917 resultados para Gaussian prior variance
Resumo:
Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.
Resumo:
Due to limited budgets and reduced inspection staff, state departments of transportation (DOTs) are in need of innovative approaches for providing more efficient quality assurance on concrete paving projects. The goal of this research was to investigate and test new methods that can determine pavement thickness in real time. Three methods were evaluated: laser scanning, ultrasonic sensors, and eddy current sensors. Laser scanning, which scans the surface of the base prior to paving and then scans the surface after paving, can determine the thickness at any point. Also, scanning lasers provide thorough data coverage that can be used to calculate thickness variance accurately and identify any areas where the thickness is below tolerance. Ultrasonic and eddy current sensors also have the potential to measure thickness nondestructively at discrete points and may result in an easier method of obtaining thickness. There appear to be two viable approaches for measuring concrete pavement thickness during the paving operation: laser scanning and eddy current sensors. Laser scanning has proved to be a reliable technique in terms of its ability to provide virtual core thickness with low variability. Research is still required to develop a prototype system that integrates point cloud data from two scanners. Eddy current sensors have also proved to be a suitable alternative, and are probably closer to field implementation than the laser scanning approach. As a next step for this research project, it is suggested that a pavement thickness measuring device using eddy current sensors be created, which would involve both a handheld and paver-mounted version of the device.
Resumo:
A number of geophysical methods, such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR), have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for the effective estimation of vadose zone hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. A critical issue in stochastic inversion is choosing prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data. A well chosen prior should reflect as honestly as possible the initial state of knowledge regarding the parameters and be neither overly specific nor too conservative. In a Bayesian context, combining the prior with available data yields a posterior state of knowledge about the parameters, which can then be used statistically for predictions and risk assessment. Here we investigate the influence of prior information regarding the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters, which describe vadose zone hydraulic properties, on the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data collected under steady state, natural-loading conditions. We do this using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach, considering first noninformative uniform prior distributions and then more informative priors derived from soil property databases. For the informative priors, we further explore the effect of including information regarding parameter correlation. Analysis of both synthetic and field data indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when we combine these data with a realistic, informative prior.
Resumo:
Research project HR-231, "Special Surface Preparation Prior to Bituminous Overlay", was initiated in 1982 to study the effectiveness of three different crack fillers in extending pavement life. In particular, this project was designed to determine if any of the fillers could substantially reduce the rate of subsurface deterioration and general deterioration of an asphalt pavement at crack locations. This project also sought to determine the effects of the various crack filling procedures on different thicknesses of bituminous overlays. The three fillers, a fly ash slurry, an emulsion, and a rubberized asphalt mixture, were used along with a control section with no crack filler material on a 2.5 mile section of Cerro Gordo Trunk Route S-25 south of the town of Thornton. This report discusses the construction and performance of each filler material and makes recommendations concerning future use of any of the materials used.
Resumo:
In a series of seminal articles in 1974, 1975, and 1977, J. H. Gillespie challenged the notion that the "fittest" individuals are those that produce on average the highest number of offspring. He showed that in small populations, the variance in fecundity can determine fitness as much as mean fecundity. One likely reason why Gillespie's concept of within-generation bet hedging has been largely ignored is the general consensus that natural populations are of large size. As a consequence, essentially no work has investigated the role of the fecundity variance on the evolutionary stable state of life-history strategies. While typically large, natural populations also tend to be subdivided in local demes connected by migration. Here, we integrate Gillespie's measure of selection for within-generation bet hedging into the inclusive fitness and game theoretic measure of selection for structured populations. The resulting framework demonstrates that selection against high variance in offspring number is a potent force in large, but structured populations. More generally, the results highlight that variance in offspring number will directly affect various life-history strategies, especially those involving kin interaction. The selective pressures on three key traits are directly investigated here, namely within-generation bet hedging, helping behaviors, and the evolutionary stable dispersal rate. The evolutionary dynamics of all three traits are markedly affected by variance in offspring number, although to a different extent and under different demographic conditions.
Resumo:
This paper focused on four alternatives of analysis of experiments in square lattice as far as the estimation of variance components and some genetic parameters are concerned: 1) intra-block analysis with adjusted treatment and blocks within unadjusted repetitions; 2) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks; 3) intrablock analysis with unadjusted treatment and blocks within adjusted repetitions; 4) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks, by utilizing the adjusted means of treatments, obtained from the analysis with recovery of interblock information, having as mean square of the error the mean effective variance of this same analysis with recovery of inter-block information. For the four alternatives of analysis, the estimators and estimates were obtained for the variance components and heritability coefficients. The classification of material was also studied. The present study suggests that for each experiment and depending of the objectives of the analysis, one should observe which alternative of analysis is preferable, mainly in cases where a negative estimate is obtained for the variance component due to effects of blocks within adjusted repetitions.
Resumo:
Drug screening is an important issue in clinical and forensic toxicology. Gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS) remains the gold standard technique for the screening of unknown compounds in urine samples. However, this technique requires substantial sample preparation, which is time consuming. Moreover, some common drugs such as cannabis cannot be easily detected in urine using general procedures. In this work, a sample preparation protocol for treating 200 μL of urine in less than 30 min is described. The enzymatic hydrolysis of glucuro-conjugates was performed in 5 min thanks to the use of microwaves. The use of a deconvolution software allowed reducing the GC-MS run to 10 min, without impairing the quality of the compound identifications. Comparing the results from 139 authentic urine samples to those obtained using the current routine analysis indicated this method performed well. Moreover, additional 5-min GC-MS/MS programs are described, enabling a very sensitive target screening of 54 drugs, including THC-COOH or buprenorphine, without further sample preparation. These methods appeared as an interesting alternative to immuno-assays based screening. The analytical strategy presented in this article proved to be a promising approach for systematic toxicological analysis (STA) of drugs in urine.
Resumo:
The current study proposes a new procedure for separately estimating slope change and level change between two adjacent phases in single-case designs. The procedure eliminates baseline trend from the whole data series prior to assessing treatment effectiveness. The steps necessary to obtain the estimates are presented in detail, explained, and illustrated. A simulation study is carried out to explore the bias and precision of the estimators and compare them to an analytical procedure matching the data simulation model. The experimental conditions include two data generation models, several degrees of serial dependence, trend, level and/or slope change. The results suggest that the level and slope change estimates provided by the procedure are unbiased for all levels of serial dependence tested and trend is effectively controlled for. The efficiency of the slope change estimator is acceptable, whereas the variance of the level change estimator may be problematic for highly negatively autocorrelated data series.
Resumo:
Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.
Resumo:
Asphalt concrete resurfacing is the most commonly utilized rehabilitation practice used by the Iowa Department of Transportation. The major problem with asphalt concrete resurfacing is the reflective cracking from underlying cracks and joints in the portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement. Cracking and seating the PCC prior to an asphalt overlay was the construction method evaluated in this project. There was cracking and seating on portions of the project and portions were overlaid without this process. There were also different overlay thicknesses used. Comparisons of crack and seating to the normal overlay method and the different depths are compared in this report. Cracking and seating results in some structural loss, but does reduce the problem of reflection cracking.
Resumo:
In Iowa it is normal procedure to either use partial or full-depth patching to repair deteriorated areas of pavement prior to resurfacing. The Owens/Corning Corporation introduced a repair system to replace the patching process. Their Roadglas repair system was used in this research project on US 30 in Story County. It was installed in 1985 and has been observed annually since that time. There were some construction problems with slippage as the roller crossed the abundant Roadglas binder. It appears the Roadglas system has helped to control reflective cracking in the research areas. Since the time when this project was completed it has been reported that Owens/Corning has discontinued production of the Roadglas system.