GHG mitigation of agricultural peatlands requires coherent policies

Acknowledgements The authors thank the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases for facilitating this work. The contribution of P.S. contributed to the EU-funded GHG Europe project.

Quantificação de biomassa e carbono da parte aérea em uma área de Mata Atlântica, na Serra da Cantareira, São Paulo

A atividade humana tem contribuído com as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) associadas, principalmente, com queima de combustíveis fósseis e mudanças no uso da terra. Assim, se faz necessário que sejam adotadas medidas visando o retardamento dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas. As florestas exercem papel essencial no balanço de carbono principalmente por funcionarem como sumidouros de CO2. Por outro lado, se desmatadas, promovem emissões e liberam parte do carbono estocado. A quantidade de biomassa florestal e o teor de carbono podem variar em função do tipo florestal, bem como de sua localização. Entretanto, fator importante diz respeito à confiabilidade dos dados mensurados neste tipo de pesquisa. A biomassa e o carbono da parte aérea podem ser determinados via método destrutivo, ou estimados via método não destrutivo. A construção do Rodoanel Mário Covas trecho norte e a supressão de uma área de Mata Atlântica possibilitou a realização de estudo de biomassa da parte aérea via método destrutivo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar o tamanho e forma de parcelas, a intensidade amostral, quantificar a biomassa e o carbono na parte aérea, comparar métodos destrutivos e não destrutivos para a quantificação de biomassa e carbono na parte aérea, estudar a variação da densidade básica da madeira das espécies nas diferentes classes de DAP e grupos sucessionais e comparar as medidas de altura total e DAP obtidas a campo no inventário com as medidas coletadas após o corte. O tamanho mais conveniente de parcela foi 400 m 2, com forma retangular e dimensão de 10 x 40 m. A intensidade amostral variou entre 39 e 75 unidades amostrais. A biomassa da parte aérea obtida, via método destrutivo, foi de 188,3 Mg ha-1 e o carbono, 85,1 Mg ha-1. A biomassa estimada por equações alométricas da literatura foi subestimada, quando comparada ao valor real, obtido via método destrutivo. As menores classes de DAP apresentaram as maiores densidades básicas da madeira. A densidade básica foi 0,488 g cm-3 na média das espécies. A porcentagem de carbono contida nos troncos e galhos não diferiu entre as classes de DAP. O teor de carbono foi 45,41%, na média dos troncos e galhos. Espécies pioneiras acumularam maior quantidade de biomassa e carbono nos galhos e apresentaram maior densidade básica que as não pioneiras. A utilização dos dados coletados na fase de inventário e após o corte não afetaram os valores de biomassa estimados.

The Sustainability Impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on the European Industry. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 17/2007

This BEEP explains the mechanism of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) for the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and explore into its likely sustainability impact on European industry. In doing so, it focuses on energy-intensive industries like cement, steel and aluminium production as well as on the emerging hydrogen economy. The BEEP concludes that at the moment it is still very inconsistently implemented and has a fairly narrow scope regarding greenhouse gases and involved sectors. It may also give an incentive to relocate for energy-intensive industries. In its current format, the EU ETS does not yet properly facilitate long term innovation dynamics such as the transition to a hydrogen economy. Nevertheless, the EU ETS is foremost a working system that – with some improvements – has the potential to become a pillar for effective and efficient climate change policy that also gives incentives for investment into climate friendly policies.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

The Lena River Delta - Land cover classification of tundra environments based on Landsat 7 ETM+ data and its application for upscaling of methane emissions

The Lena River Delta, situated in Northern Siberia (72.0 - 73.8° N, 122.0 - 129.5° E), is the largest Arctic delta and covers 29,000 km**2. Since natural deltas are characterised by complex geomorphological patterns and various types of ecosystems, high spatial resolution information on the distribution and extent of the delta environments is necessary for a spatial assessment and accurate quantification of biogeochemical processes as drivers for the emission of greenhouse gases from tundra soils. In this study, the first land cover classification for the entire Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images was conducted and used for the quantification of methane emissions from the delta ecosystems on the regional scale. The applied supervised minimum distance classification was very effective with the few ancillary data that were available for training site selection. Nine land cover classes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the wetland dominated (72%) Lena Delta could be defined by this classification approach. The mean daily methane emission of the entire Lena Delta was calculated with 10.35 mg CH4/m**2/d. Taking our multi-scale approach into account we find that the methane source strength of certain tundra wetland types is lower than calculated previously on coarser scales.

The Effects of Organic Matter Amendments and Migratory Waterfowl on Greenhouse Gas and Nutrient Dynamics in Managed Coastal Plain Wetlands

Wetland ecosystems provide many valuable ecosystem services, including carbon (C) storage and improvement of water quality. Yet, restored and managed wetlands are not frequently evaluated for their capacity to function in order to deliver on these values. Specific restoration or management practices designed to meet one set of criteria may yield unrecognized biogeochemical costs or co-benefits. The goal of this dissertation is to improve scientific understanding of how wetland restoration practices and waterfowl habitat management affect critical wetland biogeochemical processes related to greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient cycling. I met this goal through field and laboratory research experiments in which I tested for relationships between management factors and the biogeochemical responses of wetland soil, water, plants and trace gas emissions. Specifically, I quantified: (1) the effect of organic matter amendments on the carbon balance of a restored wetland; (2) the effectiveness of two static chamber designs in measuring methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands; (3) the impact of waterfowl herbivory on the oxygen-sensitive processes of methane emission and coupled nitrification-denitrification; and (4) nitrogen (N) exports caused by prescribed draw down of a waterfowl impoundment.

The potency of CH4 emissions from wetlands raises the concern that widespread restoration and/or creation of freshwater wetlands may present a radiative forcing hazard. Yet data on greenhouse gas emissions from restored wetlands are sparse and there has been little investigation into the greenhouse gas effects of amending wetland soils with organic matter, a recent practice used to improve function of mitigation wetlands in the Eastern United States. I measured trace gas emissions across an organic matter gradient at a restored wetland in the coastal plain of Virginia to test the hypothesis that added C substrate would increase the emission of CH4. I found soils heavily loaded with organic matter emitted significantly more carbon dioxide than those that have received little or no organic matter. CH4 emissions from the wetland were low compared to reference wetlands and contrary to my hypothesis, showed no relationship with the loading rate of added organic matter or total soil C. The addition of moderate amounts of organic matter (< 11.2 kg m-2) to the wetland did not greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions, while the addition of high amounts produced additional carbon dioxide, but not CH4.

I found that the static chambers I used for sampling CH4 in wetlands were highly sensitive to soil disturbance. Temporary compression around chambers during sampling inflated the initial chamber CH4 headspace concentration and/or lead to generation of nonlinear, unreliable flux estimates that had to be discarded. I tested an often-used rubber-gasket sealed static chamber against a water-filled-gutter seal chamber I designed that could be set up and sampled from a distance of 2 m with a remote rod sampling system to reduce soil disturbance. Compared to the conventional design, the remotely-sampled static chambers reduced the chance of detecting inflated initial CH4 concentrations from 66 to 6%, and nearly doubled the proportion of robust linear regressions from 45 to 86%. The new system I developed allows for more accurate and reliable CH4 sampling without costly boardwalk construction.

I explored the relationship between CH4 emissions and aquatic herbivores, which are recognized for imposing top-down control on the structure of wetland ecosystems. The biogeochemical consequences of herbivore-driven disruption of plant growth, and in turn, mediated oxygen transport into wetland sediments, were not previously known. Two growing seasons of herbivore exclusion experiments in a major waterfowl overwintering wetland in the Southeastern U.S. demonstrate that waterfowl herbivory had a strong impact on the oxygen-sensitive processes of CH4 emission and nitrification. Denudation by herbivorous birds increased cumulative CH4 flux by 233% (a mean of 63 g CH4 m-2 y-1) and inhibited coupled nitrification-denitrification, as indicated by nitrate availability and emissions of nitrous oxide. The recognition that large populations of aquatic herbivores may influence the capacity for wetlands to emit greenhouse gases and cycle nitrogen is particularly salient in the context of climate change and nutrient pollution mitigation goals. For example, our results suggest that annual emissions of 23 Gg of CH4 y-1 from ~55,000 ha of publicly owned waterfowl impoundments in the Southeastern U.S. could be tripled by overgrazing.

Hydrologically controlled moist-soil impoundment wetlands provide critical habitat for high densities of migratory bird populations, thus their potential to export nitrogen (N) to downstream waters may contribute to the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems. To investigate the relative importance of N export from these built and managed habitats, I conducted a field study at an impoundment wetland that drains into hypereutrophic Lake Mattamuskeet. I found that prescribed hydrologic drawdowns of the impoundment exported roughly the same amount of N (14 to 22 kg ha-1) as adjacent fertilized agricultural fields (16 to 31 kg ha-1), and contributed approximately one-fifth of total N load (~45 Mg N y-1) to Lake Mattamuskeet. Ironically, the prescribed drawdown regime, designed to maximize waterfowl production in impoundments, may be exacerbating the degradation of habitat quality in the downstream lake. Few studies of wetland N dynamics have targeted impoundments managed to provide wildlife habitat, but a similar phenomenon may occur in some of the 36,000 ha of similarly-managed moist-soil impoundments on National Wildlife Refuges in the southeastern U.S. I suggest early drawdown as a potential method to mitigate impoundment N pollution and estimate it could reduce N export from our study impoundment by more than 70%.

In this dissertation research I found direct relationships between wetland restoration and impoundment management practices, and biogeochemical responses of greenhouse gas emission and nutrient cycling. Elevated soil C at a restored wetland increased CO2 losses even ten years after the organic matter was originally added and intensive herbivory impact on emergent aquatic vegetation resulted in a ~230% increase in CH4 emissions and impaired N cycling and removal. These findings have important implications for the basic understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of wetlands and practical importance for wetland restoration and impoundment management in the face of pressure to mitigate the environmental challenges of global warming and aquatic eutrophication.

A baseline projection of methane emissions by the Brazilian beef sector: preliminary results .

2007

Performance assessment of vehicular connectivity in hybrid electric vehicles for fuel and emissions reduction

Nowadays, the spreading of the air pollution crisis enhanced by greenhouse gases emission is leading to the worsening of global warming. Recently, several metropolitan cities introduced Zero-Emissions Zones where the use of the Internal Combustion Engine is forbidden to reduce localized pollutants emissions. This is particularly problematic for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, which usually work in depleting mode. In order to address these issues, the present thesis presents a viable solution by exploiting vehicular connectivity to retrieve navigation data of the urban event along a selected route. The battery energy needed, in the form of a minimum State of Charge (SoC), is calculated by a Speed Profile Prediction algorithm and a Backward Vehicle Model. That value is then fed to both a Rule-Based Strategy, developed specifically for this application, and an Adaptive Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (A-ECMS). The effectiveness of this approach has been tested with a Connected Hardware-in-the-Loop (C-HiL) on a driving cycle measured on-road, stimulating the predictions with multiple re-routings. However, even if hybrid electric vehicles have been recognized as a valid solution in response to increasingly tight regulations, the reduced engine load and the repeated engine starts and stops may reduce substantially the temperature of the exhaust after-treatment system (EATS), leading to relevant issues related to pollutant emission control. In this context, electrically heated catalysts (EHCs) represent a promising solution to ensure high pollutant conversion efficiency without affecting engine efficiency and performance. This work aims at studying the advantages provided by the introduction of a predictive EHC control function for a light-duty Diesel plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) equipped with a Euro 7-oriented EATS. Based on the knowledge of future driving scenarios provided by vehicular connectivity, engine first start can be predicted and therefore an EATS pre-heating phase can be planned.

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils in the Cerrado region of the Brazilian Amazon

The introduction of crop management practices after conversion of Amazon Cerrado into cropland influences soil C stocks and has direct and indirect consequences on greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The aim of this study was to quantify soil C sequestration, through the evaluation of the changes in C stocks, as well as the GHG fluxes (N(2)O and CH(4)) during the process of conversion of Cerrado into agricultural land in the southwestern Amazon region, comparing no-tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) systems. We collected samples from soils and made gas flux measurements in July 2004 (the dry season) and in January 2005 (the wet season) at six areas: Cerrado, CT cultivated with rice for 1 year (1CT) and 2 years (2CT), and NT cultivated with soybean for 1 year (1NT), 2 years (2NT) and 3 years (3NT), in each case after a 2-year period of rice under CT. Soil samples were analyzed in both seasons for total organic C and bulk density. The soil C stocks, corrected for a mass of soil equivalent to the 0-30-cm layer under Cerrado, indicated that soils under NT had generally higher C storage compared to native Cerrado and CT soils. The annual C accumulation rate in the conversion of rice under CT into soybean under NT was 0.38 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Although CO(2) emissions were not used in the C sequestration estimates to avoid double counting, we did include the fluxes of this gas in our discussion. In the wet season, CO(2) emissions were twice as high as in the dry season and the highest N(2)O emissions occurred under the NT system. There were no CH(4) emissions to the atmosphere (negative fluxes) and there were no significant seasonal variations. When N(2)O and CH(4) emissions in C-equivalent were subtracted (assuming that the measurements made on 4 days were representative of the whole year), the soil C sequestration rate of the conversion of rice under CT into soybean under NT was 0.23 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Although there were positive soil C sequestration rates, our results do not present data regarding the full C balance in soil management changes in the Amazon Cerrado. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of blanks to determine in vitro net gas and methane production when using rumen fermentation modifiers

Blanks (flasks without substrate containing only inoculum and medium) are used in vitro to correct for gas. CH(4) and residual organic matter (OM) fermented in inoculum. However inclusion of rumen fermentation modifiers may affect fermentation of OM in the substrate and inoculum. Thus, data correction using blanks that lack additives may result in inaccurate adjustment for background fermentation. Our objective was to evaluate impacts of using blanks containing additive (i.e., specific blanks) or blanks without additive on estimation of in vitro net gas and CH(4) production. We used the semi-automatic in vitro gas production technique including monensin sodium at 2.08 mg/l of buffered rumen fluid (Experiment 1) or carvacrol, eugenol and 1,8-cineol at 667 mg/l (Experiment 2) in flasks with substrate and in blank flasks. At 16h of incubation, monensin reduced (P <= 0.02) total gas production in flasks containing substrate (162.0 ml versus 146.3 ml) and in blanks (84.4 ml versus 79.2 ml). Total methane production was also decreased (P <= 0.05) by adding monensin to flasks containing substrate (15.7 ml versus 11.9 ml) as well as in blanks (6.4 ml versus 5.0 ml). Inclusion of carvacrol or eugenol reduced (P <= 0.05) total gas and CH(4) production in flasks with substrate and in blanks, but in a more pronounced manner than monensin. For these three additives, correction for blank without additive resulted in lower net gas and CH(4) production than correction for a treatment specific blank. For instance, correcting carvacrol data using a blank without the additive resulted in negative net gas and CH(4) production (-6.5 and -1.5 ml. respectively). These biologically impossible results occurred because total gas and CH(4) production in blanks without carvacrol (46.1 and 2.1 ml, respectively) were higher than in flasks containing substrate plus carvacrol (39.7 and 0.6 ml, respectively). Results demonstrated that inclusion of rumen additives affected fermentation of OM in the substrate and the inoculum. Thus, correction of gas and CH(4) production using blanks without additives resulted in overestimation of these variables. Blanks containing the additive of interest should be included when rumen fermentation modifiers are evaluated in vitro. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union

Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.

Titanium phosphate for Fuel Cell Proton Conduction Membranes

Environmental issues due to increases in emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are driving the development of clean energy delivery technologies such as fuel cells. Low temperature Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) use hydrogen as a fuel and their only emission is water. While significant advances have been made in recent years, a major limitation of the current technology is the cost and materials limitations of the proton conduction membrane. The proton exchange membrane performs three critical functions in the PEMFC membrane electrode assembly (MEA): (i) conduction of protons with minimal resistance from the anode (where they are generated from hydrogen) to the cathode (where they combine with oxygen and electrons, from the external circuit or load), (ii) providing electrical insulation between the anode and cathode to prevent shorting, and (iii) providing a gas impermeable barrier to prevent mixing of the fuel (hydrogen) and oxidant. The PFSA (perfluorosulphonic acid) family of membranes is currently the best developed proton conduction membrane commercially available, but these materials are limited to operation below 100oC (typically 80oC, or lower) due to the thermochemical limitations of this polymer. For both mobile and stationary applications, fuel cell companies require more durable, cost effective membrane technologies capable of delivering enhanced performance at higher temperatures (typically 120oC, or higher. This is driving research into a wide range of novel organic and inorganic materials with the potential to be good proton conductors and form coherent membranes. There are several research efforts recently reported in the literature employing inorganic nanomaterials. These include functionalised silica phosphates [1,2], fullerene [3] titania phosphates [4], zirconium pyrophosphate [5]. This work addresses the functionalisation of titania particles with phosphoric acid. Proton conductivity measurements are given together with structural properties.

Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important?

A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss ( up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.

Cenários de mudanças climáticas para a América do Sul : impacto no zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) através do seu Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas Globais (IPCC-AR4), publicado em 2007, atribui as emissões de gases de efeito estufa como a principal causa do aumento médio das temperaturas e alerta para uma elevação entre 1,8 ºC e 6,4 ºC até 2100, podendo modificar assim a aptidão climática para as culturas agrícolas em diversas regiões do planeta. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis por fontes renováveis e limpas de energia, como o etanol. A cana-de-açúcar apresenta-se, portanto, como uma cultura estratégica na produção do etanol. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho dos Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) do IPCC-AR4 na simulação de dados climáticos de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluviométrica para o período anual e mensal; 2) elaborar o zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar para a América do Sul considerando o clima referência e o futuro para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 em função do cenário de emissão A1B considerado pessimista e que usa um equilíbrio entre todas as fontes de energia. Para a avaliação do desempenho dos MCGs, foram utilizados dados climáticos médios mensais observados de precipitação e temperatura do ar provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e dados simulados oriundos dos 22 MCGs do IPCC (cenário 20c3m) compreendidos entre o período de 1961-1990, além do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM que é a média da combinação dos dados de todos os modelos. O desempenho dos MCGs foi avaliado pelos índices estatísticos: desvio padrão, correlação, raiz quadrada da média do quadrado das diferenças centralizadas e o “bias” dos dados simulados com os observados, que foram representados no diagrama de Taylor. Para a etapa da elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático procedeu-se o cálculo dos balanços hídricos (referência e futuros) da cultura, pelo método de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Para o cenário referência, utilizaram-se dados das médias mensais da precipitação e temperatura provenientes do CRU, enquanto que para as projeções futuras, dados provenientes das anomalias do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, que foram ajustados, obtendo-se assim as projeções futuras para cada período analisado. Baseado nos mapas temáticos reclassificados de deficiência hídrica anual, temperatura média anual, excedente hídrico anual e no índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), realizou-se uma sobreposição dessas informações obtendo assim, os mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar. Posteriormente ao zoneamento, realizou-se a análise das transições (ganhos, perdas e persistências) entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura. Os resultados mostram que o Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para o período mensal apresenta o melhor desempenho entre os modelos analisados. As áreas inaptas correspondem a maior parte da América do Sul e uma expressiva transição entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura.