Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

The determinants of online loan applications from small businesses

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine both the characteristics of the business customers and the types of venture which make use of online loan applications. Despite the growth in the use of technology in banking and the advent of online banking, little research has been conducted on the factors underlying online loan application behaviour amongst business banking customers. Design/methodology/approach – A multivariate analysis is conducted on a USA dataset to empirically test the hypotheses derived in this paper. The empirical evidence is drawn from the US Survey of Small Business Finances, which contains 3,561 sample ventures, representing 5.3 million small businesses in the USA. Findings – The paper finds that online loan behaviour is largely determined by the characteristics of the entrepreneur, rather than that of the venture. It is also found that factors that trust, evident in the length of the relationship between the applicants and their primary lender, is important. Moderating these effects is further evidence that suggests the number of lenders and distance between lenders and applicants has a marked effect on online loan behaviour. Originality/value – This paper identifies the factors determining small business online loan application behaviour. This is important because the nature of online loan behaviour is changing the existing relationships between banks and customers. Whilst online loan applications afford banks the opportunity to substantially reduce costs, the danger is that long term relationships with customers are harder to cement.

Distribution of potential suitable hammers and transport of hammer tools and nuts by wild capuchin monkeys

Selection and transport of objects to use as tools at a distant site are considered to reflect planning. Ancestral humans transported tools and tool-making materials as well as food items. Wild chimpanzees also transport selected hammer tools and nuts to anvil sites. To date, we had no other examples of selection and transport of stone tools among wild nonhuman primates. Wild bearded capuchins (Cebus libidinosus) in Boa Vista (Piaui, Brazil) routinely crack open palm nuts and other physically well-protected foods on level surfaces (anvils) using stones (hammers) as percussive tools. Here we present indirect evidence, obtained by a transect census, that stones suitable for use as hammers are rare (study 1) and behavioral evidence of hammer transport by twelve capuchins (study 2). To crack palm nuts, adults transported heavier and harder stones than to crack other less resistant food items. These findings show that wild capuchin monkeys selectively transport stones of appropriate size and hardness to use as hammers, thus exhibiting, like chimpanzees and humans, planning in tool-use activities.

Öppna arenor och slutna rum : några kommunikationskonsulter i Dalarna ser på opinionsbildning

Syftet med denna uppsats är att ta reda på hur lokala kommunikationskonsulter i Falun/Borlänge-regionen ser på opinionsbildning via professionella konsulter. De centrala begrepp som avhandlas är PR, opinionsbildning och lobbying.Den teoretiska ram som omger undersökningen består av de teoribyggen som skapats av Jürgen Habermas, James E. Grunig och Larsåke Larsson. Habermas ställer sig tveksam till den demokratiska nyttan av professionell opinionsbildning, Grunig är mer positiv och Larsson ser både för- och nackdelar med PR-verksamheten. Larssons undersökning av opinionskonsulter från 2005 refereras också.Undersökningen bygger på intervjuer med ett antal kommunikationskonsulter verksamma i Falun och Borlänge. Den lokala marknaden för opinionsbildande uppdrag diskuteras, men också huruvida politiska uppdrag förser byråerna med politisk färg. Huruvida medarbetarnas engagemang är viktigt och hur hög statusen på opinionsbildande uppdrag är ventileras, samt vilka arbetsmetoder som används. Intervjuerna behandlar också förekomsten av lobbying på lokal nivå. Till slut redogör de intervjuade för sin syn på hur opinionsbildning, PR och lobbying via konsulter påverkar demokratin.Under slutsatser diskuteras resultatet i relation till den teoretiska ramen. Att PR- och reklambranscherna alltmer växer samman och att opinionsbildning är ett vanligt inslag i många projekt är ett faktum som också skymtat fram i den teoretiska ramen. Men reklam- och PR-metoder integreras också i politiken, på gott och ont. Följaktligen växer den gråzon som finns mellan de olika typerna av kommunikation och mellan opinionsbildande och icke-opinionsbildande uppdrag. Det försvårar gränsdragning och tydlighet, men skapar nya kreativa möjligheter.Att den ökade användningen av kommunikationskonsulter kanske kan bidra till en orättvis fördel för resursstarka organisationer diskuteras. Ny teknik, t.ex. Internet, kan dock eventuellt vara den motvikt som gör det möjligt även för resurssvaga grupper att höras i det offentliga samtalet. Kommunikation som maktfaktor tas även upp utifrån termer som lobbying och medias dagordningsfunktion.Några aspekter av den outnyttjade potential som PR har ventileras också. PR som metod är en outnyttjad resurs på det lokala planet, något som kan bero både på okunskap hos de lokala kunderna och ett traditionellt arbetssätt hos byråerna. Utifrån intervjusvaren framkommer att både byråerna, deras kunder och media på landsorten skulle gynnas av ett större samarbete.Resultaten av intervjuerna stöder mycket i den teoretiska ramen, medan somligt förkastas. Som sammanfattning kan sägas att opinionsbildning via konsulter kan användas för både gott och ont. Vilket som blir resultatet handlar som oftast om etik, ansvar, öppenhet och professionalitet.ABSTRACTThe primary target for this report is to find out how communication consultants in the region of Falun and Borlänge views the practice of establishing public opinions by using professional public relations consultants. The concepts in focus are PR, the moulding of public opinion and lobbying.The theoretical framework surrounding this report is the writings by Jürgen Habermas, James E. Grunig and Larsåke Larsson. Habermas has doubts as to the democratic use of professional consultants working with public opinions, Grunig has a somewhat more positive approach and Larsson sees both advantages and disadvantages in a democratic sense with the PR industry. Larssons research concerning consultants working with the moulding of public opinions from 2005 is also reviewed. The research is carried out by interviewing some communication consultants working in the Falun /Borlänge- area. The local market for commissions concerning public opinions is discussed, but also if and how political commissions are forcing a political stamp upon the firms engaging in such commissions. The importance of personal commitment in the consultants and the level of prominence commissions concerning public opinion has in the business is discussed, but also which methods is used and preferred. The interviews also deal with the practice of lobbying in the local arena. Finally the participants state their views on how the moulding of public opinion, PR and lobbying effects the democracy. Conclusively, the result is put in relation to the theories earlier mentioned. The public relations market is merging with the advertising business, that is a fact, and establishing public opinion is a common element in a lot of projects. But methods used for advertising and PR are also integrated in the political sphere, for good and bad. That has made the distinction between different kinds of communication harder, thereby enhancing the difficulties of establishing boundaries and achieving clarity. Yet at the same time it facilitates new creative opportunities.The growing use of communication consultants may contribute to unfair advantages for organisations with large economic resources. New technical development though, such as the Internet for example, may prove to simplify communication for groups with lesser economic power. Communication as an aspect of power is being discussed in terms of lobbying and the agenda setting power of media.Some aspects of the unused potential that lies within PR are also in focus in this report. PR as a method is an unused resource in the local market, which can be due to the local clients lack of knowledge but also to the traditional work carried out by the communication firms. The findings of the interviews show that both communication firms, their clients and the local media would benefit from greater cooperation.The theoretical base in this work is mostly supported by the interviews, though a few of the findings does not agree. The moulding of public opinions by professional consultants can be used for both good and bad. What the result will be is, not surprisingly, a question of ethics, responsibility, openness and professionalism.

Varför ska man dölja det? : -en kvalitativ studie av identitet i förhållande till läs-och skrivsvårigheter

In schools today, we expect student performances and achievements to be exceptional. Having good reading and writing skills are essential if students want to excel at their school assignments. Students with reading and writing difficulties have to work much harder than their other classmates. Their having to work harder coupled with being teenagers and facing all the uncertainties which are present at that age, these students face the difficult task of trying to find out who they are and who they want to be. In other words, they try to create their own individual identities. This study investigates the experiences of students with reading and writing difficulties in their interactions with other students and school personnel, in different situations. The collection of data has been done through group interviews. Thirteen, 15 year old students participated in these interviews. Some of the factors which characterise a hermeneutic approach have helped to form the basis on which the study lies. A hermeneutic approach suggests that the data collected is sorted and analysed to enable the identification of differences and patterns. These patterns are arranged to give results that are subjective and which also show an interpretation of the data collected. The results show that students are more comfortable with their identities, when they are diagnosed or made aware that their performances in school are directly affected by their reading and writing difficulties. The study also shows that having reading and writing difficulties tells the students who they are but, at the same time, plays an important role in their interactions with other classmates and adults. The outcomes of these interactions greatly affect the formation of their identities. The way in which school personnel treat students is also shown to be of great importance.

Informationssäkerhet inom grafiska företag

The study shows the current need for security solutions concerning work with information in different areas.Investigations will show important solutions for printers’ needs to meet the increasingly harder demands forfast and safe digital communications. Important factors to be analyzed in the investigations are: access todifferent types of information, workers authority of information, access to the data base register internallyand externally, production solutions for an effective fault detection and data base solutions fororders and distribution.Planned and unplanned stops result in a standard of value in interruptions. Internal data bases areprotected by so-called “Fire Walls”, “Watch Dogs” and Virtual Private Networks. Offset plates are locked infor a definitive range of time. Subsequent destruction and remaining sheets are shredded and recycled. Alldocumentation is digital, in business control systems, which guarantees that no important documents arelying around in working places. Fault detection work is facilitated by the ability to fully track the order numberson incoming orders.

Power Management Controls

In an office building in the US the office equipment uses about 7% of the total electricity use. Eventhough this is a low number, there is still a reason to save more energy, especially since one third of theenergy savings are lost when power management is not enabled.The core in the project ”Power Management Controls” is to develop a voluntary standard, The UserInterface Standard, that manufacturers of office equipment can use as a reference when they developnew equipment and design new interfaces. The interface is an important part of the use of powermanagement and doing this should increase the use of power management and save more energy. Theinterfaces are ofter hidden or inconsistent and confusing, which makes it harder for the user tounderstand power management. A more consistent interface makes it easier for the user to understandthe meaning of an interface and power management itselfThe standard consists of six different parts, which describe what can be done to achieve a consistentinterface. The standard also describes the part of the project called Dynamic Behavior. This part isconcentrating on the interfaces and the behavior of the device over time, which is important for the userto understand.The purpose of this degree project is to study and participate in the project ”Power ManagementControls”, and to understand what is being done to save more energy.

Grafisk profilering med praktisk tillämpning på IUC Dalarna

This degree project is a study of graphics profiling with a practical application on IUC Dalarna.The competition between companies is getting harder and harder. Competing goods and services hasa tendency to be more and more equal to each other in respect of quality and value. The customer choosesthe Company with a high reputation and confidence. This is one of the reasons why a companyshould strengthen their company profile. The graphic profile is an important part of the company profileand it gives positive signals to the company spirit and customers.The degree project contains a guide to graphics profiling. The different phases are research, analysis,construction of graphic material and presentation. The guide is put into practise at IUC Dalarna andthe result is documented in a graphic manual.

Omslagstrender - en studie av vad som höjer uppmärksamhetsvärdet hos tidskrifter

Through interviews, a questionnaire survey and an in­depth analysis of the Swedish magazines Veckorevyn and Magazine Café has a number of parameters been made visible. It was difficult to obtain an unambiguous result when the journal's target audience is crucial for the cover design. Nevertheless, we can generally say that the transparent varnish of covers, PMS colors and enclosing the journal in plastic do not increase the attention value, as this occurs in many magazines. Due to today's tough competition among journals, we believe that they will need to niche themselves much harder to survive. We also believe that the new, big trend is that more covers will become more plain and stylistically pure, with one big communicating image and fewer coverlines, as many covers were designed during the 1940s.

Mässingslegeringar med låg blyhalt för svarvade komponenter ämnade för dricksvatten

This thesis is about brass alloys with low lead levels for manufacturing of turned components destined for human consumption. Is it technically possible, economically viable and environmentally necessary to produce lead-free brass alloys? Turning tests and leaching tests has been carried out in low-lead brass. The result of the tests carried out show that it is technically possible to produce faucets in low-leaded brass, but since these alloys are harder and less ductile, it takes more power and more cooling when it is processed. There should be more reality-based tests in regular machines that belong in the line of manufacturing. Tests is needed to find out which tool materials, cutting angles, cooling, etc. which are needed to manufacture products with the right surface, dimensions, durability, etc. One thing that no one knows today is the lifetime of a faucet made of low-lead brass. If these faucet’s do not have a higher life than that made in CW 602 N, it is a major strain on nature to produce these in low-lead brass, then to maintain production of the faucets as it is today. No information has come from the Boverket of tougher requirements for lead content in brass. This makes it difficult to know how much effort that is needed to replace lead. A legal requirement or to lose market areas is otherwise a good motivation to move forward.

Att hitta och utforska : Om Damien Echols autobiografi Life After Death

This paper investigates the autobiography of Damien Echols. The autobiographical subject, Echols, depicts his life as a marginalized youth during the nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties in Arkansas, USA. It also explores the years that Echols spent on Death Row after having been arrested along with two other youths for the murder of three eight-year-old boys; a crime all three of the accused denied having committed. In 2011, after eighteen years of incarceration, the three now grown up men were released from prison. The author of this paper discusses biography and especially autobiography as a genre and explores to what extent memories represent the actual life the autobiographical subject, Echols, has lived and if memories are or can be truthful. In order to find the underlying meanings of the autobiography, the author of this paper uses as a starting-point a psychoanalytic approach towards Echol’s text. Key terms that will undergo a more close inspection are horror, water and home. This paper concludes with the notion that autobiographical objective truth does not exist.

Sociologin, hybriderna och den sociala verkligheten : exemplet kärnavfall

Sociology, hybrids and social reality: the case of nuclear waste The continuing technological transformation of nature means that sociology’s traditional vision of a sharp divide between nature and society is becoming ever harder to defend. Starting from Bruno Latour’s critique of modernity, and Nikolas Rose’s explorations of political power beyond the state, this article presents a framework for analysing the expanding wealth of hybrids of nature and society surrounding us today, and the problems of government they pose. These hybrids confront us with the need to rethink sociology’s conception of ‘the social’. With Latour’s help, the interplay of nature and society can be understood as subject to technical mediation, opening the way for studies of the varying arrangements through which different configurations of nature and society are produced. Rather than alternative social constructions of nature, what sociologists should be at pains to analyse and question are different programmes and strategies for bringing together natural and social forces in durable combinations. In the article, the geological disposal of nuclear waste serves as a useful example for exploring the fruitfulness of the analytical framework put forward. This complex undertaking constitutes just one component in a larger field of technoscientific endeavour that has irrevocably transformed nature while simultaneously re-making society. Addressing this case, we seek to reveal the promise of a sociology that does not bound ‘the social’ in advance, but rather makes the co-production of technology and society one of its most important objects of study.

Patienters upplevelser av att vårdas på en akutmottagning : -en litteraturöversikt

Bakgrund: Vårdpersonalen på en akutmottagning har stora krav på sig, ansvar för många patienter och måste fatta många egna beslut, ibland med mycket kort betänketid. Vårdpersonalen möter många olika patienter med olika problem och personligheter, och måste bemöta varje patient så att denne känner sig bekräftad och sedd. Syfte: Syftet med litteraturöversikten är att undersöka patienters upplevelse av att vårdas på en akutmottagning. Metod: Artiklar till arbetet har söks i olika databaser. Aktuella artiklar har lästs och relevanta fynd har markerats, för att analyseras och sammanställa ett resultat. Resultat: Analysen resulterade i tre underrubriker: Information, Bemötande och Vårdmiljö, med uppdelning av positiva och negativa upplevelser. Många patienter var nöjda med vården, men hade låga förväntningar från början. Patienterna har förstående för personalens tuffa arbetsmiljö, men önskade att få bättre information om väntetid och undersökningar. De tyckte att väntetiden var för lång, och kände sig ofta ensamma och övergivna. Slutsats: Mycket behöver förändras för att patienterna ska få en mer positiv upplevelse av akuten. Detta arbeta kan hjälpa till att belysa vilka punkter som vården måste arbeta extra mycket med för att patienterna ska känna sig trygga, exempelvis bättre information om väntetider och ett bemötande där sjusköterskan ser hela patienten.

Wear of coated and uncoated PCBN cutting tool used in turning and milling

This licentiate thesis has the main focus on evaluation of the wear of coated and uncoated polycrystalline cubic boron nitride cutting tool used in cutting operations against hardened steel. And to exam the surface finish and integrity of the work material used. Harder work material, higher cutting speed and cost reductions result in the development of harder and more wear resistance cutting tools. Although PCBN cutting tools have been used in over 30 years, little work have been done on PVD coated PCBN cutting tools. Therefore hard turning and hard milling experiments with PVD coated and uncoated cutting tools have been performed and evaluated. The coatings used in the present study are TiSiN and TiAlN. The wear scar and surface integrity have been examined with help of several different characterization techniques, for example scanning electron microscopy and Auger electron spectroscopy.   The results showed that the PCBN cutting tools used displayed crater wear, flank wear and edge micro chipping. While the influence of the coating on the crater and flank wear was very small and the coating showed a high tendency to spalling. Scratch testing of coated PCBN showed that, the TiAlN coating resulted in major adhesive fractures. This displays the importance of understanding the effect of different types of lapping/grinding processes in the pre-treatment of hard and super hard substrate materials and the amount and type of damage that they can create. For the cutting tools used in turning, patches of a adhered layer, mainly consisting of FexOy were shown at both the crater and flank. And for the cutting tools used in milling a tribofilm consisting of SixOy covered the crater. A combination of tribochemical reactions, adhesive wear and mild abrasive wear is believed to control the flank and crater wear of the PCBN cutting tools. On a microscopic scale the difference phases of the PCBN cutting tool used in turning showed different wear characteristics. The machined surface of the work material showed a smooth surface with a Ra-value in the range of 100-200 nm for the turned surface and 100-150 nm for the milled surface. With increasing crater and flank wear in combination with edge chipping the machined surface becomes rougher and showed a higher Ra-value. For the cutting tools used in milling the tendency to micro edge chipping was significant higher when milling the tools steels showing a higher hard phase content and a lower heat conductivity resulting in higher mechanical and thermal stresses at the cutting edge.

Connecting Scientific Data to Scientific Experiments with Provenance

As scientific workflows and the data they operate on, grow in size and complexity, the task of defining how those workflows should execute (which resources to use, where the resources must be in readiness for processing etc.) becomes proportionally more difficult. While "workflow compilers", such as Pegasus, reduce this burden, a further problem arises: since specifying details of execution is now automatic, a workflow's results are harder to interpret, as they are partly due to specifics of execution. By automating steps between the experiment design and its results, we lose the connection between them, hindering interpretation of results. To reconnect the scientific data with the original experiment, we argue that scientists should have access to the full provenance of their data, including not only parameters, inputs and intermediary data, but also the abstract experiment, refined into a concrete execution by the "workflow compiler". In this paper, we describe preliminary work on adapting Pegasus to capture the process of workflow refinement in the PASOA provenance system.