Labor supply, biased technological change and economic growth

Se utiliza un modelo de innovaciones sesgadas para estudiar los efectos de cambios exógenos en la oferta laboral. En un contexto de innovaciones sesgadas, a medida que las economías acumulan capital, el trabajo se hace relativamente más escaso y más caro, por este motivo, hay incentivos para adoptar tecnologías ahorradoras de trabajo. Del mismo modo un cambio en la oferta laboral afecta la abundancia de factores y sus precios relativos. En general, una reducción de la oferta laboral, hace que el trabajo sea más caro y genera incentivos para cambio tecnológico ahorrador de trabajo. Así, el efecto inicial que tiene el cambio en la oferta laboral sobre los precios de los factores es mitigado por el cambio tecnológico. Finalmente, los movimientos en la remuneración a los factores afectan las decisiones de ahorro y, por lo tanto, la dinámica del crecimiento. En este trabajo se exploran las consecuencias de una reducción de la oferta laboral en dos contextos teóricos diferentes: un modelo de agentes homogéneos y horizonte infinito y un modelo de generaciones traslapadas.

Revisiting the Relationship between Income Distribution and Economic Growth

La mayoría de los modelos que exploran la relación entre la desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso y el crecimiento económico, postulan la existencia de una correlación negativa entre las dos que es generada a través de diferentes mecanismos. Paralelamente a los modelos teóricos, un número importante de estudios empíricos han tratado de evaluar esta relación. De este esfuerzo ha surgido un consenso amplio que valida la existencia de dicha relación negativa. No obstante, estudios recientes basados en el uso de datos de panel han producido el resultado contrario, documentando la presencia de una relación positiva entre desigualdad y crecimiento. El examen del debate generado a partir de estos resultados, así como el trabajo empírico adelantado en este estudio, indican que las estimaciones obtenidas en diversos trabajos pueden no ser tan robustas como se creía En consecuencia, se sugiere que la realización de estudios de caso por país puede ser una mejor vía para explorar este tema.

Essays on International trade and economic growth

At present, we are witnessing globalization as a truly worldwide phenomenon. Trade agreements among differing countries, a reduction in trade costs, the mobility of production factors, the free flow of information and so on are all proof of the present day era of globalization. Countries are trading with one another more and more every day and the effects of international trade on economies represent a central discussion in all economic spheres. In spite of increasing trade around the world and the promotion of globalization by multilateral organisms such as WTO and IMF, the effects of international trade are not yet clear. Economics literature concerning the effects of international trade on economic growth and welfare remains ambiguous in terms of both theoretical models and empirical research. The present thesis tries to contribute to the theoretical debate surrounding the effects of dynamic international trade, focusing in particular on the implications for economic growth, welfare and changes in the preferences of individuals.

Technology trajectories, innovation, and the growth of biomimetics

Publication rate of patents can be a useful measure of innovation and productivity in science and technology. Patenting activity in new technological fields follows a sigmoid (S-shaped) path. Qualitative and quantitative models in management and economics literature explain why such patterns of productivity may occur. TRIZ analysis suggests that patents are generated in bursts during the evolution of a product and that they are at different levels of inventiveness. The tendency is for the inventiveness to reduce as the product is more mature. This makes it possible to guess at the lifetime stage of a product and gauge its maturity and profitability. An analysis of patenting activity and other measures of inventiveness in the emerging field of biomimetics was presented, and future trends in biologically-inspired innovation was discussed.

Growth rate and vertical propagation of the initial error in baroclinic models

The present study investigates the growth of error in baroclinic waves. It is found that stable or neutral waves are particularly sensitive to errors in the initial condition. Short stable waves are mainly sensitive to phase errors and the ultra long waves to amplitude errors. Analysis simulation experiments have indicated that the amplitudes of the very long waves become usually too small in the free atmosphere, due to the sparse and very irregular distribution of upper air observations. This also applies to the four-dimensional data assimilation experiments, since the amplitudes of the very long waves are usually underpredicted. The numerical experiments reported here show that if the very long waves have these kinds of amplitude errors in the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere the error is rapidly propagated (within a day or two) to the surface and to the lower troposphere.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models

We evaluate the predictive power of leading indicators for output growth at horizons up to 1 year. We use the MIDAS regression approach as this allows us to combine multiple individual leading indicators in a parsimonious way and to directly exploit the information content of the monthly series to predict quarterly output growth. When we use real-time vintage data, the indicators are found to have significant predictive ability, and this is further enhanced by the use of monthly data on the quarter at the time the forecast is made

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

Vintage-based vector autoregressive models of a single macroeconomic variable are shown to be a useful vehicle for obtaining forecasts of different maturities of future and past observations, including estimates of post-revision values. The forecasting performance of models which include information on annual revisions is superior to that of models which only include the first two data releases. However, the empirical results indicate that a model which reflects the seasonal nature of data releases more closely does not offer much improvement over an unrestricted vintage-based model which includes three rounds of annual revisions.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assorted topics in monetary economics

Esta tese é uma coleção de quatro artigos em economia monetária escritos sob a supervisão do Professor Rubens Penha Cysne. O primeiro desses artigos calcula o viés presente em medidas do custo de bem-estar da inflação devido a não se levar em conta o potencial substitutivo de moedas que rendem juros, como depósitos bancários.[1] O segundo se concentra na questão teórica de se comparar os escopos dos tradicionais modelos money-in-the-utility-function e shopping-time através do estudo das propriedades das curvas de demanda que eles geram.[2] O terceiro desses trabalhos revisita um artigo clássico de Stanley Fischer sobre a correlação entre a taxa de crescimento da oferta monetária e a taxa de acumulação de capital no caminho de transição.[3] Finalmente, o quarto diz respeito à posição relativa de cada uma de seis medidas do custo de bem-estar da inflação (uma das quais é nova) em relação às outras cinco, e uma estimativa do erro relativo máximo em que o pesquisador pode incorrer devido a sua escolha de empregar uma dessas medidas qualquer vis-à-vis as outras.[4] This thesis collects four papers on monetary economics written under the supervision of Professor Rubens Penha Cysne. The first of these papers assesses the bias occuring in welfare-cost-of-inflation measures due to failing to take into consideration the substitution potential of interest-bearing monies such as bank deposits.[1] The second one tackles the theoretical issue of comparing the generality of the money-in-the-utility-function- and the shopping-time models by studying the properties of the demand curves they generate.[2] The third of these works revisits a classic paper by Stanley Fischer on the correlation between the growth rate of money supply and the rate of capital accumulation on the transition path.[3] Finally, the fourth one concerns the relative standing of each one of six measures of the welfare cost of inflation (one of which is new) with respect to the other five, and an estimate of the maximum relative error one can incur by choosing to employ a particular welfare measure in place of the others.[4] [1] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2010. Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: A calculation of the bias. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 1015-1030. [2] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2009. On the integrability of money-demand functions by the Sidrauski and the shopping-time models. Journal of Banking & Finance 33, 1555-1562. [3] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2010. Money supply and capital accumulation on the transition path revisited. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42, 1173-1184. [4] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2011. An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits. Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.

Models for the analysis of growth curves for rearing tinamous (Rhynchotus rufescens) in captivity

Growth curves models provide a visual assessment of growth as a function of time, and prediction body weight at a specific age. This study aimed at estimating tinamous growth curve using different models, and at verifying their goodness of fit. A total number 11,639 weight records from 411 birds, being 6,671 from females and 3,095 from males, was analyzed. The highest estimates of a parameter were obtained using Brody (BD), von Bertalanffy (VB), Gompertz (GP,) and Logistic function (LG). Adult females were 5.7% heavier than males. The highest estimates of b parameter were obtained in the LG, GP, BID, and VB models. The estimated k parameter values in decreasing order were obtained in LG, GP, VB, and BID models. The correlation between the parameters a and k showed heavier birds are less precocious than the lighter. The estimates of intercept, linear regression coefficient, quadratic regression coefficient, and differences between quadratic coefficient of functions and estimated ties of quadratic-quadratic-quadratic segmented polynomials (QQQSP) were: 31.1732 +/- 2.41339; 3.07898 +/- 0.13287; 0.02689 +/- 0.00152; -0.05566 +/- 0.00193; 0.02349 +/- 0.00107, and 57 and 145 days, respectively. The estimated predicted mean error values (PME) of VB, GP, BID, LG, and QQQSP models were, respectively, 0.8353; 0.01715; -0.6939; -2.2453; and -0.7544%. The coefficient of determination (RI) and least square error values (MS) showed similar results. In conclusion, the VB and the QQQSP models adequately described tinamous growth. The best model to describe tinamous growth was the Gompertz model, because it presented the highest R-2 values, easiness of convergence, lower PME, and the easiness of parameter biological interpretation.

Modeling of average growth curve in Santa Ines sheep using random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)