853 resultados para Hierarchical logistic model
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This dissertation studied the determinants and consequences of corporate reputation. It explored how firm-, industry-, and country-level factors influence the general public’s assessment of a firm’s reputation and how this reputation assessment impacted the firm’s strategic actions and organizational outcomes. The three empirical essays are grounded on separate theoretical paradigms in strategy, organizational theory, and corporate governance. The first essay used signaling theory to investigate firm-, industry-, and country-level determinants of individual-level corporate reputation assessments. Using a hierarchical linear model, it tested the theory based on individual evaluations of the largest companies across countries. Results indicated that variables at multiple analysis levels simultaneously impact individual level reputation assessments. Interactions were also found between industry- and country-level factors. Results confirmed the multi-level nature of signaling influences on reputation assessments. Building on a stakeholder-power approach to corporate governance, the second essay studied how differences in the power and preferences of three stakeholder groups—shareholders, creditors, and workers—across countries influence the general public’s reputation assessments of corporations. Examining the largest companies across countries, the study found that while the influence of stock market return is stronger in societies where shareholders have more power, social performance has a more significant role in shaping reputation evaluations in societies with stronger labor rights. Unexpectedly, when creditors have greater power, the influence of financial stability on reputation assessment becomes weaker. Exploring the consequences of reputation, the third essay investigated the specific effects of intangible assets on strategic actions and organizational outcomes. Particularly, it individually studied the impacts of acquirer acquisition experience, corporate reputation, and approach toward social responsibilities as well as their combined effect on market reactions to acquisition announcements. Using an event study of acquisition announcements, it confirmed the significant impacts of both action-specific (acquisition experience) and general (reputation and social performance) intangible assets on market expectations of acquisition outcomes. Moreover, the analysis demonstrated that reputation magnifies the impact of acquisition experience on market response to acquisition announcements. In conclusion, this dissertation tried to advance and extend the application of management and organizational theories by explaining the mechanisms underlying antecedents and consequences of corporate reputation.
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Foundations support constitute one of the types of legal entities of private law forged with the purpose of supporting research projects, education and extension and institutional, scientific and technological development of Brazil. Observed as links of the relationship between company, university, and government, foundations supporting emerge in the Brazilian scene from the principle to establish an economic platform of development based on three pillars: science, technology and innovation – ST&I. In applied terms, these ones operate as tools of debureaucratisation making the management between public entities more agile, especially in the academic management in accordance with the approach of Triple Helix. From the exposed, the present study has as purpose understanding how the relation of Triple Helix intervenes in the fund-raising process of Brazilian foundations support. To understand the relations submitted, it was used the interaction models University-Company-Government recommended by Sábato and Botana (1968), the approach of the Triple Helix proposed by Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff (2000), as well as the perspective of the national innovation systems discussed by Freeman (1987, 1995), Nelson (1990, 1993) and Lundvall (1992). The research object of this study consists of 26 state foundations that support research associated with the National Council of the State Foundations of Supporting Research - CONFAP, as well as the 102 foundations in support of IES associated with the National Council of Foundations of Support for Institutions of Higher Education and Scientific and Technological Research – CONFIES, totaling 128 entities. As a research strategy, this study is considered as an applied research with a quantitative approach. Primary research data were collected using the e-mail Survey procedure. Seventy-five observations were collected, which corresponds to 58.59% of the research universe. It is considering the use of the bootstrap method in order to validate the use of the sample in the analysis of results. For data analysis, it was used descriptive statistics and multivariate data analysis techniques: the cluster analysis; the canonical correlation and the binary logistic regression. From the obtained canonical roots, the results indicated that the dependency relationship between the variables of relations (with the actors of the Triple Helix) and the financial resources invested in innovation projects is low, assuming the null hypothesis of this study, that the relations of the Triple Helix do not have interfered positively or negatively in raising funds for investments in innovation projects. On the other hand, the results obtained with the cluster analysis indicate that entities which have greater quantitative and financial amounts of projects are mostly large foundations (over 100 employees), which support up to five IES, publish management reports and use in their capital structure, greater financing of the public department. Finally, it is pertinent to note that the power of the classification of the logistic model obtained in this study showed high predictive capacity (80.0%) providing to the academic community replication in environments of similar analysis.
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Unplanned hospital readmissions increase health and medical care costs and indicate lower the lower quality of the healthcare services. Hence, predicting patients at risk to be readmitted is of interest. Using administrative data of patients being treated in the medical centers and hospitals in the Dalarna County, Sweden, during 2008 – 2016 two risk prediction models of hospital readmission are built. The first model relies on the logistic regression (LR) approach, predicts correctly 2,648 out of 3,392 observed readmission in the test dataset, reaching a c-statistics of 0.69. The second model is built using random forests (RF) algorithm; correctly predicts 2,183 readmission (out of 3,366) and 13,198 non-readmission events (out of 18,982). The discriminating ability of the best performing RF model (c-statistic 0.60) is comparable to that of the logistic model. Although the discriminating ability of both LR and RF risk prediction models is relatively modest, still these models are capable to identify patients running high risk of hospital readmission. These patients can then be targeted with specific interventions, in order to prevent the readmission, improve patients’ quality of life and reduce health and medical care costs.
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Nesta tese procurou-se demonstrar a valoração do efluente do processamento de pescado por incorporação dos nutrientes em Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli a diferentes temperaturas. Para tanto o trabalho é composto de cinco artigos que objetivaram avaliar sob o ponto de vista do tratamento do efluente pela cianobactéria Aphanothece e a separação e avaliação da biomassa gerada. O primeiro artigo intitula-se “Influência da temperatura na remoção de nutrientes do efluente da indústria de pescado por Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli”, e teve por objetivo avaliar a influência da temperatura (10, 20 e 30ºC) em um sistema de tratamento pela cianobactéria Aphanothece na remoção de matéria orgânica, nitrogênio e fósforo do efluente oriundo do processamento de pescado. A análise dos resultados mostrou que a temperatura influenciou significativamente na remoção de DQO, NTK, N-NH4 + e P-PO4 -3 . Para os experimentos a 20 e 30ºC todos os limites estabelecidos para os parâmetros avaliados foram atingidos. O segundo artigo intitulado “Efeito de coagulantes no efluente da indústria da pesca visando à separação de biomassa quando tratado por cianobactéria” avaliou o efeito da concentração e pH de dois tipos de coagulantes, cloreto férrico (FeCl3) e sulfato de alumínio (Al2(SO4)3), na separação da biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli cultivada em efluente da indústria da pesca, assim como a remoção de matéria orgânica e nutrientes do efluente. Os resultados indicaram que o coagulante FeCl3 foi mais eficaz na remoção de todos os parâmetros testados. No que concerne à separação da biomassa, com um número de seis lavagens foi removido cerca de 97,6% da concentração de FeCl3 adicionado inicialmente. O terceiro artigo com o título “Caracterização da biomassa de Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli gerada no efluente da indústria da pesca em diferentes temperaturas de cultivo” avaliou a composição química da biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli quando desenvolvida em meio de cultivo padrão BG11 e no efluente do processamento de pescado. O quarto artigo teve como título “Influência do meio de cultivo e temperatura em compostos nitrogenados na cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli” objetivou avaliar o teor de compostos nitrogenados presentes na biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli quando cultivada em meio padrão e no efluente da indústria da pesca nas diferentes fases de crescimento. Para o estudo da composição química e nitrogenados no efluente foram realizados experimentos nas temperaturas de 10, 20 e 30ºC. As concentrações de proteína, cinzas e pigmentos aumentaram com o aumento da temperatura. Por outro lado, foi observada uma redução do teor de lipídios e carboidratos com o aumento da temperatura. O íon amônio juntamente com os ácidos nucléicos representa uma importante fração do nitrogênio não protéico presente na biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece. Ficou demonstrada a influência do meio de cultivo na concentração de nitrogênio, bem como a determinação de proteína pelo método de Kjeldahl superestima a concentração protéica em cianobactérias. O quinto artigo intitulado “Produção de proteína unicelular a partir do efluente do processamento do pescado: modelagem preditiva e simulação” avaliou a produção de proteína unicelular através do cultivo da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli no efluente da indústria da pesca. Os dados cinéticos de crescimento celular foram ajustados a quatro modelos matemáticos (Logístico, Gompertz, Gompertz Modificado e Baranyi). Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo Logístico foi considerado o mais adequado para descrever a formação de biomassa. A análise preditiva mostrou a possibilidade da obtenção de 1,66, 18,96 e 57,36 kg.m-3.d-1 de biomassa por volume do reator em 1000 h de processo contínuo, para as temperaturas de 10, 20 e 30ºC, respectivamente.
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Stakeholder engagement is important for successful management of natural resources, both to make effective decisions and to obtain support. However, in the context of coastal management, questions remain unanswered on how to effectively link decisions made at the catchment level with objectives for marine biodiversity and fisheries productivity. Moreover, there is much uncertainty on how to best elicit community input in a rigorous manner that supports management decisions. A decision support process is described that uses the adaptive management loop as its basis to elicit management objectives, priorities and management options using two case studies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The approach described is then generalised for international interest. A hierarchical engagement model of local stakeholders, regional and senior managers is used. The result is a semi-quantitative generic elicitation framework that ultimately provides a prioritised list of management options in the context of clearly articulated management objectives that has widespread application for coastal communities worldwide. The case studies show that demand for local input and regional management is high, but local influences affect the relative success of both engagement processes and uptake by managers. Differences between case study outcomes highlight the importance of discussing objectives prior to suggesting management actions, and avoiding or minimising conflicts at the early stages of the process. Strong contributors to success are a) the provision of local information to the community group, and b) the early inclusion of senior managers and influencers in the group to ensure the intellectual and time investment is not compromised at the final stages of the process. The project has uncovered a conundrum in the significant gap between the way managers perceive their management actions and outcomes, and community's perception of the effectiveness (and wisdom) of these same management actions.
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This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.
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This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.
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Fondé sur l’analyse des données produites par l’enquête « 1-2-3 » de 2012 en République Démocratique du Congo, cet article propose une approche quantitative de l’automédication. Il fait apparaître, le caractère relativement circonscrit de cette pratique dans les déclarations des individus confrontés à un épisode de maladie et tente de rendre compte des choix qui les guident : consulter un professionnel de santé, affirmer recourir à l’automédication, s’abstenir de se soigner ou recourir à l’automédication par défaut. La construction d’un modèle logistique multinomial non-ordonné permet à cet égard de comparer les déterminants de ces décisions, considérées sous la forme d’une double alternative : consulter ou recourir à l’automédication, et, pour ceux qui ne sollicitent pas un professionnel de santé, s’automédiquer ou s’abstenir de toute démarche thérapeutique. L’article pointe ainsi les contraintes (économiques, géographiques, sociales et culturelles) qui pèsent sur ces choix tout en soulignant comment les individus cherchent à s’en affranchir.
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El presente estudio tiene como objetivo encontrar y analizar los efectos causales de diversos factores socioeconómicos y demográficos en la satisfacción con la vida de los hogares de Medellín. Para ello, se estima un modelo logístico, categorizando en dos grupos las variables explicativas: los aspectos inherentes al ser y las características relacionadas al tener. Los principales resultados sugieren que estar soltero en relación con otro estado civil tiene un efecto negativo en el bienestar subjetivo, así como el hecho de ser afrodescendiente con respecto a otro grupo étnico. Por el lado del tener, cabe resaltar que mayores niveles de educación y estratos socioeconómicos más altos incrementan el bienestar subjetivo. Se concluye que tanto las características del ser como las del tener son fundamentales para explicar la satisfacción con la vida, y por tanto, para la toma de decisiones de política pública.
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© 2014 Cises This work is distributed with License Creative Commons Attribution-Non commercial-No derivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-BC-ND 4.0)
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En este estudio se analiza la asociación entre la exposición a diversos factores —de biotipo, socioeconómicos y patológicos— y la alteración del perfil de lípidos sanguíneos (dislipidemia) en pacientes adscritos al Área de Salud de Montes de Oca. Se realizó un estudio de caso-control, con un total de 135 casos e igual cantidad de controles, entre 20 y 65 años, a los que se les hizo un perfil de lípidos sanguíneos durante el año 2006. Las variables estudiadas fueron: edad, sexo, índice de masa corporal, tipo de aseguramiento, estado de portador de hipertensión arterial, de diabetes mellitus o de ambas patologías crónicas a la vez. Se realizó un análisis univariado, seguido de un análisis multivariado, mediante un modelo logístico múltiple. La única variable asociada con la dislipidemia fue el índice de masa corporal, tanto en el análisis univariado como en el multivariado; las variables restantes no mostraron asociación estadística. Aquellos pacientes con mayor índice de masa corporal presentan un mayor riesgo de tener un perfil alterado de lípidos sanguíneos.
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Past research has shown that having a large population of ethnic minorities beyond the neighborhood level arouses intolerance in the majority. However, this paper presents the argument that the effect of minority size on tolerance depends on minority type: the less subject the minority is to negative stereotyping, the more favorable the effect that minority size has on tolerance. In this study, a hierarchical linear model was applied to a dataset on advanced and emerging democracies in Europe. The analysis shows that when the duration and level of democracy are controlled for, ethnic tolerance was associated positively with native minority size and negatively with foreign population size.
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Fishing trials with monofilament gill nets and longlines using small hooks were carried out at the same fishing grounds in Cyclades (Aegean Sea) over 1 year. Four sizes of MUSTAD brand, round bent, flatted sea hooks (Quality 2316 DT, numbers 15, 13, 12 and 11) and four mesh sizes of 22, 24, 26 and 28 turn nominal bar length monofilament gill nets were used. Significant differences in the catch size frequency distributions of the two gears were found for four out of five of the most important species caught by both the gears (Diplodus annularis, Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus erythrinus, Scorpaena porcus and Serranus cabrilla), with longlines catching larger fish and a wider size range than gill nets. Whereas longline catch size frequency distributions for most species for the different hook sizes were generally highly overlapped, suggesting little or no differences in size selectivity, gill net catch size frequency distributions clearly showed size selection, with larger mesh sizes catching larger fish. A variety of models were fitted to the gill net data, with the lognormal providing the best fit in most cases. A maximum likelihood method was also used to estimate the parameters of the logistic model for the longline data. Because of the highly overlapped longline catch size frequency distributions parameters could only be estimated for two species. This study shows that the two static gears have different impacts in terms of size selection. This information will be useful for the more effective management of these small-scale, multi-species and multi-gear fisheries. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Fishing trials with monofilament gill nets and longlines using small hooks were carried out in Algarve waters (southern Portugal) over a one-year period. Four hook sizes of "Mustad" brand, round bent, flatted sea hooks (Quality 2316 DT, numbers 15, 13, 12 and 11) and four mesh sizes of 25, 30, 35 and 40 mm (bar length) monofilament gill nets were used. Commercially valuable sea breams dominated the longline catches while small pelagics were relatively more important in the gill nets. Significant differences in the catch size frequency distributions of the two gears were found for all the most important species caught by both gears (Boops boops, Diplodus bellottii, Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus acarne, Pagellus erythrinus, Spondyiosoma cantharus, Scomber japonicus and Scorpaena notata), with longlines catching larger fish and a wider size range than nets. Whereas longline catch size frequency distributions for most species for the different hook sizes were generally highly overlapped, suggesting little or no differences in size selectivity, gill net catch size frequency distributions clearly showed size selection. A variety of models were fitted to the gill net and hook data using the SELECT method, while the parameters of the logistic model were estimated by maximum likelihood for the longline data. The bi-normal model gave the best fits for most of the species caught with gill nets, while the logistic model adequately described hook selectivity. The results of this study show that the two static gears compete for many of the same species and have different impacts in terms of catch composition and size selectivity. This information will I;e useful for the improved management of these small-scale fisheries in which many different gears compete for scarce resources.
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Trammel net size selectivity was studied for the most important metiers in four southern European areas: the Cantabrian Sea (Atlantic, Basque Country, Spain), the Algarve (Atlantic, southern Portugal), the Gulf of Cadiz (Atlantic, Spain) and the Cyclades Islands (Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Greece). These metiers were: cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) and soles (Solea senegalensis, Microchirus azevia, Synaptura lusitanica) in the Algarve and the Gulf of Cadiz, sole (Solea solea) in the Cantabrian Sea and mixed fin-fish in the Cyclades. In each area, experimental trammel nets of six different types (combinations of two large outer panel mesh sizes and three small inner panel meshes) were constructed. Fishing trials were carried out on a seasonal basis (four seasons in the Cantabrian Sea, Algarve and Cyclades and two seasons in the Gulf of Cadiz) with chartered commercial fishing vessels. Overall, size selectivity was estimated for 17 out of 28 species for which sufficient data were available. Trammel nets generally caught a wide size range of the most important species, with length frequency distributions that were skewed to the right and/or bi-modal. In many cases the length frequency distributions of the different nets were highly overlapped. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test also showed that the large outer panel meshes generally had no effect in terms of size selectivity, while the opposite was true for the small inner panel ones. Six different selectivity models (normal scale, normal location, gamma, log-normal, bi-modal and gamma semi-Wileman) were fitted to data for the most abundant species in the four areas. For fish, the bi-modal model provided the best fits for the majority of the data sets, with the uni-modal models giving poor fits in most cases. For Sepia officinalis, where trammelling or pocketing was the method of capture in 100% of the cases, the logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood was judged to be more appropriate for describing the size selective properties of the trammel nets. Our results, which are among the first ones on trammel net selectivity in European waters, will be useful for evaluating the impacts of competing gear for the socio-economically important small-scale static gear fisheries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.