ESSAYS IN ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

This dissertation studies technological change in the context of energy and environmental economics. Technology plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Chapter 1 estimates a structural model of the car industry that allows for endogenous product characteristics to investigate how gasoline taxes, R&D subsidies and competition affect fuel efficiency and vehicle prices in the medium-run, both through car-makers' decisions to adopt technologies and through their investments in knowledge capital. I use technology adoption and automotive patents data for 1986-2006 to estimate this model. I show that 92% of fuel efficiency improvements between 1986 and 2006 were driven by technology adoption, while the role of knowledge capital is largely to reduce the marginal production costs of fuel-efficient cars. A counterfactual predicts that an additional $1/gallon gasoline tax in 2006 would have increased the technology adoption rate, and raised average fuel efficiency by 0.47 miles/gallon, twice the annual fuel efficiency improvement in 2003-2006. An R&D subsidy that would reduce the marginal cost of knowledge capital by 25% in 2006 would have raised investment in knowledge capital. This subsidy would have raised fuel efficiency only by 0.06 miles/gallon in 2006, but would have increased variable profits by $2.3 billion over all firms that year. Passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in the United States will require substantial improvements in new vehicle fuel economy over the next decade. Economic theory suggests that vehicle manufacturers adopt greater fuel-saving technologies for vehicles with larger market size. Chapter 2 documents a strong connection between market size, measured by sales, and technology adoption. Using variation consumer demographics and purchasing pattern to account for the endogeneity of market size, we find that a 10 percent increase in market size raises vehicle fuel efficiency by 0.3 percent, as compared to a mean improvement of 1.4 percent per year over 1997-2013. Historically, fuel price and demographic-driven market size changes have had large effects on technology adoption. Furthermore, fuel taxes would induce firms to adopt fuel-saving technologies on their most efficient cars, thereby polarizing the fuel efficiency distribution of the new vehicle fleet.

Essays in Personal Transportation Demand and Consumer Finance

This dissertation is composed of three essays covering two areas of interest. The first topic is personal transportation demand with a focus on price and fuel efficiency elasticities of mileage demand, challenging assumptions common in the rebound effect literature. The second topic is consumer finance with a focus on small loans. The first chapter creates separate variables for fuel prices during periods of increasing and decreasing prices as well as an observed fuel economy measure to empirically test the equivalence of these elasticities. Using a panel from Germany from 1997 to 2009 I find a fuel economy elasticity of mileage of 53.3%, which is significantly different from the gas price elasticity of mileage during periods of decreasing gas prices, 4.8%. I reject the null hypothesis or price symmetry, with the elasticity of mileage during period of increasing gas prices ranging from 26.2% and 28.9%. The second chapter explores the potential for the rebound effect to vary with income. Panel data from U.S. households from 1997 to 2003 is used to estimate the rebound effect in a median regression. The estimated rebound effect independent of income ranges from 17.8% to 23.6%. An interaction of income and fuel economy is negative and significant, indicating that the rebound effect may be much higher for low income individuals and decreases with income; the rebound effect for low income households ranged from 80.3% to 105.0%, indicating that such households may increase gasoline consumption given an improvement in fuel economy. The final chapter documents the costs of credit instruments found in major mail order catalogs throughout the 20th century. This study constructs a new dataset and finds that the cost of credit increased and became stickier as mail order retailers switched from an installment-style closed-end loan to a revolving-style credit card. This study argues that revolving credit's ability to decrease salience of credit costs in the price of goods is the best explanation for rate stickiness in the mail order industry as well as for the preference of revolving credit among retailers.

MODELING AND EXPERIMENTAL SETUP OF AN HCCI ENGINE

For the past three decades the automotive industry is facing two main conflicting challenges to improve fuel economy and meet emissions standards. This has driven the engineers and researchers around the world to develop engines and powertrain which can meet these two daunting challenges. Focusing on the internal combustion engines there are very few options to enhance their performance beyond the current standards without increasing the price considerably. The Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine technology is one of the combustion techniques which has the potential to partially meet the current critical challenges including CAFE standards and stringent EPA emissions standards. HCCI works on very lean mixtures compared to current SI engines, resulting in very low combustion temperatures and ultra-low NOx emissions. These engines when controlled accurately result in ultra-low soot formation. On the other hand HCCI engines face a problem of high unburnt hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions. This technology also faces acute combustion controls problem, which if not dealt properly with yields highly unfavorable operating conditions and exhaust emissions. This thesis contains two main parts. One part deals in developing an HCCI experimental setup and the other focusses on developing a grey box modelling technique to control HCCI exhaust gas emissions. The experimental part gives the complete details on modification made on the stock engine to run in HCCI mode. This part also comprises details and specifications of all the sensors, actuators and other auxiliary parts attached to the conventional SI engine in order to run and monitor the engine in SI mode and future SI-HCCI mode switching studies. In the latter part around 600 data points from two different HCCI setups for two different engines are studied. A grey-box model for emission prediction is developed. The grey box model is trained with the use of 75% data and the remaining data is used for validation purpose. An average of 70% increase in accuracy for predicting engine performance is found while using the grey-box over an empirical (black box) model during this study. The grey-box model provides a solution for the difficulty faced for real time control of an HCCI engine. The grey-box model in this thesis is the first study in literature to develop a control oriented model for predicting HCCI engine emissions for control.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY AND OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS OF AUTOMOTIVE POWERTRAIN ARCHITECTURES THROUGH CHASSIS DYNAMOMETER TESTING

The thesis "COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY AND OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS OF AUTOMOTIVE POWERTRAIN ARCHITECTURES THROUGH CHASSIS DYNAMOMETER TESTING" was completed through a collaborative partnership between Michigan Technological University and Argonne National Laboratory under a contractual agreement titled "Advanced Vehicle Characterization at Argonne National Laboratory". The goal of this project was to investigate, understand and document the performance and operational strategy of several modern passenger vehicles of various architectures. The vehicles were chosen to represent several popular engine and transmission architectures and were instrumented to allow for data collection to facilitate comparative analysis. In order to ensure repeatability and reliability during testing, each vehicle was tested over a series of identical drive cycles in a controlled environment utilizing a vehicle chassis dynamometer. Where possible, instrumentation was preserved between vehicles to ensure robust data collection. The efficiency and fuel economy performance of the vehicles was studied. In addition, the powertrain utilization strategies, significant energy loss sources, tailpipe emissions, combustion characteristics, and cold start behavior were also explored in detail. It was concluded that each vehicle realizes different strengths and suffers from different limitations in the course of their attempts to maximize efficiency and fuel economy. In addition, it was observed that each vehicle regardless of architecture exhibits significant energy losses and difficulties in cold start operation that can be further improved with advancing technology. It is clear that advanced engine technologies and driveline technologies are complimentary aspects of vehicle design that must be utilized together for best efficiency improvements. Finally, it was concluded that advanced technology vehicles do not come without associated cost; the complexity of the powertrains and lifecycle costs must be considered to understand the full impact of advanced vehicle technology.

Political economy of low sulfurization and air pollution control policy in Japan : SOx emission reduction by fuel conversion

In the early stages of the development of Japan’s environmental policy, sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions, which seriously damage health, was the most important air pollution problem. In the second half of the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, the measures against SOx emissions progressed quickly, and these emissions were reduced drastically. The most important factor of the reduction was the conversion to a low-sulfur fuel for large-scale fuel users, such as the electric power industry. However, industries started conversion to low-sulfur fuel not due to environmental concerns, but simply to reduce costs. Furthermore, the interaction among the various interests of the electric power industry, oil refineries, the central government, local governments, and citizens over the energy and environmental policies led to the measures against SOx emissions by fuel conversion.

Minerals in the U.S. economy : ten-year supply-demand profiles for mineral and fuel commodities (1966-1975) /

Mode of access: Internet.

The use of methane as automotive fuel – a step to sustainable economy?

The introduction of CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) as automotive fuel began in Italy as early as in mid- 1930s, and ever since the Italian market has always been highly advanced in this regard. Many other countries followed, some of them quite recently, but nevertheless with impressive results. The appeal of this automotive fuel is based on the fact that compared to gasoline, diesel and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), CNG is cleaner and cheaper; even more so, this fuel is renewable – it can be produced locally from biogas. Despite its obvious benefits, CNG is barely present in Hungary. This article provides an insight into the topic, highlights obstacles to introduction and suggests appropriate governmental steps. The information is intended to support the activities and the decision-making process of governmental officials, municipalities, car-fleet managers, car dealers and their service departments.

EXPERIENCE OF OPERATING OPEN TOP BIOMASS GASIFIER USING A LOW DENSITY FUEL-COCONUT FRONDS

Use of fuel other than woody generally has been limited to rice husk and other residues are rarely tried as a fuel in a gasification system. With the availability of woody biomass in most countries like India, alternates fuels are being explored for sustainable supply of fuel. Use of agro residues has been explored after briquetting. There are few feedstock's like coconut fronts, maize cobs, etc, that might require lesser preprocessing steps compared to briquetting. The paper presents a detailed investigation into using coconut fronds as a fuel in an open top down draft gasification system. The fuel has ash content of 7% and was dried to moisture levels of 12 %. The average bulk density was found to be 230 kg/m3 with a fuel size particle of an average size 40 mm as compared to 350 kg/m3 for a standard wood pieces. A typical dry coconut fronds weighs about 2.5kgs and on an average 6 m long and 90 % of the frond is the petiole which is generally used as a fuel. The focus was also to compare the overall process with respect to operating with a typical woody biomass like subabul whose ash content is 1 %. The open top gasification system consists of a reactor, cooling and cleaning system along with water treatment. The performance parameters studied were the gas composition, tar and particulates in the clean gas, water quality and reactor pressure drop apart from other standard data collection of fuel flow rate, etc. The average gas composition was found to be CO 15 1.0 % H-2 16 +/- 1% CH4 0.5 +/- 0.1 % CO2 12.0 +/- 1.0 % and rest N2 compared to CO 19 +/- 1.0 % H-2 17 +/- 1.0 %, CH4 1 +/- 0.2 %, CO2 12 +/- 1.0 % and rest N2. The tar and particulate content in the clean gas has been found to be about 10 and 12 mg/m3 in both cases. The presence of high ash content material increased the pressure drop with coconut frond compared to woody biomass.

BIOMASS GASIFICATION TO SUBSTITUTE FOSSIL FUEL IN FOOD INDUSTRY

Food industries like biscuit and confectionary use significant amount of fossil fuel for thermal energy. Biscuit manufacturing in India is carried out both by organized and unorganized sector. The ratio of organized to unorganized sector is 60 : 40 (1). The total biscuit manufacturing in the organized sector India in 2008 was about 1.7 million metric tons (1). Accounting for the unorganized sector in India, the total biscuit manufacturing would have been about 2.9 million metric tons/annum. A typical biscuit baking is carried in a long tunnel kiln with varying temperature in different zones. Generally diesel is used to provide the necessary heat energy for the baking purpose, with temperature ranging from 190 C in the drying zone to about 300 C in the baking area and has to maintain in the temperature range of +/- 5 C. Typical oil consumption is about 40 litres per ton of biscuit production. The paper discusses the experience in substituting about 120 lts per hour kiln for manufacturing about 70 tons of biscuit daily. The system configuration consists of a 500 kg/hr gasification system comprising of a reactor, multicyclone, water scrubbers, and two blowers for maintaining the constant gas pressure in the header before the burners. Cold producer gas is piped to the oven located about 200 meters away from the gasifier. Fuel used in the gasification system is coconut shells. All the control system existing on the diesel burner has been suitably adapted for producer gas operation to maintain the total flow, A/F control so as to maintain the temperature. A total of 7 burners are used in different zones. Over 17000 hour of operation has resulted in replacing over 1800 tons of diesel over the last 30 months. The system operates for over 6 days a week with average operational hours of 160. It has been found that on an average 3.5 kg of biomass has replaced one liter of diesel.

The role of macrophytes in the economy of the lower Sondu-Miriu river of Lake Victoria

This paper highlights the results of a 12 month's ecological study of macrophytes and their role in the economy of the lower Sondu-Miriu river of Lake Victoria. A total of 34 species of aquatic macrophytes were identified. These were grouped as emergent, floating leaved, free floating and submersed. The major community type identified were dominated by Cladium jamaicanse (Crantz) Kurk., Cyperus paprus (L.) and Cyperus latifolius (Poir). The study observed an over dependence on macrophytes by the local community for the supply of bedding, grazing fields, fuel, roofing and other building materials. The white (heart) of Typha shoot, Nile cabbage (Pistia stratiotes and a legume solanum nigrum traditionally known as "osuga" are used as vegetables by local community. The only source of protein in this arid region is the fish caught in the swamps and birds which inhabit the swamp. The swamp provides the only source of green pasture in the dry season for the animals. An export oriented economy has developed involving mat making and basket weaving with exports reaching as far as Japan. The study proposes a rational and sustainable exploitation of the littoral zone to support the adjacent rural community.

Seeing the forest for the fuel

We demonstrate a new approach to understanding the role of fuelwood in the rural household economy by applying insights from travel cost modeling to author-compiled household survey data and meso-scale environmental statistics from Ruteng Park in Flores, Indonesia. We characterize Manggarai farming households' fuelwood collection trips as inputs into household production of the utility yielding service of cooking and heating. The number of trips taken by households depends on the shadow price of fuelwood collection or the travel cost, which is endogenous. Econometric analyses using truncated negative binomial regression models and correcting for endogeneity show that the Manggarai are 'economically rational' about fuelwood collection and access to the forests for fuelwood makes substantial contributions to household welfare. Increasing cost of forest access, wealth, use of alternative fuels, ownership of kerosene stoves, trees on farm, park staff activity, primary schools and roads, and overall development could all reduce dependence on collecting fuelwood from forests. © 2004 Cambridge University Press.

Fuel switching

The present Master dissertation is a project whose main objective is to identify value creation opportunities through fuel switching in the Portuguese industry, services, agriculture and fishing sectors. Fuel switching opportunities are characterized by type of fuel transition, type of technology transition, economy subsectors prone to have fuel switching and value created through fuel shift. Results suggest tomato concentrate, dairy, beer manufacturing and sugar refining subsectors is where prevalence of fuel oil steam boilers is high, for such cases conversion to natural gas steam boilers should result in operations having a ratio of NPV over CAPEX larger than ten and a payback period just under one year. Results further suggest food, beverages, textile, chemicals and wood subsectors currently operate between ten and twenty cogeneration Diesel engines that can be either modified to operate with natural gas or replaced by new natural gas cogeneration systems. Financial modeling indicates that both options have great value creation potential. The current analysis aims to be used by natural gas suppliers and energy project promoters to identify new potential deals as well as by heavy energy consumers to mitigate their energy related costs.

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2012: policies for an adverse international economy

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011: The region in the decade of the emerging economies

Incluye Bibliografía

Energy efficiency and mobility: A roadmap towards a greener economy in Latin America and the Caribbean

Much analysis and proposals on sustainable transport policies have been developed around the world, both at government and research institutions. It is clear that no action will provide the single solution and it is imperative to act simultaneously on: i) improvement of technology in vehicles, leading to increased energy efficiency; ii) the change in driver behavior, to use less fuel per kilometer; iii) reducing the distances traveled per vehicle; and iv) a change in the type of travels towards more sustainable modes of transport.In general, the recommendations for energy efficiency in transport are mainly focused on the first two priorities on the list, while the portfolios of policies —instrumental to the needs of the countries— should use trans-sectoral and multi-dimensional approaches, such as public transport planning and land use. In ECLAC, we consider that the time has come to provide Latin American and Caribbean countries with a deeper understanding and a more strategic vision (and adapted to the realities of the region) on these issues; in this sense, we hope that this document will help countries to improve and further expand their portfolios of energy efficiency policies in the transport sector, in order to achieve the ambitious goals of energy efficiency, needed to ensure a sustainable energy future.