859 resultados para Holt-Winters


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Glaciers in west China are the sources of the major great rivers in Asia, and the solid water resources are crucial to China and South Asia. Black carbon (BC) results in very complex climate effects not only in the atmosphere, but accelerates the melting after its deposit on the surface of snow/ice. As the main distributed area of glaciers in China, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Xinjiang region are abutted by South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia, and east China, and the atmospheric environment would be influenced by the BC emitted from these regions. Whereas, the BC’s temporal and spatial distributions for concentration in the mid and top troposphere in west China, its transport, and its radiative forcing after deposited on the snow/ice surface are not well understood at the present. In the field, we collected samples from surface snow, snow pits, ice core, and aerosol in the glaciers, analyzed BC content mainly by the thermo-oxidized method in the laboratory, and discussed temporal and spatial distributions for BC concentrations in glaciers, the transport, and its impacts on the environment. Several conclusions were derived as follows: 1_Spatial distribution and the impact on albedos for BC concentrations in snow/ice: the BC concentrations in the surface snow for the investigated glaciers could be placed in areas, the Tianshan Mountains > the central TP > the Pamirs > the Qilian Mountians > the Himalayas. This distribution could be attributed to the elevation of the glaciers, the topography of the TP, and more regional emissions. Probably significant impacts on the albedos of the glacier surface could be caused by BC deposits, and the estimated reduced albedos on the glaciers are 9.8% (the Zhadang glacier), 8.7% (the Miao’ergou Riverhead No.3 glacier), and 6.8% (the Kuitun River Haxilegen No.48 glacier), and 6.2% (the Dongkemadi glacier), and 5.3% (the La’nong glacier), and 4.2% (the Muztagata glacier), etc. 2_The temporal variance of BC concentrations in ice of the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG) and its climatic implications: major cations and anions (e.g., SO42- and Ca2+) concentrations in aerosols during summer monsoon seasons showed their close relationships with the sources of air masses, in which the variance of SO42- concentrations suggested the atmospheric environment over the ERG was significantly influenced by the aerosols from South Asia. BC record based on an ice core suggested its deposit was dominantly transported by monsoons in summers and by westerlies in other seasons, and the BC from South Asia in summers dominated the varying trend of its concentrations in the ice core and caused higher concentrations in summers than those in other seasons. In the past 50 yrs, BC concentrations showed fluctuations, whereas showed an increasing tread in the most recent decade, and exceeded 50 μg kg-1 in the summer of 2001; correspondingly, the radiative forcing caused by BC showed an increasing trend since 1990s, and exceeded 4.5 W m-2 in the summer of 2001. 3_Cabonaceous aerosols in the Nam Co region: organic carbon (OC) concentration accounted for ~95% and BC for ~5% in the total carbonaceous aerosol concentration, which was significantly influenced by summer precipitations. OC was dominantly derived from fossil fuel burning and BC from both fossil fuel and biomass burning. Trajectory analysis and aerosol optical depth suggested the atmospheric environment in the Nam Co region was most probably influenced by the emissions from South Asia. The potential source regions of air pollutants in the Nam Co regions in summers might be Bangladesh and east India, and in winters might be the Indo-gangetic basin. The scavenging ratio of atmospheric BC by rainfalls was less than those at other sites. West China is a less-developed region for industry, where BC concentrations in the atmosphere and snow/ice could be significantly influenced by the emissions from the abutted regions with rising industries (South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia). For example, snow/ice BC concentrations in the glaciers of the Parmirs, the Tianshan Mountains, and the Qilian Mountains in the northeast margin of the TP might be more influenced by the emissions from Centrial Asia (transported by the westerlies), those in the glaciers of the Himalayas might be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies), and atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols might also be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies). The BC concentrations in some glaciers might cause significant impacts on the albedos for the glaciers, and therefore enhanced the radiative forcings, for example, the ERG. The research on the relationships among atmospheric and snow/ice BC and its radiative forcing, variance of snow cover, mass balance of glaciers, and climate forcing would be needed in future.

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http://www.archive.org/details/missionstheirris003069mbp

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The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.

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This study was undertaken to investigate the general biology, including the reproductive cycle and health status, of two clam taxa in Irish waters, with particular reference to the Irish Sea area. Monthly samples of the soft shell clam, Mya arenaria, were collected from Bannow Bay, Co. Wexford, Ireland, for sixteen months, and of the razor clam, Ensis spp. from the Skerries region (Irish Sea) between June 2010 and September 2011. In 2010, M. arenaria in Bannow Bay matured over the summer months, with both sexes either ripe or spawning by August. The gonads of both sexes of E. siliqua developed over autumn and winter 2010, with the first spawning individuals being recorded in January 2011. Two unusually cold winters, followed by a warmer than average spring, appear to have affected M. arenaria and E. siliqua gametogenesis at these sites. It was noted that wet weight of E. siliqua dropped significantly in the summer of both 2010 and 2011, after spawning, which may impact on the economic viability of fishing during this period. Additional samples of M. arenaria were collected at Flaxfort (Ireland), and Ensis spp. at Oxwich (Wales), and the pathology of all clams was examined using both histological and molecular methods. No pathogenic conditions were observed in M. arenaria while Prokaryote inclusions, trematode parasites, Nematopsis spp. and inflammatory pathologies were observed at low incidences in razor clams from Ireland but not from Wales; the first time these conditions have been reported in Ensis spp. in northern European waters. Mya arenaria from sites in Europe and eastern and western North America were investigated for genetic variation using both mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and 16S ribosomal RNA genes) and nuclear markers (10 microsatellite loci). Both mitochondrial CO1 and all nuclear markers showed reduced levels of variation in certain European samples, with significant differences in haplotype and allelic composition between most samples, particularly those from the two different continents, but with the same common haplotypes or alleles throughout the range. The appearance of certain unique rare haplotypes and microsatellite alleles in the European samples suggest a complicated origin involving North American colonization but also possible southern European Pleistocene refugia. Specimens of Ensis spp. were obtained from five coastal areas around Ireland and Wales and species-specific PCR primers were used to amplify the internal transcribed spacer region 1 (ITS1) and the mitochondrial DNA CO1 gene and all but 15 razor clams were identified as Ensis siliqua. Future investigations should focus on continued monitoring of reproductive biology and pathology of the two clam taxa (in particular, to assess the influence of environmental change), and on genetics of southern European M. arenaria and sequencing the CO1 gene in Ensis individuals to clarify species identity

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Little is known about the biology of the softshell clam in Europe, despite it being identified as a potential species to culture for food in the future. Monthly samples of the softshell clam, Mya arenaria, were collected intertidally from Co. Wexford, Ireland, over a period of sixteen months. The mean weight of sampled individuals was 7 4 ± 4 . 9  g and mean length was 8 . 2 ± 0 . 2  cm. Histological examination revealed a female-to-male ratio of 1 : 1.15. In 2010, M. arenaria at this site matured over the summer months, with both sexes either ripe or spawning by August. A single spawning event was recorded in 2010, completed by November. Two unusually cold winters, followed by a warmer-than-average spring, appear to have affected M. arenaria gametogenesis in this area, potentially affecting the time of spawning, fertilisation success, and recruitment of this species. No hermaphrodites were observed in the samples collected, nor were any pathogens observed. Timing of development and spawning is compared with the coasts of eastern North America and with other European coasts.

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BACKGROUND: Previous clinical efficacy trials failed to support the continued development of recombinant gp120 (rgp120) as a candidate HIV vaccine. However, the recent RV144 HIV vaccine trial in Thailand showed that a prime/boost immunization strategy involving priming with canarypox vCP1521 followed by boosting with rgp120 could provide significant, although modest, protection from HIV infection. Based on these results, there is renewed interest in the development of rgp120 based antigens for follow up vaccine trials, where this immunization approach can be applied to other cohorts at high risk for HIV infection. Of particular interest are cohorts in Africa, India, and China that are infected with clade C viruses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A panel of 10 clade C rgp120 envelope proteins was expressed in 293 cells, purified by immunoaffinity chromatography, and used to immunize guinea pigs. The resulting sera were collected and analyzed in checkerboard experiments for rgp120 binding, V3 peptide binding, and CD4 blocking activity. Virus neutralization studies were carried out with two different assays and two different panels of clade C viruses. A high degree of cross reactivity against clade C and clade B viruses and viral proteins was observed. Most, but not all of the immunogens tested elicited antibodies that neutralized tier 1 clade B viruses, and some sera neutralized multiple clade C viruses. Immunization with rgp120 from the CN97001 strain of HIV appeared to elicit higher cross neutralizing antibody titers than the other antigens tested. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While all of the clade C antigens tested were immunogenic, some were more effective than others in eliciting virus neutralizing antibodies. Neutralization titers did not correlate with rgp120 binding, V3 peptide binding, or CD4 blocking activity. CN97001 rgp120 elicited the highest level of neutralizing antibodies, and should be considered for further HIV vaccine development studies.

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A note about temperature observations off the southern coast of New England published in the bulletin of the United States Fish Commission. List of papers containing results of work done at the MBA but not published in the Journal. An important prosecution under the Sea Fisheries Regulation Act 1888, following the dumping of sludge on a trawling ground. Details of a trawl net which seems likely to prove useful to vessels for which a beam trawl is prohibited by its size. Notes and observations on: Gadus esmarkii (Nilss.),Phycis blennioides (Brunn), Sebastes norvegicus (Ascau), Crystallogobius Nilssonii (Dub. and Kor.), Arnoglossus laterna (Walb), Raia alba (Lacep.), young lobsters, a new British nemertine and the culture of sea fish.

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This covers the relation of size to sexual maturity in Pleuronectids, the destruction of immature fish in the North Sea and proposed remedial measures.

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Notes and observations on: Polyprion cerniu, Val. Scomber scomber Linn (the mackerel). Year-old pilchards. Muggiaea atlantica. Hippoglossus vulgaris, Linn. (the halibut). Rhombus maximus, Linn (the turbot).

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The distrubution of Unciola crenatipalma, Bate. Notes and observations on: Raniceps raninus, Linn. Chimaera monstrosa, Linn. Lumpenus lampetraeformis, Walbaum. Gastrosteus pungitius, Linn. Pleuronectes microcephalus, Donov. Scorpaena dactyloptera, De la Roche.

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