Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

Sex ratio and morphological characteristics of rufous gnateaters, Conopophaga lineata (Aves, Passeriformes) in Atlantic forest fragments

Unequal sex ratios lead to the loss of genetic variability, decreasing the viability of populations in the long term. Anthropogenic activities often disturb the natural habitats and can cause alterations in sex ratio and morphological characteristics of several species. Forest fragmentation is a major conservation concern, so that understanding its effects in natural populations is essential. In this study, we evaluated the sex ratio and the morphological characteristics of Rufous Gnateaters (Conopophaga lineata (Wied, 1831)) in small and large forest fragments in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Birds (n = 89) were sexed by plumage characteristics and molecular markers. The molecular analysis showed that plumage is not a totally reliable method for sexing Rufous Gnateaters. We observed that sex ratio did not differ between large and small forest fragments, but birds in small fragments had larger wings and tarsus. Wing and tarsus changes may affect the movement ability of individuals within and among forest fragments. In conclusion, Rufous Gnateaters have been able to survive in both small and large Atlantic rain forest fragments without altering their sex ratio, but morphological changes can be prejudicial to their long term survival.

Lp-solutions to BSDEs with super-linear growth coefficient. Application to degenerate semilinear PDEs.

We consider multidimensional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions when the coefficient grow super-linearly, and moreover, can be neither locally Lipschitz in the variable y nor in the variable z. This is done with super-linear growth coefficient and a p-integrable terminal condition (p & 1). As application, we establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions to degenerate semilinear PDEs with superlinear growth generator and an Lp-terminal data, p & 1. Our result cover, for instance, the case of PDEs with logarithmic nonlinearities.

Biomphalaria Tenagophila Guaibensis ssp. n. from Southern Brazil and Uruguay (pulmonata: Planorbidae). I. Morphology

A new subspecies of planorbid snail, biomphalaria tenagophila guaibensis, is described. It has been found along the coastal belt of the Brazilian state of rio grande do Sul and the middle part of Uruguay, from Porto Alegre to Mercedes. It differs from the nominate subspecies, Biomphalaria tenagophila tenagophila, in the appearance of the penial complex (prepuce longer and proportionally slenderer in B. t. guaibensis, shorter and proportionally stouter in b. t. tenagophila), in the ratio between the lengths of the penial sheath and the prepuce, in the ratio between the lengths of the uterine complex and the penial complex, and in a coefficient of difference of 2.44 for the ratio between the penis sheath and prepuce and of 2.02 for the ratio between the uterine complex and penial complex. The shell and the other organs of the genital system are similar in both subspecies. B. t. guaibensis is very similar to Biomphalaria occidentalis Paraense, 1981, but is readily separated from it by the presence of a vaginal pouch, which is lacking in the latter, besides showing highly significant difference in the penis sheath: prepuce and uterine complex: penial complex ratios. Crossbreeding experiments which lend additional support to the recognition of B. t. guaibensis as a subspecies will be reported elsewhere.

Detection of testosterone administration based on the carbon isotope ratio profiling of endogenous steroids: international reference populations of professional soccer players.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The determination of the carbon isotope ratio in androgen metabolites has been previously shown to be a reliable, direct method to detect testosterone misuse in the context of antidoping testing. Here, the variability in the 13C/12C ratios in urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South Africa, Switzerland and Uganda) is examined. METHODS: Carbon isotope ratios of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined using gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). RESULTS: Urinary steroids in Italian and Swiss populations were found to be enriched in 13C relative to other groups, reflecting higher consumption of C3 plants in these two countries. Importantly, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were found to be well below the established threshold value for positive cases. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained with the tested diet groups highlight the importance of adapting the criteria if one wishes to increase the sensitivity of exogenous testosterone detection. In addition, confirmatory tests might be rendered more efficient by combining isotope ratio mass spectrometry with refined interpretation criteria for positivity and subject-based profiling of steroids.

Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests for OECD and non-OECD countries

This paper applies recently developed heterogeneous nonlinear and linear panel unit root tests that account for cross-sectional dependence to 24 OECD and 33 non-OECD countries’ consumption-income ratios over the period 1951–2003. We apply a recently developed methodology that facilitates the use of panel tests to identify which individual cross-sectional units are stationary and which are nonstationary. This extends evidence provided in the recent literature to consider both linear and nonlinear adjustment in panel unit root tests, to address the issue of cross-sectional dependence, and to substantially expand both time-series and cross sectional dimensions of the data analysed. We find that the majority (65%) of the series are nonstationary with slightly fewer OECD countries’ (61%) series exhibiting a unit root than non-OECD countries (68%).

Analog Modelling of N-S anticlines of the External Sierras (Jaca basin, Southern Pyrenees)

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Uppsala Universitet, Sweden, from April to July the 2007. Two series of analogue models are used to explore ductile-frictional contrasts of the basal décollement in the development of oblique and transverse structures simultaneously to thin-skinned shortening. These models simulate the evolution of the Central External Sierras (Southern Pyrenees, Spain), which constitute the frontal emerging part of the southernmost Pyrenean thrust sheet. They are characterized by the presence of transverse N-S to NW-SE anticlines, which are perpendicular to the Pyrenean structural trend and developed in the hangingwall of the Santo Domingo thrust system, detaching on an unevenly distributed Triassic materials (evaporitic-dolomitic interfingerings). Model setup performs a décollement made by three patches of silicone neighbouring pure brittle sand. Model series A test the thickness ratio between overburden and décollement. Model series B test the width of frictional detachment areas. Model results show how deformation reaches further in areas detached on ductile layer whereas frictional décollement areas assimilate the strain by means of an additional uplift. This replicates the structural style of Central External Sierras: higher structural relief of N-S anticlines with regard to orogen-parallel structures, absence of a representative ductile décollement in the core, tilting towards the orogen and foreland-side closure not thrusted by the frontal emerging South-Pyrenean thrust.

The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?

How does technical change influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? Using a nonlinear version of Okun’s Law augmented with technical change and technological distance, we show that the impact of output movements on unemployment variations is influenced by the imitation or innovation origins of technical change

Income stratification and between-group inequality

The paper demonstrates that the ratio of the Yitzhaki (1994) to the conventional measure of between-group inequality is in general equal to one minus twice the weighted average probability that a random member of a richer (on average) group is poorer than a random member of a poorer (on average) group, and may therefore be interpreted as an index of stratification in its own right.

Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio in Three Emerging Economies

The aim of this paper is to study inequality and deprivations as reflected in the human sex ratio (commonly defined as the number of males per 100 females). The particular focus is on three emerging economies, viz., Russia, India and China. The paper compares and contrasts the experiences of these countries and discusses policy issues. It is noted that while the feminist perspective on the issues surrounding the sex ratio is important, it would be wrong to view these issues always or exclusively through the prism of that perspective . It is also suggested that India and China probably have better prospects of sustained economic growth in the foreseeable future than does Russia.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Impact of the C2/C6 ratio of high-molecular-weight hydroxyethyl starch on pharmacokinetics and blood coagulation in pigs

Rapport de synthèse : Contexte: l'hydroxyéthylamidon (HEA) est largement utilisé comme expanseur volémique en anesthésiologie et réanimation. Cependant, cette classe de produits perturbe le system de la coagulation. Des améliorations restent possibles dans le choix de la combinaison optimale de poids moléculaire, de degré de substitution en radicaux éthyle et de localisation de ces radicaux sur le squelette glucidique des polymères, afin d'optimiser leur efficacité et leur tolérance. L'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué n'affecte pas plus la coagulation sanguine que de l'HEA de bas poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Nous examinons in vivo l'effet d'un abaissement du rapport C2/C6 sur les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques et l'impact sur la coagulation sanguine d'un HEA de haut poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Matériels et méthode: nous comparons dans une étude prospective, randomisée et parallèle l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 avec l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 auprès de 30 cochons. Avant, pendant et jusqu'à 630 minutes après une perfusion de 30 ml/kg d'HEA, des échantillons sanguins ont été collectés pour mesurer les concentrations d'HEA, les tests de coagulation plasmatique classiques et la coagulation sanguine par thrombélastographie (TEG®, Haemoscope Corporation, Niles, II, U.S.). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques ont été estimés en adaptant un modèle à deux compartiments. Résultats: la constante d'élimination est de 0.009 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 0.007 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p<0.001); la surface sous la courbe de concentration est de 1374 ± 340 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 1697 ± 411 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.026). Les concentrations mesurées d'HEA ne montrent pas de différence entre l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6. Les deux solutions d'HEA affectent de façon identique la coagulation sanguine: l'index de coagulation thrombélastographique diminue pareillement à ta fin de la perfusion d'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et d'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.29). De même, le temps de thromboplastine partielle activée et le temps de prothrombine augmentent de manière similaire pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.83). Conclusion: la réduction du rapport C2/C6 de l'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué aboutit à une élimination légèrement accélérée d'HEA. Cependant, elle ne modifie pas l'effet perturbateur sur la coagulation.