Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product e¤ects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990's

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product effects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market. JEL classi…fication numbers: C43, E31, L11, L13, Keywords: Hedonic price indexes, Spanish car market, car prices, CPI, Cost of living

Fonaments i actuacions de lideratge sistèmic d'un equip de bàsquet professional i futures aplicacions

El treball de recerca “Fonaments i actuacions de lideratge sistèmic d’un equip de bàsquet professional i futures aplicacions” fa l’anàlisi d’una experiència real vinculada al món de l’esport professional. Es pretén donar a conèixer com l’estructuració del coneixement de l’entrenador pot afavorir el bon funcionament de l’equip. L’estructuració ens genera criteri i coherència a l’hora de prendre decisions.Es reconeix a l’entrenador com una persona treballadora, apassionada per la seva feina i en constant creixement individual. Valors com la humilitat, l’entusiasme, el compromís, la generositat i l’autoexigència es converteixen en adjectius fonamentals del nostre entrenador.L’estudi en l’autoconeixement en conceptes com lideratge, nivells neurològics, talent i motivació esdevenen el pal de paller en la construcció de l’equip. Un equip amb identitat pròpia, on el benefici pel bé comú (equip) està per sobre de tot, cooperatiu, compromès, i on la figura de l’entrenador intuïtiu amb coneixement influeix més per convenciment que per autoritat.El treball del dia a dia de l’entrenador i de l´equip es fonamenta en l’organització dels pilars de l’entrenador: flexibilitat, creixement de l’entrenador, equip, marges col·lectiu i individual són els motors del bon funcionament del col·lectiu. En el treball presentat, es destaca la importància de saber diferenciar, en el rendiment d’un equip, dues vessants: una més objectiva (tècnica, tàctica, estratègia i física) i l’altra on el factor humà és determinant. La investigació aprofundeix en aquest segon factor i el reconeix com a preferent. Per acabar es presenten tot un seguit d’actuacions utilitzades al llarg de la investigació amb la finalitat de generar, mantenir i millorar l’equip al mateix temps que es mostren diferents eines per tal d’optimitzar l’eficiència de les actuacions. La investigació pretén ser una experiència útil i enriquidora a l’hora d’estructurar el coneixement per tal de poder ser utilitzat en futures aplicacions.

Price policies and Price dispersion in the private healthcare insurance industry: The Catalan case

We present an overlapping generations model that explains price dispersion among Catalonian healthcare insurance firms. The model shows that firms with different premium policies can coexist. Furthermore, if interest rates are low, firms that apply equal premium to all insureds can charge higher average prices than insurers that set premiums according to the risk of insured. Economic theory, health insurance, health economics.

Fit Futures - Executive Summary (PDF 298 KB)

Executive Summary of the Fit Futures Report

Fit Futures: Focus on Food, Activity and Young People (PDF 861 KB)

The Fit Futures: Focus on Food, Activity and Young People report

Community Health Nursing: Current Practice and Possible Futures (PDF 298 KB)

Community Health Nursing: Current Practice and Possible Futures

Factor shares, the price markup, and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.

In a Walrasian labor market, the labor income share is constant under the assumptions of a Cobb-Douglas production function and perfect competition. Given the observed decline of the labor share in recent decades, this paper relaxes these assumptions, proposes a time-series calculation of the aggregate price mark-up reflecting the degree of imperfect competition in the product market, and provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution under such product market imperfections. We focus on Spain and the U.S. and show that the elasticity of substitution is above one in Spain and below one in the U.S. We also show that the price markup drives the elasticity of substitution away from one, upwards in Spain, downwards in the U.S. These results are used to explain the declining path of the labor income share, common to both economies, and their contrasted patterns in terms of capital deepening.

Report to the Minister for Health and Children: Independent Examination related to the Medical Council and South-Eastern Health Board (Dr John Harding Price)

The Minister for Health and Children has requested that an independent review be carried out of the circumstances surrounding the employment of a UK based Consultant Psychiatrist, Dr John Harding-Price, to a locum psychiatrist position with the South Eastern Health Board (SEHB) while he was suspended by the General Medical Council (GMC) in the United Kingdom and consequently the subject of legal proceedings by the Medical Council in Ireland. The Consultant was continuously registered with the Medical Council since 1968. Download the document here

What Price Salvation? The Exchange of Salvation goods between India and the West

Does Weber's notion of salvation goods, along with the connected one of the religious market, apply to the modern history of yoga? The case study chosen here (the yoga of Pattabhi Jois) clearly shows that these notions highlight many aspects of the expansion of yoga into a global market product. However, the notion of salvation goods resists the new hermeneutical situation of encounter and has to be adapted to the present situation of religious "patchwork". The notion of religious market lacks depth to describe the various understandings and appropriations of yoga in precise historical situations. Other aspects of the current global status of yoga may be highlighted by applying the concept of pilgrimage. La notion de bien de salut que nous lègue Max Weber et la notion de marché religieux qui en découle peuvent-elles s'appliquer à l'histoire moderne du yoga? L'étude de cas que nous consacrons au yoga de Pattabhi Jois montre que ces notions éclairent bien certains aspects de l'expansion du yoga en tant que produit d'un marché globalisé. Cependant la notion de bien de salut résiste à une réflexion de type herméneutique sur les processus de rencontres et doit être adaptée à la situation contemporaine, ou` les religions se présentent comme des ensembles composites. La notion de marché religieux ne permet pas d'expliquer les diverses compréhensions et appropriations du yoga dans des situations historiques précises. D'autres aspects de la situation du yoga sont mieux explicités si on prend le concept de pèlerinage comme point de référence.