A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Supervision and career counsellors: A little-explored practice with an uncertain future

While the supervision of counsellors has received much attention in the literature, there is a dearth of empirical and conceptual literature about the supervision of career counsellors. Career counselling has not to date followed other helping professions towards increased requirements for supervision or compulsory supervision. Recently there has been slight evidence of change and some advocacy of supervision for career counsellors in the literature. However, no previous studies related to supervision and career counsellors have been conducted. The Australian study reported here gathered information from members of a professional career counselling association about supervision through survey and focus group interviews. The findings revealed that supervision is not widely practised and that there are varying levels of understanding of and commitment to supervision.

Cancer detection and mammogram volume of radiologists in a population-based screening programme

This study investigates the relationship between the number of screening mammograms read by radiologists and the screening breast cancer detection rate. Cancer detection rates for incident screens (all women aged >= 40 years) were compared by increasing categories of reader volume using Poisson regression. Data from New South Wales (NSW) for a 2 year period (2000-2001) were obtained from the BreastScreen NSW programme. Cancer detection rates increased with the number of mammograms read in the programme, reaching a plateau of approximately 40 per 10,000 after 1375 mammograms per year. No significant differences in cancer detection were evident above 875 mammograms (compared to below 875 mammograms) per year (RR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stepwise approach to stroke surveillance in Brazil: the EMMA (Estudo de Mortalidade e Morbidade do Acidente Vascular Cerebral) study

Background Stroke mortality rates in Brazil are the highest in the Americas. Deaths from cerebrovascular disease surpass coronary heart disease. Aim To verify stroke mortality rates and morbidity in an area of Sao Paulo, Brazil, using the World Health Organization Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance. Methods We used the World Health Organization Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance structure of stroke surveillance. The hospital-based data comprised fatal and nonfatal stroke (Step 1). We gathered stroke-related mortality data in the community using World Health Organization questionnaires (Step 2). The questionnaire determining stroke prevalence was activated door to door in a family-health-programme neighbourhood (Step 3). Results A total of 682 patients 18 years and above, including 472 incident cases, presented with cerebrovascular disease and were enrolled in Step 1 during April-May 2009. Cerebral infarction (84 center dot 3%) and first-ever stroke (85 center dot 2%) were the most frequent. In Step 2, 256 deaths from stroke were identified during 2006-2007. Forty-four per cent of deaths were classified as unspecified stroke, 1/3 as ischaemic stroke, and 1/4 due to haemorrhagic subtype. In Step 3, 577 subjects over 35 years old were evaluated at home, and 244 cases of stroke survival were diagnosed via a questionnaire, validated by a board-certified neurologist. The population demographic characteristics were similar in the three steps, except in terms of age and gender. Conclusion By including data from all settings, World Health Organization stroke surveillance can provide data to help plan future resources that meet the needs of the public-health system.

Effect of a sequential education and monitoring programme on quality-of-life components in heart failure

Aims Trials of disease management programmes (DMP) in heart failure (HF) have shown controversial results regarding quality of life. We hypothesized that a DMP applied over the long-term could produce different effects on each of the quality-of-life components. Methods and results We extended the prospective, randomized REMADHE Trial, which studied a DMP in HF patients. We analysed changes in Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire components in 412 patients, 60.5% male, age 50.2 +/- 11.4 years, left ventricular ejection fraction 34.7 +/- 10.5%. During a mean follow-up of 3.6 +/- 2.2 years, 6.3% of patients underwent heart transplantation and 31.8% died. Global quality-of-life scores improved in the DMP intervention group, compared with controls, respectively: 57.5 +/- 3.1 vs. 52.6 +/- 4.3 at baseline, 32.7 +/- 3.9 vs. 40.2 +/- 6.3 at 6 months, 31.9 +/- 4.3 vs. 41.5 +/- 7.4 at 12 months, 26.8 +/- 3.1 vs. 47.0 +/- 5.3 at the final assessment; P<0.01. Similarly, the physical component (23.7 +/- 1.4 vs. 21.1 +/- 2.2 at baseline, 16.2 +/- 2.9 vs. 18.0 +/- 3.3 at 6 months, 17.3 +/- 2.9 vs. 23.1 +/- 5.7 at 12 months, 11.4 +/- 1.6 vs. 19.9 +/- 2.4 final; P<0.01), the emotional component (13.2 +/- 1.0 vs. 12.1 +/- 1.4 at baseline, 11.7 +/- 2.7 vs. 12.3 +/- 3.1 at 6 months, 12.4 +/- 2.9 vs. 16.8 +/- 5.9 at 12 months, 6.7 +/- 1.0 vs. 10.6 +/- 1.4 final; P<0.01) and the additional questions (20.8 +/- 1.2 vs. 19.3 +/- 1.8 at baseline, 14.3 +/- 2.7 vs. 17.3 +/- 3.1 at 6 months, 12.4 +/- 2.9 vs. 21.0 +/- 5.5 at 12 months, 6.7 +/- 1.4 vs. 17.3 +/- 2.2 final; P<0.01) were better (lower) in the intervention group. The emotional component improved earlier than the others. Post-randomization quality of life was not associated with events. Conclusion Components of the quality-of-life assessment responded differently to DMP. These results indicate the need for individualized DMP strategies in patients with HF. Trial registration information www.clincaltrials.gov NCT00505050-REMADHE.

Chinese wool auctions: Failed agribusiness reform or future marketing channel?

The spectacular though short-lived operation of China's wool auctions graphically illustrates problems in reforming China's agribusiness sector. A selective coverage of product type and participants, a highly contrived process of price discovery, and an urgent need for parallel reform in related areas all led to the demise of the auctions and are a barrier to their re-emergence as a viable wool marketing channel. Despite the challenges facing wool auctions, this paper argues that they still have much to offer the marketing of wool in China.