Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures

Many different performance measures have been developed to evaluate field predictions in meteorology. However, a researcher or practitioner encountering a new or unfamiliar measure may have difficulty in interpreting its results, which may lead to them avoiding new measures and relying on those that are familiar. In the context of evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications, this article aims to promote the use of a range of performance measures. Some of the types of performance measures that are introduced in order to demonstrate a six-step approach to tackle a new measure. Using the example of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation predictions for the Danube floods of July and August 2002, to show how to use new performance measures with this approach and the way to choose between different performance measures based on their suitability for the task at hand is shown. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

THE EXTENT OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY AUTHORSHIP OF ARTICLES ON SCIENTOMETRICS AND BIBLIOMETRICS IN BRAZIL

The publications in scientometrics and bibliometrics with Brazilian authorship expanded exponentially in the 1990-2006 period, reaching 13 times in the Web of Science database and 19.5 times in the Google Scholar database. This increase is rather superior to that of the total Brazilian scientific production in the same time period (5.6 times in the Web of Science). Some characteristics to be noticed in this rise are: 1) The total number of articles during this period was 197; in that, 78% were published in 57 Brazilian journals and 22% in 13 international journals. 2) The national and international articles averaged 4.3 and 5.9 citations/article, respectively; two journals stood out among these, the national Ciencia da Informacao (44 articles averaging 6.7 citations/article) and the international Scientometrics (32 articles averaging 6.2 citations/article). 3) The articles encompass an impressive participation of authors from areas other than information science; only one-fourth of the authors are bound to the information science field, the remaining ones being distributed among the areas of humanities/business administration, biology/biomedicine, health and hard sciences. The occurrence of adventitious authors at this level of multidisciplinarity is uncommon in science. However, the possible benefits of such patterns are not clear in view of a fragmented intercommunication among the authors, as noticed through the citations. The advantages of changing this trend and of using other scientometric and bibliometric databases, such as SciELO, to avoid an almost exclusive use of the Web of Science database, are discussed.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Lactic acid production by new Lactobacillus plantarum LMISM6 grown in molasses: optimization of medium composition

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relative contributions of beta-cell function and tissue insulin sensitivity to fasting and postglucose-load glycemia

We performed hyperglycemic clamps in 283 nondiabetic Caucasians and, with multiple linear regression, determined the contribution of beta-cell function and tissue insulin sensitivity to variations in glycemia and insulinemia during oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs). Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) subjects had reduced insulin sensitivity(P < .02) and beta-cell function (P < .0001). Normal glucose tolerance (NGT) subjects with first-degree type 2 diabetic relatives had reduced first and second phase insulin secretion (both, P < .05), but normal insulin sensitivity(P = .37). beta-Cell function and insulin sensitivity accounted for one fourth of the variability in glucose tolerance. Fasting plasma glucose in subjects with NGT (n = 185) was a function of both phases of insulin secretion and of insulin sensitivity tall, P < .05), whereas, in IGT subjects (n = 98), it was a function of first phase insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity(P < .01). Two-hour glycemia was a function of second phase secretion and insulin sensitivity (P < .01). Fasting and 2-hour plasma insulin levels were determined by insulin sensitivity land glycemia) in NGT subjects (P < .001), but by second phase secretion in IGT (P < .001). We conclude that beta-cell function is reduced in subjects with IGT; glycemia and insulinemia are not regulated by the same mechanisms in IGT and NGT; insulin sensitivity does not contribute to insulinemia in IGT; family history of diabetes influences beta-cell function, but not insulin sensitivity in Caucasians. Copyright (C) 2000 by W.B. Saunders Company.

Discrimination of complex visual stimuli in Cebus apella: identity matching with pictures

Do capuchin monkeys respond to photos as icons? Do they discriminate photos of capuchin monkeys' faces? Looking for answers to these questions we trained three capuchin monkeys in simple and conditional discrimination tasks and tested the discriminations when comparison stimuli were partially covered. Three capuchin monkeys experienced in simultaneous simple discrimination and IDMTS were trained with repeated shifts of simple discriminations (RSSD), with four simultaneous choices, and IDMTS (1 s delay, 4 choices) with pictures of known capuchins monkeys' faces. All monkeys did discriminate the pictures in both procedures. Performances in probes with partial masks with one fourth of the stimulus hidden were consistent with baseline level. Errors occurred when a picture similar to the correct one was available among the comparison stimuli, when the covered part was the most distinct, or when pictures displayed the same monkey. Capuchin monkeys do match pictures of capuchin monkeys' faces to the sample. The monkeys treated different pictures of the same monkey as equivalent, suggesting that they respond to the pictures as icons, although this was not true to pictures of other monkeys. Subsequent studies may bring more evidence that capuchin monkeys treat pictures as depictions of real scenes.

Analysis of Climatic Factors Impact on RSV Infection Distribution in Children Attending Childcare at Northwest Region of São Paulo, Brazil

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was detected in samples collected from children from 0 to 6 years of age with acute respiratory infection, attending public childcare on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil. RSV distribution was associated to seasonal climatic variables as temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. We utilized samples of nasopharyngeal aspirate collected during the period of July 2003 to September 2005. RT-PCR was the chosen method for viral identification. Results showed that from the 817 samples (collected from 179 children), 7.7% (63/817) were RSV positive. In 2003, RSV was detected from July until October. In 2004, RSV infections occurred in March, May, June, July, October, November, and December. In 2005, RSV was detected in March, April, May, August, and September. RSV circulation patterns in childcare children showed seasonal distribution associated to decreases in temperature and relative air humidity. RSV was detected in childcare children as an important viral agent causing respiratory infections, with varying patterns of circulation into the cohort during the study period. Moreover, RSV distribution showed to be associated with the dry season on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil.

Violence against children and adolescents: awareness and attitudes of Brazilian dentists

Violence against children and adolescents, ranging from negligence to sexual abuse, is an imperative public health problem. The ill treatments are considered as nonaccidental traumas, actions or omissions against children, who suffer physical or emotional violence. The main perpetrators are fathers, mothers, guardians, family, friends or the children‘s primary caretaker. It is very important to identify abuse cases, because this allows proper medical and legal intervention. In Brazil, the law n. 8.069, of July 13, 1990, known as the ECA -Statute for Children and Adolescents (SCA), stipulates the obligation to report suspected or confirmed cases of ill treatment against a child or adolescent to the Guardianship Council of the respective locality. The health professionals play a crucial role with regard to identifying cases of violence, collecting information, making early diagnosis of suspect cases and reporting such cases to the authorities. The dentists can contribute significantly, as most injuries occur in the orofacial region. Bite marks, burns, bruising, among others, are easily identified during a dental consultation. The aim of this work was to verify the awareness and attitudes of Brazilian dentists concerning violence against children and adolescents. This research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Dentistry of Araraquara – São Paulo State University (FOAr – UNESP). Sixty-three dentists answered an open and closed questionnaire concerning their formation, knowledge, experience and attitudes towards ill-treated children and adolescents. Among other results, thirty-nine dentists (61.9%) affirmed to have the means to identify illtreatment cases, 13 (20.6%) reported having some experience on this matter, but only 8 reported the cases to the Council of Guardianship, as determined by Brazilian law. Twenty percent of the reasons presented for not notifying the Council were fear of reprisal, and 60.0% were uncertain concerning the ethical and legal implications. Physical violence was the most reported form of identified violence (76.9%), followed by negligence (38.5%). Among the 13 professionals that had experience with violence cases, in 10 cases the perpetrators were identified – in 70.0% of the cases, the parents were the originators of such violence. It was concluded that further formation and orientation are necessary, in order to prepare dentists to act correctly when, during their professional activities, they encounter cases of violence against children and adolescents.

Dormancy breaking of the fig tree with hydrogen cyanamide and garlic extrate

The supply of cold hours needed to the dormancy breaking of shoots is the limiting factor for the cultivation of temperate climate fruit trees in warmer regions. In subtropical conditions, it is necessary to use chemical products to promote uniform sprouting. This research aimed at evaluating the effect of garlic extract and hydrogen cyanamide in sprouting, growth, production and production cycle of the fig tree. The experiment was conducted during the production cycles of 2011/12 and 2012/13. We used plants from the cultivar Roxo de Valinhos. Production pruning was made in the months of July/2011 and July/2012, and the following treatments were applied immediately after it: 2% hydrogen cyanamide and garlic extract in 4%, 8% and 12% doses, and a control treatment. Split plots were used as the experimental design, with five repetitions in blocks; each plot consisted of five treatments with hydrogen cyanamide, garlic extract and control; the subplots consisted of two production cycles. The use of hydrogen cyanamide promoted an anticipation of sprouting and the use of hydrogen cyanamide and garlic extract promoted a concentration of the productive period, when compared to the control. The estimated garlic extract dose that promoted the highest production per plant was 3%.

SCWDS BRIEFS: Volume 20, Number 2 (July 2004)

National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa, confirmed vesicular stomatitis (VS) in horses at one premises in Texas. As of July 21, 2004, infected animals were identified on a total of 45 premises in Colorado (11), New Mexico (21), and Texas (13). These are the first reports of VS in livestock in the United States since the 1998 epizootic. SCWDS VS Studies Chronic Wasting Disease Developments: nearly 118,000 wild white-tailed deer, mule deer, and elk were tested in the United States from October 2002 to September 2003, with 592 animals testing positive for the CWD prion. More than $38,000,000 was spent by federal and state wildlife and animal health agencies on CWD-related activities during this same period. The Second International Chronic Wasting Disease Symposium, hosted by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, will be held in Madison, Wisconsin, July 12-14, 2005. Crow Decoys Used in West Nile Virus Study Although Lyme disease caused by a spirochete bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, is relatively rare in the southeastern United States, a Lyme disease-like infection referred to as Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness (STARI) and thought to be caused by Borrelia lonestari, has been recognized in people in this region. The Ohio Division of Wildlife joined SCWDS as an associate member beginning July 1, 2004. The Final Report of the 2003 Hemorrhagic Disease (HD) Surveillance project has been completed and distributed to all cooperators. New of Caroline Duffie, Robbie Edalgo and wife Jen, Clay George, Darrell Kavanaugh, Lynn Lewis-Weiss’s husband, Dr. Kevin Weiss, and Nate Mechlin. New SCWDS staff include Brian Chandler, Jay Cumbee, Ginger Goekjian, Bill Hamrick, Sabrina McGraw, Kerri Pedersen, and Ben Wilcox. Recent SCWDS Publications Available

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

Epidemiology and population genetics of Podosphaera fusca and Golovinomyces orontii, causal agents of cucurbit powdery mildew

In 2010, 2011 and 2012 growing seasons, the occurrence of the ascomycetes Podosphaera fusca and Golovinomyces orontii, causal agents of powdery mildew disease, was monitored on cultivated cucurbits located in Bologna and Mantua provinces to determine the epidemiology of the species. To identify the pathogens, both morphological and molecular identifications were performed on infected leaf samples and a Multiplex-PCR was performed to identify the mating type genes of P. fusca isolates. The investigations indicated a temporal succession of the two species with the earlier infections caused by G. orontii, that seems to be the predominant species till the middle of July when it progressively disappears and P. fusca becomes the main species infecting cucurbits till the end of October. The temporal variation is likely due to the different overwintering strategies of the two species instead of climatic conditions. Only chasmothecia of P. fusca were recorded and mating type alleles ratio tended to be 1:1. Considering that only chasmothecia of P. fusca were found, molecular-genetic analysis were carried out to find some evidence of recombination within this species by MLST and AFLP methods. Surprisingly, no variations were observed within isolates for the 8 MLST markers used. According to this result, AFLP analysis showed a high similarity within isolates, with SM similarity coefficient ranging between 0.91-1.00 and also, sequencing of 12 polymorphic bands revealed identity to some gene involved in mutation and selection. The results suggest that populations of P. fusca are likely to be a clonal population with some differences among isolates probably due to agricultural practices such as fungicides treatments and cultivated hosts. Therefore, asexual reproduction, producing a lot of fungal biomass that can be easily transported by wind, is the most common and useful way to the spread and colonization of the pathogen.

Proposal of a Continuous Read-out Implementation in the ALICE-TOF detector

The main purpose of ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions is the investigation of the QGP. The ALICE experiment situated at the CERN has been specifically designed to study heavy-ion collisions for centre-of-mass energies up to 5.5 per nucleon pair. Extended particle identification capability is one of the main characteristics of the ALICE experiment. In the intermediate momentum region (up to 2.5 GeV/c for pi/K and 4 GeV/c for K/p), charged particles are identified in the ALICE experiment by the Time of Flight (TOF) detector. The ALICE-TOF system is a large-area detector based on the use of Multi-gap Resistive Plate Chamber (MRPC) built with high efficiency, fast response and intrinsic time resolution better than 40 ps. This thesis work, developed with the ALICE-TOF Bologna group, is part of the efforts carried out to adapt the read-out of the detector to the new requirements after the LHC Long Shutdown 2. Tests on the feasibility of a new read-out scheme for the TOF detector have been performed. In fact, the achievement of a continuous read-out also for the TOF detector would not be affordable if one considers the replacement of the TRM cards both for hardware and budget reasons. Actually, the read-out of the TOF is limited at 250 kHz i.e. it would be able to collect up to just a fourth of the maximum collision rate potentially achievable for pp interactions. In this Master’s degree thesis work, I discuss a different read-out system for the ALICE-TOF detector that allows to register all the hits at the interaction rate of 1 MHz foreseen for pp interactions after the 2020, by using the electronics currently available. Such solution would allow the ALICE-TOF detector to collect all the hits generated by pp collisions at 1 MHz interaction rate, which corresponds to an amount four times larger than that initially expected at such frequencies with the triggered read-out system operated at 250 kHz for LHC Run 3. The obtained results confirm that the proposed read-out scheme is a viable option for the ALICE TOF detector. The results also highlighted that it will be advantageous if the ALICE-TOF group also implement an online monitoring system of noisy channels to allow their deactivation in real time.