Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield

Projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and air temperature associated with future climate change are expected to affect crop development, crop yield, and, consequently, global food supplies. They are also likely to change agricultural production practices, especially those related to agricultural water management and sowing date. The magnitude of these changes and their implications to local production systems are mostly unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (i) simulate the effect of projected climate change on spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Lang) yield and water use for the subtropical environment of the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia; and (ii) investigate the impact of changing sowing date, as an adaptation strategy to future climate change scenarios, on wheat yield and water use. The multimodel climate projections from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the period 2030–2070 were used in this study. Climate scenarios included combinations of four changes in air temperature (08C, 18C, 28C, and 38C), three [CO2] levels (380 ppm, 500 ppm, and 600 ppm), and three changes in rainfall (–30%, 0%, and +20%), which were superimposed on observed station data. Crop management scenarios included a combination of six sowing dates (1 May, 10 May, 20 May, 1 June, 10 June, and 20 June) and three irrigation regimes (no irrigation (NI), deficit irrigation (DI), and full irrigation (FI)). Simulations were performed with the model DSSAT4.5, using 50 years of daily weather data.Wefound that: (1) grain yield and water-use efficiency (yield/evapotranspiration) increased linearly with [CO2]; (2) increases in [CO2] had minimal impact on evapotranspiration; (3) yield increased with increasing temperature for the irrigated scenarios (DI and FI), but decreased for the NI scenario; (4) yield increased with earlier sowing dates; and (5) changes in rainfall had a small impact on yield for DI and FI, but a high impact for the NI scenario.

A taxonomy of model-based testing approaches

Model-based testing (MBT) relies on models of a system under test and/or its environment to derive test cases for the system. This paper discusses the process of MBT and defines a taxonomy that covers the key aspects of MBT approaches. It is intended to help with understanding the characteristics, similarities and differences of those approaches, and with classifying the approach used in a particular MBT tool. To illustrate the taxonomy, a description of how three different examples of MBT tools fit into the taxonomy is provided.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Interpersonal coordination tendencies shape 1-vs-1 sub-phase performance outcomes in youth soccer

This study investigated the influence of interpersonal coordination tendencies on performance outcomes of 1-vs-1 subphases in youth soccer. Eight male developing soccer players (age: 11.8+0.4 years; training experience: 3.6+1.1 years) performed an in situ simulation of a 1-vs-1 sub-phase of soccer. Data from 82 trials were obtained with motion-analysis techniques, and relative phase used to measure the space-time coordination tendencies of attacker-defender dyads. Approximate entropy (ApEn) was then used to quantify the unpredictability of interpersonal interactions over trials. Results revealed how different modes of interpersonal coordination emerging from attacker-defender dyads influenced the 1-vs-1 performance outcomes. High levels of space-time synchronisation (47%) and unpredictability in interpersonal coordination processes (ApEn: 0.91+0.34) were identified as key features of an attacking player’s success. A lead-lag relation attributed to a defending player (34% around 7308 values) and a more predictable coordination mode (ApEn: 0.65+0.27, P50.001), demonstrated the coordination tendencies underlying the success of defending players in 1-vs-1 sub-phases. These findings revealed how the mutual influence of each player on the behaviour of dyadic systems shaped emergent performance outcomes. More specifically, the findings showed that attacking players should be constrained to exploit the space-time synchrony with defenders in an unpredictable and creative way, while defenders should be encouraged to adopt postures and behaviours that actively constrain the attacker’s actions.

Privacy by Design : Does it matter for social networks?

Privacy is an important component of freedom and plays a key role in protecting fundamental human rights. It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the fact that without appropriate levels of privacy, a person’s rights are diminished. Users want to protect their privacy - particularly in “privacy invasive” areas such as social networks. However, Social Network users seldom know how protect their own privacy through online mechanisms. What is required is an emerging concept that provides users legitimate control over their own personal information, whilst preserving and maintaining the advantages of engaging with online services such as Social Networks. This paper reviews “Privacy by Design (PbD)” and shows how it applies to diverse privacy areas. Such an approach will move towards mitigating many of the privacy issues in online information systems and can be a potential pathway for protecting user’s personal information. The research has posed many questions in need of further investigation for different open source distributed Social Networks. Findings from this research will lead to a novel distributed architecture that provides more transparent and accountable privacy for the users of online information systems.

The politics and poetics of coexistence : experiments at the intersection of art and environmental engineering

This research project explores how interdisciplinary art practices can provide ways for questioning and envisaging alternative modes of coexistence between humans and the non-humans who together, make up the environment. As a practiceled project, it combines a body of creative work (50%) and this exegesis (50%). My interdisciplinary artistic practice appropriates methods and processes from science and engineering and merges them into artistic contexts for critical and poetic ends. By blending pseudo-scientific experimentation with creative strategies like visual fiction, humour, absurd public performance and scripted audience participation, my work engages with a range of debates around ecology. This exegesis details the interplay between critical theory relating to these debates, the work of other creative practitioners and my own evolving artistic practice. Through utilising methods and processes drawn from my prior career in water engineering, I present an interdisciplinary synthesis that seeks to promote improved understandings of the causes and consequences of our ecological actions and inactions.

Indigenous/digital heterogeneities : an actor-network-theory approach

This thesis analysed the theoretical and ontological issues of previous scholarship concerning information technology and indigenous people. As an alternative, the thesis used the framework of actor-network-theory, especially through historiographical and ethnographic techniques. The thesis revealed an assemblage of indigenous/digital enactments striving for relevance and avoiding obsolescence. It also recognised heterogeneities- including user-ambivalences, oscillations, noise, non-coherences and disruptions - as part of the milieu of the daily digital lives of indigenous people. By taking heterogeneities into account, the thesis ensured that the data “speaks for itself” and that social inquiry is not overtaken by ideology and ontology.

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

We study the difference in the result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, personality traits, a decision in a dilemma situation, and physiological states measured by heart rate variability (HRV). Our results indicate that differences between the methods can partly be explained by gender, but not by personality traits. Furthermore, HRV is linked to risktaking in the experiment for at least one of the methods, indicating that more stressed individuals display more risk aversion. Finally, we and that risk attitudes are not predictive of the ability to decide in a dilemma, but personality traits are. Surprisingly, there is also no apparent relationship between the physiological state during the dilemma situation and the ability to make a decision.

Gender and other determinants of trust and reciprocity in an experimental labour market amongst Chinese students

Due to economic and demographic changes highly educated women play an important role on the Chinese labour market. Gender has been shown to be an important characteristic that influences behaviour in economic experiments, as have, to a lesser degree, academic major, age and income. We provide a study looking at trust and reciprocity and their determinants in a labour market laboratory experiment. Our experimental data is based on two games, the Gift Exchange Game (GEG) and a variant of this game (the Wage Promising Game, WPG) where the employer's wage offer is non-binding and the employer can choose the wage freely after observing the workers effort. We and that women are less trusting and reciprocal than men in the GEG while this cannot be found in the WPG. Letting participants play the GEG and the WPG, allows us to disentangle reciprocal and risk attitudes. While in the employer role, it seems to be that risk attitude is the main factor, this is not confirmed analysing decisions in the worker role.

How distributional preferences shape incentives on (experimental) markets for credence goods

Credence goods markets suffer from inefficiencies caused by superior information of sellers about the surplus-maximizing quality. While standard theory predicts that equal mark-up prices solve the credence goods problem if customers can verify the quality received, experimental evidence indicates the opposite. We identify a lack of robustness of institutional design with respect to heterogeneity in distributional preferences as a possible cause and design new experiments that allow for parsimonious identification of sellers’ distributional types. Our results indicate that less than a fourth of the subjects behave according to standard theory’s assumption, the rest behaving either in line with non-standard selfish or in accordance with non-trivial other-regarding preferences. We discuss consequences of our findings for institutional design and agent selection.

Response to chemotherapy is predictive in relation to longer overall survival in an individual patient combined-analysis with pleural mesothelioma

Background: There is currently no early predictive marker of survival for patients receiving chemotherapy for malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). Tumour response may be predictive for overall survival (OS), though this has not been explored. We have thus undertaken a combined-analysis of OS, from a 42 day landmark, of 526 patients receiving systemic therapy for MPM. We also validate published progression-free survival rates (PFSRs) and a progression-free survival (PFS) prognostic-index model. Methods: Analyses included nine MPM clinical trials incorporating six European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) studies. Analysis of OS from landmark (from day 42 post-treatment) was considered regarding tumour response. PFSR analysis data included six non-EORTC MPM clinical trials. Prognostic index validation was performed on one non-EORTC data-set, with available survival data. Results: Median OS, from landmark, of patients with partial response (PR) was 12·8 months, stable disease (SD), 9·4 months and progressive disease (PD), 3·4 months. Both PR and SD were associated with longer OS from landmark compared with disease progression (both p < 0·0001). PFSRs for platinum-based combination therapies were consistent with published significant clinical activity ranges. Effective separation between PFS and OS curves provided a validation of the EORTC prognostic model, based on histology, stage and performance status. Conclusion: Response to chemotherapy is associated with significantly longer OS from landmark in patients with MPM. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bioequivalence of two tablet formulations of capecitabine and exploration of age, gender, body surface area, and creatinine clearance as factors influencing systemic exposure in cancer patients

Purpose: The objective of the study was to assess the bioequivalence of two tablet formulations of capecitabine and to explore the effect of age, gender, body surface area and creatinine clearance on the systemic exposure to capecitabine and its metabolites. Methods: The study was designed as an open, randomized two-way crossover trial. A single oral dose of 2000 mg capecitabine was administered on two separate days to 25 patients with solid tumors. On one day, the patients received four 500-mg tablets of formulation B (test formulation) and on the other day, four 500-mg tablets of formulation A (reference formulation). The washout period between the two administrations was between 2 and 8 days. After each administration, serial blood and urine samples were collected for up to 12 and 24 h, respectively. Unchanged capecitabine and its metabolites were determined in plasma using LC/MS-MS and in urine by NMRS. Results: Based on the primary pharmacokinetic parameter, AUC(0-∞) of 5'-DFUR, equivalence was concluded for the two formulations, since the 90% confidence interval of the estimate of formulation B relative to formulation A of 97% to 107% was within the acceptance region 80% to 125%. There was no clinically significant difference between the t(max) for the two formulations (median 2.1 versus 2.0 h). The estimate for C(max) was 111% for formulation B compared to formulation A and the 90% confidence interval of 95% to 136% was within the reference region 70% to 143%. Overall, these results suggest no relevant difference between the two formulations regarding the extent to which 5'-DFUR reached the systemic circulation and the rate at which 5'-DFUR appeared in the systemic circulation. The overall urinary excretions were 86.0% and 86.5% of the dose, respectively, and the proportion recovered as each metabolite was similar for the two formulations. The majority of the dose was excreted as FBAL (61.5% and 60.3%), all other chemical species making a minor contribution. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis to explore the influence of age, gender, body surface area and creatinine clearance on the log-transformed pharmacokinetic parameters AUC(0-∞) and C(max) of capecitabine and its metabolites revealed no clinically significant effects. The only statistically significant results were obtained for AUC(0-∞) and C(max) of intact drug and for C(max) of FBAL, which were higher in females than in males. Conclusion: The bioavailability of 5'-DFUR in the systemic circulation was practically identical after administration of the two tablet formulations. Therefore, the two formulations can be regarded as bioequivalent. The variables investigated (age, gender, body surface area, and creatinine clearance) had no clinically significant effect on the pharmacokinetics of capecitabine or its metabolites.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as a biomarker for the pharmacological response of PTK787/ZK 222584, an inhibitor of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, in patients with advanced colorectal cancer and liver metastases: Results from two phase I studies

Purpose: PTK787/ZK 222584 (PTK/ZK), an orally active inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor tyrosine kinases, inhibits VEGF-mediated angiogenesis. The pharmacodynamic effects of PTK/ZK were evaluated by assessing changes in contrast-enhancement parameters of metastatic liver lesions using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated in two ongoing, dose-escalating phase I studies. Patients and Methods: Twenty-six patients had DCE-MRI performed at baseline, day 2, and at the end of each 28-day cycle. Doses of oral PTK/ZK ranged from 50 to 2000 mg once daily. Tumor permeability and vascularity were assessed by calculating the bidirectional transfer constant (Ki). The percentage of baseline Ki (% of baseline Ki) at each time point was compared with pharmacokinetic and clinical end points. Results: A significant negative correlation exists between the % of baseline Ki and increase in PTK/ZK oral dose and plasma levels (P = .01 for oral dose; P = .0001 for area under the plasma concentration curve at day 2). Patients with a best response of stable disease had a significantly greater reduction in Ki at both day 2 and at the end of cycle 1 compared with progressors (mean difference in % of baseline Ki, 47%, P = .004%; and 51%, P = .006; respectively). The difference in % of baseline Ki remained statistically significant after adjusting for baseline WHO performance status. Conclusion: These findings should help to define a biologically active dose of PTK/ZK. These results suggest that DCE-MRI may be a useful biomarker for defining the pharmacological response and dose of angiogenesis inhibitiors, such as PTK/ZK, for further clinical development. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.