Regional Flood Frequency Analysis using Two-level Clustering Approach

Clustering techniques are used in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to partition watersheds into natural groups or regions with similar hydrologic responses. The linear Kohonen's self‐organizing feature map (SOFM) has been applied as a clustering technique for RFFA in several recent studies. However, it is seldom possible to interpret clusters from the output of an SOFM, irrespective of its size and dimensionality. In this study, we demonstrate that SOFMs may, however, serve as a useful precursor to clustering algorithms. We present a two‐level. SOFM‐based clustering approach to form regions for FFA. In the first level, the SOFM is used to form a two‐dimensional feature map. In the second level, the output nodes of SOFM are clustered using Fuzzy c‐means algorithm to form regions. The optimal number of regions is based on fuzzy cluster validation measures. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming homogeneous regions for FFA is illustrated through application to data from watersheds in Indiana, USA. Results show that the performance of the proposed approach to form regions is better than that based on classical SOFM.

High resolution facies record on late Holocene flood plain sediments from lower reaches of Narmada Valley, Western India

A high resolution quantitative granulometric record for site Uchediya 21A degrees 43'2.22aEuro(3) N, 73A degrees 6'26.22aEuro(3) E; 10 m a. s. l.] gives understanding towards accretion history of the late Holocene flood plain in the lower reaches of Narmada River. Two sediment facies (sandy and muddy) and seven subfacies (sandy subfacies: St(MS+FS+CS), SmFS+MS, Sl(FS+VFS), and St(MS + CS); muddy subfacies: FmSILT+VFS+FS, FmSILT+VFS (O) and FmSILT+VFS (T)) are identified based on cluster analysis supplemented with sedimentary structures observed in field and other laboratory data. Changes in hydrodynamics are further deduced based on various sedimentological parameters and their ratios leading to arrive at a depositional model.

Spectral-spatial MODIS image analysis using swarm intelligence algorithms and region based segmentation for flood assessment

This paper discusses an approach for river mapping and flood evaluation based on multi-temporal time-series analysis of satellite images utilizing pixel spectral information for image clustering and region based segmentation for extracting water covered regions. MODIS satellite images are analyzed at two stages: before flood and during flood. Multi-temporal MODIS images are processed in two steps. In the first step, clustering algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to distinguish the water regions from the non-water based on spectral information. These algorithms are chosen since they are quite efficient in solving multi-modal optimization problems. These classified images are then segmented using spatial features of the water region to extract the river. From the results obtained, we evaluate the performance of the methods and conclude that incorporating region based image segmentation along with clustering algorithms provides accurate and reliable approach for the extraction of water covered region.

Integration of speckle de-noising and image segmentation using synthetic aperture radar image for flood extent extraction

Flood is one of the detrimental hydro-meteorological threats to mankind. This compels very efficient flood assessment models. In this paper, we propose remote sensing based flood assessment using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image because of its imperviousness to unfavourable weather conditions. However, they suffer from the speckle noise. Hence, the processing of SAR image is applied in two stages: speckle removal filters and image segmentation methods for flood mapping. The speckle noise has been reduced with the help of Lee, Frost and Gamma MAP filters. A performance comparison of these speckle removal filters is presented. From the results obtained, we deduce that the Gamma MAP is reliable. The selected Gamma MAP filtered image is segmented using Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) and Mean Shift Segmentation (MSS). The GLCM is a texture analysis method that separates the image pixels into water and non-water groups based on their spectral feature whereas MSS is a gradient ascent method, here segmentation is carried out using spectral and spatial information. As test case, Kosi river flood is considered in our study. From the segmentation result of both these methods are comprehensively analysed and concluded that the MSS is efficient for flood mapping.

Regional flood frequency analysis using kernel- based fuzzy clustering approach

Regionalization approaches are widely used in water resources engineering to identify hydrologically homogeneous groups of watersheds that are referred to as regions. Pooled information from sites (depicting watersheds) in a region forms the basis to estimate quantiles associated with hydrological extreme events at ungauged/sparsely gauged sites in the region. Conventional regionalization approaches can be effective when watersheds (data points) corresponding to different regions can be separated using straight lines or linear planes in the space of watershed related attributes. In this paper, a kernel-based Fuzzy c-means (KFCM) clustering approach is presented for use in situations where such linear separation of regions cannot be accomplished. The approach uses kernel-based functions to map the data points from the attribute space to a higher-dimensional space where they can be separated into regions by linear planes. A procedure to determine optimal number of regions with the KFCM approach is suggested. Further, formulations to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites with the approach are developed. Effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in United States. Comparison of results with those based on conventional Fuzzy c-means clustering, Region-of-influence approach and a prior study indicate that KFCM approach outperforms the other approaches in forming regions that are closer to being statistically homogeneous and in estimating flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Key Points Kernel-based regionalization approach is presented for flood frequency analysis Kernel procedure to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites is developed A set of fuzzy regions is delineated in Ohio, USA

A recursive multi-scaling approach to regional flood frequency analysis

Scaling approaches are widely used by hydrologists for Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) of floods at ungauged/sparsely gauged site(s) in river basins. This paper proposes a Recursive Multi-scaling (RMS) approach to RFA that overcomes limitations of conventional simple- and multi-scaling approaches. The approach involves identification of a separate set of attributes corresponding to each of the sites (being considered in the study area/region) in a recursive manner according to their importance, and utilizing those attributes to construct effective regional regression relationships to estimate statistical raw moments (SMs) of peak flows. The SMs are then utilized to arrive at parameters of flood frequency distribution and quantile estimate(s) corresponding to target return period(s). Effectiveness of the RMS approach in arriving at flood quantile estimates for ungauged sites is demonstrated through leave-one-out cross-validation experiment on watersheds in Indiana State, USA. Results indicate that the approach outperforms index-flood based Region-of-Influence approach, simple- and multi-scaling approaches and a multiple linear regression method. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Flood Routing Models in Confluent and Dividing Channels

By introducing a water depth connecting formula, the hydraulic equations in the dividing channel system were coupled and the relation of discharge distribution between the branches of the dividing channels can be yielded. In this manner, a numerical model for the confluent channels was established to study the variation of backwater effects with the parameters in the channel junction. The meeting of flood peaks in the mainstream and tributary can be analyzed with this model. The flood peak meeting is found to be a major factor for the extremely high water level in the mainstream during the 1998 Yangtze River flood. Subsequently the variations of discharge distribution and water level with channel parameters between each branch in this system were studied as well. As a result, flood evolution caused by Jingjiang River shortcut and sediment deposition in the entrance of dividing channels of the Yangtze River may be qualitatively elucidated. It is suggested to be an effective measure for flood mitigation to enhance regulation capability of reservoirs available upstream of the tributaries and harness branch entrance channels.