investigated incidence, predictors and clinical consequences of life-threatening and major bleeding as defined by the Valve Academic Research Consortium. Among 389 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI by a transfemoral (79.2%), transapical (19.6%) or trans-subclavian (1.3%) approach between July 2007 and October 2011, life-threatening or major peri-procedural bleeding events occurred in 64 (16.4%) and 125 patients (32.1%), respectively. Patients with peri-procedural bleeding events had a higher logistic EuroSCORE, more advanced renal disease, and were more symptomatic as assessed by New York Heart Association functional class at baseline as compared to patients with no bleeding. Life-threatening bleeding was associated with a higher all-cause (17.2 vs. 5.6 vs. 3.0%, p < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (10.9 vs. 5.6 vs. 2.5%, p = 0.02) at 30 days compared to patients with major bleeding or no bleeding. Multivariate analysis identified transapical access (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8; p = 0.002), glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.7, p = 0.031), and diabetes (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.001-3.2, p = 0.049) as independent predictors of life-threatening, peri-procedural bleeding. Life-threatening bleeding complications in patients undergoing TAVI are associated with increased mortality. Renal impairment, diabetes, and transapical approach were identified as independent risk factors for life-threatening bleeding events.

MEN1 Gene Mutation and Reduced Expression Are Associated With Poor Prognosis in Pulmonary Carcinoids

Context: MEN1 gene alterations have been implicated in lung carcinoids, but their effect on gene expression and disease outcome is unknown. Objective: Our objective was to analyze MEN1 gene and expression anomalies in lung neuroendocrine neoplasms and their correlations with clinicopathologic data and disease outcome. Design: We examined 74 lung neuroendocrine neoplasms including 58 carcinoids and 16 high-grade neuroendocrine carcinomas (HGNECs) for MEN1 mutations (n = 70) and allelic losses (n = 69), promoter hypermethylation (n = 65), and mRNA (n = 74) expression. Results were correlated with disease outcome. Results: MEN1 mutations were found in 7 of 55 (13%) carcinoids and in 1 HGNEC, mostly associated with loss of the second allele. MEN1 decreased expression levels correlated with the presence of mutations (P = .0060) and was also lower in HGNECs than carcinoids (P = .0024). MEN1 methylation was not associated with mRNA expression levels. Patients with carcinoids harboring MEN1 mutation and loss had shorter overall survival (P = .039 and P = .035, respectively) and low MEN1 mRNA levels correlated with distant metastasis (P = .00010) and shorter survival (P = .0071). In multivariate analysis, stage and MEN1 allelic loss were independent predictors of prognosis. Conclusion: Thirteen percent of pulmonary carcinoids harbor MEN1 mutation associated with reduced mRNA expression and poor prognosis. Also in mutation-negative tumors, low MEN1 gene expression correlates with an adverse disease outcome. Hypermethylation was excluded as the underlying mechanism.

Loss of TRAIL-receptors is a recurrent feature in pancreatic cancer and determines the prognosis of patients with no nodal metastasis after surgery

INTRODUCTION Agonistic antibodies targeting TRAIL-receptors 1 and 2 (TRAIL-R1 and TRAIL-R2) are being developed as a novel therapeutic approach in cancer therapy including pancreatic cancer. However, the cellular distribution of these receptors in primary pancreatic cancer samples has not been sufficiently investigated and no study has yet addressed the issue of their prognostic significance in this tumor entity. AIMS AND METHODS Applying tissue microarray (TMA) analysis, we performed an immunohistochemical assessment of TRAIL-receptors in surgical samples from 84 consecutive patients affected by pancreatic adenocarcinoma and in 26 additional selected specimens from patients with no lymph nodes metastasis at the time of surgery. The prognostic significance of membrane staining and staining intensity for TRAIL-receptors was evaluated. RESULTS The fraction of pancreatic cancer samples with positive membrane staining for TRAIL-R1 and TRAIL-R2 was lower than that of cells from surrounding non-tumor tissues (TRAIL-R1: p<0.001, TRAIL-R2: p = 0.006). In addition, subgroup analyses showed that loss of membrane staining for TRAIL-R2 was associated with poorer prognosis in patients without nodal metastases (multivariate Cox regression analysis, Hazard Ratio: 0.44 [95% confidence interval: 0.22-0.87]; p = 0.019). In contrast, analysis of decoy receptors TRAIL-R3 and -R4 in tumor samples showed an exclusively cytoplasmatic staining pattern and no prognostic relevance. CONCLUSION This is a first report on the prognostic significance of TRAIL-receptors expression in pancreatic cancer showing that TRAIL-R2 might represent a prognostic marker for patients with early stage disease. In addition, our data suggest that loss of membrane-bound TRAIL-receptors could represent a molecular mechanism for therapeutic failure upon administration of TRAIL-receptors-targeting antibodies in pancreatic cancer. This hypothesis should be evaluated in future clinical trials.

A multifactorial histopathologic score for the prediction of prognosis of resected esophageal adenocarcinomas after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND For esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, postoperative staging classifications initially developed for non-pretreated tumors may not accurately predict prognosis. We tested whether a multifactorial TNM-based histopathologic prognostic score (PRSC), which additionally applies to tumor regression, may improve estimation of prognosis compared with the current Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC) staging system. PATIENTS AND METHODS We evaluated esophageal adenocarcinoma specimens following cis/oxaliplatin-based therapy from two separate centers (center 1: n = 280; and center 2: n = 80). For the PRSC, each factor was assigned a value from 1 to 2 (ypT0-2 = 1 point; ypT3-4 = 2 points; ypN0 = 1 point; ypN1-3 = 2 points; ≤50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 1 point; >50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 2 points). The three-tiered PRSC was based on the sum value of these factors (group A: 3; group B: 4-5; group C: 6) and was correlated with patients' overall survival (OS). RESULTS The PRSC groups showed significant differences with respect to OS (p < 0.0001; hazard ratio [HR] 2.2 [95 % CI 1.7-2.8]), which could also be demonstrated in both cohorts separately (center 1 p < 0.0001; HR 2.48 [95 % CI 1.8-3.3] and center 2 p = 0.015; HR 1.7 [95 % CI 1.1-2.6]). Moreover, the PRSC showed a more accurate prognostic discrimination than the current UICC staging system (p < 0.0001; HR 1.15 [95 % CI 1.1-1.2]), and assessment of two goodness-of-fit criteria (Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion) clearly supported the superiority of PRSC over the UICC staging. CONCLUSION The proposed PRSC clearly identifies three subgroups with different outcomes and may be more helpful for guiding further therapeutic decisions than the UICC staging system.

Interim endoscopy results during neoadjuvant therapy for gastric cancer correlate with histopathological response and prognosis

BACKGROUND Neoadjuvant chemotherapy for locally advanced gastric cancer leads to major histopathological response in less than 30 % of patients. Data on interim endoscopic response assessment do not exist. This exploratory prospective study evaluates early endoscopy after 50 % of the chemotherapy as predictor for later response and prognosis. METHODS Forty-seven consecutive patients were included (45 resected; 33 R0 resections). All patients received baseline endoscopy and CT scans, after 50 % of their chemotherapy (EGD-1, CT-1) and after completion of chemotherapy (EGD-2, CT-2). Interim endoscopic response (EGD-1) was assessed after having received 50 % (6 weeks) of the planned 12 weeks of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Post-chemotherapy response was clinically assessed by a combination of CT scan (CT-2) and endoscopy (EGD-2). Histopathological response was determined by a standardized scoring system (Becker criteria). Endoscopic response was defined as a reduction of >75 % of the tumor mass. RESULTS Twelve patients were responders at EGD-1 and 13 at EGD-2. Nine patients (19.1 %) were clinical responders and 7 patients (15.6 %) were histopathological responders after chemotherapy. Specificity, accuracy, and negative predictive value of the interim EGD-1 for subsequent histopathological response were 31/38 (82 %), 36/47 (76 %), and 31/33 (93 %); and for recurrence or death, 28/30 (93.3 %), 38/47 (80.9 %), and 28/35 (80.0 %). Response at EGD-1 was significantly associated with histopathological response (p = 0.010), survival (p < 0.001), and recurrence-free survival (p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS Interim endoscopy after 6 weeks predicts response and prognosis. Therefore, tailoring treatment according to interim endoscopic assessment could be feasible, but the findings of this study should be validated in a larger patient cohort.

LDOC1, A NOVEL BIOMARKER OF PROGNOSIS IN CHRONIC LYMPHOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

In chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), one of the best predictors of outcome is the somatic mutation status of the immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region (IGHV) genes. Patients whose CLL cells have unmutated IGHV genes have a median survival of 8 years; those with mutated IGHV genes have a median survival of 25 years. To identify new prognostic biomarkers and molecular targets for therapy in untreated CLL patients, we reanalyzed the raw data from four published gene expression profiling microarray studies. Of 88 candidate biomarkers associated with IGHV somatic mutation status, we identified LDOC1 (Leucine Zipper, Down-regulated in Cancer 1), as one of the most significantly differentially expressed genes that distinguished mutated from unmutated CLL cases. LDOC1 is a putative transcription factor of unknown function in B-cell development and CLL pathophysiology. Using a highly sensitive quantitative RT-PCR (QRT-PCR) assay, we confirmed that LDOC1 mRNA was dramatically down-regulated in mutated compared to unmutated CLL cases. Expression of LDOC1 mRNA was also vii strongly associated with other markers of poor prognosis, including ZAP70 protein and cytogenetic abnormalities of poor prognosis (deletions of chromosomes 6q21, 11q23, and 17p13.1, and trisomy 12). CLL cases positive for LDOC1 mRNA had significantly shorter overall survival than negative cases. Moreover, in a multivariate model, LDOC1 mRNA expression predicted overall survival better than IGHV mutation status or ZAP70 protein, among the best markers of prognosis in CLL. We also discovered LDOC1S, a new LDOC1 splice variant. Using isoform-specific QRT-PCR assays that we developed, we found that both isoforms were expressed in normal B cells (naïve > memory), unmutated CLL cells, and in B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas with unmutated IGHV genes. To investigate pathways in which LDOC1 is involved, we knocked down LDOC1 in HeLa cells and performed global gene expression profiling. GFI1 (Growth Factor-Independent 1) emerged as a significantly up-regulated gene in both HeLa cells and CLL cells that expressed high levels of LDOC1. GFI1 oncoprotein is implicated in hematopoietic stem cell maintenance, lymphocyte development, and lymphomagenesis. Our findings indicate that LDOC1 mRNA is an excellent biomarker of overall survival in CLL, and may contribute to B-cell differentiation and malignant transformation.

Molecular markers for urothelial bladder cancer prognosis: toward implementation in clinical practice

OBJECTIVES To summarize the current status of clinicopathological and molecular markers for the prediction of recurrence or progression or both in non-muscle-invasive and survival in muscle-invasive urothelial bladder cancer, to address the reproducibility of pathology and molecular markers, and to provide directions toward implementation of molecular markers in future clinical decision making. METHODS AND MATERIALS Immunohistochemistry, gene signatures, and FGFR3-based molecular grading were used as molecular examples focussing on prognostics and issues related to robustness of pathological and molecular assays. RESULTS The role of molecular markers to predict recurrence is limited, as clinical variables are currently more important. The prediction of progression and survival using molecular markers holds considerable promise. Despite a plethora of prognostic (clinical and molecular) marker studies, reproducibility of pathology and molecular assays has been understudied, and lack of reproducibility is probably the main reason that individual prediction of disease outcome is currently not reliable. CONCLUSIONS Molecular markers are promising to predict progression and survival, but not recurrence. However, none of these are used in the daily clinical routine because of reproducibility issues. Future studies should focus on reproducibility of marker assessment and consistency of study results by incorporating scoring systems to reduce heterogeneity of reporting. This may ultimately lead to incorporation of molecular markers in clinical practice.

Multi-colour FISH in oesophageal adenocarcinoma-predictors of prognosis independent of stage and grade.

BACKGROUND Oesophageal adenocarcinoma or Barrett's adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing in incidence and stratification of prognosis might improve disease management. Multi-colour fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) investigating ERBB2, MYC, CDKN2A and ZNF217 has recently shown promising results for the diagnosis of dysplasia and cancer using cytological samples. METHODS To identify markers of prognosis we targeted four selected gene loci using multi-colour FISH applied to a tissue microarray containing 130 EAC samples. Prognostic predictors (P1, P2, P3) based on genomic copy numbers of the four loci were statistically assessed to stratify patients according to overall survival in combination with clinical data. RESULTS The best stratification into favourable and unfavourable prognoses was shown by P1, percentage of cells with less than two ZNF217 signals; P2, percentage of cells with fewer ERBB2- than ZNF217 signals; and P3, overall ratio of ERBB2-/ZNF217 signals. Median survival times for P1 were 32 vs 73 months, 28 vs 73 months for P2; and 27 vs 65 months for P3. Regarding each tumour grade P2 subdivided patients into distinct prognostic groups independently within each grade, with different median survival times of at least 35 months. CONCLUSIONS Cell signal number of the ERBB2 and ZNF217 loci showed independence from tumour stage and differentiation grade. The prognostic value of multi-colour FISH-assays is applicable to EAC and is superior to single markers.

Intratumoral hypoxia as the genesis of genetic instability and clinical prognosis in prostate cancer

Intratumoral hypoxia is prevalent in many solid tumors and is a marker of poor clinical prognosis in prostate cancer. The presence of hypoxia is associated with increased chromosomal instability, gene amplification, downregulation of DNA damage repair pathways, and altered sensitivity to agents that damage DNA. These genomic changes could also lead to oncogene activation or tumor suppressor gene inactivation during prostate cancer progression. We review here the concept of repair-deficient hypoxic tumor cells that can adapt to low oxygen levels and acquire an aggressive "unstable mutator" phenotype. We speculate that hypoxia-induced genomic instability may also be a consequence of aberrant mitotic function in hypoxic cells, which leads to increased chromosomal instability and aneuploidy. Because both hypoxia and aneuploidy are prognostic factors in prostate cancer, a greater understanding of these biological states in prostate cancer may lead to novel prognostic and predictive tests and drive new therapeutic strategies in the context of personalized cancer medicine.

Heterogeneity analysis of Metastasis Associated in Colon Cancer 1 (MACC1) for survival prognosis of colorectal cancer patients: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is directly linked to patient survival. We previously identified the novel gene Metastasis Associated in Colon Cancer 1 (MACC1) in CRC and demonstrated its importance as metastasis inducer and prognostic biomarker. Here, we investigate the geographic expression pattern of MACC1 in colorectal adenocarcinoma and tumor buds in correlation with clinicopathological and molecular features for improvement of survival prognosis. METHODS We performed geographic MACC1 expression analysis in tumor center, invasive front and tumor buds on whole tissue sections of 187 well-characterized CRCs by immunohistochemistry. MACC1 expression in each geographic zone was analyzed with Mismatch repair (MMR)-status, BRAF/KRAS-mutations and CpG-island methylation. RESULTS MACC1 was significantly overexpressed in tumor tissue as compared to normal mucosa (p < 0.001). Within colorectal adenocarcinomas, a significant increase of MACC1 from tumor center to front (p = 0.0012) was detected. MACC1 was highly overexpressed in 55% tumor budding cells. Independent of geographic location, MACC1 predicted advanced pT and pN-stages, high grade tumor budding, venous and lymphatic invasion (p < 0.05). High MACC1 expression at the invasive front was decisive for prediction of metastasis (p = 0.0223) and poor survival (p = 0.0217). The geographic pattern of MACC1 did not correlate with MMR-status, BRAF/KRAS-mutations or CpG-island methylation. CONCLUSION MACC1 is differentially expressed in CRC. At the invasive front, MACC1 expression predicts best aggressive clinicopathological features, tumor budding, metastasis formation and poor survival outcome.

Adenocarcinomas of the upper third of the rectum and the rectosigmoid junction seem to have similar prognosis as colon cancers even without radiotherapy, SAKK 40/78

Purpose To investigate the prognosis of adenocarcinomas of the upper third of the rectum and the rectosigmoid-junction without radiotherapy. Methods Patients from a multicenter randomized controlled trial from 1987–1993 on adjuvant chemotherapy for R0-resected colorectal cancers with stage I–III disease were retrospectively allocated: cancers of the lower two-thirds of the rectum (11 cm or less from anal-verge, Group A, n = 205), of the upper-third of the rectum and rectosigmoid-junction (>11–20 cm from anal-verge, Group B, n = 142), and of the colon (>20 cm from anal-verge, Group C, n = 378). The total mesorectal excision (TME) technique had not been introduced yet. The adjuvant chemotherapy turned out to be ineffective. None of the patients received neoadjuvant or adjuvant radiotherapy. Results The patients had a regular follow-up (median, 8.0 years). The 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 0.54 (95%CI, 0.47–0.60) in Group A, 0.68 (95%CI, 0.60–0.75) in Group B, and 0.69 (95%CI, 0.64–0.74) in Group C. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 0.64 (95%CI, 0.57–0.71) in Group A, 0.79 (95%CI, 0.71–0.85) in Group B, and 0.77 (95%CI, 0.73–0.81) in Group C. Compared with Group C, patients in Group A had a significantly worse OS (hazard ratio [HR] for death 2.10) and a worse DFS (HR for relapse/death 1.93), while patients in Group B had a similar OS (HR 1.12) and DFS (HR 1.07). Conclusions Adenocarcinomas of the upper third of the rectum and the rectosigmoid-junction seem to have similar prognosis as colon cancers. Even for surgeons not familiar with the TME technique, preoperative radiotherapy may be avoided for most rectosigmoid cancers above 11 cm from anal-verge.

Loss of tapasin correlates with diminished CD8(+) T-cell immunity and prognosis in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND Tapasin is a crucial component of the major histocompatibility (MHC) class I antigen presentation pathway. Defects in this pathway can lead to tumor immune evasion. The aim of this study was to test whether tapasin expression correlates with CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) infiltration of colorectal cancer (CRC) and overall survival. METHODS A next-generation tissue microarray (ngTMA) of 198 CRC patients with full clinicopathological information was included in this study. TMA slides were immunostained for tapasin, MHC I and CD8. Marker expression was analyzed with immune-cell infiltration, patient survival and TNM-staging. RESULTS A reduction of tapasin expression strongly correlated with venous invasion (AUC 0.682, OR 2.7, p = 0.002; 95% CI 1.7-5.0), lymphatic invasion (AUC 0.620, OR 2.0, p = 0.005; 95 % CI 1.3-3.3), distant metastasis (AUC 0.727, OR 2.9, p = 0.004; 95% CI 1.4-5.9) and an infiltrative tumor border configuration (AUC 0.621, OR 2.2, p = 0.017; 95% CI 1.2-4.4). Further, tapasin expression was associated with CD8(+) CTL infiltration (AUC 0.729, OR 5.4, p < 0.001; 95% CI 2.6-11), and favorable overall survival (p = 0.004, HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.42-0.85). CONCLUSIONS Consistent with published functional data showing that tapasin promotes antigen presentation, as well as tumor immune recognition and destruction by CD8(+) CTLs, a reduction in tapasin expression is associated with tumor progression in CRC.

Fully automatic GBM segmentation in the TCGA-GBM dataset: Prognosis and correlation with VASARI features.

Reproducible definition and quantification of imaging biomarkers is essential. We evaluated a fully automatic MR-based segmentation method by comparing it to manually defined sub-volumes by experienced radiologists in the TCGA-GBM dataset, in terms of sub-volume prognosis and association with VASARI features. MRI sets of 109 GBM patients were downloaded from the Cancer Imaging archive. GBM sub-compartments were defined manually and automatically using the Brain Tumor Image Analysis (BraTumIA). Spearman's correlation was used to evaluate the agreement with VASARI features. Prognostic significance was assessed using the C-index. Auto-segmented sub-volumes showed moderate to high agreement with manually delineated volumes (range (r): 0.4 - 0.86). Also, the auto and manual volumes showed similar correlation with VASARI features (auto r = 0.35, 0.43 and 0.36; manual r = 0.17, 0.67, 0.41, for contrast-enhancing, necrosis and edema, respectively). The auto-segmented contrast-enhancing volume and post-contrast abnormal volume showed the highest AUC (0.66, CI: 0.55-0.77 and 0.65, CI: 0.54-0.76), comparable to manually defined volumes (0.64, CI: 0.53-0.75 and 0.63, CI: 0.52-0.74, respectively). BraTumIA and manual tumor sub-compartments showed comparable performance in terms of prognosis and correlation with VASARI features. This method can enable more reproducible definition and quantification of imaging based biomarkers and has potential in high-throughput medical imaging research.